Leading Off
NY-19
Republicans triaged their first House race of 2026 just before Labor Day—a worrying sign for the party’s hopes of holding the chamber, not least because it’s decided to narrow the playing field much earlier than in recent years.
The unlucky Republican at the center of this is state Sen. Peter Oberacker, who is challenging freshman Democratic Rep. Josh Riley in New York’s 19th District.
The news that the Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest conservative super PAC in House races, had abandoned Oberacker first became known on Friday when a spokesperson for the pro-Democratic House Majority PAC flagged that CLF had canceled more than $1.4 million in TV ad time for the race.
Punchbowl News’ Ally Mutnick also reported on Friday that the National Republican Congressional Committee had quietly removed the senator from its MAGA Majority program. The NRCC had placed Oberacker on its inaugural list in March, touting it as a “slate of strong candidates running in key battleground districts across the country who embody the Trump agenda.”
By Tuesday, Oberacker’s hopes had died their final death, when Axios’ Andrew Solender reported that CLF had cut all of its ad reservations for the race. In April, the PAC had announced it had booked nearly $4.6 million for the Albany, Binghamton, and Syracuse media markets, all of which was intended for this contest.
Six months ago, Oberacker did indeed appear to be a strong contender to flip the 19th District, a constituency in southeastern upstate New York that was a top House battleground during the previous two election cycles.
Republican Marc Molinaro first won this seat in 2022 by defeating Riley 51-49 in a contest that saw the four largest House groups—the CLF and NRCC on the right and HMP and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on the left—spend a combined $12 million.
That foursome would deploy another $21 million two years later when Riley sought a rematch, which once again made this one of the most expensive House races of the year. This time, though, it was Riley who came out on top 51-49 as Kamala Harris was carrying the 19th by a tight 50-49 spread.
Republicans spent most of 2025 looking for a candidate to retake the seat, and Oberacker finally stepped forward in October. After facing down only minor intraparty opposition in the primary, the senator went on to raise more than $1 million through the end of June.
Riley, however, benefited from his long head start to take in close to $5 million. The congressman also ended the second quarter of the year with an imposing $3.2 million to $400,000 cash-on-hand advantage.
Recently, the race drew national attention—of an unwelcome sort for Oberacker—when Politico’s Madison Fernandez reported that the Republican had taken to Facebook in 2015 to craft a Veterans Day post recognizing his grandfather’s service fighting and dying for Nazi Germany in World War II.
Oberacker, who told Fernandez he’d deleted the post at some point over the ensuing decade, added, “Having been on the antisemitism task force for the Senate Republicans, I would look at it a little bit differently now.”
Oberacker’s allies didn’t give any indication that they believed the stumble left him too weakened to win, but an unnamed GOP source told Solender that it was a factor. Oberacker’s “internals have him down,” they said, “[A]nd then there’s the Nazi thing, which is not a killer, but when you add them all up it’s like, ‘eh.’”
The GOP’s increasingly dire prospects in November, though, may be a problem no Republican nominee could have hoped to overcome in a district like this one.
Republicans have long talked about targeting Democratic-held constituencies that Donald Trump only narrowly lost in 2024, such as New Hampshire’s 1st District, an open seat that held its primary on Tuesday. (See our NH-01 item below.) Trump’s poor approval ratings, however, have left candidates like Oberacker struggling to persuade skeptical voters who elected a Democrat in 2024 to back a Republican this time.
Oberacker, though, has the dubious distinction of being the first House nominee of 2026 whose allies have canceled ad time intended to help him win a difficult race, a practice often referred to as triage. But he’s unlikely to be the last.
While Republican outside groups enjoy a considerable financial advantage over their Democratic counterparts, their funds are not unlimited. The GOP still needs to protect as many of its vulnerable seats as possible while also going after Democrats defending red turf. As the polls grow worse, blue-titling districts become a luxury Republicans can ill afford to target.
As the general election approaches, then, major groups will have to decide where to spend more and where to scale back—and even which races to give up on altogether.
Sometimes, top spenders triage contests because they feel their nominee is well ahead and want to free up money for more competitive races. Oberacker, though, does not fall into that happy category.
What also stands out is how early in the election cycle CLF’s move has come. The four top groups involved in House races only began to triage in late September in both 2020 and 2022, and not until the end of October in 2024.
But while CLF and the NRCC seem to agree that there’s no use propping up Oberacker, these organizations and their counterparts aren’t monolithic and don’t always agree on which candidates still need help. Outside groups can also resume spending on a race they’d triaged if they believe a candidate they’d counted out is gaining strength in the 11th hour.
For now, though, New York’s 19th District is the only House race any major players have scaled back on, but there will be more.
