We don’t know exactly why, but at least in GOP swing voter focus groups, this is what has happened. Undecided voters moved to Lean Kamala and Lean Trump voters moved to Undecided.
Like I said, there’s no actual way to prove what exactly did it, but if I were a betting man, I’d say it’s because she moved to the middle and shed her previous progressive vibes and policy wise. She’s viewed as the more moderate candidate right now.
People who don’t vote on policy aka swing voters don’t want either a far left progressive or a far right conservative. Which ever party’s candidate successfully defines their opponent as more extreme wins the majority of the undecided voters. Trump won the majority of them in 2016. Biden won the majority of them in 2020. I’m hoping Harris wins them in 2024.
Again, I have no way to prove this, though. That said, 2022 elections wound up exactly as that, where Democrats successfully defined their opponents as extremists in a lot of swing seats with a Republican leaning electorate, which turned a potential wave into a trickle. So, I think this explanation fits well.
I’ll also add, this intuitively and evidence wise makes a lot of sense. Trump had been tied with Harris for some time, but now it’s considered tilting her direction. 2-3% doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but there aren’t a whole lot of undecided voters in the first place. So a 2-3% shift showing up in swing voter focus groups almost uniformly? Yeah, I can buy that being the case nationally.
On July 29th Harris was up 44.4-44.0% or +0.4 points up in the 538 average. Today she’s up 48.5-45.7% or +2.8 points up.
I'm doubtful about that.
We don’t know exactly why, but at least in GOP swing voter focus groups, this is what has happened. Undecided voters moved to Lean Kamala and Lean Trump voters moved to Undecided.
Because of her statements about limiting asylum?
Like I said, there’s no actual way to prove what exactly did it, but if I were a betting man, I’d say it’s because she moved to the middle and shed her previous progressive vibes and policy wise. She’s viewed as the more moderate candidate right now.
People who don’t vote on policy aka swing voters don’t want either a far left progressive or a far right conservative. Which ever party’s candidate successfully defines their opponent as more extreme wins the majority of the undecided voters. Trump won the majority of them in 2016. Biden won the majority of them in 2020. I’m hoping Harris wins them in 2024.
Again, I have no way to prove this, though. That said, 2022 elections wound up exactly as that, where Democrats successfully defined their opponents as extremists in a lot of swing seats with a Republican leaning electorate, which turned a potential wave into a trickle. So, I think this explanation fits well.
I’ll also add, this intuitively and evidence wise makes a lot of sense. Trump had been tied with Harris for some time, but now it’s considered tilting her direction. 2-3% doesn’t seem like much of a difference, but there aren’t a whole lot of undecided voters in the first place. So a 2-3% shift showing up in swing voter focus groups almost uniformly? Yeah, I can buy that being the case nationally.
On July 29th Harris was up 44.4-44.0% or +0.4 points up in the 538 average. Today she’s up 48.5-45.7% or +2.8 points up.