Leading Off
AK-Sen, AK-Gov, AK-AL
Alaska’s marquee elections saw major gyrations just ahead of Monday night’s deadline for candidates to withdraw, as some contenders quit to give their party a better chance in November while others facing long odds of victory also bowed out.
The contest for the state’s open governorship experienced the greatest upheaval. In that race, former state Sen. Tom Begich said on Friday that he was giving up his campaign and endorsing former state Rep. Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins, a fellow Democrat.
In last month’s top-four primary, Begich finished in second with 20.8% of the vote, not far behind Kreiss-Tomkins’ 22.5% showing. But according to the Anchorage Daily News, Begich said that data showed Democrats were likelier to win the general election by fielding just a single candidate.
“It was a better chance of winning if one of us went on alone,” Begich told the paper. He also said he was worried about his fundraising prospects, explaining, “Being able to get enough resources to run a successful campaign is hard when you’re No. 2, not No. 1, in the outcome in a primary.”
Even though Alaska’s general elections use ranked-choice voting to determine a winner if no one wins an outright majority, there’s no guarantee that a Kreiss-Tomkins supporter would also rank Begich and vice versa. This problem, known as ballot exhaustion, will no longer be a concern for Democrats, at least, because Kreiss-Tomkins is now the only Democrat left.
Republicans, by contrast, remain divided as they aim to succeed term-limited GOP Gov. Mike Dunleavy. Conservative activist Bernadette Wilson was the top vote-getter among Republicans, but because of the huge size of the GOP field, she wound up far behind Begich with 10% of the vote.
Former Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson trailed with 8%, but by virtue of his fourth-place showing, he moved on to the general election, too. Some fellow Republicans urged him to bow out in favor of Wilson, but he released a defiant video last week accompanied by a statement saying, “We are not backing down, we are not stepping aside, and we are not going anywhere.”
Under Alaska law, though, when someone who finishes among the top four in the primary withdraws, the fifth-place candidate moves up.
But with Begich’s departure, things grew especially hazy. On Monday, Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom, who oversees Alaska’s elections, disqualified the fifth-place contender, former state Attorney General Treg Taylor. Taylor earned 7% in the primary but was not permitted to move on because he’d refused to comply with financial disclosure laws.
In races for other posts, the sixth-place candidate would have then taken his place. However, in elections for governor, a disqualified or withdrawn candidate’s running mate is next in line to replace them. That resulted in the elevation of little-known businesswoman Candice English, who then had to choose a new person to serve as her running mate.
English tapped Taylor’s wife, Jodi Taylor, for that newly vacant role. However, the ADN reported that Jodi Taylor filed the same incomplete financial disclosures her husband had, meaning she potentially risks disqualification, too.
The high-profile battle for Senate saw far less disruption, though Democrats once again benefited when LGBTQ rights activist David Leslie, who wound up in fourth with just 1% of the vote, chose to withdraw. That left former Rep. Mary Peltola, who took first place with 50%, as the sole Democrat in the race.
Republican Sen. Dan S. Sullivan trailed Peltola with 41%, and he also has to deal with retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan, who is also running under the GOP banner and snagged 2.5%. Republicans had sought to remove Dan J. Sullivan from the ballot, likely fearing that some voters might rank him and not the incumbent, but the Alaska Supreme Court restored his candidacy.
Leslie’s decision also elevated perennial Republican candidate Gerald Heikes onto the ballot, creating another potential irritant for the senator.
Finally, the race for Alaska’s lone seat in the U.S. House experienced a cascade of departures that saw the promotion of a candidate who finished in eighth place.
The top two contenders are Republican Rep. Nick Begich, who scored 45% of the vote, and commercial fisherman Bill Hill, an independent who won 33%. The most prominent Democrat who’d been running, pastor Matt Schultz, dropped out in July and endorsed Hill. He still finished third with 8% but confirmed his withdrawal with state officials.
In fourth was Democrat Eric Hafner, who took 4% despite never even campaigning—because he’s in the midst of serving a 20-year sentence in a federal prison in New York for threatening to kill police officers, judges, and elected officials.
Hafner was likewise situated when he ran for the House two years ago. Democrats tried to have him booted from the ballot but were unsuccessful in court.
Schultz’s exit created a fresh opening, but no one was very keen to take it. The fifth-, sixth-, and seventh-place finishers all bowed out, leaving the honor to Libertarian Jim McDermott.
In addition to all of these contests, Alaska voters will also decide in November whether to repeal or retain their unique top-four primary and ranked-choice general elections.
Election Night
Massachusetts goes to the polls on Tuesday for one of the final primary nights of 2026, though its highest-profile bout seems to have fizzled out well before the election.
