Sample size of one: one of my in-laws in rural MN is a strong Dem but doesn't seem to like Flanagan (we had this discussion before the primary). Not sure why, and she didn't mention anything about hers or Craig's levels of moderateness. Maybe an intangible thing? Still, when it comes to the general she will probably vote for her (voting for the Rep is out of the picture, she said!). So maybe the undecideds are just eventual Flanagan voters?
I'm pretty sure Quantus and TIPP are Republican aligned/leaning pollsters which gives some context
I also think that, in my personal opinion, Tafoya is one of the strongest GOP recruits this cycle. I think she's got some name recognition as a sideline reporter for the NFL, and seems to come off as a less overtly insane Republican, compared to MAGA hero Mike Lindell. But in the end I don't think it'll be that close, not in the state where ICE murdered two civilians.
On paper she's a strong recruit. But since she's began her campaign, she's come off as someone who's ashamed to be Minnesotan, putting the state down frequently.
I'll be eager to see how Tafoya holds up under scrutiny if and when she actually gets asked any hard questions. I haven't been impressed at all so far but I'm not the target audience. A lot of moderates are looking for an excuse not to vote for Flanagan so I want to see if Tafoya is capable of giving it to them.
I predicted multiple times on here that Minnesota might be a problem this year and that Peggy Flanagan was gonna be a weak candidate that would give the GOP an opening. We've seen a few sets of numbers backing this up. The national environment will probably still be enough for Democrats to prevail but anybody expecting a repeat of 2018 in the Gopher State is likely to be very disappointed.
I mean, maybe it'll be a little closer than it otherwise would have been, but I don't see how MN-Sen is anything other than Safe D in this environment. I also don't see Flanagan as controversial in the way AES or Hong are. Yeah, she's a little to the left of the state, but she's a solid government official. I don't think it's gonna be a problem.
I was not alive on September 11, 2001 (yes, I am *that* young), but I still took time out of my day to remember and commemorate the victims. It's hard to believe something so earth-shattering could happen today, but since that day it seems our politics have become more hateful. Rest in peace to the victims, and condolences to the families.
I didn't like Dubya, but I appreciated him hugging all of us telling us it would be okay. And he didn't whip up pogroms against the Muslim American community which we know Trump would have gladly done before the dust settled in Ground Zero.
Also I went through the Google and saw the compassion the entire world showed America after 9/11. From the Canadians providing shelter to thousands of Americans who were flying over the Atlantic on 9/11 and couldn't get back home due to the closure of American airspace to Queen Elizabeth II ordering the Star Spangled Banner to be played during the changing of the guard.
I was reading some 9/11 history and saw pictures from a Canadian airport, filled to the brim with American planes after our airspace was closed. It almost made me tear up.
Canadians have shown so much kindness towards the US for so long, and this is how we repay them? If Canadians never trust us again, I don't think I can blame them.
Dubya didn't do that, but he did totally ruin things by abusing his negligence in ignoring all the threats by demoting or firing the warners, promoting and decorating the ignorers, instituting pervasive spying on all telecommunications by Americans, attacking Iraq, a country that had nothing to do with the attacks, protecting the Saudi regime, which is increasingly obviously complicit in the attacks, and presiding over a campaign of systematic torture and detention without trial.
I was working 8 blocks away and had to walk home through what felt like a wasteland (at least until I hit the Village). I then spent the next 5 days holed up with my roommates and our girlfriends. It was a crazy, heartbreaking day. What was lovely was the aftermath - it was the most united I've seen our country in my lifetime.
It's not at all earth-shattering to imagine something like that happening today, especially with scofflaw tech employees warning us there's 10% chance of AI annihilating our entire species in the next three years.
Even if it doesn't come to extermination of the human race, expect some system issue with AI that will cause incalculable disruption that will dwarf September 11 by orders of magnitude.
I lived in the Chicago Suburbs and was in 8th Grade at the time. We were late for school that day. My mom always had Good Morning America on TV and as we were leaving I watched the 2nd Plane hit. I was out in the soccer fields for Gym when I heard about the Pentagon and thought it was too crazy to have actually happened. Then we watched the news coverage for the rest of the school day.
It was a non-teaching day for me, so I got a slow start to the morning in Texas. I turned on The Today Show either right before the first plane hit or shortly thereafter. My university held classes the next day, and my students were in shock. One student, who was in ROTC had a planned trip to the Pentagon scheduled for the next week. When he came in fatigues, there was a special silence in that class. Later, he told me that he would have been in the area where the plane hit. He later withdrew from classes, probably because he was deployed.
I didn't talk much to the class about what had happened. They were being hit with it hourly outside the classroom. I told them that it was ok to turn off the TV (it wasn't yet a phone culture), and that we would use our literature class as a brief respite. They seemed to appreciate that approach. I also suggested donating blood to ease the blood supply. That was before we knew that there would be very few injured; most had died when the towers fell.
