Leading Off
MS-Sen
Despite a widespread belief to the contrary, Mississippi will not host a runoff in its race for the U.S. Senate this fall—something election officials have now clarified in a new statement.
Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces a challenge in November from Democrat Scott Colom and independent Ty Pinkins, who unsuccessfully ran for the state’s other Senate seat under the Democratic banner in 2024. Pinkins’ presence on the ballot could prevent either of the major-party contenders from earning a majority of the vote, but as Secretary of State Michael Watson has confirmed, only a plurality is needed to win outright.
The confusion over how the election will be resolved likely stems from two developments over the past decade.
In April of 2018, after Republican Sen. Thad Cochran stepped down due to health issues, then-Gov. Phil Bryant tapped Hyde-Smith, who at the time was state agriculture secretary, to replace him. Hyde-Smith then ran for the final two years of Cochran’s term that fall, but crucially, that race was a special election, meaning it operated under different rules compared to regularly scheduled races.
In particular, under Mississippi law, special elections are officially nonpartisan affairs that see all candidates run together on a single ballot. If no one earns a majority, then a runoff must take place.
That’s precisely what happened in 2018, when Hyde-Smith edged out Democrat Mike Espy just 41.2 to 40.9 thanks to the presence of a third Republican, Chris McDaniel, who took 16%. That prompted a runoff later that month, which Hyde-Smith won 54-46. But because this year’s Senate race is a regular election, runoff rules won’t come into play.
However, Mississippi did adopt runoffs for other statewide posts just a few years ago. Those changes were enacted to replace a system first imposed by the state’s 1890 Jim Crow constitution, which was officially enacted “to secure to the State of Mississippi ‘white supremacy.’”
That system required candidates for governor and other state offices elected statewide to win both a majority of the vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the state House. If no candidate won both the popular vote and a majority of districts, the state House would then pick the winner from the top two finishers.
That effectively allowed Republicans, who’d drawn the state House map, to gerrymander every race for governor. According to an analysis by The Downballot, Democrat Jim Hood would have had to win statewide by at least 15 points just to have a shot at carrying a majority of districts when he sought the governorship in 2019. (Republican Tate Reeves wound up winning 52-47.)
That same year, though, a federal judge agreed that this approach likely violated the constitutional principle of one person, one vote but gave the state the opportunity to correct it. It did so the following year, when voters approved an amendment to the state constitution in a landslide that repealed the district-based system and instead imposed traditional runoffs.
However, that amendment only applies to statewide state-level offices, including governor, attorney general, and secretary of state—the positions that were subject to the old Jim Crow-era rules. It does not affect races for the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House, the state legislature, or most local offices, where candidates continue to need just a plurality of the vote to win, though runoffs are used in some judicial elections.
The Downballot doesn’t just offer coverage of elections that almost everyone else overlooks. We do so with a love for democracy that most traditional media outlets would look down on. But without that animating principle, politics becomes nothing more than a game—and we know the stakes are far too high to allow that kind of cynicism to hold sway.
If you appreciate our focus and the values that motivate our work, we hope you’ll consider becoming a paid supporter. At our annual subscription rate, it works out to just $6.25 a month and comes with a bunch of great benefits.
Election Night
Delaware
Primary season finally comes to an end on Tuesday as voters in Delaware select nominees for federal, state, and municipal offices.
Neither Sen. Chris Coons nor Rep. Sarah McBride, who represent the First State’s lone congressional district, faces serious opposition in their respective primaries on the Democratic side, but there’s more action further down the ballot.
Gov. Matt Meyer, who will not be up for reelection until 2028, has aligned with the left-wing Working Family Party to support intraparty challengers to two Democratic state senators. Senate President Pro Tem Dave Sokola, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking reelection, responded last month by arguing Meyer was trying to punish members of the upper chamber for blocking parts of his agenda.
Bolts also has a look at other races to watch in Delaware on the last primary night of the year. However, there is still one state left where voters haven’t selected their candidates for Congress.
Louisiana’s Republican-led government this spring canceled party primaries for the state’s six U.S. House seats to give the GOP time to pass a new gerrymander. All candidates will instead compete in all-party general elections on Nov. 3 rather than in separate primaries, though contenders need to win a majority of the vote to win outright.
