Morning Digest: Democrats land first recruit for ultra-close Virginia district

"Silence won’t serve this moment," says James Osyf, a veteran forced into the shadows by "Don't Ask, Don't Tell"

Navy Reserve veteran James Osyf, Democratic candidate for Congress in Virginia (credit: James Osyf campaign site)

Leading Off

VA-02

Navy Reserve veteran James Osyf on Thursday became the first notable Democrat to announce a campaign to unseat Republican Rep. Jen Kiggans in Virginia's 2nd District, a Virginia Beach-based constituency that's one of the most competitive House seats in the country.

According to calculations by The Downballot, Donald Trump carried the 2nd District by an extremely slender 49.5 to 49.3 margin four years after Joe Biden won it by a not-much-bigger 50-48 spread.

Kiggans, a former Navy helicopter pilot and state senator, first won her seat between those two presidential elections by defeating Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria in 2022.

The new congresswoman ran ahead of Trump last year and prevailed 51-47 after an expensive race, and she's preparing for another pricey contest. Kiggans' team announced Thursday that she'd raised $900,000 during the second quarter of the year and finished June with $1.4 million in the bank.

But Osyf, who works for the defense contractor Lockheed Martin and was a leader at the LGBTQ group Out in National Security, thinks that Trump will be anything but an asset for the incumbent next year.

The challenger, who is running in a Hampton Roads district where many voters have ties to the Navy, begins his launch video by talking about how he was part of "the Silent Service" while he served on a submarine.

He continues by saying how he "stayed silent" when "Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell" was in force because it was "the cost of serving the nation I love."

Osyf, though, argues that silence is not what's needed now. The audience sees footage of the Jan. 6 riots and audio of Trump bragging about how he's "deployed thousands of National Guard troops" on American soil. A clip then plays of Kiggans saying she's supporting the GOP's budget bill despite warnings that it will cost millions of Americans their health insurance and hurt veterans.

"We need something new," Osyf says over footage of gas being used on protestors. "And silence won’t serve this moment."

Osyf, though, may face notable opposition in next year's primary.

Politico reported in April that national Democrats were trying to recruit former Virginia first lady Pamela Northam, though we haven't heard anything new over the ensuing months.

State Sen. Aaron Rouse has also been the subject of chatter about his future since narrowly losing last month's primary for lieutenant governor. Rouse, who flipped Kiggans' legislative seat in a 2023 special election, will not be up for reelection to his current post until 2027.

The progressive site Blue Virginia also writes that Del. Michael Feggans has been talked about as a possible contender. Feggans, though, has to focus on winning reelection this November in a competitive district he flipped in 2023.

David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot! We love what we do each day, but doing it takes resources. If you love our unique brand of election coverage, I hope you’ll consider becoming a paid supporter.

Zohran's pollster pulls back the curtain on how he won

2Q Fundraising

• GA-Sen: Jon Ossoff (D-inc): $10 million raised, $15.5 million cash on hand

• MN-Sen: Peggy Flanagan (D): $1 million raised

• NJ-Sen: Cory Booker (D-inc): $9 million raised, $19.6 million cash on hand

• AZ-06: JoAnna Mendoza (D): $436,000 raised

• IL-08: Junaid Ahmed (D): $350,000 raised (in one month)

• KY-06: Cherlynn Stevenson (D): $210,000 raised (in nine weeks), $170,000 cash on hand

• ME-02: Jared Golden (D-inc): $820,000 raised, $1 million cash on hand

• PA-08: Rob Bresnahan (R-inc): $888,000 raised

Senate

OR-Sen

Democratic Sen. Jeff Merkley announced Thursday that he would seek a fourth term next year.

Merkley, who was first elected in 2008, said that "with Donald Trump and his MAGA cronies working overtime to destroy the checks and balances of our ‘We the People government’ and shred programs families rely on, we’re in the fight of our lives, and I’m not backing down."