To keep track of these decisions over the next eight weeks, The Downballot has put together a new installment of our House race triage tracker. This resource, which we’ll continuously update from now until Election Day, keeps tabs on which groups are pulling back on their planned spending, and whether any such decisions favor Democrats or Republicans.
Election Recaps
NH-Sen (D & R) (51-48 Harris)
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas and former Republican Sen. John Sununu decisively won their respective primaries on Tuesday ahead of their closely watched general election battle to succeed Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, a Democrat who is not seeking reelection.
Pappas prevailed 65-33 against biochemist Karishma Manzur, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who campaigned to his left. The Associated Press estimates that only 88% of the vote is tabulated so this margin may change, but Pappas’ win isn’t in doubt.
Sununu, who had Donald Trump and powerful GOP groups on his side, scored an even larger win against former Sen. Scott Brown, who briefly represented Massachusetts in the upper chamber more than a decade ago. Sununu leads 68-27 with an estimated 84% of the vote in.
NH-01 (D & R) (51-49 Harris)
Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, won a tight Democratic primary for the seat that Pappas is giving up to run for the Senate. With an estimated 91% reporting, Shaheen leads Marine veteran Maura Sullivan 37-35, with Hampton Selectwoman Carleigh Beriont at 22%.
Shaheen will face wealthy developer Anthony DiLorenzo, whom Donald Trump endorsed in July, in the general election for New Hampshire’s 1st District in the eastern part of the state. DiLorenzo outpaced businesswoman Hollie Noveletsky 52-26 with an estimated 88% of the vote tabulated in the GOP primary.
Election Night
RI-Gov (D & R) (56-42 Harris)
Rhode Island is hosting a rare Wednesday primary, but the Ocean State’s biggest race appears to have ended before it even began.
Democratic Gov. Dan McKee has badly trailed Helena Foulkes, a former CVS executive who came close to defeating him in 2022, in every publicly available poll of their rematch. Two surveys conducted in late August showed his situation as dire as ever: Emerson College found Foulkes ahead 45-30, while the University of New Hampshire gave her an even larger 56-18 advantage.
McKee, who ascended from the lieutenant governor’s office in 2021 when Gov. Gina Raimondo resigned to join Joe Biden’s Cabinet, beat Foulkes 33-30 the following year, then went on to easily win the general election.
But his first full term has been dominated by vexing problems. The governor’s most high-profile issue is the long-delayed replacement for the Washington Bridge, a major traffic link in the Providence area that abruptly closed in 2023 after state officials declared it structurally unsafe.
Republicans will choose between Aaron Guckian, a former executive director of the Rhode Island Dental Association who was the 2022 nominee for lieutenant governor, and Elaine Pelino, a self-described “stand up comedian/host” and “proud MAGA Republican.”
The major party nominees will also face businessman Ken Block, a former Republican running as an independent. UNH’s recent poll showed Foulkes far ahead in a hypothetical three-way race regardless of which Republican advanced, while McKee had just a 1-point edge over Block.
Redistricting Roundup
MO Redistricting, MO Ballot
Justice Brett Kavanaugh rejected an emergency request by Republicans to block a ruling by the Missouri Supreme Court forbidding the state from using a new GOP-drawn congressional map on Tuesday, but soon after, a federal district judge said the state could use only that map.
Republicans had asked the U.S. Supreme Court to stay the Missouri court’s ruling last Thursday on a variety of grounds, but Kavanaugh turned them aside without explanation and chose not to refer the matter to his colleagues. (Kavanaugh is responsible for all emergency requests that originate within the jurisdiction of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals, a seven-state region that includes Missouri.)
Just minutes later, however, U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark, an appointee of Donald Trump, issued a temporary restraining order barring officials from using anything but the new Republican map, known as HB 1. That order came in a separate lawsuit filed on Friday by Republican Rep. Bob Onder and state Sen. Rick Brattin, the GOP nominee in the 5th District, as well as two Missouri voters.
Because HB 1 was used to conduct last month’s primaries, Clark concluded that switching back to the map used in the previous two election cycles for the November general election would “disenfranchise” voters in violation of the federal Constitution.
He therefore granted the plaintiffs’ motion, “enjoin[ing], on federal law grounds, Secretary of State [Denny] Hoskins—as well as his officers, agents, employees, and attorneys—from implementing, using, publishing, distributing, or mandating the use of any congressional district map other than the HB 1 map for the November 3, 2026 general election.”
However, the Missouri Supreme Court was just as emphatic in instructing election administrators not to use HB 1. Because the map is the target of a referendum seeking to repeal it, the court unanimously held that “HB 1 did not go into effect and will not go into effect unless and until approved by the voters.”
The justices therefore ordered that Hoskins “and all of those acting in concert with him are restrained and enjoined from implementing, using, or mandating the use of the congressional redistricting in HB 1 for the November 2026 general election.”
