Huh. I've been voting since 1988 and the only election I really got wrong was 2016. I was 'who knows?' about 2000 and 2004, though.
Trump could win this year, but I don't see a reason to expect it. Harris has small poll leads (especially if you exclude troll polls) in enough states to win, and I don't expect Trump to benefit from a pollin…
Huh. I've been voting since 1988 and the only election I really got wrong was 2016. I was 'who knows?' about 2000 and 2004, though.
Trump could win this year, but I don't see a reason to expect it. Harris has small poll leads (especially if you exclude troll polls) in enough states to win, and I don't expect Trump to benefit from a polling error again: the current generic ballot test is less favorable for Dems than both parties' spending patterns suggest, demographic creep should favor Dems (relevant when most polls are weighting to recalled vote), and Dems appear to have a ground game advantage this year after the pandemic put them at a disadvantage in 2020.
Great post; I think when all is said and done, the Democratic GOTV will provide a crucial 2-3% advantage in all 7 swing states(bringing them all into a possible winning sweep; with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania being key; the rest being icing on the cake)
Huh. I've been voting since 1988 and the only election I really got wrong was 2016. I was 'who knows?' about 2000 and 2004, though.
Trump could win this year, but I don't see a reason to expect it. Harris has small poll leads (especially if you exclude troll polls) in enough states to win, and I don't expect Trump to benefit from a polling error again: the current generic ballot test is less favorable for Dems than both parties' spending patterns suggest, demographic creep should favor Dems (relevant when most polls are weighting to recalled vote), and Dems appear to have a ground game advantage this year after the pandemic put them at a disadvantage in 2020.
Great post; I think when all is said and done, the Democratic GOTV will provide a crucial 2-3% advantage in all 7 swing states(bringing them all into a possible winning sweep; with Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania being key; the rest being icing on the cake)