Note: The Downballot will be taking off on Friday, so we will not be publishing a Morning Digest on Monday. We’ll be back in your inboxes on Tuesday. Have a great weekend!
Leading Off
MA-08, MA-01
Democratic Rep. Stephen Lynch is hoping to avoid becoming the final member of Congress to lose renomination this year, but attorney Patrick Roath still has a difficult task in Tuesday’s primary for Massachusetts’ 8th District.
Roath began running against Lynch, who has spent his quarter-century in the House as one of his party’s most centrist members, in May of last year as Democrats across the nation began calling for longtime incumbents to step aside.
Roath, who at 39 is more than three decades younger than the 71-year-old congressman, has made change a centerpiece of his effort. He launched his campaign last spring by calling for “new leadership” in the 8th District, a longtime Democratic bastion that includes parts of Boston and communities to the south.
Roath, who served in then-Gov. Deval Patrick’s administration, has hauled in more money than Lynch since he started his effort. Since launching his bid, he’s taken in almost $1.3 million through Aug. 12, when the most recent fundraising period ended, compared to just over $900,000 for the congressman. Lynch, though, has still enjoyed a spending edge thanks to money he had already stockpiled.
Roath is getting assistance from outside groups, but not on the same scale as other high-profile primary challengers in races elsewhere this cycle. FEC reports show that third-party outfits, led by David Hogg’s Leaders We Deserve, have spent about $500,000 to help Roath and attack Lynch.
Leaders We Deserve’s offensive includes mailers citing both new and old offenses to make its case that Lynch, who has served in Congress since 2001, is “MAGA’s favorite Democrat.”
One flyer goes after the congressman, who last year was the sole member of the state’s nine-member, all-Democratic House delegation to back the Laken Riley Act, which turbocharged Donald Trump’s anti-immigration agenda. It also reminds voters that Lynch opposed the Affordable Care Act in 2010, a vote that came even after an in-person Oval Office meeting with then-President Barack Obama.
But while that nay vote dogged Lynch in 2013 when he competed in a special election after Sen. John Kerry resigned to become secretary of state—fellow Rep. Ed Markey decisively beat him in the primary en route to winning the general election—it has yet to cost him his House seat. Hogg’s outfit, however, argues that Democratic voters in the 8th District have finally had enough of their congressman.
Leaders We Deserve unveiled an internal poll early this month showing Lynch beating Roath by a small 50-43 margin, a big shift from his 54-32 advantage in an unreleased July survey also conducted for the group. These surveys, which were conducted by Z to A Research, are the only polling anyone has released of this contest all summer.
The incumbent’s backers haven’t countered with more favorable numbers, but they’re not spending like they believe he’s in trouble. To date, Lynch’s allies have spent less than $100,000 to help him.
Lynch likewise isn’t behaving as though he thinks he needs much assistance. He told the Boston Globe last week that he’s beaten opponents with “more money and more of a buzz around them.”
But while “buzz” is unquantifiable, Lynch had, until now, outraised every opponent he’s ever faced, and always by wide margins.
That includes his two most notable primary challengers: physician Robbie Goldstein, whom he beat 66-33 in 2020, and Mac D’Alessandro, a former SEIU regional political director whom he defeated by a similar 65-35 margin a decade earlier. Neither benefited from nearly enough outside spending to overcome the financial gap.
Lynch has also continued to embrace the political center despite his constituency’s strong Democratic lean: Kamala Harris carried the 8th District 62-36, according to calculations by The Downballot.
“We need more people in the middle to give that strength to the Democrats, so that we can actually be a party that governs, and not simply a party of protesters ... against the party in power,” he told GBH.
Lynch also rejects the idea that voters should want a younger representative.
“We’ve got a pretty young Congress right now, so I think you need a balance,” he said at a debate. The Boston Globe notes that the average age for House members is 58, though the median American is just 39.
Lynch, who led an ironworkers union based in South Boston before he entered Congress, has also gone on the offensive by highlighting the fact that Roath is originally from Connecticut.
“I did grow up in Connecticut, my god I’m so sorry,” Roath snarked to Spectrum News. The challenger, though, turned more serious as he argued that Lynch’s attempts to portray him as an interloper are “an insult to all the people who grew up in other parts of the country and world or state and have moved into this district.”
Lynch’s primary is taking place on the same day that Rep. Richard Neal, a fellow Democrat who has represented the western reaches of the state since 1989, is trying to fend off intraparty opposition from teacher Jeromie Whalen in the 1st District.
Whalen, who’s drawn eyeballs while barnstorming the district in a bright-yellow van, has also earned attention outside the Bay State, but he’s received considerably less financial support than Roath.
Whalen raised just under $340,000 through mid-August, and he’s benefited from less than $30,000 in outside help. Neal, the top Democrat on the powerful Ways and Means Committee, has spent more than $3 million to win another term.
Massachusetts’ nominating contests come near the end of what’s been a tough primary season for House incumbents. Seven Democrats have been ejected by their own party’s voters this year, while four Republicans have met the same fate.
These members have lost for a variety of reasons, including scandal, redistricting, age, and ideological conflicts with their party’s base. But while Roath and his allies have made Lynch’s votes a particular emphasis, the challenger has also argued that the congressman hasn’t demonstrated leadership at a pivotal moment in American history.
“It might have been fine for a long time to have a member of Congress who is kind of going with the flow, who’s a backbencher, who votes on most of the bills, but is not leading, and that time is over,” Roath told the editorial board for the Boston Globe, which went on to endorse him.