In any races where no one clears that threshold, then the two candidates with the most votes, regardless of party, will advance to a runoff on Dec. 12—a date that will formally mark the end of the 2026 election cycle.
House
Independent Expenditures
With Labor Day in the rearview, deep-pocketed third-party groups have finally ramped up their spending on the races that will determine control of the House, where Democrats need to net just three seats to take the majority.
To keep tabs on the contests that the heaviest hitters are prioritizing, The Downballot is pleased to share our new tracker of independent expenditures for the 2026 midterms.
As we have every cycle since 2018, we’re compiling spending reports from the four largest groups involved in House races: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the House Majority PAC for Democrats, and the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Congressional Leadership Fund for Republicans.
We collect these disclosures from these “Big Four” on a weekly basis and organize them by district. The first such reports from this foursome actually started appearing just before Labor Day, with a little over $3 million—mostly from Republicans—getting directed to 10 battlegrounds. Because we update every Monday, you can find that initial burst of spending on the tab labeled “Sept. 7.”
Efforts ramped up considerably in week two. Another 11 districts came online, with nearly $13 million more devoted to what’s now a 21-seat battleground. And in addition to our weekly updates, we also maintain a running total of all spending to date on our “Summary” tab.
The spending decisions these four groups make are the best guide to understanding which elections both parties see as the most competitive, since they’re guided by private polls and reams of other data that aren’t available to the public.
Of course, those decisions are never perfect. Sometimes even those with access to the most money and the best polling make mistakes. Even so, this information remains invaluable, as upsets, by their nature, are rare.
So far, we haven’t seen any major surprises, as both HMP and CLF telegraphed their intentions earlier this year when they announced $386 million in fall TV ad reservations. Some investments, though, stand out more than others.
In particular, southwestern Michigan’s 4th District stands out because, unlike the other 20 districts on our tracker, the Big Four have never spent there. But Donald Trump carried the district by a relatively slender 52-46 margin in 2024, and Democrats are excited about their nominee, state Sen. Sean McCann, who’s proven to be a strong fundraiser. So far, HMP has put in more than $660,000 while Republicans have yet to engage on behalf of Rep. Bill Huizenga.
On the other side of the state, meanwhile, Republicans apparently are not giving up on the 8th District, despite an epic debacle in last month’s primary. In that contest, an unknown engineer named Tom Smith who dropped out a month earlier nonetheless defeated a candidate backed by Donald Trump named Amir Hassan, likely due to Islamophobia.
CLF, though, still seems to think that Democratic Rep. Kristen McDonald Rivet is still vulnerable and has devoted more than $360,000 to the race. We say “seems,” though, because even though super PACs like CLF and HMP are tasked with winning majorities in Congress, they sometimes act at the behest of wealthy donors whose goals may differ. Notably, Democrats have yet to step in to aid their well-financed incumbent.
It’s also important to take note of what our tracker does not include. So far, you’ll notice that we’ve recorded no spending from the DCCC and NRCC, and unfortunately, that’s unlikely to change.
In June, the Supreme Court struck down a federal law limiting how much money political parties can spend in coordination with candidates, making independent expenditures no longer necessary. Consequently, there’s little reason for committees like the DCCC and NRCC to ever file an independent expenditure report again. We’ll keep those columns available, though, in case anything does trickle through.
We also don’t include the many, many other groups that are also putting money into House contests, including outfits like Trump’s MAGA Inc. That’s because our tracker is designed to give an overview of how the biggest players see the battleground. That picture can become cloudier rather than clearer if you add in more data, especially from groups with unclear aims.
We invite you to bookmark our tracker to stay on top of the unfolding fight for the House. And when we refresh it each week, we’ll also note any important developments in the Morning Digest.
AR-02
A conservative group has spent close to $420,000 to help Republican Rep. French Hill fend off Democrat Chris Jones in Arkansas’ 2nd Congressional District, a constituency the GOP gerrymandered after the last census following some well-financed Democratic efforts to flip it.
FEC filings from Committee for American Leadership, which Politico flagged on Monday, represent the first outside spending from anyone for the general election between Hill and Jones, a physicist and pastor. The top House super PACs for both sides have not reserved any ad time in the 2nd District, a central Arkansas seat that Donald Trump carried 57-41 in 2024.
