2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000.
That said, this country is in an electoral environment where presidential elections look likely to be closely contested for the foreseeable future. It's where our coalitions are plus the shitty rules that are in place.
"2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000."
Yes indeed. He ignored warnings so that he didn't prevent the worst single act of terrorism on American soil, promoted and decorated those who also ignored the warnings while firing some of those who gave them, and then attacked and occupied two countries, one of which had done absolutely nothing to the U.S. during his presidency. The fact that he was instead treated as the necessary protector of the United States whom it was unpatriotic to oppose should give us a lot of pause in predicting how a majority of the American electorate may evaluate Trump today. Remember, they're convinced the economy was better under his disastrous stewardship than during this historic recovery.
Fully agreed. It was bullshit that his incompetence made him more popular. But at the end of the day, that was the reality of it and it did boost him in 2004.
Considering how astronomically his approvals went up, I think in a kinder alternative timeline 2004 would have been a small wave in our favor, like 2008 was.
In politics, a lot of the time, perception is more important than reality; the perception about Bush Jr was that he was a tough Texan; yet, the reality was that it was actually Kerry who was a decorated veteran; I still feel that a more strongly response to the 'swift boating' and quicker was needed
Because the electorate has decided to pretend that COVID didn't happen. We can point out all we want that it did. They would and will continue to dismiss it as "fearmongering."
He made his share of mistakes but he outran the fundamentals of the cycle and wrestled Bush's approval ratings down at least 10% over the course of the campaign. I don't think he seems so bad in retrospect.
trump won't win
The knowledge gained in 2016 that he can win should be enough to keep it from happening again, but that was pretty much true in 2004 as well.
2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000.
That said, this country is in an electoral environment where presidential elections look likely to be closely contested for the foreseeable future. It's where our coalitions are plus the shitty rules that are in place.
"2004 did have some critical things happen in Bush's electoral favor since 2000."
Yes indeed. He ignored warnings so that he didn't prevent the worst single act of terrorism on American soil, promoted and decorated those who also ignored the warnings while firing some of those who gave them, and then attacked and occupied two countries, one of which had done absolutely nothing to the U.S. during his presidency. The fact that he was instead treated as the necessary protector of the United States whom it was unpatriotic to oppose should give us a lot of pause in predicting how a majority of the American electorate may evaluate Trump today. Remember, they're convinced the economy was better under his disastrous stewardship than during this historic recovery.
Fully agreed. It was bullshit that his incompetence made him more popular. But at the end of the day, that was the reality of it and it did boost him in 2004.
Considering how astronomically his approvals went up, I think in a kinder alternative timeline 2004 would have been a small wave in our favor, like 2008 was.
In politics, a lot of the time, perception is more important than reality; the perception about Bush Jr was that he was a tough Texan; yet, the reality was that it was actually Kerry who was a decorated veteran; I still feel that a more strongly response to the 'swift boating' and quicker was needed
Definitely.
Because the electorate has decided to pretend that COVID didn't happen. We can point out all we want that it did. They would and will continue to dismiss it as "fearmongering."
John Kerry was not a strong candidate and succumbed to lies.
He made his share of mistakes but he outran the fundamentals of the cycle and wrestled Bush's approval ratings down at least 10% over the course of the campaign. I don't think he seems so bad in retrospect.