Quick overview of the candidates. I disagree with the author that Indiana has four good choices, as I find Engling unimpressive. Note that Bayh is calling for an audit of the office, which given its current Republican occupant, is the last thing that Republicans want.
They must be using Census Bureau definitions of regions, some of which are outdated at best. MD, DE, and DC are not the South today and haven't been for a long time.
WV is a tougher case; it was formed as a breakaway from VA in the Civil War, but in some ways including voting is more Southern (ie redder) than Virginia now. (VA itself seems to be getting much less southern culturally and especially politically as time goes by, but there's still enough of a southern presence and heritage that it can fit in the region, unlike places north of the Potomac.) Culturally, West Virginia is distinctly Appalachian, which many distinguish from Southern; geographically it borders Midwest, South, and Northeast without entirely fitting into any of them.
What a coincidence. Yesterday, I was in an Environmental Sociology class that prominently discussed the negative effects of data centers, and the leading story today is them becoming a campaign issue in PA-01.
Good for Harvie. I personally oppose data centers so I’m glad this is becoming a wedge issue. Especially after Trump’s meltdown about them being opposed.
The reaction to data centers reminds me of the solar power debate that Republicans in my area of Indiana used to put their MAGA people into place. It's good to see that the paranoia cuts both ways. I should say that I oppose the proliferation of data centers, which is becoming a bipartisan issue. The solar array issues were more complex, in part because the companies that were going to come in ignored the culture of this farming community, nor was it clear that any of the electricity was going to benefit people locally but would be sent off to big cities.
I went door-knocking in Bucks last week for a state rep candidate and talked to people about data centers. A lot of the people that I talked to at the door are not fans of data centers and said that they will support those who are in favor of stopping data centers. The state rep candidate has opposition to data centers as one of their top priorities, and personally, knowing that Bob Harvie has been stopping and listening to everyone he meets and knows how unpopular the issue of building data centers has become, this is a good ad to use against Fitz.
I know that Pearson poll is an internal, but given the partisan lean of the district, that is an absolutely crazily close result. Here’s to hoping it will at least be close-ish. I could see him getting a result similar to Aftyn Behn in the special election she was in.
we (national climate groups that have endorsed Pearson) see his race as the most important in the country regarding voting rights. He's the face of being gerrymandered. He's also making data centers his lead issue.
RL I respect your great heart on climate change & believe that along with democracy preservation it's the most important issue of our time. Nevertheless I think that this "....see his race as the most important in the country regarding voting rights..." is not good strategic thinking in the slightest. This is not a winnable race. And an unwinnable race should not--by definition--be "the most important in the country". [I'll give 2:1 odds to anyone who wants to bet me on the results]. It speaks to my fellow progressives' infatuation with symbolism over results. My somewhat lonely electoral political career (operative, not candidate) was spent navigating between the Charybdis of this kind of thinking & the Scylla of hack Dems who would rationalize voting for Dems no matter how evil & corrupt they were. How about the Left end of the possible?
There's a different playbook now than when you were an operative. Stranger things have happened in politics lately than a Trump +20 seat going to Democrats. Nothing is off the table in November.
Do I predict a Rep. Brent Taylor in January? Of course. But would I be surprised at a Pearson win? Maybe for a few seconds.
that's what I thought too, until we interviewed Justin. I usually ask candidates some variation on the theme of "how are you going to win?" and if all they do is repeat the word "community" a lot, my eyes glaze over and I write them off. Justin had numbers. He put in the work to calculate a win number in the new gerrymandered district, and is working the plan to turn people out. He's genuinely impressive, and I say this as someone who's interviewed a lot of candidates and don't impress easy.
Well as my grandmother used to say, I wish both of you from your lips to God's ears. I would love to be wrong in my prediction. Jaz if you're going to make this assertion, "Stranger things have happened in politics lately than a Trump +20 seat going to Democrats", you need to back that up with example(s) of that happening in a regularly scheduled(not special) election. RL, I appreciate your quite non-defensive and very thoughtful & info packed response. But I stand by my analysis. In a Blue Tsunami( not just a wave), there's a chance(barely) that Pearson could win. And then we'd be renting the seat for 2 years because it's just too Republican. Why not focus on electing people who have a chance to have a political career, not just a 2 year rental? There are easily more than 50 Republican held seats where we have a better chance than TN-9. Some of those Dems are under-resourced.
Honestly, the poll isn't that outlandish, if you assume the undecideds are rather conservative, and in the end break mostly Republican. A 8-10 point swing seems to be in line with the general ballot.
While I don't see any way he wins, districts like this being close bodes well for our chances at a solid overall win in the House and a small Senate majority, not to mention tons of downballot races nationwide.
Given the Democratic lean of Iowa polling in recent cycles, I'm inclined to be a bit more on the conservative side of interpreting any Iowa poll, but Turek is unquestionably very well positioned to capture lightning in a bottle here. And he has nearly eight weeks for the political climate to get more poisonous for the GOP and help make his case.