Both parties have largely treated this race as uncompetitive even though the only two publicly available polls have found the Democrat with a small lead.
Jones, who would be the first Black person to represent Arkansas in Congress, released an internal poll in May from 2040 Strategy Group showing him defeating Hill 46-43. Hendrix College later conducted a survey in August for the website Talk Business & Politics, putting Jones ahead by a similar 48-44 spread.
But Jones, whom Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders defeated in a landslide in the 2022 race for governor, has struggled to convince major Democratic donors and outside groups that he poses a serious threat to Hill, the chair of the powerful House Financial Services Committee.
While Jones raised close to $1.2 million through June, the incumbent brought in roughly $4.4 million in his quest for a seventh term. Hill ended the second quarter of 2026 with an even larger $3 million to $200,000 cash advantage.
The GOP has held the 2nd since the 2010 Republican wave election, when Tim Griffin was elected to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Vic Snyder. Griffin retired just four years later, but another GOP wave helped sweep Hill to victory over a well-regarded Democratic rival.
While Hill had no trouble during his first bid for reelection in 2016, his next two races were closer: In 2018, he won by a 52-46 margin, and in 2020, he prevailed 55-45. But Arkansas Republicans, who had firm control over the state’s three other congressional districts, soon made the 2nd several points redder during redistricting.
Hill easily won in 2022 as fellow Republican Sarah Huckabee Sanders sped past Jones in the race for governor. The congressman likewise claimed his sixth term with ease in 2024 as Trump was carrying his district by 16 points.
Utility Regulators
TX Railroad Commission
Bo French, the Republican nominee for a seat on Texas’ powerful Railroad Commission, showed no remorse Monday over tweets he posted attacking University of Texas students of Southeast Asian descent that even some fellow Republicans denounced as racist.
“The establishment raised and spent $7 million against me in the primary,” French told conservative radio host Mark Davis. “Many of the people who criticized me yesterday were some of the same people involved in that effort. It’s no surprise that the less-conservative people in Texas are the ones attacking me.”
The outcry began Sunday morning after French shared a photo of students celebrating the Texas Longhorns’ upset comeback victory over the Ohio State Buckeyes in Saturday’s highly anticipated football game. French, though, was evidently disgusted to see these students, many of whom were of Southeast Asian ancestry, reveling in the moment.
“I heard UT graduation this year looked like this,” French tweeted. “I didn’t believe it. The problem is now obviously far worse than anyone imagined.”
The candidate fired off a second post soon after featuring the same photo, writing, “Like body-cams exposed criminals, social media is exposing how many Americans have been displaced by foreigners. It’s everywhere and far worse than any of us could imagine.”
French faces Democrat Jon Rosenthal this fall in a hotly contested race for a spot on the three-member Railroad Commission, which, despite its name, regulates the state’s oil and gas industry.
Some Texas Republicans were quick to denounce their candidate. Sen. John Cornyn, who lost renomination to Ken Paxton the same evening that GOP voters chose French over incumbent Jim Wright, wrote on X, “Are other Republican elected officials going to condemn the intolerance and racism, or look the other way while it becomes normalized. This is how great political parties self-destruct. Sad.”
But while some other Republicans like state House Speaker Dustin Burrows condemned French’s post, the GOP’s two most prominent candidates had other ideas.
Paxton, who headlined French’s campaign launch party last year, instead disapprovingly shared a tweet by Democratic rival James Talarico thanking Cornyn for rebuking French and calling on Paxton to do the same. Paxton, who did not mention French, instead wrote, “Only one person in this race has a history of dividing Texans by race, and it’s James Talarico.”
Gov. Greg Abbott, who stumped for French’s opponent during the GOP primary this spring, also refused to criticize him.
“A selective picture of Longhorn fans celebrating our biggest home victory-ever-actually shows a way that Texans unite,” the governor, who is seeking reelection, said in a statement that also did not reference French. “That doesn’t mean that Texas cannot also lead in having the toughest immigration laws of any state in America and freezing H1B visas at our universities.”
Rosenthal, though, argued Abbott had it right back in May when he unsuccessfully warned Republicans that French’s “agenda would wreck the miracle that we have in producing more oil and gas than ever before.”
