This concern was what led me to post the other day about the disparity between Biden numbers in solid blue states such as Maryland and California and Harris' current poll numbers.
Many people are saying Democrats are hemorrhaging AA support and different polls are showing this across different states. I know no one wants to acknowledge it…
This concern was what led me to post the other day about the disparity between Biden numbers in solid blue states such as Maryland and California and Harris' current poll numbers.
Many people are saying Democrats are hemorrhaging AA support and different polls are showing this across different states. I know no one wants to acknowledge it here but I see a clear trend in different polls all showing weaker support for Harris than Biden had with certain groups.
Just because there is enthusiasm like we haven't had in years doesn't mean it's all from the same place and the short time table of the race may be masking the loss of support for Harris among AA voters anecdotally. I really believe that her numbers are not as strong with AAs as we are trying to believe.
Do I think she will end up with less than 75% of the AA vote? No. But anything less than Biden 2020 could be significant enough to swing the election under the right circumstances.
Entirely possible the 2024 electorate looks different from the midterms and specials but nothing in them suggests the massive swings in the crosstabs with race and age. I won't predict much but I think the freakout over Gen Z men white or non-white leaping to the right from 2020 will be a dud and turnout will remain the bigger issue but we'll see.
I agree. I don't think young white men have suddenly become more racist, sexist and anti-LGBT, and I'd be really shocked if a smaller percentage of Black voters vote for Kamala Harris than voted for Joe Biden. We'll really suddenly get slews of Black voters opposing a mainstream Black Democrat in a general election? Maybe, but it doesn't pass the smell test.
This concern was what led me to post the other day about the disparity between Biden numbers in solid blue states such as Maryland and California and Harris' current poll numbers.
Many people are saying Democrats are hemorrhaging AA support and different polls are showing this across different states. I know no one wants to acknowledge it here but I see a clear trend in different polls all showing weaker support for Harris than Biden had with certain groups.
Just because there is enthusiasm like we haven't had in years doesn't mean it's all from the same place and the short time table of the race may be masking the loss of support for Harris among AA voters anecdotally. I really believe that her numbers are not as strong with AAs as we are trying to believe.
Do I think she will end up with less than 75% of the AA vote? No. But anything less than Biden 2020 could be significant enough to swing the election under the right circumstances.
I won't believe that AA number until I see real election results with that data; I haven't seen any actual election yet that would give me pause
Entirely possible the 2024 electorate looks different from the midterms and specials but nothing in them suggests the massive swings in the crosstabs with race and age. I won't predict much but I think the freakout over Gen Z men white or non-white leaping to the right from 2020 will be a dud and turnout will remain the bigger issue but we'll see.
You made my point; but better
I agree. I don't think young white men have suddenly become more racist, sexist and anti-LGBT, and I'd be really shocked if a smaller percentage of Black voters vote for Kamala Harris than voted for Joe Biden. We'll really suddenly get slews of Black voters opposing a mainstream Black Democrat in a general election? Maybe, but it doesn't pass the smell test.
They're polls. Polls are garbage today. They certainly are not accurate enough to reality to read into any changes within a 10% margin.