Leading Off
PA-01
Pennsylvania Democrat Bob Harvie is using his first ad of the general election to attack Republican Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick over data centers, a topic Fitzpatrick has never had to address during any of his prior campaigns.
“Big tech is taking over our lives, and they want more,” says Harvie, a member of the Bucks County Board of Commissioners, as he narrates the spot. As the audience sees footage of Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg, the candidate continues by declaring that these forces are “grabbing our land, water, electricity, and sticking us with the bill.”
The challenger then turns his attention to Fitzpatrick, who is seeking his sixth term representing the swingy 1st Congressional District outside of Philadelphia.
“Tech got Brian Fitzpatrick too,” Harvie says. “After taking their money, Fitzpatrick voted for $20 million in data center giveaways and made it impossible for communities like ours to stop new data centers.” After calling for “a moratorium,” the Democrat concludes, “Big tech owns enough. They shouldn’t own our congressman, too.”
Harvie’s ad, which comes as Amazon is in the midst of building a 250-acre hyperscale data center in the 1st District, is one of many hitting the airwaves this year on the topic, which has recently surged in salience.
Until last year, data centers had seldom been a potent campaign issue. One rare exception came in 2023 during the Democratic primary in the race to lead Prince William County, Virginia.
Deshundra Jefferson, a first-time candidate, scored an upset win over Ann Wheeler, the chair of the Board of County Supervisors, in a contest that saw the incumbent’s support for a major project known as the “Digital Gateway” turn into a political liability. (After years of persistent opposition, the effort finally died this summer.)
Data centers, however, largely remained in the background in much of the country—until Donald Trump returned to the White House. And ever since, they’ve become a major political liability.
In explaining his landslide victory for a seat on Georgia’s Public Service Commission last year, Democrat Peter Hubbard told Wired that the “number one issue” he heard about from voters was “affordability” in the face of soaring electricity bills.
“But a very close second,” he continued, “was data centers and the concern around them just sucking up the water, the electricity, the land—and not really paying any taxes.”
Opposition to data centers swiftly became a major issue in primaries this year, especially among Democrats determined to set themselves apart from their intraparty rivals. It also played a role in some Republican races, though. Utah Senate President Stuart Adams, notably, lost renomination to challenger Stephanie Hollist, who faulted Adams for supporting the construction of a controversial 20,000-acre complex.
During the general election, however, Democrats have been far more aggressive in tying Republicans to unpopular projects. AdImpact said in late August that Democrats had been responsible for about three-quarters of all commercials about data centers to date, and nearly every ad on the subject from both parties has framed it negatively.
Some Republicans have tried to turn the issue around by portraying Democrats as the ones who want to force such plans on unwilling Americans, but the nation’s top Republican has other ideas.
“The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want Data Centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor,” Trump wrote on Truth Social last week. “If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign.”
Polls, though, show that Americans overwhelmingly don’t want data to reign anywhere near them. A recent national survey from YouGov found 61% of Americans saying they oppose “a new data center being built in your community,” including 46% who say they “strongly oppose” such projects. Just 22% expressed support.
Harvie is hoping voter antipathy will give him a lift against Fitzpatrick, but the congressman has other ideas. Fitzpatrick responded to his opponent’s new commercial with a digital ad dubbing Harvie “Bucks County’s #1 fan of data centers.”
Harvie, HuffPost notes, praised an announcement from Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro about Amazon’s plan to build in Bucks County, tweeting, “New revenue from this project will directly support our schools, infrastructure, and will help our local economy thrive for years to come.”
Harvie, though, argues that Fitzpatrick failed to stand up to the tech industry when he had the chance.
Last year, the Republican voted against Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” when it reached the House floor, but Politico notes he helped move the plan along. The legislation included financial incentives to build in designated “Opportunity Zones,” which Republicans have said could be used to spur data center construction.
Harvie is counting on voters to agree that it’s finally time to eject Fitzpatrick, who has regularly outperformed the top of the GOP ticket in both midterm and presidential years.
The congressman was elected in 2016 to replace his older brother, Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick, after his sibling retired. He quickly emulated his brother by cultivating a centrist image while still largely voting for his party’s agenda. Democrats came close to defeating the new incumbent in 2018 during Trump’s first midterm, but he prevailed 51-49 even as Trump’s unpopularity dragged down battle-tested Republicans in many other races.
Fitzpatrick went on to win his next three elections with ease, culminating in his 56-43 victory in 2024 even though Kamala Harris narrowly carried the 1st District by a tight 49.7 to 49.4 spread.
