Here’s my thoughts on this. Politics vs policy imo.
Politically, this is a very shrewd and smart move for Harris to embrace the tough border deal and move the Democratic Party further right on the issue. If she can start eating away Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, she’s far more likely to win. I’ve often felt that Democr…
Here’s my thoughts on this. Politics vs policy imo.
Politically, this is a very shrewd and smart move for Harris to embrace the tough border deal and move the Democratic Party further right on the issue. If she can start eating away Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, she’s far more likely to win. I’ve often felt that Democrats should pick 1 issue to break from our base on to help win more elections. Like Hassan’s last minute announcement of not allowing refugees relocating to her state. Or Peltola’s oil/gas support. Just 1 thing where you fit your constituents better, not your party, giving credibility to the voters who decide which party candidate wins every election.
Policy wise though, I despise it. But I also recognize, this bill is where a majority of Americans are, who want tougher border laws. Either center or center-right depending on your own political ideology policy in exchange for fixing the broken immigration system and Democrats hopefully winning the presidency is a trade I make every day of the week. Do I have compassion for those who will be negatively impacted like those showing up at the border? Yes. Do I wish they would be welcomed? Yes. Am I willing to risk a Trump’s presidency or Republicans in government on this 1 policy when I like 90% of the rest of Harris platform? No. I’ll swallow it and become a full throated supporter of the border deal bill.
Those voters stuck in the middle get two entirely different version of reality bombarded by both parties and I think you’re far more likely to get them moving to the center or right on a key policy issue then if you just went with the progressive mindset on everything.
Governing means compromise, so overall it’s her best move politically, but her worst move on policy.
Yup and this border deal bill support could open the door to undecided or Trump leaning voters to at least opening their ears to the rest of the Harris campaign on other topics. They may not end up liking it, but at least they could hear her out whereas maybe before they didn’t.
We don’t know exactly why, but at least in GOP swing voter focus groups, this is what has happened. Undecided voters moved to Lean Kamala and Lean Trump voters moved to Undecided.
Like I said, there’s no actual way to prove what exactly did it, but if I were a betting man, I’d say it’s because she moved to the middle and shed her previous progressive vibes and policy wise. She’s viewed as the more moderate candidate right now.
People who don’t vote on policy aka swing voters don’t want either a far left progressive or a far right conservative. Which ever party’s candidate successfully defines their opponent as more extreme wins the majority of the undecided voters. Trump won the majority of them in 2016. Biden won the majority of them in 2020. I’m hoping Harris wins them in 2024.
Again, I have no way to prove this, though. That said, 2022 elections wound up exactly as that, where Democrats successfully defined their opponents as extremists in a lot of swing seats with a Republican leaning electorate, which turned a potential wave into a trickle. So, I think this explanation fits well.
I’ll also add, this intuitively and evidence wise makes a lot of sense. Trump had been tied with Harris for some time, but now it’s considered tilting her direction. 2-3% doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but there aren’t a whole lot of undecided voters in the first place. So a 2-3% shift showing up in swing voter focus groups almost uniformly? Yeah, I can buy that being the case nationally.
On July 29th Harris was up 44.4-44.0% or +0.4 points up in the 538 average. Today she’s up 48.5-45.7% or +2.8 points up.
Well stated. I don't think I have to embrace everything a candidate does to support her, though. I will continue to oppose steps against people needing asylum as immoral and unacceptable.
That’s fair enough! For me, it’s a great way to show how extreme and out of touch Republicans are with average Americans so I’m going to continue promoting it even if I don’t agree with it. It’s pretty much the big issue I disagree with her on and it’s one where the Democratic base is out of touch with what the majority want, which is important to those few swing voters who hate both parties and always decide every election winner.
Joe Biden in 2020 had the different from Democrats, “old white guy moderate” to entice these voters esthetically to help win their votes in the middle or centre-right. Yes, people hated Trump, but against other Democrats who ran in the primary to the left? Maybe they don’t vote for them, stay home, write-in/3rd party or vote for Trump and he’s still president right now.
Kamala doesn’t have that esthetic to win crossover votes, so she needed 1 issue to break from the party base and moved her party closer to where the country is, to signal her independence as a “different Democrat” to try to win those crucial voters again. They were closed off to Biden due to feeling he wasn’t up to being president another 4 years, but now they’re open to hearing her pitch.
Also, I think we’re closer on policy then we think because verified claims of refugees should be and is accepted by Harris as the right thing to do. But it’s the lead up to those claims being proven where the disagreement comes from on the process. We agree on the end result though.
Here’s my thoughts on this. Politics vs policy imo.
