I’ll also add, this intuitively and evidence wise makes a lot of sense. Trump had been tied with Harris for some time, but now it’s considered tilting her direction. 2-3% doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but there aren’t a whole lot of undecided voters in the first place. So a 2-3% shift showing up in swing voter focus groups almo…
I’ll also add, this intuitively and evidence wise makes a lot of sense. Trump had been tied with Harris for some time, but now it’s considered tilting her direction. 2-3% doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but there aren’t a whole lot of undecided voters in the first place. So a 2-3% shift showing up in swing voter focus groups almost uniformly? Yeah, I can buy that being the case nationally.
On July 29th Harris was up 44.4-44.0% or +0.4 points up in the 538 average. Today she’s up 48.5-45.7% or +2.8 points up.
I’ll also add, this intuitively and evidence wise makes a lot of sense. Trump had been tied with Harris for some time, but now it’s considered tilting her direction. 2-3% doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but there aren’t a whole lot of undecided voters in the first place. So a 2-3% shift showing up in swing voter focus groups almost uniformly? Yeah, I can buy that being the case nationally.
On July 29th Harris was up 44.4-44.0% or +0.4 points up in the 538 average. Today she’s up 48.5-45.7% or +2.8 points up.