Trump’s sinking approval ratings and Harvie’s prominence give Democrats their best chance to take down Fitzpatrick since the last blue wave, but the incumbent remains a formidable opponent.
Fitzpatrick has secured endorsements from traditionally Democratic constituencies like environmental groups and unions, and he also enjoys a massive fundraising advantage. The congressman ended June with close to $6.4 million in the bank, a figure that dwarfed the roughly $800,000 Harvie had available.
The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC in April reserved around $13 million in ad time in the Philadelphia media market that could be used to target Fitzpatrick, but it remains to be seen how much it will direct to the race. At least some of these bookings will likely be used to aid Democrat Bob Brooks against Republican Rep. Ryan Mackenzie in the neighboring 7th District, one of the swingiest House districts in the nation.
HMP, though, gave Harvie reason to be optimistic about its interest in his race last month when it released an internal poll showing Fitzpatrick ahead just 49-48. That survey from GQR became public shortly after Harvie published his own poll from Global Strategy Group, giving the incumbent a slightly larger 47-43 edge. Neither Republicans nor nonpartisan groups have released any polls of this race.
To make The Downballot sustainable for the long term, we’re going to need to hire a third writer. But to do that, we’ll need to reach at least 4,000 paid subscribers by the end of this year. It’s still a doable goal—we’re currently at 3,567—but growth has unfortunately tailed off lately.
If you’re in a position where you can consider upgrading to a premium subscription, we’d be truly grateful if you’d do so. It’s just $9 a month or an even cheaper $75 a year. At our annual rate, that works out to only $6.25 a month—truly a steal, and a steal for a good cause!
Redistricting Roundup
MO Redistrict, MO Ballot
The Supreme Court on Thursday morning stayed a federal district court ruling that had directed Missouri officials not to use any congressional map for the November elections other than a new Republican-drawn gerrymander, meaning that the midterms will be held under the lines in place in both 2022 and 2024.
In separate proceedings that afternoon, the Missouri Supreme Court found Republican Secretary of State Denny Hoskins in contempt for seeking to move forward using the GOP map, even though the justices ruled last week that it had never taken legal effect because opponents successfully qualified a referendum seeking to repeal it.
However, Chief Justice Brent Powell also said that Hoskins had “corrected his contemptuous conduct” by instructing local election officials to use the previous map. Because of that, in a written order issued later on Thursday, the court declined to punish Hoskins.
As a result of the Supreme Court’s decision, which was issued without objections from any justices, Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver will be the heavy favorite to win a 12th term in the 5th Congressional District, the chief target of the GOP’s gerrymander. Republican Rep. Ann Wagner will also face a more difficult race against Democrat Fred Wellman in the conservative 2nd District, which Republicans tried to make redder.
The GOP-led legal challenge over the maps will continue before the lower federal courts, but there’s no chance it could upend the status quo before Election Day since ballots are about to be printed. And given the Supreme Court’s disdain—Justice Brett Kavanaugh rejected similar arguments on Tuesday—it’s unlikely to succeed even if Republicans keep pursuing it.
Voters will also have the chance to permanently reject the GOP map in November when the repeal referendum, now designated Proposition A, appears on the ballot. The only poll of the measure, however, shows that many voters have yet to make up their minds. A survey late last month conducted by St. Louis University and YouGov found 35% in favor of the map, 32% opposed, and 33% unsure. “No” must win a majority for the repeal to succeed.
According to the most recent fundraising reports, the map’s opponents have a sizable financial advantage—and that’s only likely to grow following their legal victories. As of June 30, People Not Politicians reported raising $7.2 million and had more than $500,000 in the bank, while Put Missouri First, the main group supporting the map, brought in $3.1 million and had just $92,000 on hand.
House
CA-40
Rep. Young Kim released an internal poll from Public Opinion Strategies on Thursday showing her with a tiny 35-34 deficit against Rep. Ken Calvert as the two Republicans head toward a rare incumbent vs. incumbent general election.
In June’s top-two primary for California’s 40th District, Calvert led Kim 35-21, while the top Democrat, Esther Kim-Varet, was shut out after taking 17%. Democrats had deliberately made the district redder when they redrew the congressional map last year so that other nearby districts in Southern California could become more Democratic—a transformation that helped explain why Kim-Varet was unable to advance.
Kim, though, appears to be trying to appeal to Democratic voters who now lack a candidate of their own. While both incumbents spent the primary arguing over which of them was the truest ally of Donald Trump, Politico reported this week that Kim recently removed all mentions of MAGA’s master from the front page of her website.