People forget that Iowa like many states, is not solid or rigidly red or blue. It's very much a swing state and candidates can matter and influence it a lot! It just happened that Trump was perceived as a populist that the farmers and locals related to, or at least preferred. Obama won Iowa imo twice not because it was more left leaning, but because he campaigned on a populist message with core platforms like anti-war and universal healthcare.
Related to the topline item of PA Reps and data centers, it looks like Rob Bresnahan is trying to campaign against data centers being placed in local communities despite touting their contribution to economic growth early last year
A constituent of his is also complaining to the Office of Congressional Conduct that Bresnahan broke federal law and House rules by using video, supposedly an "official communication with constituents," as part of his campaign
Rep. Jimmy Gomez is behind DSA/Justice Democrats challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres 41-38 in a recent poll. Poll is from an anti-Gomez group, and was apparently done prior to his sexual harassment scandal really setting in.
So, I took an 8 hr 45 min flight back to the land of insane politics again - not that Germany's politics are anything to write home about. But seeing a story that a contractor who worked on the White House pool said they were at fault, not vandals, was a reminder of the insanity that goes on here. We at least have a chance to clip its wings in the midterms, but the amount of unconstitutional power the Supreme Court has given the president means things will continue to be frightening here. Sorry if this is slightly off-topic.
I’ve been thinking about 2028 primaries again. Going to ask posters here — who do you think could be a vulnerable primary target, from either party, by any group, or for any reason? (Do note that I am not necessarily endorsing any of these — just speculating on what might happen.)
Obviously John Fetterman will be a Senate target if he even runs/as a Dem, either by Conor Lamb, Chris Deluzio, or someone else. (Summer Lee floated it. I don’t think she’d win the general. Ditto for Larry Krasner. If he wants to run for something, I could see Philly mayor being a more obvious target since Cherelle Parker is not liked by the left.)
After watching how well the left did in Providence on Wednesday, I suspect Gabe Amo might be vulnerable to a primary. One of my RI family members in his district hates him and said he isn’t doing anything, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either Aaron Regunberg tried again à La Nida Allam, or another progressive tried to primary him.
I’ve heard talk of Jim Himes in CT also being a target, with potential challenger names including State Rep. Antonio Felipe or Bridgeport City Councilmember Aikeem Boyd.
Speaking of Allam, I believe she will absolutely try again. Mike Quigley also did not great in his primary and is now challenging beleaguered Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson from the right, so I wonder if he might get a challenge. Don’t know if Ald. Matt Martin still lives in the district. Maybe him. Or Kat Abghuzaleh could jump into the district and run, like someone on Bluesky suggested. Grace Meng did remarkably poorly against an underfunded challenger, so I could see her getting a primary challenge as well. Not sure who but I know there are people in the district who I could see trying. Ritchie Torres is also despised by the left, so maybe a stronger challenger like Gustavo Rivera could try. Hillary Scholten and Jeremy Moss also both got in trouble for refusing to back AES, so I could see both being challenged. Maybe Mallory McMorrow for the latter. And Primary School author Kevin noted on Bluesky that Gwen Moore did not do great, relative to the complete unknown who ran against her, indicating possible vulnerability to a challenge.
Conversely, I guarantee you DAC will get a challenge from the center. Espaillat’s allies have attempted this in the past with others who crossed him, and DAC is a bit extreme (even for me, I don’t like her Ukraine stance) so a primary is inevitable. Don’t remember where but I saw speculation NYC Councilman Shaun Abreu might try. NYC Councilman Yusef Salaam was also mentioned, and I think he’d be the favorite if he ran, given his reputation, name, and similar base of black Harlem.
Of the recent crop of progressives, I could see the NJ machine trying to take out Analilia Mejia as well. Ditto for the PA machine and Chris Rabb. Maybe the NY machine will try to take out Claire Valdez too, but I don’t see them succeeding. If they do try, I could see Brooklyn DA Eric Gonzalez being a contender.
After Luke Bronin won his primary against John Larson, I also suspect age primaries may occur too. I’ll leave that up to discussion as to who might not just retire. And GOP primaries are a whole other beast. Anyone know any GOP legislators who Trump doesn’t like and could take out with an endorsement? Lisa Murkowski probably I think, and definitely that IN State Senator who just won by court ruling. I could also see some really looney or scandal-plagued legislators go out too, like we just saw with Cory Mills and Andy Ogles. Anyone else who might go out for that reason?
Curious to see everyone’s thoughts. Who might be vulnerable? Who might give it a go?
I'm surprised by the idea that Jim Himes could be vulnerable. Is Greenwich no longer the archetypal pro-business Democrat town? It used to be a bastion of moderate Republicanism when that still existed.