“That is not what we can have right now,” he continued. “We need every single one of these Democratic seats to be punching above their weight.”
The Downballot Podcast
The Downballot’s ‘Senate flip’ fantasy draft
Due to a technical issue, this week’s podcast was published after yesterday’s Digest, so we’re re-upping it in case you were unable to access it. We apologize for the inconvenience.
Runoffs were the big story this week, with close contests in South Carolina, Oklahoma, and Georgia. On this week’s episode of The Downballot podcast, co-host David Beard and guest host Kari Chisholm discuss how two Trump-endorsed candidates—Darline Graham in South Carolina and Mike Mazzei in Oklahoma—narrowly won their races, along with their prospects in the general election. They also preview next week’s primaries in Massachusetts, including Rep. Seth Moulton’s faltering challenge to Sen. Ed Markey.
Then in our deep dive, we channel the spirit of fantasy football season for a “Senate flip” fantasy draft. David and Kari take turns “drafting” each of this year’s top Senate races, based on how likely every seat is to change hands. Of course, as with any draft, there’s plenty of analysis of every prospect!
House
MA-06
State Rep. Tram Nguyen received a trio of notable endorsements this week as she aims to upset Dan Koh, a former Biden administration official who leads all recent polling, in Tuesday’s busy Democratic primary for Massachusetts’ open 6th District.
On Monday, Nguyen publicized endorsements from two members of the state’s congressional delegation: Rep. Ayanna Pressley, who is one of the most prominent progressives in the chamber, and Rep. Lori Trahan, who defeated Koh by 145 votes in the 2018 primary for the neighboring 3rd District.
Attorney General Andrea Campbell joined them on Thursday in endorsing Nguyen’s campaign to replace Rep. Seth Moulton, a Democrat who is leaving his House seat behind to challenge Sen. Ed Markey for renomination. Moulton himself has not taken sides in the primary for the 6th District, a reliably blue constituency in the region north of Boston known as the North Shore.
Koh, for his part, has both Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in his corner, as well as a big financial advantage over the rest of the field thanks to both his strong fundraising and heavy outside spending.
Koh also recently released an internal poll from Global Strategy Group showing him leading Nguyen 35-20. Wealthy attorney John Beccia took third with 12%, while the remaining three candidates—former state Rep. Jamie Belsito, veterinarian Mariah Lancaster, and software engineer Beth Andres-Beck—registered single-digit support.
Those numbers, though, showed some upward trajectory for Nguyen from a few weeks earlier as her rivals have largely remained stagnant. An early August poll from GSG found Koh leading with 34% as Beccia and Nguyen took 15% and 14%, respectively. No one else has released any surveys all summer.
Poll Pile
SD-Sen: Impact Research for Brian Bengs:
Bengs (I): 44, Mike Rounds (R-inc): 44.
TX-Sen: Slingshot Strategies for Texas Public Opinion Research:
James Talarico (D): 48, Ken Paxton (R): 42.
July: 45-40 Talarico.
CT-Gov: University of New Hampshire:
Ned Lamont (D-inc): 52, Ryan Fazio (R): 37.
June: 49-36 Lamont.
MA-Gov: UNH:
Maura Healey (D-inc): 54, Michael Minogue (R): 30. (June: 51-32 Healey)
Healey (D-inc): 55, Brian Shortsleeve (R): 28. (June: 50-32 Healey)
NH-Gov: UNH:
Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 49, Cinde Warmington (D): 39.
June: 44-39 Ayotte.
PA-Gov: Franklin & Marshall College:
Josh Shapiro (D-inc): 50, Stacy Garrity (R): 25.
June: 50-28 Shapiro.
RI-Gov (D): UNH:
Helena Foulkes: 56, Dan McKee (inc): 18.
June: 42-22 Foulkes.
RI-Gov: UNH:
Foulkes (D): 42, Elaine Pelino (R): 20, Ken Block (I): 18.
McKee (D-inc): 26, Block (I): 25, Pelino (R): 19.
Foulkes (D): 40, Block (I): 19, Aaron Guckian (R): 15.
McKee (D-inc): 27, Block (I): 26, Guckian (R): 17.
SC-Gov: Hart Research Associates for Jermaine Johnson:
Alan Wilson (R): 50, Johnson (D): 42.
TX-Gov: Slingshot:
Greg Abbott (R-inc): 49, Gina Hinojosa (D): 42.
July: 45-42 Abbott.
AZ-02: Peak Insights for Eli Crane:
Crane (R-inc): 53, Jonathan Nez (D): 42.
KY-06: Lake Research Partners for House Majority PAC:
Zach Dembo (D): 45, Ralph Alvarado (R): 44.
NC-03: Tulchin Research for HMP:
Greg Murphy (R-inc): 44, Raymond Smith (D): 41.
TX-AG: Slingshot:
Mayes Middleton (R): 44, Nathan Johnson (D): 41.
July: 39-38 Middleton.
TX-LG: Slingshot:
Dan Patrick (R-inc): 47, Vikki Goodwin (D): 41.
TX Comptroller: Slingshot:
Don Huffines (R-inc): 43, Sarah Eckhardt (D): 41.
TX Agriculture Commissioner: Slingshot:
Nate Sheets (R): 44, Clayton Tucker (D): 40.
TX Land Commissioner: Slingshot:
Dawn Buckingham (R-inc): 44, Benjamin Flores (D): 40.
TX Railroad Commissioner: Slingshot:
Bo French (R): 45, Jon Rosenthal (D): 41.
I see that The Downballot is now being quoted by the Cook Political Report. Kudos!
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