Morning Digest: Ukraine envoy who stepped down to protest Trump launches House bid

Bridget Brink wants to flip one of America's swingiest districts

Bridget Brink (left), who is the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, is now running for Congress as a Democrat (Credit: U.S. Embassy Kyiv Ukraine)

Leading Off

MI-07

Bridget Brink, a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, announced Wednesday that she would challenge Republican Rep. Tom Barrett in Michigan's 7th District, a swing seat that Barrett flipped last year. Brink is the first prominent Democrat to enter the race for this constituency, which includes the state capital of Lansing and nearby communities.

"When Russia ruthlessly and wrongly invaded an independent, democratic country, America stood strong with Ukraine," Brink told viewers in an announcement video, which features footage of Russia's attack.

After taking Donald Trump to task for favoring Vladimir Putin over the victims of his invasion, she continued, "Because of this, after nearly 30 years of service, I felt it was my duty to step down. So I could speak out. We must stand strong against aggressors."

Brink further pledged to stand up to domestic threats as well, including "unaccountable, unelected billionaires trying to slash and burn our government and undermine our democracy." That statement is accompanied by images of Elon Musk, including his infamous chainsaw.

The newly minted candidate is making her first run for office after a career in the foreign service that began in 1996 when Bill Clinton was in the White House. Brink continued her work under both Republican and Democratic presidents, and in 2019, Trump chose her to become the ambassador to Slovakia.

She was still serving in that post in 2022 when Joe Biden nominated her to be the nation's top diplomat in Ukraine, just months after Russia launched its unprovoked invasion. But while she initially remained in that role after Trump returned to office, she resigned in April and soon publicly denounced him for siding with Putin.

Brink began her campaign against Barrett by trying to preempt attempts to portray her as an outsider. The candidate grew up around Grand Rapids, which is located about an hour west of Lansing, and she spent her diplomatic career away from the state.

In her launch video, though, Brink highlighted her ties to the communities that make up the 7th District, informing the audience that her family arrived in Eaton County "[s]ix generations ago" and mentioning that her grandparents "met in an ice cream shop in Lansing."

While Brink is the first major Democrat to join the contest, she's unlikely to be the last.

The Detroit News reported last month that retired Navy SEAL Matt Maasdam plans to enter the contest sometime this summer, after the new fundraising quarter begins in July. At least three other Democrats are in the mix, including former House Minority Leader Donna Lasinski, whom the News says is now considering the race.

Morning Digest: Two new Democrats could challenge highly vulnerable Michigan Republican

The eventual Democratic nominee will be running to reclaim a constituency that has been very competitive both up and down the ballot. Calculations by The Downballot show that Donald Trump carried the 7th District 49.9 to 48.6 last year, while Joe Biden took it by an even smaller 49.4 to 48.9 spread in 2020.

The district has also hosted many barnburners at the House level. In 2018, Elissa Slotkin unseated GOP Rep. Mike Bishop in what was then known as the 8th District, a victory that made her the first Democrat to represent Lansing in the House in 18 years.

Slotkin hung on by a 51-47 margin in 2020, then won reelection to the renumbered 7th District in 2022 by defeating Barrett (at the time a state senator) 52-46 after one of the most expensive House races in the nation. Barrett ran again after Slotkin launched her ultimately successful bid for the Senate, but this time he defeated Democrat Curtis Hertel 50-47.

One key reason the 7th District is so politically volatile is the divide between Ingham County, a Democratic stronghold that's home to Lansing and Michigan State University, and voters in the other six counties. The district's dual nature is vividly illustrated in the map below:

(credit: Daniel Donner / The Downballot)

The largest county in the district is Ingham, which cast a third of the vote last year and where Kamala Harris scored a 30-point win.

Trump, though, offset that deficit by running up the score (albeit to a lesser degree) in two other counties: Livingston, which hasn't backed a Democrat for president since 1964, and Shiawassee, which supported Barack Obama twice but swung hard to Trump in 2016. Trump's smaller victories in the rest of the district allowed him to narrowly carry the 7th after falling just short four years earlier.