The dueling rulings could put county clerks in a precarious position. If they implement HB 1, they risk violating an order from the state’s highest court, while if they implement the previous map, they risk violating an order from a federal court.
One election law expert, Chris Geidner, described the two orders as “arguably conflicting,” while another, Justin Levitt, disagreed. Though he sharply criticized Clark’s order on social media, Levitt also said that it’s the only one that’s binding on administrators.
The dispute will likely be resolved soon, however. People Not Politicians, the group sponsoring the referendum, immediately asked the 8th Circuit to stay Clark’s ruling. In a filing, it argued that clerks would face an impossible choice if the decision is not paused.
“If the TRO remains in effect, elections officials will effectively be in contempt of either the Missouri Supreme Court or the federal district court if they implement either HB 1 or the 2022 map, leaving ballots and voters in flux,” lawyers for the group wrote.
Senate
KS-Sen
Republican Sen. Roger Marshall sued more than 700 patients of his obstetrics and gynecology practice over unpaid bills and, through his attorneys, frequently sought garnishments and even arrests, the New York Times’ Sarah Kliff reported on Tuesday.
At least 81 patients were arrested after missing court dates, according to Kliff, including one couple who said they were taken into custody amid an Easter weekend egg hunt with their grandchildren due to an outstanding bill for an emergency hysterectomy. Another woman was sued over a $129 bill nine months after she’d given birth and had her bank account garnished.
In response, a spokesperson for Marshall said the senator had long treated patients regardless of their financial status and added, “Judges issue warrants when people repeatedly miss court dates, not doctors.”
However, as Kliff explains, court documents show that Marshall’s attorneys “repeatedly requested arrest warrants.” He also required patients to sign a contract specifying an 18% interest rate on unpaid balances. Though Marshall gave up his medical practice once he was elected to the House in 2016, Kliff reports that some collection efforts continued even after he entered Congress.
The senator faces an unusually stiff challenge from Democrat Adam Hamilton, a megachurch pastor who’s proven to be a strong fundraiser. Several Democratic internal polls conducted over the summer showed a close race, and Republicans haven’t answered with contradictory data.
They have, however, responded with some notable outside spending. A Massachusetts-based super PAC called the Main Street Fund, which was set up the day of the Aug. 4 primary, has spent more than $1.3 million on TV ads that misleadingly stitch together snippets of Hamilton’s sermons to make him look like an extremist.
Hamilton, however, is getting a boost from another new group called People Over Politics, which so far has laid out a little over $840,000 on TV ads hammering Marshall for his efforts to block the release of the Epstein files.
TX-Sen
Two super PACs—one affiliated with Donald Trump and the other with Elon Musk—are at long last helping Republican Ken Paxton in his difficult election battle against Democrat James Talarico.
MAGA Inc. filed reports with the FEC last week disclosing $10 million in spending on Texas’ Senate race, which represents its first significant outlay in any general election this cycle. The investment comes as Trump continues to keep his party guessing as to how much of the group’s $400 million war chest will be directed toward aiding Republican candidates when Trump isn’t on the ballot.
Musk’s America PAC, meanwhile, reported shelling out $1.6 million to boost Paxton. The offensive came less than a week after the group disclosed it had spent $800,000 on behalf of Republican House candidates across the country. It went on to launch ads on Tuesday in the hotly competitive Senate contests in both Iowa and Ohio.
But while Paxton, who has badly trailed Talarico in fundraising, very much needs the support, outside spending can only do so much to offset his financial problems.
As Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin highlights, third-party groups currently need to spend more than twice as much as candidates to reach the same number of viewers. Rubashkin also notes that this gulf will only grow as Election Day draws closer and ad prices climb.
Governors
AK-Gov
Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who oversees Alaska’s elections, has reinstated former state Attorney General Treg Taylor as a candidate for governor after refusing to certify him for the general election ballot last week.
Dahlstrom disqualified Taylor based on a report from the Alaska Public Offices Commission, which recommended rejecting his candidacy because he failed to comply with financial disclosure laws. Those laws require candidates who own rental properties to name their renters, which Taylor, claiming to have 234 tenants, refused to do.
But the lieutenant governor reversed herself on Friday after receiving an analysis from the state attorney general’s office, which Taylor ran until resigning to run for governor last year. That new report, Dahlstrom asserted in a statement, “identified numerous potential discrepancies between filed statements and public records” for dozens of candidates.
“The Department of Law’s informal review has raised questions about the recommendations made on August 31,” she continued. “I will not withhold certification from two candidates on recommendations that, in light of this additional information, I cannot apply with confidence across the field of candidates. Certification decisions have to rest on a process that can be defended as to every candidate.”