On DAC, I have no take on whether she'd be vulnerable to a challenge in 2028, and I think how good her constituent service is will play a major role, but I am definitely a fan of what I've seen of Yusef Salaam (to be fair, I haven't followed his record extremely closely, only somewhat, but I've been impressed) and definitely think it would be great to have an exonerated former convict in Congress.
I think the Himes challenge was motivated by bad votes he made/Analilia Mejia winning a similar suburban district. Then again, they said that about the seat Melissa Bean won, so who knows.
I’m going to get crucified by the left for this but I’d back a Salaam challenge. DAC’s refusal to back Ukraine was a red line for me and I will not support her in a primary for that reason.
Yeah, I don't see Himes' district (where I grew up - my first congressional vote was for Chris Shayes) being DSA-friendly. It's a mix of wealthy white suburbanites (as opposed to urbanites) and minority heavy urban areas - neither of which are core DSA consituencies.
Some of these I agree with, but I'll focus on the ones I'm less convinced of.
I doubt Amo get successfully primaried, yes Providence ousted its mayor, but that's the most progressive part of the district, the southeast is somewhat more moderate, and northeast of the state is conservacrat land.
Although Quigley's performance was weak, I also doubt his district is the most fertile ground for a primary challenge, his district takes in a lot northern Chicago and nearby suburbs, which aren't particularly progressive.
Moore is fairly progressive all things considered, and while that wasn't enough for Degette, the much larger Black voter base (who tend to like their entrenched political leaders) makes it fairly unlikely she'd go down.
I doubt the machine in NJ would try to go after Mejia unless she screws up or badly underperforms in the general, she's generally avoiding stepping on people's toes.
Yeah, I agree on Tlaib. I think Omar is vulnerable to someone nearly as left as she is, if there is only one challenger, and if the DSA is seen as giving too many seats back to Rs.
She'd also be vulnerable to a progressive challenger because she in particular performs weakly in elections. The thing is, the Minnesotans on this board have consistently stated that no progressive would be willing to challenge her, so the likelihood seems to be that she continues to be opposed from the right and win more or less close primary elections as long as she wants to continue holding that seat.
Yes I know it's damn Rasmussen of all pollsters, which I guess is still better than Atlas Intel and Trafalgar, but fwiw, it shows Pappas up with a believable lead in NH. No way in hell though the Republican opponent is that far below 40 though, not even in a Democratic wave year.
Well, the NH primary ended a few days ago so reality is starting to settle in.
The poll may be too good to be true but Trump also endorsed John Sununu even while Sununu was a critic of him going back to 2016 (was this way in 2024). This may create problems for him in his Senate bid in the general election considering Sununu is as classic of an old school Republican as you can get these days.
Also, although Kamala Harris won NH in 2024 by less than Joe Biden did in 2020, her margin of victory in the state is still greater than Hillary Clinton's back in 2016. In 2016, Clinton only won NH by .4% points.
The NH-SEN race should still be a Lean Democrat race regardless of whether this Rasmussen poll is accurate or not.
Two Quantus senate polls:
Moody 50 Nixon 43
Flanagan 49 Tafoya 45
https://quantusinsights.org/polling/f/new-quantus-polls-moody-leads-in-florida-flanagan-in-minnesota
A LITTLE too close on Minn there… anyone from that state want to give the vibes on the ground ?
Sample size of one: one of my in-laws in rural MN is a strong Dem but doesn't seem to like Flanagan (we had this discussion before the primary). Not sure why, and she didn't mention anything about hers or Craig's levels of moderateness. Maybe an intangible thing? Still, when it comes to the general she will probably vote for her (voting for the Rep is out of the picture, she said!). So maybe the undecideds are just eventual Flanagan voters?
I'm pretty sure Quantus and TIPP are Republican aligned/leaning pollsters which gives some context
I also think that, in my personal opinion, Tafoya is one of the strongest GOP recruits this cycle. I think she's got some name recognition as a sideline reporter for the NFL, and seems to come off as a less overtly insane Republican, compared to MAGA hero Mike Lindell. But in the end I don't think it'll be that close, not in the state where ICE murdered two civilians.
On paper she's a strong recruit. But since she's began her campaign, she's come off as someone who's ashamed to be Minnesotan, putting the state down frequently.
I'll be eager to see how Tafoya holds up under scrutiny if and when she actually gets asked any hard questions. I haven't been impressed at all so far but I'm not the target audience. A lot of moderates are looking for an excuse not to vote for Flanagan so I want to see if Tafoya is capable of giving it to them.
I predicted multiple times on here that Minnesota might be a problem this year and that Peggy Flanagan was gonna be a weak candidate that would give the GOP an opening. We've seen a few sets of numbers backing this up. The national environment will probably still be enough for Democrats to prevail but anybody expecting a repeat of 2018 in the Gopher State is likely to be very disappointed.