A spokesperson for Kim denied that she was distancing herself from Trump, who has not taken sides in what’s now one of the few remaining races in the nation between two Republicans. (Louisiana will hold all-party primaries for the U.S. House on Nov. 3 following the passage of its new GOP-drawn gerrymander.)
Calvert, for his part, still prominently features Trump on his campaign site. His team also informed the Los Angeles Times that he went to Texas for Trump’s midterm convention this week, an event Kim opted not to attend.
Calvert’s backers, though, aren’t emphasizing Trump quite so much in their own messaging. Both the Times and Politico note that an allied super PAC hasn’t mentioned Trump in any general election ads.
But while Trump has maintained his public neutrality, Calvert has one prominent figure in his corner. Steve Hilton, the Republican candidate for governor, endorsed the congressman in July.
There’s been no independent polling of the general election between Calvert, who has represented a variety of communities in and around Riverside County since his first election to Congress in 1992, and Kim, an Orange County Republican who won her seat in 2020. The only prior data came in a July survey for Kim’s allies that, like this newer poll, gave Calvert a 1-point edge.
Ballot Measures
NE Ballot
The Nebraska Supreme Court ruled on Thursday that a proposed constitutional amendment to limit the ability of politicians to interfere in the ballot initiative process could not go before voters in November because it violates the state’s prohibition on amendments that address more than a single subject.
Last month, Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen refused to certify the proposal on the same grounds. In response, the group supporting the measure, Respect Nebraska Voters, appealed to the state Supreme Court, but in a 6-1 ruling, it agreed with Evnen.
The majority held that the plan “addresses at least two subjects”: protecting laws already enacted by initiatives and restricting the ability of lawmakers to alter the initiative process itself. The lone dissenter, Justice Jonathan Papik, disagreed, saying the full measure could be characterized as affecting “the Legislature’s authority over the people’s reserved power to make laws.”
In a statement following the ruling, Respect Nebraska Voters said it would “continue to engage with Nebraskans to ensure that community voices are heard and respected by lawmakers” but did not address whether it might try again in the future with a narrower proposal.
Legislatures
IN State Senate
The Indiana Supreme Court ruled Thursday that state Sen. Spencer Deery had prevailed by three votes in the May Republican primary against Paula Copenhaver, a challenger backed by Donald Trump.
Last month, the state’s Recount Commission rejected six votes cast for Deery on technical grounds, including issues like clerks failing to sign ballots. The court, however, rejected that reasoning in a brief one-page order, saying it would issue a more detailed opinion at a later date.
The decision, which came four months after Trump and his allies defeated six other state senators who defied him on gerrymandering, could make it tougher for Republicans to pass a new congressional map next cycle.
Poll Pile
All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.
FL-Sen: Change Research for Freedom Project USA:
Angie Nixon (D): 47, Ashley Moody (R-inc): 47.
Freedom Project USA does not appear to have made an endorsement in any Florida contests, including those also polled below.
ME-Sen: YouGov:
Troy Jackson (D): 48, Susan Collins (R-inc): 44.
NC-Sen: Elon University/YouGov:
Roy Cooper (D): 49, Michael Whatley (R): 38.
July: 53-42 Cooper.
NC-Sen: East Carolina University:
Cooper (D): 46, Whatley (R): 39.
TX-Sen: Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research for the AARP:
James Talarico (D): 48, Ken Paxton (R): 44.
FL-Gov: Change:
David Jolly (D): 47, Byron Donalds (R): 44.
ME-Gov: YouGov:
Hannah Pingree (D): 47, Bobby Charles (R): 36, Rick Bennett (I): 2.
NV-Gov: Emerson College for KLAS-TV:
Aaron Ford (D): 44, Joe Lombardo (R-inc): 42.
TX-Gov: Fabrizio/Impact:
Greg Abbott (R-inc): 49, Gina Hinojosa (D): 46.
TN-09: Hart Research for Tennessee Rise PAC (pro-Justin Pearson):
Brent Taylor (R): 48, Pearson (D): 44.
FL-AG: Change:
Jose Javier Rodriguez (D): 46, James Uthmeier (R-inc): 46.
FL Chief Financial Officer: Change:
Annette Taddeo (D): 44, Blaise Ingoglia (R-inc): 44.
Iowa You Gov:
Turek 44
Hinson 43
Sand 50
Lahn 39
Trump approval 41/57
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/iowa_election_20260903.pdf
I was not alive on September 11, 2001 (yes, I am *that* young), but I still took time out of my day to remember and commemorate the victims. It's hard to believe something so earth-shattering could happen today, but since that day it seems our politics have become more hateful. Rest in peace to the victims, and condolences to the families.