Surprised Begich dropped but good on him. Gotta think Dems are now favored in AK-SEN and AK-GOV given the current ballot situations. AK-AL tossup at this point still probably.
Yeah, I doubt you could find a better illustration of Democrats in it for the right reasons (IOW they truly care about their constituents) and some power-hungry Dems (thinking specifically about Andrew Cuomo*) and almost all Republicans!
*After losing the mayoral race as a Democrat in the primary, he then ran as an Independent in the general hoping to spoil Mamdani's changes.
FYI, I was on a Zoom fund raiser a while back that featured both Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Bill Hill who is the Indie candidate for the House. Both seem exactly like candidates that AK needs!
If you are thinking about sending some money to help AK, check out this one-stop fundraising page from Oath. NOTE: you can easily tweak the split for any donation:
I’m quoting the DB newsletter that I received by email today:
I’m incredibly pleased to announce a new perk for all paid subscribers to The Downballot: a free three-month subscription to Taegan Goddard’s must-read Political Wire!
I’ve been religiously reading Political Wire for more than a quarter century—before I ever even began blogging myself—and there truly is nothing like it. From the start, I immediately grasped that Taegan had a unique combination of talents: He always knows exactly what the most important news stories are each day, and he’s brilliant at distilling them down to their most important takeaways.
We’ve tried to emulate that approach here at The Downballot when it comes to elections, but Taegan casts a much wider net, covering every national development every political professional and junkie needs to know about. What’s more, reading Political Wire is just so darn efficient. It’ll keep you on top of everything with a minimum of time and effort.
For his paying subscribers (of which I am proudly one), Taegan offers even more stellar content, including:
- His weekly news quiz—tons of fun!
- His weekly podcast, Trial Balloon
- His exclusive analysis of major developments, which always makes me smarter
Since you’re already a paying subscriber here, just click below to take advantage of Taegan’s generous offer of three free months of Political Wire:
Yes, although presidential polling is its own beast. Looking at midterm polling from 2018 (they didn't have anything for 2022, nor did they have a poll of the 2024 senate race for that matter), they did better there. Their last poll of the 2018 senate race had Stabenow winning by 7 points (she won by 6.5), and their last poll of the 2018 governor's race had Whitmer winning by 8 points (she won by 9.5). An important caveat is that these polls' sample size was a whopping... 169 people. So I don't really know how valuable their polls are in reality.
Nice to have you back David, hopefully you aren't overdoing it. Funny how when the docs say things like, "it's a pretty routine (whatever type) surgery" you might hear "I'll be back at it quickly" and then underestimate the actual pain/discomfort from a procedure and on top of that the sleep you lose from pain/discomfort. The resulting sleep deprived and med induced fogginess makes what you thought you could do in your optimism not at all realistic. (At least, that's been my experience.)
I’ve only had one surgery before - an appendectomy. The doctors told me it was very routine and not a super major surgery so I expected the recovery to be easy. It was not. I severely underestimated how much your body hurts and needs time after having it literally cut open and sewn back together again
Alaska's RCV doesn't seem to be enticing participation. They only had about 27% turnout according to the official results linked in the item above.
I like RCV a lot, but Alaska's version doesn't seem to be working. Maybe it only works for party primaries and general elections with 3+ parties on the ballot.
This is similar to what we saw with Jaime Harrison; he had some leads, but never above 45% of the vote, so ultimately doesn't mean we're winning the seat. Not sad to see it though! Anything that helps with the psychological warfare is beneficial.
I was going off of memory so I went to the wiki page, apparently Harrison did hid 47-48 in a few polls and even 50 in one, so I was a little off. But still, SC is provably a tough nut to crack.
NC-1: Yet another congressional candidate, Republican Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, was suspended from Kalshi after betting on her race. She faces Rep. Don Davis in a close election.
I'm back from 3.5 weeks in Tanzania, where the internet situation was interesting. I had no access to social media. Some days I was able to pick up the usual daily newsletters (Politico, NYT The Morning, etc). Signal worked every 3-4 days. So I completely missed hyperventilating over the latest poll du jour, and I'm not sure that was a bad thing.
On a somewhat related note, I'd love to find a female House candidate to endorse to round out a slate. We have a Senate slate. We have most of a House slate. Both are dominated by men. Who looks interesting and at least somewhat decent on climate/ clean energy?
