It recently occurred to me that despite my reputation for pessimism, I have never in my life predicted a Republican would win the Presidency....
I was too young to be in the prediction business for the elections of the 1980s.
Bill Clinton's victories in 1992 and 1996 were both easy to see coming.
Even in 2000, when Bush appeared to have the late momentum, virtually every poll in Florida showed Gore leading and I figured he'd win the Electoral College if he won Florida even if he lost the popular vote. Of course, the opposite happened.
In 2004, I was convinced the undecideds would break overwhelmingly for Kerry, putting Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Florida into Kerry's column.
Obama's 2008 win was an easy call by the time the general election cycle came around and his 2012 re-election seemed odds-on through the majority of the campaign.
I was warning about the potential of Trump throughout 2016 but still didn't see a path to victory for him even in the final days before the election as too many states seemed locked down for Hillary.
Biden's victory seemed nearly assured by the fall of 2020, even if it was much more of a contest than expected.
As of this writing, it looks like my Democratic Presidential prediction streak will end in 2024 but we'll see what the next couple of weeks bring.
The first presidential election I really followed closely was 2008. I've never predicted a Republican presidential victory either, but then again the Republicans have never won the popular vote in that time...
I never make predictions of presidential contests, but it didn't look the least bit hopeful for Dukakis. I don't think I allowed myself to think Mondale would lose until he did, and then by almost 50 states! But it was hardly surprising that he lost, and I understood that people who had voted for Reagan in 1980 wouldn't have enough of a motivation to change their votes, even though they should have. Carter also looked in bad shape in 1980. Since I was 15 in 1980 and wasn't even in the country in 1976, those were the only elections I was aware enough of to see in advance that they were unlikely Democratic wins. Every presidential election since 1992 has looked winnable.
The first presidential election I followed had to have been and hopefully remains the most unusual. I was about 10 in 1968, and my Dad had me following Nixon. Of course in the spring of that year MLK was assassinated, then Bobby Kennedy the night of the California primary.
My dad was a big Nixon supporter, but didn't get to vote for him. On Nov 1, he had a massive heart attack and was hospitalized for almost 2 weeks before he died. The day after his funeral mom decided to relocate to Arizona against me and my brother's wishes.
My brother and I both left Arizona at the first opportunity we had. I've been in California for 43 years, my brother in Illinois/Wisconsin for 50 years, and Mom in California for 3 years, and she likes California better.
My 3 older siblings were all leaving AZ after high school in the early 80's as well, but none ended up in CA despite that still being the promised land for AZ teenagers back then. I did come to CA, after college, for what I then thought was a temporary sojourn, 26 years ago now, by which time the huge net influx from AZ had begun reversing.
just an anecdote about CA: lived here for all my 79 years; a high school buddy who was badly poisioned by Agent Orange in Vietnam was living in FL when he contacted me out of the blue a few years ago. Said he had everything but cancer from Agent Orange. He wanted to leave FL (because of the weather) and I asked him if he was moving back to CA. Hell no, he said, their politics suck so bad I am going to live in a senior community near Lake Havasu, AZ: I love the fact I can carry a gun! He died 6 months after moving to AZ.
And Mom just cast a vote for Harris, Schiff,Min, and D all the way down, plus just took a cross country airplane trip by herself. I'll never get that old, lol.
My first was 2008 as well. I wasn't particularly interested in politics at that time (just a first year PhD student) but was stunned by how dimwitted Sarah Palin sounded during her interview with Katie Couric and even more stunned when finding out she was the VP nominee for a major party. That was when I started paying attention.
I was shocked by Palin's nomination as well, she made Dan Quayle look like an inspired choice. Thankfully by the time she was nominated I was both "Never GOP" AND already sure Obama was winning so I didn't ever have to sweat her proximity to the Oval Office.
I've wrongly gone through this thought process several times. My first election was 1980 (I was almost 22), and I couldn't believe people saw presidential material in Ronnie, let alone twice. Then W Bush came along who I thought was too stupid to get elected.
Then came Trump and he made Reagan and Bush look good.
Yeah, I never thought the late war criminal and plutocrat GHWB was a genius, but by comparison with Raygun, Shrub, and the Oval Office Orangutan he's a gentleman, a scholar, and a statesman.
Wouldn't we be dancing on the tables about a Palin Presidency if it was a choice between her and Trump? At the very least, I don't think Palin is a sociopath.
2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000.
That said, this country is in an electoral environment where presidential elections look likely to be closely contested for the foreseeable future. It's where our coalitions are plus the shitty rules that are in place.
"2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000."