(Dahlstrom had also disqualified a candidate for the state House, Republican Jose Tagle, who has likewise been reinstated.)
At a Monday press conference, a spokesperson for the attorney general’s office emphasized that the new review was “limited and expedited,” adding, “This was done over the course of a day and a half. So I can’t emphasize enough that this is a preliminary review. We didn’t have time to contact candidates.”
An attorney for Republican Gov. Mike Dunleavy further noted, “And just because there are potential discrepancies, that doesn’t mean that those candidates violated the law.”
When Taylor was initially removed from the ballot, he was replaced by his running mate, businesswoman Candice English, while English was in turn replaced by Taylor’s wife, Jodi Taylor. English will now return to the No. 2 spot.
Taylor finished fifth in last month’s top-four primary, but because former state Sen. Tom Begich dropped out in favor of a fellow Democrat, former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, the ex-attorney general moved up a slot. However, he faces two other Republicans on November’s ranked-choice ballot: conservative activist Bernadette Wilson and former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson.
Grab Bag
Where Are They Now?
Former Kentucky Gov. Matt Bevin, a Republican who was elected in 2015 but lost reelection four years later, was sentenced to 60 days in jail on Friday for contempt of court.
The sentence, which began immediately, came after Bevin failed to submit financial documents or attend court hearings concerning a child support case brought by his adopted son. Jonah Bevin, 19, has accused Matt Bevin and his now-former wife, Glenna Bevin, of placing him in a youth facility in Jamaica where he was repeatedly abused.
The former governor, who was arrested Thursday while working as an extra in a Christmas movie, has not sought office since his loss to Democrat Andy Beshear seven years ago. Bevin, however, is still playing a role in two high-profile elections this fall.
Ralph Alvarado, Bevin’s running mate during the 2019 campaign, is the Republican nominee for Kentucky’s 6th District, a conservative open seat that Democrat Zach Dembo is trying to flip.
An Alvarado spokesperson responded to Bevin’s arrest last week by telling Spectrum News 1, “Court orders are not optional, and everyone should comply with the court’s directive. Failure to do so has consequences.” Alvarado himself, however, has yet to comment.
Bevin’s legacy is also a factor in the campaign concerning a constitutional amendment that would restrict the governor’s pardon powers.
The plan, which will go before voters in November, would prohibit the state’s chief executive from issuing pardons within 60 days of an upcoming gubernatorial election. This blackout period would end five weeks following Election Day, when the incumbent has either begun a new term or a new governor has taken office.
Bevin sparked calls for this change in 2019 when he issued more than 600 pardons following his loss to Beshear. The recipients included a convicted murderer whose brother and sister-in-law held a fundraiser for Bevin in 2018, though the outgoing governor ardently denied that it had anything to do with his pardon.
Poll Pile
MI-Sen: Glengariff Group for WDIV and the Detroit News:
Mike Rogers (R): 46, Abdul El-Sayed (D): 44.
MT-Sen: Peak Insights for Kurt Alme:
Alme (R): 44, Seth Bodnar (I): 22, Alani Bankhead (D): 19, Kyle Austin (L): 2.
MI-Gov: Glengariff:
Jocelyn Benson (D): 47, John James (R): 43.
CA-48: SurveyUSA for KGTV:
Marni von Wilpert (D): 45, Jim Desmond (R): 42.
GA-07: 20/20 Insight for Tony Kozycki:
Rich McCormick (R-inc): 46, Kozycki (D): 43.
NM-02: SurveyUSA for KOB:
Gabe Vasquez (D-inc): 46, Greg Cunningham (R): 43.
NV-02: Strategies 360 for Teresa Benitez-Thompson:
Dave Flippo (R): 45, Benitez-Thompson (D): 42, Lynn Chapman (Independent American Party): 7.
NY-21: Impact Research for Blake Gendebien:
Anthony Constantino (R): 47, Gendebien (D): 44.
KS-SoS: Public Policy Polling for Jennifer Day:
Pat Proctor (R): 39, Day (D): 37.
St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: St. Pete Polls for Florida Politics:
Charlie Crist: 52, Ken Welch (inc): 27.
Both candidates are Democrats.
“[A]nd then there’s the Nazi thing, which is not a killer, but when you add them all up it’s like, ‘eh.’”
That quote right there tells you where the Republican Party is at
New Texas poll from YouGov/Univision poll | 8/27-9/4 RV
Texas statewide races 2026
US Senate
🟦James Talarico 48%
🟥Ken Paxton 43%
——
Texas Governor
🟥Greg Abbott 47% (incumbent)
🟦Gina Hinojosa 47%
——
Generic congressional ballot 2026 (TX)
🟦Democratic 48%
🟥Republican 46%