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The Downballot Podcast

NYC's messy primary goes down to the wire

We're diving deep into New York City's many-layered Democratic primary for mayor on this week's episode of The Downballot podcast. Polls keep showing Andrew Cuomo in the lead, but is it big enough to stop a late surge by Zohran Mamdani? Will Brad Lander's arrest by federal agents give him a last-minute jolt? And will we see any more alliances like the recent Mamdani-Lander cross-endorsement? We explore all these questions and many more.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Virginia's fascinating primary results, including why Richmond's former mayor did so poorly in his hometown. They then look ahead to November as Democrats display unity while the Republican ticket is in shambles. And finally, one of the winners of the Second Annual Downballot Awards is back in the news, and it's for a good reason!

The Downballot podcast comes out every Thursday morning everywhere you listen to podcasts. Click here to subscribe and to find a complete transcript.

Senate

FL-Sen

Public school math teacher Josh Weil, who lost a special election for Florida's dark-red 6th Congressional District in April, just became the first Democrat to announce a bid against Republican Sen. Ashley Moody.

Weil beat expectations in that previous campaign, losing by 14 points in a district that Donald Trump had carried by 30. He also capitalized on the attention his race received as the first House special election following Trump's victory in November to raise huge sums and spook the GOP.

However, an unusually large proportion of Weil's fundraising went to a 23-year-old fundraising consultant, and he only wound up spending about $4 million on the airwaves despite bringing in almost $14 million.

IL-Sen

A new internal poll from Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi finds him up 32-19 on Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton in next year's Democratic primary for Illinois' open Senate seat, with Rep. Robin Kelly at 14 and 31% of voters undecided.

The survey, conducted by GBAO, is the first public data on the race since Rep. Lauren Underwood announced she would not run last month. Earlier hypothetical polls had all included Underwood as an option and found her taking a substantial share of the vote.

House

NY-01

Former CNN anchor John Avlon hasn't publicly expressed interest in another bid for Congress, but Newsday columnist Dan Janison notes that the Democrat has "been visible at events," including a No Kings rally last weekend.

Avlon lost to Republican Rep. Nick LaLota by a 55-45 margin in eastern Long Island's 1st District last year as Donald Trump was carrying this constituency by a similar 54-44 spread. Janison, however, argues that the ongoing GOP war over deductions for state and local tax payments—known as SALT payments—could give Avlon a bigger opening.

Until recently, taxpayers could deduct all SALT payments from their federal taxes. But in 2017, Republicans passed a tax bill that limited such deductions to $10,000, a move that disproportionately affects wealthier taxpayers in states with higher taxes like New York, New Jersey, and California.

Lawmakers from affected states in both parties have repeatedly tried to raise or eliminate the SALT cap ever since, so far without success. The budget bill recently passed by House Republicans would increase the cap to $40,000, but earlier this week, GOP leaders in the Senate proposed a version of the bill that would leave the maximum unchanged.

That prompted a furious response from House Republicans in well-off suburban districts like LaLota, who posted on social media, "The Senate doesn’t have the votes for $10k SALT in the House." The congressman further warned that the Senate might "crash" the budget bill if it doesn't back down, which would lead to the expiration of tax cuts passed in 2017—and repeal the SALT cap entirely.

Janison cites an unnamed GOP source who suggests that even if LaLota and his fellow travelers fail in their mission, "the good fight will be appreciated by the voters." But Janison is less sure the issue will fade away if the cap doesn't budge, concluding, "Like margaritas, Long Island congressional races aren't the same without you-know-what."

TX-28

Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina, who said in March that he's "seriously considering" a bid against Democratic Rep. Henry Cuellar in Texas' 28th Congressional District, announced on Wednesday that he's forming an exploratory committee … to "consider a potential run for Texas's 28th Congressional District." (The post held by Tijerina, a Republican, is executive rather than judicial in nature.)

While politicians often talk about exploratory committees, federal law does not actually recognize such entities (though some states do), so there's no way to formally create one. FEC rules permit candidates to "test the waters" before they start campaigning, which includes activities like polling, but these regulations specifically exempt would-be contenders from filing disclosures with regulators.