I always try to support candidates in races that are no better than toss-up, particularly in a year that can be this good for us. So let me nominate Lindsay James in Iowa-2. She is endorsed by LCV Action Fund. It's an open seat as Hinson is running for senate. There are a number of competitive races in Iowa this year including for Gov, Senate and two other house seats. This race is generally rated as Lean-R and winning would likely be our third pick-up in Iowa. Resources spent here can also help other races in Iowa. https://www.lindsayforiowa.com/about
How about Nancy Lacore in SC01? She's got a good resume, imo, and the district's population is growing rapidly with out if staters who probably make it bluer than the last election. And the Rs have an unexciting candidate for Gov (in a likely noncompetitive race, sad to say) and Darline Graham for Sen probably isn't boosting turnout either. So openings for Dems seem good. Plus Mark Sanford did well in the Sen Special primary in SC01, so the non-Trump Rs may stay home or cross over. Local D events have been well attended, even my inlaws are going.
"A pair of House Democrats voted to rescue the Republican legislative agenda Tuesday as GOP leaders faced an internal revolt, an extremely rare crossing of party lines that pushed a key procedural vote through a closely divided chamber.
Democratic Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington voted with most Republicans to set up debate on a series of GOP-led bills, including a resolution condemning socialism that party leaders want to use to hammer Democrats on the campaign trail.
The two Democrats were decisive in the 210-208 vote, where five Republicans had broken ranks over frustrations with how party leaders had handled an earlier vote on government spending."
....
Anyone want to venture a guess as to MGP and Golden's rationale for throwing the GOP a lifeline? Golden may have fisheries constituents he's thinking about.
Yes, the Politico article talks about Golden’s motives here. He’s trying to delay legislation that’s meant to regulate fishing so whale population is protected as he believes this will help lobstermen in Maine. I’m not sure I understand this bill but if fishermen are mainly catching lobster, then why would whales be harmed in the process?
The resolution aiming to condemn socialism though is a waste of energy and time. Nothing productive about it, especially considering Medicare and Social Security when they were originally conceived were accused by critics as being about socialism.
Yeah, it's for sure complicated. I don't like what Golden and MGP are doing here but at the same time, there's plenty to weigh if you're representing constituents that include fishermen whose ability to make a living gets compromised if they aren't being helped.
A friend of mine some time ago moved to Maine with her husband and kids. Being a very liberal person (like me) who happens to be a vegan and pro animal rights, she has argued against eating fish like wild salmon due to climate change and that lobstermen should not be given any more support as this reinforces the problem.
There's plenty to weigh when it comes to the fishing industry's contribution to the economy, fishermen's interests and also the environment. Besides, fish like wild salmon contain the highest amount of omega 3s vs. any food and most nutritionists recommend this to help combat chronic gut health problems. Lobster isn't far off.
Yeah seafood is extraordinarily healthy as a general rule and most of them can't feel pain or process danger so I think the ethical case is a lot greyer than it is for pigs or cows. I still eat the latter, but I am susceptible to feeling bad about it on occasion because they are cute.
When the district included Olympia before an Olympia-area 10th district was created in 2012, it was much more of a liberal bastion than it is now. Brian Baird was a great congressman. And his niece Billie Eilish is a great performer.
Although the district is moving leftward, we won't have to wait that long most likely, as it will probably be drawn to be much bluer in 2032, assuming the gerrymandering wars continue.
That's the ideal situation although with MGP, she may be unorthodox as a Democrat but right now she's the best we have in being able to keep the seat in the Democratic Party's hands.
ME-Sen: Well, apparently the Portland Press Herald is recycling a similar column from 2020 written by the same lobbyist, claiming to be a normie Democrat who is supporting Susan Collins.
For Hill to win in AK-AL, Democrats need to make sure everyone knows exactly who Hafner is. I feel the strategy there is to run ads about how much of a scumbag he is, and after attacking Begich for his record as well, promote Hill as someone with moral character. Otherwise, extremely low information Democrats might just rank Hafner and no one else.
OK-5: Rep. Stephanie Bice (R), whose seat was gerrymandered to favor her party, is privately concerned about Republicans in her district who will either split-ticket vote or not vote at all. She flipped the Oklahoma City district, which was once swingy in the 2010s but is now safely red.
She also said in leaked audio that it was "fair" to say that Trump has brought fatigue to the Republican Party.