“I spent 25 years as an oil and gas engineer. Bo French spent Sunday morning sorting our student section by skin color,” Rosenthal wrote. “Greg Abbott said Bo French would ‘wreck’ our oil and gas industry. A man who can’t tell a Longhorn from a foreigner has no business regulating anything in TX.”
Rosenthal, a member of the state House, is aiming to be the first Democrat to serve on the Railroad Commission of Texas, which goes by the abbreviation RRC, in more than three decades.
Republicans have controlled all three seats on the body since the 1994 election, and they’ve beaten back Democratic attempts to make inroads. Members of the panel—which hasn’t had any jurisdiction over train travel since 2005—are elected statewide for six-year terms, with one seat on the ballot each election cycle.
But while candidates for utility regulating bodies like the RRC have long been overshadowed by contenders for offices higher up the ballot, races like these have started to draw considerably more notice at a time when issues like soaring electricity bills and the proliferation of data centers have become some of the most high-profile topics in American politics.
Georgia Democrats in particular are optimistic that they can take control of their state’s Public Service Commission, a GOP-dominated body with duties comparable to Texas’ RRC, this fall.
Meanwhile, Arizona Democrats are in the midst of a multi-year push to win the Corporation Commission, which has often been nicknamed that state’s “fourth branch of government.” Clean energy advocates in eastern Nebraska are also campaigning to take control of the Omaha Public Power District, a publicly owned utility that serves more than 900,000 people across a 13-county region.
French, though, has drawn infamy well outside of Texas—and for reasons having nothing to do with energy regulation.
French was serving as party chair for Tarrant County, a populous community home to Fort Worth, in June of last year when he posted a poll to X asking whether “Jews” or “Muslims” were “a bigger threat to America.”
He characteristically ignored calls from fellow Republicans for his resignation and only stepped down in November when he decided to oppose Wright for renomination. The challenger spent the ensuing months spreading an Islamophobic message and calling for the deportation of up to 100 million.
Wright warned that French was the wrong person to serve on the RRC, telling the New York Times this spring, “[T]his really isn’t a political office. This is a regulatory office.” GOP voters disagreed, though, ousting Wright by a tight 50.5 to 49.5 margin in a May runoff.
French has continued to use the general election to promote bigotry toward many Americans. The Republican has attacked Rosenthal for wearing a facemask in 2021 emblazoned with the words “Protect Trans Kids,” as well as for recognizing Pride Month.
Rosenthal, for his part, argues voters have other things on their minds as they decide who should be on the RRC.
“[T]hey’re worried about our energy grid, they’re worried about our electric bills, they’re worried about pollution,” he told the Texas Tribune in June. He added, “I personally wish for a world where government just goes back to being boring and doing their dang job.”
Poll Pile
All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
NE-Sen: SurveyUSA for Grant Forbes, LLC:
Dan Osborn (I): 46, Pete Ricketts (R-inc): 42.
Grant Forbes, a firm that works with Democrats in Pennsylvania, tells The Downballot that it is not involved in any Nebraska campaigns and commissioned the poll for its own interest.
NH-Sen: co/efficient:
Chris Pappas (D): 46, John Sununu (R): 46.
Co/efficient, a Republican firm, says this poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee, or other independent expenditure.”
NE-Gov: SurveyUSA:
Jim Pillen (R-inc): 43, Lynne Walz (D): 35, other: 13%.
The poll did not name Brett Lindstrom, the nominee of the America First Party. Respondents were instead asked if they support “Another Candidate.”
NH-Gov: co/efficient:
Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 55, Cinde Warmington (D): 34.
FL-27: Bendixen & Amandi International for the DCCC:
Eliott Rodriguez (D): 45, Maria Elvira Salazar (R-inc): 45.
"'Michigan Republican Senate candidate Mike Rogers will not attend a debate held by a local television station Tuesday over suspicions that the event’s moderator has ‘bias and favoritism’ toward his Democratic opponent, Abdul El-Sayed, Rogers’ campaign said in a news release,' the Washington Sun reports."
Sounds like a candidate who definitely isn't scared.
I don't blame him. El-Sayed vs Rogers in a debate is like a hydrogen bomb vs a coughing baby.
NC-1: House Majority PAC (Davis internal)
Don Davis (D-inc) 50%
Laurie Buckhout (R) 43%
Trump +11 in 2024