As a consequence, there's little practical difference between a candidate who says they're looking at a race and one who says they've created an exploratory committee—as indicated by Tijerina's comments on the race, which remained virtually unchanged despite his professed shift in status.

VA-07

Republican state Sen. Tara Durant announced Wednesday that she would challenge freshman Democratic Rep. Eugene Vindman in Virginia's 7th District, a light blue constituency based in the southern exurbs of Washington, D.C.

Kamala Harris carried the 7th 51-48 last year, which represented a decided shift to the right from Joe Biden's 53-46 performance in 2020. Vindman nevertheless won his first term 51-49 after an expensive race.

Durant, who is Vindman's first notable challenger, is also no stranger to tough campaigns. The Republican won a seat in the House of Delegates in 2021 by ousting a Democratic incumbent 51-49. She earned a promotion two years later by turning in another 2-point victory in one of the most competitive state Senate races of 2023.

Durant launched her new effort by linking herself to Donald Trump, who, despite his gains last year, still failed to carry the 7th District. The lawmaker, who said she'd worked with Gov. Glenn Youngkin to "cut taxes, back the blue, and grow our economy here in VA," pledged to "help President Trump do the same in Washington."

Vindman, for his part, has spent his first months in office highlighting the Trump administration's draconian cuts to the federal workforce, an issue with particular resonance to his constituents. A report last year from the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service found that federal government employees represented 14% of the workforce in the 7th District, one of the highest proportions in the nation.

Vindman, a former National Security Council adviser who played a key role in the investigation that helped lead to Trump's first impeachment in 2019, will also have no trouble raising money to defend himself. The congressman finished March with $1.2 million in the bank, and he's sure to have stockpiled more by the time the second quarter concludes at the end of this month.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

With less than a week to go before New York City's Democratic primary for mayor, Marist University finds former Gov. Andrew Cuomo leading Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani 55-45 after ranked-choice simulations—the first independent look at the race since late last month.

The numbers also represent an improvement for Mamdani since the last time Marist went into the field in early May, when the school gave Cuomo a 60-40 lead. But notably, the new poll wrapped up on June 12, several days before the third-place candidate, Comptroller Brad Lander, was arrested by federal agents outside an immigration court.

Lander makes it to the sixth round of Marist's simulations, taking 13% while Cuomo edges out Mamdani 50-37 (without rounding, Cuomo's tally falls just short of a majority). The pollster also reveals that 11% of voters would have their ballots exhausted by the final round, since they declined to rank either Mamdani or Cuomo, while another 11% are undecided in the first round. In 2021, 15% of ballots were exhausted by the last round.

Other Races

VA-LG

Former Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney conceded the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor to state Sen. Ghazala Hashmi on Wednesday after falling just short the night before by a 27.4 to 26.6 margin. Hashmi, who emigrated from India as a child, would be both the first South Asian American and the first Muslim person elected to statewide office in Virginia.

Stoney urged his supporters to "rally behind Senator Hashmi and the entire Democratic ticket," which includes former Rep. Abigail Spanberger, who's running for governor, and former Del. Jay Jones, the party's nominee for attorney general. The three winners released a joint statement on Wednesday saying they were "united in our focus on the issues that matter to our fellow Virginians."

Republicans are … less unified. Following Tuesday's primaries for Virginia's three statewide offices—which were entirely uncontested on the GOP side—the party's candidate for governor is still not speaking with its candidate for lieutenant governor.

Conservative radio host John Reid, who's seeking the No. 2 position, told reporters on Wednesday he hasn't talked to the GOP's gubernatorial nominee, Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, in some time. When asked earlier this month when she'd appear alongside Reid, Earle-Sears responded, "Actually, as you know, we are all running our campaigns."

According to 8News reporter Tyler Englander, Reid said he was "disappointed, but adds he too will run his own race." The third member of the GOP ticket, Attorney General Jason Miyares, doesn't appear to have commented on the disunity since the primaries.

Morning Digest: Virginia Republicans are in disarray—just take it from them