The very same poll you showed with Rs leading a hypothetical 2026 gov race by mid single digit, had a link to its 2024 poll, with Trump leading 6pt. Quite wrong about the margin, except at least they didn’t put Harris leading.
The links you put on 24 Senate race averaging Scott leading 5pt. He won 13pt. DeSantis’ polls 10-12pt, he won 19. If you take this, these polls had even larger errors than previous cycles in 16-20.
The only thing goes for them, the contests there have become so lopsided, at least they won’t get the winners wrong.
The presidential election was so off because other pollsters were using the "recall" technique in Texas and Florida to make the polls look closer to 2020 which herded them. I did not present the presidential election polls at all and did not assume you were talking about that since Florida wasn't in play. 2022 polls did predict a landslide even though they didn't accurately predict the breadth of it.
Not at all, do check the General elections polls here.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_Senate_election_in_Florida
The medicaid fraudster led by 5+ points in polls.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_Florida_gubernatorial_election
DeSantis had a 10-15 point lead in polls.
This statewide Florida poll had Trump leading by 10- 15 points during his honeymoon, the drop is real.
You are rewriting history.
Few legit poll except NYT Siena had Trump leading by over 10pt in 2024. Most had it in mid single digit.
I was guessing a very high single digit and 1m vote loss. Was wrong, too optimistic!
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_United_States_presidential_election_in_Florida
The very same poll you showed with Rs leading a hypothetical 2026 gov race by mid single digit, had a link to its 2024 poll, with Trump leading 6pt. Quite wrong about the margin, except at least they didn’t put Harris leading.
The links you put on 24 Senate race averaging Scott leading 5pt. He won 13pt. DeSantis’ polls 10-12pt, he won 19. If you take this, these polls had even larger errors than previous cycles in 16-20.
The only thing goes for them, the contests there have become so lopsided, at least they won’t get the winners wrong.
The presidential election was so off because other pollsters were using the "recall" technique in Texas and Florida to make the polls look closer to 2020 which herded them. I did not present the presidential election polls at all and did not assume you were talking about that since Florida wasn't in play. 2022 polls did predict a landslide even though they didn't accurately predict the breadth of it.
Don’t they weight the Senate question? Don’t they weight now?