Yes indeed. He ignored warnings so that he didn't prevent the worst single act of terrorism on American soil, promoted and decorated those who also ignored the warnings while firing some of those who gave them, and then attacked and occupied two countries, one of which had done absolutely nothing to the U.S. during his presidency. The fact that he was instead treated as the necessary protector of the United States whom it was unpatriotic to oppose should give us a lot of pause in predicting how a majority of the American electorate may evaluate Trump today. Remember, they're convinced the economy was better under his disastrous stewardship than during this historic recovery.
Fully agreed. It was bullshit that his incompetence made him more popular. But at the end of the day, that was the reality of it and it did boost him in 2004.
Considering how astronomically his approvals went up, I think in a kinder alternative timeline 2004 would have been a small wave in our favor, like 2008 was.
In politics, a lot of the time, perception is more important than reality; the perception about Bush Jr was that he was a tough Texan; yet, the reality was that it was actually Kerry who was a decorated veteran; I still feel that a more strongly response to the 'swift boating' and quicker was needed
Because the electorate has decided to pretend that COVID didn't happen. We can point out all we want that it did. They would and will continue to dismiss it as "fearmongering."
He made his share of mistakes but he outran the fundamentals of the cycle and wrestled Bush's approval ratings down at least 10% over the course of the campaign. I don't think he seems so bad in retrospect.
Huh. I've been voting since 1988 and the only election I really got wrong was 2016. I was 'who knows?' about 2000 and 2004, though.
Trump could win this year, but I don't see a reason to expect it. Harris has small poll leads (especially if you exclude troll polls) in enough states to win, and I don't expect Trump to benefit from a polling error again: the current generic ballot test is less favorable for Dems than both parties' spending patterns suggest, demographic creep should favor Dems (relevant when most polls are weighting to recalled vote), and Dems appear to have a ground game advantage this year after the pandemic put them at a disadvantage in 2020.
Great post; I think when all is said and done, the Democratic GOTV will provide a crucial 2-3% advantage in all 7 swing states(bringing them all into a possible winning sweep; with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania being key; the rest being icing on the cake)
It recently occurred to me that despite my reputation for pessimism, I have never in my life predicted a Republican would win the Presidency....
I was too young to be in the prediction business for the elections of the 1980s.
Bill Clinton's victories in 1992 and 1996 were both easy to see coming.
Even in 2000, when Bush appeared to have the late momentum, virtually every poll in Florida showed Gore leading and I figured he'd win the Electoral College if he won Florida even if he lost the popular vote. Of course, the opposite happened.
In 2004, I was convinced the undecideds would break overwhelmingly for Kerry, putting Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, and Florida into Kerry's column.
Obama's 2008 win was an easy call by the time the general election cycle came around and his 2012 re-election seemed odds-on through the majority of the campaign.
I was warning about the potential of Trump throughout 2016 but still didn't see a path to victory for him even in the final days before the election as too many states seemed locked down for Hillary.
Biden's victory seemed nearly assured by the fall of 2020, even if it was much more of a contest than expected.
As of this writing, it looks like my Democratic Presidential prediction streak will end in 2024 but we'll see what the next couple of weeks bring.
Gore won the election, the GOP stole the presidency, so you're 6 for 8.
The clear intent of the voters in Florida was to elect Gore; agreed
That one is going to hurt forever....
Tell me about it; I've lived in Florida for over 30 years; and that race still stings the most
The first presidential election I really followed closely was 2008. I've never predicted a Republican presidential victory either, but then again the Republicans have never won the popular vote in that time...
I never make predictions of presidential contests, but it didn't look the least bit hopeful for Dukakis. I don't think I allowed myself to think Mondale would lose until he did, and then by almost 50 states! But it was hardly surprising that he lost, and I understood that people who had voted for Reagan in 1980 wouldn't have enough of a motivation to change their votes, even though they should have. Carter also looked in bad shape in 1980. Since I was 15 in 1980 and wasn't even in the country in 1976, those were the only elections I was aware enough of to see in advance that they were unlikely Democratic wins. Every presidential election since 1992 has looked winnable.
The first presidential election I followed had to have been and hopefully remains the most unusual. I was about 10 in 1968, and my Dad had me following Nixon. Of course in the spring of that year MLK was assassinated, then Bobby Kennedy the night of the California primary.
My dad was a big Nixon supporter, but didn't get to vote for him. On Nov 1, he had a massive heart attack and was hospitalized for almost 2 weeks before he died. The day after his funeral mom decided to relocate to Arizona against me and my brother's wishes.
Quite the year.
How did things turn out in Arizona?
My brother and I both left Arizona at the first opportunity we had. I've been in California for 43 years, my brother in Illinois/Wisconsin for 50 years, and Mom in California for 3 years, and she likes California better.