That contest—the Democratic Senate primary between incumbent Ed Markey and Rep. Seth Moulton—isn’t the only one on the docket, though. Below, we preview all of the most important races that will impact both the November elections and the makeup of Congress next year.
MA-Sen (D) (61-36 Harris)
While Moulton’s decision to challenge Markey initially looked as though it might spell the end of the senator’s career, recent polls show Markey with a wide advantage.
A new survey from Emerson College finds Markey ahead 60-33, a big shift from his slender 37-32 advantage in the school’s May poll. The University of New Hampshire likewise placed Markey ahead 63-28 in a survey released last week after showing him ahead just 41-35 in June.
Moulton, 47, has spent the campaign urging Democrats to embrace “generational change” and reject the 80-year-old senator. Markey, however, has pushed back by highlighting his progressive views. Last month, the senator told the New York Times, “I always think of myself as the youngest guy in the room when it comes to ideas.”
At the same time, Markey has portrayed Moulton as too conservative to represent one of the nation’s most liberal states. The incumbent, notably, has highlighted Moulton’s comments to the Times just after Donald Trump’s 2024 win, in which the congressman declared, “I have two little girls, I don’t want them getting run over on a playing field by a male or formerly male athlete, but as a Democrat I’m supposed to be afraid to say that.”
Moulton attempted to distance himself from his comments at a debate last month, telling trans voters, “I deeply recognize your trauma, and I’m sorry if my comments hurt you.” Markey, though, was not appeased.
“Congressman Moulton’s apology was more about political expediency than personal accountability,” he told 19th News. “He hurt those families. He hurt those kids.”
MA-Gov (R) (61-36 Harris)
Former medical technology executive Mike Minogue, who has thrown down at least $15 million of his own money, faces Brian Shortsleeve, a venture capitalist who served in then-Gov. Charlie Baker’s administration, for the right to take on Democratic Gov. Maura Healey.
The GOP nomination, though, may not be as valuable as Minogue’s massive self-funding suggests. Polls show Healey easily defeating both potential rivals in her campaign for a second term.
MA-01 (D) (56-42 Harris)
Rep. Richard Neal, a Democrat who was first elected in 1988 to represent the western reaches of the state, faces intraparty opposition from teacher Jeromie Whalen in the 1st District.
Whalen, 39, has pitched himself as a younger and more progressive outsider challenging the 77-year-old Neal. Whalen, however, has struggled to raise money to go up against the well-funded Neal, and outside groups have spent little to help him get his name out.
MA-06 (D) (59-39 Harris)
Six Democrats are on the ballot in the 6th District, a constituency in the northeast corner of the state that Rep. Seth Moulton is giving up to run for the Senate.
Dan Koh, a former Biden administration official, has raised considerably more money from donors than any of his rivals, and he’s also benefited from roughly $1.8 million in outside spending. He also has both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in his corner.
State Rep. Tram Nguyen, however, is hoping to pull off an upset by pitching herself as an alternative to the well-connected Koh, but one who nonetheless knows how to achieve results. (Her website touts her as an “effective State Representative” and an “outsider.”) While Nguyen hasn’t come close to matching Koh’s resources, she’s nonetheless received close to $700,000 in third-party support.
Nguyen also got some welcome news on Saturday when veterinarian Mariah Lancaster announced they were dropping out and endorsing Nguyen.
Three other candidates round out the field: software engineer Beth Andres-Beck and former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, who have both struggled to raise money, and wealthy attorney John Beccia, who has self-funded more than $4 million.
MA-08 (D) (62-36 Harris)
Rep. Stephen Lynch, long one of the most moderate Democrats in the House, faces a challenge from the left from attorney Patrick Roath in the 8th District, which includes part of Boston and communities to the south.
Roath has outraised Lynch, and he’s benefited from more than $500,000 in outside support. The incumbent, however, has touted his long experience and has a history of turning back primary challengers who’ve argued his constituents deserve a more liberal representative.
Senate
NH-Sen
Rep. Chris Pappas, the favorite of national Democrats, has responded to a public poll finding him in a surprisingly close battle in next week’s primary with a survey of his own that predicts a blowout.
Last week, the University of New Hampshire released data showing Pappas up 47-34 on biochemist Karishma Manzur—a drop from the 53-29 edge he enjoyed in June, and a far cry from the 65-11 advantage he sported in January.
Pappas, though, is arguing that little has changed this year. In a new internal poll from GQR, he leads Manzur, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, by a huge 71-15 margin. The congressman also has a comparably outsized financial advantage: As of Aug. 19, he reported raising almost $15.4 million, while his challenger had brought in just $415,000.