I mean, maybe it'll be a little closer than it otherwise would have been, but I don't see how MN-Sen is anything other than Safe D in this environment. I also don't see Flanagan as controversial in the way AES or Hong are. Yeah, she's a little to the left of the state, but she's a solid government official. I don't think it's gonna be a problem.
Flanagan is polling about as well as Tina Smith did in 2020, unless we think Tina Smith was also a "weak candidate. "
I was not alive on September 11, 2001 (yes, I am *that* young), but I still took time out of my day to remember and commemorate the victims. It's hard to believe something so earth-shattering could happen today, but since that day it seems our politics have become more hateful. Rest in peace to the victims, and condolences to the families.
I was one year old when it occurred. Miraculously, no one in my NYC church died that day. RIP to the victims as well.
I didn't like Dubya, but I appreciated him hugging all of us telling us it would be okay. And he didn't whip up pogroms against the Muslim American community which we know Trump would have gladly done before the dust settled in Ground Zero.
Also I went through the Google and saw the compassion the entire world showed America after 9/11. From the Canadians providing shelter to thousands of Americans who were flying over the Atlantic on 9/11 and couldn't get back home due to the closure of American airspace to Queen Elizabeth II ordering the Star Spangled Banner to be played during the changing of the guard.
I wish we could go back to those days.
I was reading some 9/11 history and saw pictures from a Canadian airport, filled to the brim with American planes after our airspace was closed. It almost made me tear up.
Canadians have shown so much kindness towards the US for so long, and this is how we repay them? If Canadians never trust us again, I don't think I can blame them.
That was my thought seeing some of the memorial pictures - how badly we've squandered our goodwill and alliances under Trump. It is heartbreaking.
Dubya didn't do that, but he did totally ruin things by abusing his negligence in ignoring all the threats by demoting or firing the warners, promoting and decorating the ignorers, instituting pervasive spying on all telecommunications by Americans, attacking Iraq, a country that had nothing to do with the attacks, protecting the Saudi regime, which is increasingly obviously complicit in the attacks, and presiding over a campaign of systematic torture and detention without trial.
There's a really good play based on the Canadians sheltering American's on 9/11 called Come From Away. A video version of it is on Peacock
One of my best friends is from Gander and knows everyone in Gander who's a character in that play.
I was working 8 blocks away and had to walk home through what felt like a wasteland (at least until I hit the Village). I then spent the next 5 days holed up with my roommates and our girlfriends. It was a crazy, heartbreaking day. What was lovely was the aftermath - it was the most united I've seen our country in my lifetime.
It's not at all earth-shattering to imagine something like that happening today, especially with scofflaw tech employees warning us there's 10% chance of AI annihilating our entire species in the next three years.
Even if it doesn't come to extermination of the human race, expect some system issue with AI that will cause incalculable disruption that will dwarf September 11 by orders of magnitude.
That's a pretty gloomy way to look at things. Doesn't mean you're wrong, I guess.
I lived in the Chicago Suburbs and was in 8th Grade at the time. We were late for school that day. My mom always had Good Morning America on TV and as we were leaving I watched the 2nd Plane hit. I was out in the soccer fields for Gym when I heard about the Pentagon and thought it was too crazy to have actually happened. Then we watched the news coverage for the rest of the school day.
It was a non-teaching day for me, so I got a slow start to the morning in Texas. I turned on The Today Show either right before the first plane hit or shortly thereafter. My university held classes the next day, and my students were in shock. One student, who was in ROTC had a planned trip to the Pentagon scheduled for the next week. When he came in fatigues, there was a special silence in that class. Later, he told me that he would have been in the area where the plane hit. He later withdrew from classes, probably because he was deployed.
I didn't talk much to the class about what had happened. They were being hit with it hourly outside the classroom. I told them that it was ok to turn off the TV (it wasn't yet a phone culture), and that we would use our literature class as a brief respite. They seemed to appreciate that approach. I also suggested donating blood to ease the blood supply. That was before we knew that there would be very few injured; most had died when the towers fell.
Indiana Republicans and Governor Braun are throwing money into the Secretary of State Race: to back Engling.
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/09/10/indiana-republicans-starting-ads-for-engling-a-month-after-democrat-bayh-hit-the-airwaves/
Quick overview of the candidates. I disagree with the author that Indiana has four good choices, as I find Engling unimpressive. Note that Bayh is calling for an audit of the office, which given its current Republican occupant, is the last thing that Republicans want.
https://indianacapitalchronicle.com/2026/09/11/secretary-of-state-race-is-setting-the-bar-for-a-quality-contest/?_bhlid=ad98967d41b401eb4039e31414eba7727c4f656f
Annette Taddeo should just rest on her laurels, now that she's made it to this elite list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_perennial_candidates_in_the_United_States
Not only does that list need updated, I also don't appreciate they put WV and MD in the South.
They must be using Census Bureau definitions of regions, some of which are outdated at best. MD, DE, and DC are not the South today and haven't been for a long time.