My 3 older siblings were all leaving AZ after high school in the early 80's as well, but none ended up in CA despite that still being the promised land for AZ teenagers back then. I did come to CA, after college, for what I then thought was a temporary sojourn, 26 years ago now, by which time the huge net influx from AZ had begun reversing.
just an anecdote about CA: lived here for all my 79 years; a high school buddy who was badly poisioned by Agent Orange in Vietnam was living in FL when he contacted me out of the blue a few years ago. Said he had everything but cancer from Agent Orange. He wanted to leave FL (because of the weather) and I asked him if he was moving back to CA. Hell no, he said, their politics suck so bad I am going to live in a senior community near Lake Havasu, AZ: I love the fact I can carry a gun! He died 6 months after moving to AZ.
Did he die from the Agent Orange, or the gun?
Wow. Your dad must not have been very old. Had to have been horribly traumatic for you at that age.
45. Yes it was rather traumatic.
Mom just turned 98.
Good luck to your Mom
And Mom just cast a vote for Harris, Schiff,Min, and D all the way down, plus just took a cross country airplane trip by herself. I'll never get that old, lol.
Correct me if I'm wrong; she was in Pasco County??Maybe I am thinking of a different relative?
Orange cty CA
How many offices on your ballot?? Excluding judges??
9 offices, 10 propositions
My first was 2008 as well. I wasn't particularly interested in politics at that time (just a first year PhD student) but was stunned by how dimwitted Sarah Palin sounded during her interview with Katie Couric and even more stunned when finding out she was the VP nominee for a major party. That was when I started paying attention.
I was shocked by Palin's nomination as well, she made Dan Quayle look like an inspired choice. Thankfully by the time she was nominated I was both "Never GOP" AND already sure Obama was winning so I didn't ever have to sweat her proximity to the Oval Office.
I took a different tact with Palin; I just laughed hysterically every time she'd give an interview
I've wrongly gone through this thought process several times. My first election was 1980 (I was almost 22), and I couldn't believe people saw presidential material in Ronnie, let alone twice. Then W Bush came along who I thought was too stupid to get elected.
Then came Trump and he made Reagan and Bush look good.
What in the hell has happened to my country?
Yeah, I never thought the late war criminal and plutocrat GHWB was a genius, but by comparison with Raygun, Shrub, and the Oval Office Orangutan he's a gentleman, a scholar, and a statesman.
And a legitimate vet unlike those other wannabes
Wouldn't we be dancing on the tables about a Palin Presidency if it was a choice between her and Trump? At the very least, I don't think Palin is a sociopath.
trump won't win
The knowledge gained in 2016 that he can win should be enough to keep it from happening again, but that was pretty much true in 2004 as well.
2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000.
That said, this country is in an electoral environment where presidential elections look likely to be closely contested for the foreseeable future. It's where our coalitions are plus the shitty rules that are in place.
"2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000."
Yes indeed. He ignored warnings so that he didn't prevent the worst single act of terrorism on American soil, promoted and decorated those who also ignored the warnings while firing some of those who gave them, and then attacked and occupied two countries, one of which had done absolutely nothing to the U.S. during his presidency. The fact that he was instead treated as the necessary protector of the United States whom it was unpatriotic to oppose should give us a lot of pause in predicting how a majority of the American electorate may evaluate Trump today. Remember, they're convinced the economy was better under his disastrous stewardship than during this historic recovery.
Fully agreed. It was bullshit that his incompetence made him more popular. But at the end of the day, that was the reality of it and it did boost him in 2004.
Considering how astronomically his approvals went up, I think in a kinder alternative timeline 2004 would have been a small wave in our favor, like 2008 was.
In politics, a lot of the time, perception is more important than reality; the perception about Bush Jr was that he was a tough Texan; yet, the reality was that it was actually Kerry who was a decorated veteran; I still feel that a more strongly response to the 'swift boating' and quicker was needed
Definitely.
Because the electorate has decided to pretend that COVID didn't happen. We can point out all we want that it did. They would and will continue to dismiss it as "fearmongering."
John Kerry was not a strong candidate and succumbed to lies.
He made his share of mistakes but he outran the fundamentals of the cycle and wrestled Bush's approval ratings down at least 10% over the course of the campaign. I don't think he seems so bad in retrospect.
Huh. I've been voting since 1988 and the only election I really got wrong was 2016. I was 'who knows?' about 2000 and 2004, though.
Trump could win this year, but I don't see a reason to expect it. Harris has small poll leads (especially if you exclude troll polls) in enough states to win, and I don't expect Trump to benefit from a polling error again: the current generic ballot test is less favorable for Dems than both parties' spending patterns suggest, demographic creep should favor Dems (relevant when most polls are weighting to recalled vote), and Dems appear to have a ground game advantage this year after the pandemic put them at a disadvantage in 2020.
Great post; I think when all is said and done, the Democratic GOTV will provide a crucial 2-3% advantage in all 7 swing states(bringing them all into a possible winning sweep; with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania being key; the rest being icing on the cake)