Whoever prevails will go on to face the winner of the GOP primary, where former Sen. John Sununu has consistently held wide leads over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.
House
LA-05, LA-06
The Louisiana Republican Party’s executive committee voted Thursday to back Louisiana Board of Regents chair Misti Cordell in the 5th Congressional District—and to add a second endorsement in the neighboring 6th District after initially backing just a single candidate.
A little over a week ago, the state GOP opted to support state Sen. Blake Miguez over fellow state Sen. Rick Edmonds in the 6th, an open seat Republicans dramatically transformed with their new gerrymander.
Tyler Bridges of NOLA.com, however, reports that Gov. Jeff Landry was “angered” by that decision and applied pressure to make sure Miguez wouldn’t be the GOP’s only endorsed candidate. The executive committee held a new vote days later and endorsed both Miguez and Edmonds.
While Landry hasn’t publicly taken sides in this contest, Bridges notes that the governor and Miguez are anything but friendly. One source traces the conflict to a November 2024 X post in which Miguez wrote, “The legislature should not consider any revenue measures without a clear plan to the public from @LAGovJeffLandry on how he will reduce the size of future government spending.”
Landry responded, “Now is not the time for political posturing or worrying about one’s next political office. @BlakeMiguezLA seems to want to run to social media instead of offering his own plan.” Landry also encouraged Miguez’s constituents to “ask him what his proposal is, what has he done, how is he going to take us from the bottom to the top?!”
Bridges, meanwhile, writes that there’s no indication Landry worked to help Cordell, whom he’s personally close to, win the GOP endorsement in the 5th, a dark-red seat that Rep. Julia Letlow is giving up to run for the Senate. The governor also hasn’t publicly come out in support of Cordell, who is going up against three Republican legislators in the fall.
Ballot Measures
NE Ballot
Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen greenlit a constitutional amendment to restrict the participation of trans students in school sports on Monday while rejecting another seeking to prevent Nebraska politicians from interfering with citizen-sponsored ballot initiatives.
The latter proposal would require lawmakers to muster a four-fifths supermajority before altering or repealing any measure approved by voters. It would also impose the same threshold for any changes made to the process for qualifying initiatives or referendums and would further require such changes “to advance a compelling state interest achieved by the least restrictive means.”
Evnen said that backers had likely submitted the necessary number of signatures but concluded that the proposal violated the state’s prohibition on amendments that address more than one subject. The group supporting the measure, Respect Nebraska Voters, said in a statement that it would challenge the determination in court.
The other measure, meanwhile, would require schools to designate every athletic team as “based on biological sex,” limited to male, female, or mixed. Teams designated as female “shall not be open to students of the male sex,” prohibiting trans students from joining such teams.
Nebraska’s GOP-dominated legislature already passed a law imposing the same restrictions last year, but conservatives now want to enshrine it in the state constitution. Evnen said on Monday that supporters’ signatures had passed muster, allowing the amendment to appear on the November ballot.
Poll Pile
MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA:
Abdul El-Sayed (D): 47, Mike Rogers (R): 43.
MS-Sen: Data for Progress for Way to Lead PAC (pro-Scott Colom):
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-inc): 44, Colom (D): 38, Ty Pinkins (I): 7.
Hyde-Smith (R-inc): 47, Colom (D): 41.
KS-Gov: Global Strategy Group for Cindy Holscher:
Holscher (D): 47, Ty Masterson (R): 46.
MI-Gov: EPIC-MRA:
Jocelyn Benson (D): 45, John James (R): 41.
NM-Gov: Research & Polling for the Albuquerque Journal:
Deb Haaland (D): 49, Gregg Hull (R): 43.
PA-Gov: Bravo Group for PennLive:
Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 56, Stacy Garrity (R): 25.
July: 53-28 Shapiro.
MI-10: Global Strategy Group for House Majority PAC:
Christina Hines (D): 45, Mike Bouchard (R): 45.
NC-07: Public Policy Polling for Kimberly Hardy:
David Rouzer (R-inc): 45, Hardy (D): 39, Maad Abu-Ghazalah (L): 3.
Rouzer (R-inc): 49, Hardy (D): 43.
PA-01: GQR for HMP:
Brian Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 49, Bob Harvie (D): 48.
TN-05: Impact Research for Chaz Molder:
Charlie Hatcher (R): 48, Molder (D): 40.
FL-13 poll. Luna gets eclipsed by Gray 51-46
Surprised Begich dropped but good on him. Gotta think Dems are now favored in AK-SEN and AK-GOV given the current ballot situations. AK-AL tossup at this point still probably.