WV is a tougher case; it was formed as a breakaway from VA in the Civil War, but in some ways including voting is more Southern (ie redder) than Virginia now. (VA itself seems to be getting much less southern culturally and especially politically as time goes by, but there's still enough of a southern presence and heritage that it can fit in the region, unlike places north of the Potomac.) Culturally, West Virginia is distinctly Appalachian, which many distinguish from Southern; geographically it borders Midwest, South, and Northeast without entirely fitting into any of them.
What a coincidence. Yesterday, I was in an Environmental Sociology class that prominently discussed the negative effects of data centers, and the leading story today is them becoming a campaign issue in PA-01.
Good for Harvie. I personally oppose data centers so I’m glad this is becoming a wedge issue. Especially after Trump’s meltdown about them being opposed.
I don't personally know anyone that supports them. Even my diehard MAGA family.
The reaction to data centers reminds me of the solar power debate that Republicans in my area of Indiana used to put their MAGA people into place. It's good to see that the paranoia cuts both ways. I should say that I oppose the proliferation of data centers, which is becoming a bipartisan issue. The solar array issues were more complex, in part because the companies that were going to come in ignored the culture of this farming community, nor was it clear that any of the electricity was going to benefit people locally but would be sent off to big cities.
I went door-knocking in Bucks last week for a state rep candidate and talked to people about data centers. A lot of the people that I talked to at the door are not fans of data centers and said that they will support those who are in favor of stopping data centers. The state rep candidate has opposition to data centers as one of their top priorities, and personally, knowing that Bob Harvie has been stopping and listening to everyone he meets and knows how unpopular the issue of building data centers has become, this is a good ad to use against Fitz.
I know that Pearson poll is an internal, but given the partisan lean of the district, that is an absolutely crazily close result. Here’s to hoping it will at least be close-ish. I could see him getting a result similar to Aftyn Behn in the special election she was in.
we (national climate groups that have endorsed Pearson) see his race as the most important in the country regarding voting rights. He's the face of being gerrymandered. He's also making data centers his lead issue.
RL I respect your great heart on climate change & believe that along with democracy preservation it's the most important issue of our time. Nevertheless I think that this "....see his race as the most important in the country regarding voting rights..." is not good strategic thinking in the slightest. This is not a winnable race. And an unwinnable race should not--by definition--be "the most important in the country". [I'll give 2:1 odds to anyone who wants to bet me on the results]. It speaks to my fellow progressives' infatuation with symbolism over results. My somewhat lonely electoral political career (operative, not candidate) was spent navigating between the Charybdis of this kind of thinking & the Scylla of hack Dems who would rationalize voting for Dems no matter how evil & corrupt they were. How about the Left end of the possible?
There's a different playbook now than when you were an operative. Stranger things have happened in politics lately than a Trump +20 seat going to Democrats. Nothing is off the table in November.
Do I predict a Rep. Brent Taylor in January? Of course. But would I be surprised at a Pearson win? Maybe for a few seconds.
that's what I thought too, until we interviewed Justin. I usually ask candidates some variation on the theme of "how are you going to win?" and if all they do is repeat the word "community" a lot, my eyes glaze over and I write them off. Justin had numbers. He put in the work to calculate a win number in the new gerrymandered district, and is working the plan to turn people out. He's genuinely impressive, and I say this as someone who's interviewed a lot of candidates and don't impress easy.
Well as my grandmother used to say, I wish both of you from your lips to God's ears. I would love to be wrong in my prediction. Jaz if you're going to make this assertion, "Stranger things have happened in politics lately than a Trump +20 seat going to Democrats", you need to back that up with example(s) of that happening in a regularly scheduled(not special) election. RL, I appreciate your quite non-defensive and very thoughtful & info packed response. But I stand by my analysis. In a Blue Tsunami( not just a wave), there's a chance(barely) that Pearson could win. And then we'd be renting the seat for 2 years because it's just too Republican. Why not focus on electing people who have a chance to have a political career, not just a 2 year rental? There are easily more than 50 Republican held seats where we have a better chance than TN-9. Some of those Dems are under-resourced.
Love the positivity and optimism and I'm a fan of his, but I don't see any way he can win, even in this environment.
Honestly, the poll isn't that outlandish, if you assume the undecideds are rather conservative, and in the end break mostly Republican. A 8-10 point swing seems to be in line with the general ballot.
While I don't see any way he wins, districts like this being close bodes well for our chances at a solid overall win in the House and a small Senate majority, not to mention tons of downballot races nationwide.
Iowa You Gov:
Turek 44
Hinson 43
Sand 50
Lahn 39
Trump approval 41/57
https://d3nkl3psvxxpe9.cloudfront.net/documents/iowa_election_20260903.pdf
This is like the 3rd poll in the past few days that has Turek up. Is it real???
