That's a sort of apples to (Florida) oranges comparison, as neither of those years featured a Republican presidential incumbent and both had GOP incumbents running for governor and senator. 2018 with its open gubernatorial race and Trump in the WH might be more valid, though that's not too encouraging here either as (IIRC) Andrew Gillum led in most though not all fall polling. (I still maintain that his nomination was one of the biggest recent self-owns by any state's Democrats.)
A lot of undecideds so this may have potential, though I'd certainly understand if Dems decide that Florida really isn't worth the effort and cost in light of recent electoral history, apart from some congressional and legislative races. This shows Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava as the Democratic frontrunner for governor; is she actually running?
2020 electorate also was the same as 2018, just Trump pulled his single issue maga voters out to vote. Florida Dems ran the worst perennial, vote missing, candidate possible in 2022 which led to a very bad turnout and DeSantis' libertarian COVID policy proved very popular among Latino workers and small businesses in Florida.
Florida was a top destination for illegal immigration as well as affected a lot by the post covid inflation. This along with Ron's popularity easily explains 2024. Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, Columbians and Puerto Ricans in Florida all voted for Democrats till 2020. Yeah more conservatives than liberals did migrate but older retirees pass away and Florida is more urbanized and diverse now. I believe Texas and Florida with Trump's unpopularity among Independents, young voters, Latinos and other minorities will be 2018 redux in 2026 with the races going either way.
GillumтАЩs primary win was irritating at first but then the polls made us look in a real good position to win. And then back to being mad. I get that FL is a big state but I wouldтАЩve hoped Gwen GrahamтАЩs ability to win in a red district wouldтАЩve resonated better. Instead, it seemed more like a hindrance and she wasnтАЩt from the main Dem bases in the other major cities.
The problem in 2018 was Dems just having too many candidates running in the primary, which allowed Gillum to win the primary with just 34% of the vote. This is one instance where a runoff would have been helpful.
They had some rich guy Jeff Greene running and he self-funded his campaign. He went scorched earth on Graham and Gillum came out of nowhere to win. Gillum turned out to be a terrible candidate with serious ethical problems who cost us the race and did us no favors in the Senate race as well.
GillumтАЩs subsequent arrest in a Miami hotel room with drugs and another man was disastrous for the FDP and the party still hasnтАЩt recovered from that. I was fortunate to see Gillum speak in person twice and he definitely gave off Obama vibes.But he had personal problems and never should have put himself out there as the face of the party. Plus he was dogged by an FBI тАЬinvestigationтАЭ into his alleged illegal purchase of тАЬHamiltonтАЭ tickets from a lobbyist. Pure BS but the GOP and press brought it up constantly.
The very same poll you showed with Rs leading a hypothetical 2026 gov race by mid single digit, had a link to its 2024 poll, with Trump leading 6pt. Quite wrong about the margin, except at least they didnтАЩt put Harris leading.
The links you put on 24 Senate race averaging Scott leading 5pt. He won 13pt. DeSantisтАЩ polls 10-12pt, he won 19. If you take this, these polls had even larger errors than previous cycles in 16-20.
The only thing goes for them, the contests there have become so lopsided, at least they wonтАЩt get the winners wrong.
The presidential election was so off because other pollsters were using the "recall" technique in Texas and Florida to make the polls look closer to 2020 which herded them. I did not present the presidential election polls at all and did not assume you were talking about that since Florida wasn't in play. 2022 polls did predict a landslide even though they didn't accurately predict the breadth of it.
Yup. We all know how polling works here. A bunch of polls looked like this in the 2022 governor and senate and 2024 senate races.
That's a sort of apples to (Florida) oranges comparison, as neither of those years featured a Republican presidential incumbent and both had GOP incumbents running for governor and senator. 2018 with its open gubernatorial race and Trump in the WH might be more valid, though that's not too encouraging here either as (IIRC) Andrew Gillum led in most though not all fall polling. (I still maintain that his nomination was one of the biggest recent self-owns by any state's Democrats.)
A lot of undecideds so this may have potential, though I'd certainly understand if Dems decide that Florida really isn't worth the effort and cost in light of recent electoral history, apart from some congressional and legislative races. This shows Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava as the Democratic frontrunner for governor; is she actually running?
2018 electorate no longer exists today.
2020 electorate also was the same as 2018, just Trump pulled his single issue maga voters out to vote. Florida Dems ran the worst perennial, vote missing, candidate possible in 2022 which led to a very bad turnout and DeSantis' libertarian COVID policy proved very popular among Latino workers and small businesses in Florida.
Florida was a top destination for illegal immigration as well as affected a lot by the post covid inflation. This along with Ron's popularity easily explains 2024. Venezuelans, Nicaraguans, Columbians and Puerto Ricans in Florida all voted for Democrats till 2020. Yeah more conservatives than liberals did migrate but older retirees pass away and Florida is more urbanized and diverse now. I believe Texas and Florida with Trump's unpopularity among Independents, young voters, Latinos and other minorities will be 2018 redux in 2026 with the races going either way.
GillumтАЩs primary win was irritating at first but then the polls made us look in a real good position to win. And then back to being mad. I get that FL is a big state but I wouldтАЩve hoped Gwen GrahamтАЩs ability to win in a red district wouldтАЩve resonated better. Instead, it seemed more like a hindrance and she wasnтАЩt from the main Dem bases in the other major cities.
The problem in 2018 was Dems just having too many candidates running in the primary, which allowed Gillum to win the primary with just 34% of the vote. This is one instance where a runoff would have been helpful.
They had some rich guy Jeff Greene running and he self-funded his campaign. He went scorched earth on Graham and Gillum came out of nowhere to win. Gillum turned out to be a terrible candidate with serious ethical problems who cost us the race and did us no favors in the Senate race as well.
GillumтАЩs subsequent arrest in a Miami hotel room with drugs and another man was disastrous for the FDP and the party still hasnтАЩt recovered from that. I was fortunate to see Gillum speak in person twice and he definitely gave off Obama vibes.But he had personal problems and never should have put himself out there as the face of the party. Plus he was dogged by an FBI тАЬinvestigationтАЭ into his alleged illegal purchase of тАЬHamiltonтАЭ tickets from a lobbyist. Pure BS but the GOP and press brought it up constantly.
Not at all, do check the General elections polls here.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida
The medicaid fraudster led by 5+ points in polls.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Florida_gubernatorial_election
DeSantis had a 10-15 point lead in polls.
This statewide Florida poll had Trump leading by 10- 15 points during his honeymoon, the drop is real.
You are rewriting history.
Few legit poll except NYT Siena had Trump leading by over 10pt in 2024. Most had it in mid single digit.
I was guessing a very high single digit and 1m vote loss. Was wrong, too optimistic!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida
The very same poll you showed with Rs leading a hypothetical 2026 gov race by mid single digit, had a link to its 2024 poll, with Trump leading 6pt. Quite wrong about the margin, except at least they didnтАЩt put Harris leading.
The links you put on 24 Senate race averaging Scott leading 5pt. He won 13pt. DeSantisтАЩ polls 10-12pt, he won 19. If you take this, these polls had even larger errors than previous cycles in 16-20.
The only thing goes for them, the contests there have become so lopsided, at least they wonтАЩt get the winners wrong.
The presidential election was so off because other pollsters were using the "recall" technique in Texas and Florida to make the polls look closer to 2020 which herded them. I did not present the presidential election polls at all and did not assume you were talking about that since Florida wasn't in play. 2022 polls did predict a landslide even though they didn't accurately predict the breadth of it.
DonтАЩt they weight the Senate question? DonтАЩt they weight now?