Good to hear. Wahab is still mindset wise in transition although she also has the more immediate regular general election to face as well as she's going up against Melissa Hernandez again like in the special election.
FL-13 poll. Luna gets eclipsed by Gray 51-46
I see what you did there.
I love seeing lunatics eclipsed – hopefully permanently – by rational people.
It has to be a total eclipse...
Blood moon – and then total eclipse?
link
https://x.com/cjwarnke/status/2094753311228358997?s=20
Surprised Begich dropped but good on him. Gotta think Dems are now favored in AK-SEN and AK-GOV given the current ballot situations. AK-AL tossup at this point still probably.
⬆️"Surprised Begich dropped but good on him."
Yeah, I doubt you could find a better illustration of Democrats in it for the right reasons (IOW they truly care about their constituents) and some power-hungry Dems (thinking specifically about Andrew Cuomo*) and almost all Republicans!
*After losing the mayoral race as a Democrat in the primary, he then ran as an Independent in the general hoping to spoil Mamdani's changes.
FYI, I was on a Zoom fund raiser a while back that featured both Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and Bill Hill who is the Indie candidate for the House. Both seem exactly like candidates that AK needs!
If you are thinking about sending some money to help AK, check out this one-stop fundraising page from Oath. NOTE: you can easily tweak the split for any donation:
https://app.oath.vote/cart?states=Alaska
Dear David & Co:
Thank you so much for that added perk! Ever since I became aware of it, I have keenly appreciated the Political Wire.
What is the perk?
I’m quoting the DB newsletter that I received by email today:
I’m incredibly pleased to announce a new perk for all paid subscribers to The Downballot: a free three-month subscription to Taegan Goddard’s must-read Political Wire!
I’ve been religiously reading Political Wire for more than a quarter century—before I ever even began blogging myself—and there truly is nothing like it. From the start, I immediately grasped that Taegan had a unique combination of talents: He always knows exactly what the most important news stories are each day, and he’s brilliant at distilling them down to their most important takeaways.
We’ve tried to emulate that approach here at The Downballot when it comes to elections, but Taegan casts a much wider net, covering every national development every political professional and junkie needs to know about. What’s more, reading Political Wire is just so darn efficient. It’ll keep you on top of everything with a minimum of time and effort.
For his paying subscribers (of which I am proudly one), Taegan offers even more stellar content, including:
- His weekly news quiz—tons of fun!
- His weekly podcast, Trial Balloon
- His exclusive analysis of major developments, which always makes me smarter
Since you’re already a paying subscriber here, just click below to take advantage of Taegan’s generous offer of three free months of Political Wire:
https://x.com/IAPolls2022/status/2094782584945270802
MICHIGAN POLL By MSU/YouGov
SENATE
🟦 Abdul El-Sayed: 50%
🟥 Mike Rogers: 45%
——
GOVERNOR
🟦 Jocelyn Benson: 52%
🟥 John James: 43%
August 10-20 | 779 LV
ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-poll-…
Back in 2024, did they overshoot Harris support by a lot?
YouGov's last poll was 50-47 Harris, final result was 49-48 Trump, so within the margin of error.
Not YouGov’s own poll. MSU’s own poll was very much over.
https://ippsr.msu.edu/news/msu-survey-harris-leading-michigan
Different pollster though, so not apples to apples.
Yes, although presidential polling is its own beast. Looking at midterm polling from 2018 (they didn't have anything for 2022, nor did they have a poll of the 2024 senate race for that matter), they did better there. Their last poll of the 2018 senate race had Stabenow winning by 7 points (she won by 6.5), and their last poll of the 2018 governor's race had Whitmer winning by 8 points (she won by 9.5). An important caveat is that these polls' sample size was a whopping... 169 people. So I don't really know how valuable their polls are in reality.
Nice to have you back David, hopefully you aren't overdoing it. Funny how when the docs say things like, "it's a pretty routine (whatever type) surgery" you might hear "I'll be back at it quickly" and then underestimate the actual pain/discomfort from a procedure and on top of that the sleep you lose from pain/discomfort. The resulting sleep deprived and med induced fogginess makes what you thought you could do in your optimism not at all realistic. (At least, that's been my experience.)
Take the time you need, sir.