Today: Rasmussen
Turek 45
Hinson 40
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Today: YouGov
Turek 47
Hinson 43
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Wednesday: GSG
Turek 46
Hinson 42
Given the Democratic lean of Iowa polling in recent cycles, I'm inclined to be a bit more on the conservative side of interpreting any Iowa poll, but Turek is unquestionably very well positioned to capture lightning in a bottle here. And he has nearly eight weeks for the political climate to get more poisonous for the GOP and help make his case.
I believe him being between 45-47% it's those last 2-3% that will really make the difference.
People forget that Iowa like many states, is not solid or rigidly red or blue. It's very much a swing state and candidates can matter and influence it a lot! It just happened that Trump was perceived as a populist that the farmers and locals related to, or at least preferred. Obama won Iowa imo twice not because it was more left leaning, but because he campaigned on a populist message with core platforms like anti-war and universal healthcare.
Related to the topline item of PA Reps and data centers, it looks like Rob Bresnahan is trying to campaign against data centers being placed in local communities despite touting their contribution to economic growth early last year
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gop-rep-rob-bresnahan-data-centers-pennsylvania/
A constituent of his is also complaining to the Office of Congressional Conduct that Bresnahan broke federal law and House rules by using video, supposedly an "official communication with constituents," as part of his campaign
https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2026/08/rob-bresnahan-ethics-complaint-campaign-video-federal-government/
I don’t think it will work. On top of suddenly changing his position, he also still has his insider trading allegations hanging over his head.
CA-34:
https://www.semafor.com/article/09/10/2026/california-dem-faces-election-turbulence
https://bsky.app/profile/reginageorgebush.bsky.social/post/3mvatmmiy2s2c
Rep. Jimmy Gomez is behind DSA/Justice Democrats challenger Angela Gonzales-Torres 41-38 in a recent poll. Poll is from an anti-Gomez group, and was apparently done prior to his sexual harassment scandal really setting in.
I don’t think this is a good sign for Gomez.
Not surprising at all.
Hope we get rid of all of these House members who have these issues.
It's 41-38 Gonzales-Torres. The poll was Sept. 1-5, which is about two weeks after the Ethics Committee confirmed it was investigating him. https://www.the-downballot.com/p/morning-digest-ethics-committee-investigation
Got it. Thanks Jeff.
I do still think Gomez is vulnerable. This is also a really lefty district, and he has the scandal hanging over him.
So, I took an 8 hr 45 min flight back to the land of insane politics again - not that Germany's politics are anything to write home about. But seeing a story that a contractor who worked on the White House pool said they were at fault, not vandals, was a reminder of the insanity that goes on here. We at least have a chance to clip its wings in the midterms, but the amount of unconstitutional power the Supreme Court has given the president means things will continue to be frightening here. Sorry if this is slightly off-topic.
I’ve been thinking about 2028 primaries again. Going to ask posters here — who do you think could be a vulnerable primary target, from either party, by any group, or for any reason? (Do note that I am not necessarily endorsing any of these — just speculating on what might happen.)
Obviously John Fetterman will be a Senate target if he even runs/as a Dem, either by Conor Lamb, Chris Deluzio, or someone else. (Summer Lee floated it. I don’t think she’d win the general. Ditto for Larry Krasner. If he wants to run for something, I could see Philly mayor being a more obvious target since Cherelle Parker is not liked by the left.)
After watching how well the left did in Providence on Wednesday, I suspect Gabe Amo might be vulnerable to a primary. One of my RI family members in his district hates him and said he isn’t doing anything, and I wouldn’t be surprised if either Aaron Regunberg tried again à La Nida Allam, or another progressive tried to primary him.
I’ve heard talk of Jim Himes in CT also being a target, with potential challenger names including State Rep. Antonio Felipe or Bridgeport City Councilmember Aikeem Boyd.
Speaking of Allam, I believe she will absolutely try again. Mike Quigley also did not great in his primary and is now challenging beleaguered Chicago mayor Brandon Johnson from the right, so I wonder if he might get a challenge. Don’t know if Ald. Matt Martin still lives in the district. Maybe him. Or Kat Abghuzaleh could jump into the district and run, like someone on Bluesky suggested. Grace Meng did remarkably poorly against an underfunded challenger, so I could see her getting a primary challenge as well. Not sure who but I know there are people in the district who I could see trying. Ritchie Torres is also despised by the left, so maybe a stronger challenger like Gustavo Rivera could try. Hillary Scholten and Jeremy Moss also both got in trouble for refusing to back AES, so I could see both being challenged. Maybe Mallory McMorrow for the latter. And Primary School author Kevin noted on Bluesky that Gwen Moore did not do great, relative to the complete unknown who ran against her, indicating possible vulnerability to a challenge.
Conversely, I guarantee you DAC will get a challenge from the center. Espaillat’s allies have attempted this in the past with others who crossed him, and DAC is a bit extreme (even for me, I don’t like her Ukraine stance) so a primary is inevitable. Don’t remember where but I saw speculation NYC Councilman Shaun Abreu might try. NYC Councilman Yusef Salaam was also mentioned, and I think he’d be the favorite if he ran, given his reputation, name, and similar base of black Harlem.