While numerous fellow Oregon Democrats were talked about as potential candidates for an open seat race, no prominent names showed any interest in opposing Merkley, who is 68. The senator is also unlikely to face any serious Republican opposition in a state that Kamala Harris carried 55-41 last year.

Governors

IA-Gov, IA-03, IA-04

Rep. Zach Nunn keeps trying to run for different offices than the one he currently occupies, but fellow Republicans keep getting pissed at him.

Nunn, who represents Iowa's swingy 3rd District, has reportedly been interested in pulling a Boebert and switching to the far more conservative 4th District just to the north. That seat is almost certain to come open because Rep. Randy Feenstra has strongly signaled he'll run for governor.

The possibility of a district swap was first raised by Jacob Rubashkin at Inside Elections a month ago, who said that "GOP strategists need to make sure Nunn runs [in the 3rd] instead of jumping to the 4th District."

Those strategists seem to have succeeded—at least partly. Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick relays that when Nunn presumably broached the idea, the "White House shot that down." But MAGAworld's displeasure hasn't yet dissuaded Nunn from looking for a different escape hatch.

Earlier this week, the Des Moines Register reported that Nunn had reversed course and was reconsidering whether to join the race for governor—an option he had previously rejected. Mutnick says that Nunn is set to meet with White House operatives next week to discuss such a campaign, noting that their "reaction could determine whether Nunn formally launches a bid."

Even if he gets a green light from Donald Trump's team, though, Nunn would face bitter opposition in the primary—not just from Feenstra but from some very deep-pocketed arch-conservatives as well.

"RINO @ZachNunn has one of the lowest scores among Republicans in Congress," tweeted Club for Growth head David McIntosh. "He’d be an even worse governor."

One unnamed GOP strategist also took a shot at Nunn's efforts to shop around for a more winnable race, telling Punchbowl's Max Cohen, "It’s surprising to see a man with his commitment to service and mission put himself above the House majority and the president’s agenda."

House

CO-01

Former corporate attorney Melat Kiros announced this week she would challenge longtime Rep. Diana DeGette in next year's Democratic primary, saying in her launch video that she wants to "be a part of a new generation of Democrats that won't rest, won't stop, until we finish the job."

Kiros praised the incumbent for having "done some really incredible work and meaningful work" in comments to Colorado Politics, but she explained her decision to run by saying that "we are just not living in a time where the methods of the past are going to work with this administration."

DeGette, 67, has represented Colorado's Denver-area 1st District—by far the bluest in the state—since 1997. She's turned back a handful of primary opponents over the years without much difficulty, with her closest race coming in 2018 when she defeated activist Saira Rao 68-32.

Kiros, 28, is the daughter of immigrants from Ethiopia and has never run for office before. She did, however, attract attention two years ago when she was fired by her law firm, Sidley Austin, after she reportedly refused to take down a blog post criticizing a letter signed by more than 100 firms (including hers) because it included "calling for … the elimination of the State of Israel" as an example of "anti-Semitic activities."

CT-03

Attorney Damjan DeNoble announced this week that he would challenge Connecticut Rep. Rosa DeLauro, an 82-year-old Democrat who plans to seek a 19th term, in next year's primary.

DeNoble, 40, told the CT Mirror's Lisa Hagen that, while he believed DeLauro has performed well during her long tenure, "it’s time to pass the torch." He added, "The Democratic Party has proven itself to be very bad at that."

DeLauro’s campaign manager responded to DeNoble's entry by informing Hagen, "Rosa intends to run for reelection and welcomes anyone that wants to run for the seat."

Connecticut's 3rd District, which is based in the New Haven area, favored Kamala Harris 56-42, according to calculations by The Downballot. DeLauro first won this seat in a tight general election in 1990, back when the 3rd was considerably more competitive than it is now, and she's had no trouble against any of her many subsequent opponents.

IA-04

Republican state Sen. Lynn Evans has said no to a bid for Iowa's likely-to-be-open 4th Congressional District after launching an exploratory committee in May—a good reminder that forming such a committee (which has no real legal meaning on the federal level) does not always lead to a full-blown campaign.