I’ve only had one surgery before - an appendectomy. The doctors told me it was very routine and not a super major surgery so I expected the recovery to be easy. It was not. I severely underestimated how much your body hurts and needs time after having it literally cut open and sewn back together again
Similar experience with a hernia repair recently, and in the context of hernias (herniae?) even mine was small/minor.
Alaska's RCV doesn't seem to be enticing participation. They only had about 27% turnout according to the official results linked in the item above.
I like RCV a lot, but Alaska's version doesn't seem to be working. Maybe it only works for party primaries and general elections with 3+ parties on the ballot.
I think this system makes a lot more sense.
It sounds low, but I read somewhere (damned if I can find it) that it was the 4th largest primary turnout in state history.
Yikes
This CNN report on USPS’ plans for mail-in ballots is certainly deeply concerning.
https://www.cnn.com/2026/09/01/politics/usps-whistleblower-mail-ballot-rules-trump
SC-Sen: Impact Research poll release is circulating on Twitter showing Andrews beating Graham 42-39, with a Libertarian candidate taking 6%.
Here is the release as tweeted by a Punchbowl News reporter. Unfortunately, that's the most credible source I can find. https://x.com/maxpcohen/status/2094727213044191363
> Dem sponsored poll
> Andrews still in the 41%-42% range
> Third party candidate with 6%
Throw it on the pile. If Andrews wants this race to be considered competitive, we're going to need some polling that has her atleast at 45%.
This is similar to what we saw with Jaime Harrison; he had some leads, but never above 45% of the vote, so ultimately doesn't mean we're winning the seat. Not sad to see it though! Anything that helps with the psychological warfare is beneficial.
I was going off of memory so I went to the wiki page, apparently Harrison did hid 47-48 in a few polls and even 50 in one, so I was a little off. But still, SC is provably a tough nut to crack.
And those polls were wildly out of keeping with the election results.
I am still predicting a Turek win in IA and have added Andrews over Graham to my list.
The GOP though is still quite institutional and strong in SC so if Andrews loses, it should not come as a surprise to anyone here.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/08/31/kalshi-suspends-gop-house-candidate-betting-her-own-race/
NC-1: Yet another congressional candidate, Republican Army veteran Laurie Buckhout, was suspended from Kalshi after betting on her race. She faces Rep. Don Davis in a close election.
I'm back from 3.5 weeks in Tanzania, where the internet situation was interesting. I had no access to social media. Some days I was able to pick up the usual daily newsletters (Politico, NYT The Morning, etc). Signal worked every 3-4 days. So I completely missed hyperventilating over the latest poll du jour, and I'm not sure that was a bad thing.
On a somewhat related note, I'd love to find a female House candidate to endorse to round out a slate. We have a Senate slate. We have most of a House slate. Both are dominated by men. Who looks interesting and at least somewhat decent on climate/ clean energy?
Welcome back! That sounds like an amazing trip! Where did you go?
Kilimanjaro (summited 8/15), safari, Zanzibar.
Sounds like a wonderful trip.
Fantastic! Congratulations!
Welcome back.
I always try to support candidates in races that are no better than toss-up, particularly in a year that can be this good for us. So let me nominate Lindsay James in Iowa-2. She is endorsed by LCV Action Fund. It's an open seat as Hinson is running for senate. There are a number of competitive races in Iowa this year including for Gov, Senate and two other house seats. This race is generally rated as Lean-R and winning would likely be our third pick-up in Iowa. Resources spent here can also help other races in Iowa. https://www.lindsayforiowa.com/about
thx! we're supporting Bohannan in the neighboring district as well as Turek.
How about Nancy Lacore in SC01? She's got a good resume, imo, and the district's population is growing rapidly with out if staters who probably make it bluer than the last election. And the Rs have an unexciting candidate for Gov (in a likely noncompetitive race, sad to say) and Darline Graham for Sen probably isn't boosting turnout either. So openings for Dems seem good. Plus Mark Sanford did well in the Sen Special primary in SC01, so the non-Trump Rs may stay home or cross over. Local D events have been well attended, even my inlaws are going.
thx, will check her out!
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/01/two-house-democrats-vote-to-salvage-gop-agenda-01060168
"A pair of House Democrats voted to rescue the Republican legislative agenda Tuesday as GOP leaders faced an internal revolt, an extremely rare crossing of party lines that pushed a key procedural vote through a closely divided chamber.