Of the recent crop of progressives, I could see the NJ machine trying to take out Analilia Mejia as well. Ditto for the PA machine and Chris Rabb. Maybe the NY machine will try to take out Claire Valdez too, but I don’t see them succeeding. If they do try, I could see Brooklyn DA Eric Gonzalez being a contender.
After Luke Bronin won his primary against John Larson, I also suspect age primaries may occur too. I’ll leave that up to discussion as to who might not just retire. And GOP primaries are a whole other beast. Anyone know any GOP legislators who Trump doesn’t like and could take out with an endorsement? Lisa Murkowski probably I think, and definitely that IN State Senator who just won by court ruling. I could also see some really looney or scandal-plagued legislators go out too, like we just saw with Cory Mills and Andy Ogles. Anyone else who might go out for that reason?
Curious to see everyone’s thoughts. Who might be vulnerable? Who might give it a go?
I'm surprised by the idea that Jim Himes could be vulnerable. Is Greenwich no longer the archetypal pro-business Democrat town? It used to be a bastion of moderate Republicanism when that still existed.
On DAC, I have no take on whether she'd be vulnerable to a challenge in 2028, and I think how good her constituent service is will play a major role, but I am definitely a fan of what I've seen of Yusef Salaam (to be fair, I haven't followed his record extremely closely, only somewhat, but I've been impressed) and definitely think it would be great to have an exonerated former convict in Congress.
I think the Himes challenge was motivated by bad votes he made/Analilia Mejia winning a similar suburban district. Then again, they said that about the seat Melissa Bean won, so who knows.
I’m going to get crucified by the left for this but I’d back a Salaam challenge. DAC’s refusal to back Ukraine was a red line for me and I will not support her in a primary for that reason.
Why would the left be so mad about Yusef Salaam?
DAC is in the DSA and is apparently seen as an important Rep to defend. It’s not so much Salaam, it’s more defending DAC for the left.
Yeah, I don't see Himes' district (where I grew up - my first congressional vote was for Chris Shayes) being DSA-friendly. It's a mix of wealthy white suburbanites (as opposed to urbanites) and minority heavy urban areas - neither of which are core DSA consituencies.
Some of these I agree with, but I'll focus on the ones I'm less convinced of.
I doubt Amo get successfully primaried, yes Providence ousted its mayor, but that's the most progressive part of the district, the southeast is somewhat more moderate, and northeast of the state is conservacrat land.
Although Quigley's performance was weak, I also doubt his district is the most fertile ground for a primary challenge, his district takes in a lot northern Chicago and nearby suburbs, which aren't particularly progressive.
Moore is fairly progressive all things considered, and while that wasn't enough for Degette, the much larger Black voter base (who tend to like their entrenched political leaders) makes it fairly unlikely she'd go down.
I doubt the machine in NJ would try to go after Mejia unless she screws up or badly underperforms in the general, she's generally avoiding stepping on people's toes.
All good points.
If the DSA Dems underperform in November, I expect a challenge to Omar in MN and possibly Tlaib in Detroit.
And I expect both such challenges to lose if they're from the right, and in Tlaib's case, regardless. Constituent service really matters.
Yeah, I agree on Tlaib. I think Omar is vulnerable to someone nearly as left as she is, if there is only one challenger, and if the DSA is seen as giving too many seats back to Rs.
She'd also be vulnerable to a progressive challenger because she in particular performs weakly in elections. The thing is, the Minnesotans on this board have consistently stated that no progressive would be willing to challenge her, so the likelihood seems to be that she continues to be opposed from the right and win more or less close primary elections as long as she wants to continue holding that seat.
Yes I know it's damn Rasmussen of all pollsters, which I guess is still better than Atlas Intel and Trafalgar, but fwiw, it shows Pappas up with a believable lead in NH. No way in hell though the Republican opponent is that far below 40 though, not even in a Democratic wave year.
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2026/election_2026_new_hampshire_senate
Well, the NH primary ended a few days ago so reality is starting to settle in.
The poll may be too good to be true but Trump also endorsed John Sununu even while Sununu was a critic of him going back to 2016 (was this way in 2024). This may create problems for him in his Senate bid in the general election considering Sununu is as classic of an old school Republican as you can get these days.
Also, although Kamala Harris won NH in 2024 by less than Joe Biden did in 2020, her margin of victory in the state is still greater than Hillary Clinton's back in 2016. In 2016, Clinton only won NH by .4% points.
The NH-SEN race should still be a Lean Democrat race regardless of whether this Rasmussen poll is accurate or not.
https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/president
https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
https://www.cnn.com/election/2024/results/president?election-data-id=2024-PG&election-painting-mode=projection-with-lead&filter-key-races=false&filter-flipped=false&filter-remaining=false