MI-07

Josh Cowen, an education policy professor at Michigan State University, has joined the Democratic primary to take on first-term GOP Rep. Tom Barrett, making him the third notable candidate to do so.

Cowen has made a name for himself in education circles as an outspoken opponent of school vouchers, especially the efforts pushed by Michigan billionaire Betsy DeVos. Already seeking the Democratic nod in Michigan's swingy 7th District are former Ambassador to Ukraine Bridget Brink and retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam.

NH-01

Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen publicized an endorsement Thursday from former Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat who led the state from 2005 through 2013. Shaheen, who is the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, is one of several candidates competing in next year's primary for this competitive open seat.

NJ-09

Clifton City Councilwoman Rosie Pino announced Thursday that she would seek the Republican nomination to oppose freshman Rep. Nellie Pou in New Jersey's 9th District, a longtime Democratic bastion that swung hard to the right last year.

Donald Trump narrowly carried this North Jersey constituency, which is home to a large Latino electorate, 49-48 four years after Joe Biden won it 59-40. Pino, whose parents emigrated from Ecuador, is betting that Trump's gains will last, and she kicked off her campaign by pledging "to work with President Trump to restore the American Dream."

Pou, a longtime local elected official who is of Puerto Rican descent, won last year's race to replace the late Rep. Bill Pascrell 51-46 against perennial candidate Billy Prempeh. Prempeh, who was Pascrell's opponent in 2020 and 2022, denied his most recent loss and is running again.

TN-07

Two candidates who'd been eyeing the forthcoming special election for Tennessee's soon-to-be-vacant 7th Congressional District have opted out, with both former Nashville Mayor Megan Barry, a Democrat, and state Rep. Aron Maberry, a Republican, saying no.

However, a different Democrat has taken a step toward a bid. State Rep. Vincent Dixie, who previously said he's "about 98.3% sure" he'd run to fill the seat held by Republican Rep. Mark Green, filed paperwork with the FEC this week. Dixie has yet to say, however, whether he's resolved his remaining 1.7% uncertainty.

TX-34

Army veteran Eric Flores is getting ready to challenge Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, Punchbowl News reports.

Flores, who is also a former federal prosecutor, has yet to say anything publicly, but Republican operatives reportedly "are excited" about him. The news of Flores' interest broke one day after GOP Gov. Greg Abbott announced that he had added congressional redistricting to the agenda of a special session of the legislature that's set to begin July 21.

Gonzalez won reelection last year in the current incarnation of Texas' 34th District, which is based in the eastern Rio Grande Valley, 51-49, even as his constituency zoomed hard to the right. Donald Trump prevailed here 52-47 four years after Joe Biden carried the district 57-42.

Legislatures

Special Elections

Local leaders in both parties have now chosen candidates for the Aug. 26 special election for a vacant seat in the Iowa Senate that could see Democrats break the GOP's supermajority in the chamber.

On Wednesday, Democrats tapped progressive organizer Catelin Drey, an employee at a marketing firm who also founded a group called Moms for Iowa, which mobilizes mothers to communicate with lawmakers about issues like gun violence and reproductive freedom.

A day earlier, Republicans nominated media consultant Christopher Prosch, who has worked as a political operative and communications strategist for a variety of far-right figures, as Iowa Starting Line catalogs, including now-DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.

Among other things, Prosch has falsely claimed the 2020 election was stolen; amplified conspiracy theories about the 9/11 terrorist attacks; has said rape victims should be forced to give birth to their rapists' babies; and suggested that abortion is worse than the Holocaust.

"Who was worse? The Nazi Germans who killed 10 million Jews and many other people?" Prosch asked on a podcast he hosts. "Or the left’s policies to target an entire generation of babies to death?"

The two will face off in the 1st District in the Sioux City area. The district has bounced back and forth in recent years, with Democrats flipping it in 2018 only to give it right back four years later. In 2024, it supported Donald Trump by a 55-44 margin, but Democrats are hopeful about their chances given their strong overperformances in three other Iowa special elections this year.