Even if Fischer's internals are to be believed, a 6 point lead for an incumbent in a state as rural and red as Nebraska is very weak, esp from an internal poll no less. Even if Fischer is the favorite here, I'd say it's Lean R at best. NE 02 will be highly competitive at both the congressional level and federal due to Nebraska's unique s…
Even if Fischer's internals are to be believed, a 6 point lead for an incumbent in a state as rural and red as Nebraska is very weak, esp from an internal poll no less. Even if Fischer is the favorite here, I'd say it's Lean R at best. NE 02 will be highly competitive at both the congressional level and federal due to Nebraska's unique split electoral vote rules and higher turnout here should benefit Harris, Vargas and Osborn alike. Moreover, if Trump is perceived as a weak candidate and fails to excite his base, it's conceivable that rural areas will turn out less. Both scenarios are quite probable and would benefit Osborn.
I thought that NE's voters were actually highly urban, though granted, Omaha and Lincoln aren't huge cities, and I think a lot of small cities are included in the definition of "urban" in such analyses.
Even if Fischer's internals are to be believed, a 6 point lead for an incumbent in a state as rural and red as Nebraska is very weak, esp from an internal poll no less. Even if Fischer is the favorite here, I'd say it's Lean R at best. NE 02 will be highly competitive at both the congressional level and federal due to Nebraska's unique split electoral vote rules and higher turnout here should benefit Harris, Vargas and Osborn alike. Moreover, if Trump is perceived as a weak candidate and fails to excite his base, it's conceivable that rural areas will turn out less. Both scenarios are quite probable and would benefit Osborn.
I thought that NE's voters were actually highly urban, though granted, Omaha and Lincoln aren't huge cities, and I think a lot of small cities are included in the definition of "urban" in such analyses.