Politically, this is a very shrewd and smart move for Harris to embrace the tough border deal and move the Democratic Party further right on the issue. If she can start eating away Trump’s advantage on the economy and immigration, she’s far more likely to win. I’ve often felt that Democrats should pick 1 issue to break from our base on to help win more elections. Like Hassan’s last minute announcement of not allowing refugees relocating to her state. Or Peltola’s oil/gas support. Just 1 thing where you fit your constituents better, not your party, giving credibility to the voters who decide which party candidate wins every election.
Policy wise though, I despise it. But I also recognize, this bill is where a majority of Americans are, who want tougher border laws. Either center or center-right depending on your own political ideology policy in exchange for fixing the broken immigration system and Democrats hopefully winning the presidency is a trade I make every day of the week. Do I have compassion for those who will be negatively impacted like those showing up at the border? Yes. Do I wish they would be welcomed? Yes. Am I willing to risk a Trump’s presidency or Republicans in government on this 1 policy when I like 90% of the rest of Harris platform? No. I’ll swallow it and become a full throated supporter of the border deal bill.
Those voters stuck in the middle get two entirely different version of reality bombarded by both parties and I think you’re far more likely to get them moving to the center or right on a key policy issue then if you just went with the progressive mindset on everything.
Governing means compromise, so overall it’s her best move politically, but her worst move on policy.
Valid points. Harris has shown she can be tough when she needs to be, especially on the issue of immigration.
Yup and this border deal bill support could open the door to undecided or Trump leaning voters to at least opening their ears to the rest of the Harris campaign on other topics. They may not end up liking it, but at least they could hear her out whereas maybe before they didn’t.
I'm doubtful about that.
We don’t know exactly why, but at least in GOP swing voter focus groups, this is what has happened. Undecided voters moved to Lean Kamala and Lean Trump voters moved to Undecided.
Because of her statements about limiting asylum?
Like I said, there’s no actual way to prove what exactly did it, but if I were a betting man, I’d say it’s because she moved to the middle and shed her previous progressive vibes and policy wise. She’s viewed as the more moderate candidate right now.
People who don’t vote on policy aka swing voters don’t want either a far left progressive or a far right conservative. Which ever party’s candidate successfully defines their opponent as more extreme wins the majority of the undecided voters. Trump won the majority of them in 2016. Biden won the majority of them in 2020. I’m hoping Harris wins them in 2024.
Again, I have no way to prove this, though. That said, 2022 elections wound up exactly as that, where Democrats successfully defined their opponents as extremists in a lot of swing seats with a Republican leaning electorate, which turned a potential wave into a trickle. So, I think this explanation fits well.
I’ll also add, this intuitively and evidence wise makes a lot of sense. Trump had been tied with Harris for some time, but now it’s considered tilting her direction. 2-3% doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but there aren’t a whole lot of undecided voters in the first place. So a 2-3% shift showing up in swing voter focus groups almost uniformly? Yeah, I can buy that being the case nationally.
On July 29th Harris was up 44.4-44.0% or +0.4 points up in the 538 average. Today she’s up 48.5-45.7% or +2.8 points up.
Well stated. I don't think I have to embrace everything a candidate does to support her, though. I will continue to oppose steps against people needing asylum as immoral and unacceptable.
That’s fair enough! For me, it’s a great way to show how extreme and out of touch Republicans are with average Americans so I’m going to continue promoting it even if I don’t agree with it. It’s pretty much the big issue I disagree with her on and it’s one where the Democratic base is out of touch with what the majority want, which is important to those few swing voters who hate both parties and always decide every election winner.
Joe Biden in 2020 had the different from Democrats, “old white guy moderate” to entice these voters esthetically to help win their votes in the middle or centre-right. Yes, people hated Trump, but against other Democrats who ran in the primary to the left? Maybe they don’t vote for them, stay home, write-in/3rd party or vote for Trump and he’s still president right now.
Kamala doesn’t have that esthetic to win crossover votes, so she needed 1 issue to break from the party base and moved her party closer to where the country is, to signal her independence as a “different Democrat” to try to win those crucial voters again. They were closed off to Biden due to feeling he wasn’t up to being president another 4 years, but now they’re open to hearing her pitch.
Also, I think we’re closer on policy then we think because verified claims of refugees should be and is accepted by Harris as the right thing to do. But it’s the lead up to those claims being proven where the disagreement comes from on the process. We agree on the end result though.
Yeah, if your asylum case isn't heard because they don't like where you ran to, it doesn't matter if Harris would theoretically consider it valid.