Democratic Reps. Jared Golden of Maine and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington voted with most Republicans to set up debate on a series of GOP-led bills, including a resolution condemning socialism that party leaders want to use to hammer Democrats on the campaign trail.
The two Democrats were decisive in the 210-208 vote, where five Republicans had broken ranks over frustrations with how party leaders had handled an earlier vote on government spending."
....
Anyone want to venture a guess as to MGP and Golden's rationale for throwing the GOP a lifeline? Golden may have fisheries constituents he's thinking about.
Yes, the Politico article talks about Golden’s motives here. He’s trying to delay legislation that’s meant to regulate fishing so whale population is protected as he believes this will help lobstermen in Maine. I’m not sure I understand this bill but if fishermen are mainly catching lobster, then why would whales be harmed in the process?
The resolution aiming to condemn socialism though is a waste of energy and time. Nothing productive about it, especially considering Medicare and Social Security when they were originally conceived were accused by critics as being about socialism.
Probably some complicated ecosystem thing. Whales, much like myself, eat a lot of shit, some of which might be good/bad for lobster? Idk.
Yeah, it's for sure complicated. I don't like what Golden and MGP are doing here but at the same time, there's plenty to weigh if you're representing constituents that include fishermen whose ability to make a living gets compromised if they aren't being helped.
A friend of mine some time ago moved to Maine with her husband and kids. Being a very liberal person (like me) who happens to be a vegan and pro animal rights, she has argued against eating fish like wild salmon due to climate change and that lobstermen should not be given any more support as this reinforces the problem.
There's plenty to weigh when it comes to the fishing industry's contribution to the economy, fishermen's interests and also the environment. Besides, fish like wild salmon contain the highest amount of omega 3s vs. any food and most nutritionists recommend this to help combat chronic gut health problems. Lobster isn't far off.
Yeah seafood is extraordinarily healthy as a general rule and most of them can't feel pain or process danger so I think the ethical case is a lot greyer than it is for pigs or cows. I still eat the latter, but I am susceptible to feeling bad about it on occasion because they are cute.
That's really infuriating!
I do not like MGP at all. I hope the district shifts left enough in the future so we can have a more normal Democrat there
When the district included Olympia before an Olympia-area 10th district was created in 2012, it was much more of a liberal bastion than it is now. Brian Baird was a great congressman. And his niece Billie Eilish is a great performer.
Although the district is moving leftward, we won't have to wait that long most likely, as it will probably be drawn to be much bluer in 2032, assuming the gerrymandering wars continue.
That's the ideal situation although with MGP, she may be unorthodox as a Democrat but right now she's the best we have in being able to keep the seat in the Democratic Party's hands.
ME-Sen: Well, apparently the Portland Press Herald is recycling a similar column from 2020 written by the same lobbyist, claiming to be a normie Democrat who is supporting Susan Collins.
Twitter link: https://x.com/CollinsWatch/status/2094784024354898322
Equivalent link on BlueSky: https://bsky.app/profile/collinswatch.bsky.social/post/3muhkjaadjk23
Frustrating. However, newspaper endorsements generally don't have much influence on election results, nowadays.
For Hill to win in AK-AL, Democrats need to make sure everyone knows exactly who Hafner is. I feel the strategy there is to run ads about how much of a scumbag he is, and after attacking Begich for his record as well, promote Hill as someone with moral character. Otherwise, extremely low information Democrats might just rank Hafner and no one else.
https://upolitics.com/news/leaked-audio-captures-republican-rep-stephanie-bice-warning-of-trump-fatigue-gop-wipeout-ahead-of-midterms/
OK-5: Rep. Stephanie Bice (R), whose seat was gerrymandered to favor her party, is privately concerned about Republicans in her district who will either split-ticket vote or not vote at all. She flipped the Oklahoma City district, which was once swingy in the 2010s but is now safely red.
She also said in leaked audio that it was "fair" to say that Trump has brought fatigue to the Republican Party.
https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2026/09/01/congress/everton-blair-swearing-in-01060088
Rep. Everton Blair (D-GA) was sworn into the House earlier today. His colleague Aisha Wahab (D-CA) will be sworn in tomorrow.
Good to hear. Wahab is still mindset wise in transition although she also has the more immediate regular general election to face as well as she's going up against Melissa Hernandez again like in the special election.
https://www.kcra.com/article/aisha-wahab-prepares-to-transition-from-the-california-senate-to-congress-ca-politics-360/73557764