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Oceanblaze17's avatar

I expect Fisher to win. NE-SEN-A will likely stay red.

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Darren Monaghan's avatar

Conventional wisdom would cause anyone to believe that, but it's definitely possible she loses in a stunner. Stranger things have happened and Dan Osborn is the strongest Independent candidate I've seen in years!!

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michaelflutist's avatar

What's making him stronger than Greg Orman was in KS?

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Jim Kane | Nonsensoleum's avatar

Smaller state (more easy to retail politic, more affordable to advertise), with a competitive congressional district/electoral vote overlap, outside a republican wave year (hopefully)?

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michaelflutist's avatar

I didn't realize NE had a lower population, but it does.

Per DuckAssist, whatever that is (top of DuckDuckGo search results):

"As of July 1, 2023, Nebraska's population is estimated to be 1,978,379."

"The population of Kansas was 2,937,880 according to the 2020 census."

I guess that makes sense, since KS has Wichita, Topeka and Kansas City, Kansas, plus a bunch of KC suburbs, whereas NE has only Omaha and Lincoln.

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Jim Kane | Nonsensoleum's avatar

Nebraska is about 3 points redder then Kansas тАУ but yeah, it's 2/3rds the size, and I wonder if having the population more condensed into Omaha and Lincoln helps at all.

I don't think Osborn is very likely to win, but I can see why he might be able to make them sweat in a way that Orman couldn't a decade ago.

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Jonathan's avatar

It would certainly make the GOTV focus easier, plus Tony Vargas running a strong race of his own

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Andrew's avatar

Maybe bc both Senate seats are up? Gives voters the option to be Republicans for one and then prove the тАЬindependenceтАЭ that so many voters claim to have. Plus, Trump at the top gives voters a lot of options to be Republican but also give that little slice of fuck all yaтАЩll. Throw in a touch of sexism from men wanting to vote for a man and there you have it.

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Wolfpack Dem's avatar

I feel better about Osborn than any of the other reach seats, probably even MT. Have a consistent inkling that something legit is going on with his campaign, and it's connecting with the electorate.

Then again, could just be gas. At my age, it usually is.

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ehstronghold's avatar

I've been fooled too many times to see a independent beating a Republican senator in a Red State. The other side of that coin is true too as Larry Hogan will probably find out in a couple of weeks.

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benamery21's avatar

Fischer is a real commie.

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Tim Nguyen's avatar

Even if Fischer's internals are to be believed, a 6 point lead for an incumbent in a state as rural and red as Nebraska is very weak, esp from an internal poll no less. Even if Fischer is the favorite here, I'd say it's Lean R at best. NE 02 will be highly competitive at both the congressional level and federal due to Nebraska's unique split electoral vote rules and higher turnout here should benefit Harris, Vargas and Osborn alike. Moreover, if Trump is perceived as a weak candidate and fails to excite his base, it's conceivable that rural areas will turn out less. Both scenarios are quite probable and would benefit Osborn.

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michaelflutist's avatar

I thought that NE's voters were actually highly urban, though granted, Omaha and Lincoln aren't huge cities, and I think a lot of small cities are included in the definition of "urban" in such analyses.

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