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Ncsupack's avatar

#New General Election poll

šŸ”“ Trump 48% (+1)

šŸ”µ Harris 47%

Siena #A+ - 1695 LV - 9/6

https://x.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1832748813322191344?s=61&t=_oLmDamLuLVUMclqY2xEGw

When you dig into the cross-tabs it only shows Harris getting 71% of the black while trump gets 14%. When was the last time a Dem presidential candidate got under 85% of the black vote? I can tell you canvassing here in GA black voters are fired up and ready to vote for Harris.

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Ncsupack's avatar

The crosstabs in other demos seem plausible but the black vote seems way off. Am i missing something?

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

The age crosstabs are off as usual, too. If only 50% of voters 18-29 end up voting for Kamala Harris, I will eat my hat.

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

Two comments that I find noteworthy:

1. The New York Times writeup reports, "Democrats do have a slight edge when it comes to enthusiasm for voting: 91 percent of Democrats said they were enthusiastic, compared with 85 percent of Republicans." That's a good sign.

2. Buried in the cross-tabs, among voters who are self-reportedly "Almost Certain" to vote, Kamala Harris leads 49-47.

I personally think this is just a poll with a slightly more conservative samples than others we've seen. However, its crosstabs seem to indicate Kamala still has an enthusiasm edge over Trump. That gives me hope (although, as must always be said, Trump still can win).

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AWildLibAppeared's avatar

It's also worth noting that the poll has Kamala winning Independents by a sizeable margin: 48% to 44% in the head to head.

However, Kamala is still losing in the poll overall because 1. the sample contains slightly more Republicans than Democrats and 2. A slightly larger percentage of self-identified Democrats are planning to vote for non-Kamala candidates than Republicans are for non-Trump candidates. I'm a bit skeptical that either of these data points will be reflective of the final electorate.

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DiesIrae's avatar

They got a sample with a fraction of a percent more Rs than Ds in the raw data. They then did a bunch of weighting, which seems to involve things like past nonresponse bias, and end up weighting to an R+2 electorate.

I'm perfectly willing to believe that if the electorate is R+2, basically 2014 redux, then we lose. I doubt that's what the electorate will be.

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DiesIrae's avatar

And to be clear, I think they're overfitting. If you get more Rs than Ds, I'm not sure why you'd assume that the nonresponse bias is similar to past polls in which you had trouble reaching Rs.

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Mike in MD's avatar

If Democrats are just as or more excited than Republicans about voting (see also CBS/YouGov battleground state polls) then we probably don't get an R+2 electorate. And if Harris wins independents, even by four points, then she likely wins.

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Jonathan's avatar

I'm actually enthusiastic about polls like this; this poll shows a dead heat race, with what I suspect are hugely rosy numbers for Republicans(imo no way in hell is the current electorate R+2)

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Jay's avatar
Sep 8Edited

This concern was what led me to post the other day about the disparity between Biden numbers in solid blue states such as Maryland and California and Harris' current poll numbers.

Many people are saying Democrats are hemorrhaging AA support and different polls are showing this across different states. I know no one wants to acknowledge it here but I see a clear trend in different polls all showing weaker support for Harris than Biden had with certain groups.

Just because there is enthusiasm like we haven't had in years doesn't mean it's all from the same place and the short time table of the race may be masking the loss of support for Harris among AA voters anecdotally. I really believe that her numbers are not as strong with AAs as we are trying to believe.

Do I think she will end up with less than 75% of the AA vote? No. But anything less than Biden 2020 could be significant enough to swing the election under the right circumstances.

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Jonathan's avatar

I won't believe that AA number until I see real election results with that data; I haven't seen any actual election yet that would give me pause

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Avedee Eikew's avatar

Entirely possible the 2024 electorate looks different from the midterms and specials but nothing in them suggests the massive swings in the crosstabs with race and age. I won't predict much but I think the freakout over Gen Z men white or non-white leaping to the right from 2020 will be a dud and turnout will remain the bigger issue but we'll see.

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Jonathan's avatar

You made my point; but better

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michaelflutist's avatar

I agree. I don't think young white men have suddenly become more racist, sexist and anti-LGBT, and I'd be really shocked if a smaller percentage of Black voters vote for Kamala Harris than voted for Joe Biden. We'll really suddenly get slews of Black voters opposing a mainstream Black Democrat in a general election? Maybe, but it doesn't pass the smell test.

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Caspian's avatar

They're polls. Polls are garbage today. They certainly are not accurate enough to reality to read into any changes within a 10% margin.

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Jay's avatar
Sep 8Edited

A few weeks ago we were tripping over Republicans over-examining crosstabs, and now we have a quality pollster telling us there is weakness in the electorate for Harris and.... we over examine one crosstab to justify what we THINK will be reality on election day. It seems many of us don't believe polls that give us warning signs. This is a quality poll. We should not assume it's off base. There is a reason that with all of this enthusiasm we are seeing the race is essentially tied. Harris is weaker somewhere. My guess is it's a little of the white men issue and also black men but she is making up for it with overall youth and probably Hispanic voters. That is why she has almost never been ahead by more despite the enthusiasm.

Perhaps this "enthusiasm" is just where we should be anyway and we are perceiving it as "overenthusiasm" because everyone had been "meh" about Clinton and Biden. (In 2020 we didn't vote FOR Biden so much as we we got a real taste of Trump.)

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Jonathan's avatar

Actually I am doubtful of all polls currently; including this one

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Caspian's avatar

How do we *know* that this is a quality poll? How do we know that *any* poll is a quality poll?

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