EARLY VOTING – Thoughts on Pennsylvania from Christopher Bouzy:
"Now that we have early vote data, we can better understand what is happening on the ground in PA. In my opinion, early vote data is more reliable than polls. I successfully used early vote data in 2020 and 2022. However, you must be careful because early vote data can someti…
EARLY VOTING – Thoughts on Pennsylvania from Christopher Bouzy:
"Now that we have early vote data, we can better understand what is happening on the ground in PA. In my opinion, early vote data is more reliable than polls. I successfully used early vote data in 2020 and 2022. However, you must be careful because early vote data can sometimes be misleading.
"It is still early, and conditions on the ground may shift, but the current developments in Pennsylvania are eye-opening. As of today, 61.6% of absentee and mail-in ballot requests have come from Democrats, a significant figure that could indicate trends leading up to Election Day.
"Democrats aren't just leading in requested ballots; they are also leading in returned ballots by a whopping 72.8%. This may indicate higher enthusiasm among Democratic voters compared to Republicans. However, it is also possible that ballots from key counties are still in transit.
"But the situation for Republicans is even more dire. According to TargetSmart's race modeling data, Black voters represented just 8.8% of the Pennsylvania electorate in 2020. However, that percentage has surged dramatically, with Black voters now making up 19.5% of the vote.
"It is important to understand that while I am analyzing partisan voting patterns, the electorate doesn’t always vote along party lines. Not all Republicans will vote for Trump, and not all Democrats will vote for VP Harris. However, I estimate that Trump will lose 8-10% of Republican support in PA."
PA is, at best, 12.5% Black so that 19.5% claim is absurd. Bouzy seems like a nice guy but some of his election analysis is ridiculous. If you want quality PA election coverage, follow Charlie Wolfson (@chwolfson), Ben Forstate (@4st8) and Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
Thank you for the additional sources! (For Early Vote data I’ve mostly followed Michael McDonald’s Election Project.)
Is the final Black vote going to account for 19.5% total? Of course not! But in light of the fact that the Early Vote leans strongly Democratic, and that Philadelphia has already returned one-third of its VBM ballots (ref. Joshua Smithley, Michael McDonald), that initial percentage does not seem "absurd".
This is simply because the city centers mailing back the ballots early. Right now over 3/4 of returned ballots are from Philly, Allegheny and Montgomery counties.
In a recent NYT/Siena poll, 54% of those sampled were men – despite the fact that there are more women voters and they vote at higher rates than men. In fact, the NYT figure is the exact mirror image of the known Early Vote. So far, women account for a striking 54% of the vote!
As always, strong reason for skepticism about early vote analysis this year. It will look completely different from both 2016 and 2020. And from 2022. We have no benchmark due to the huge one-off surge in early voting in 2020, and the trend towards a new normal since. Early vote takes will split between these two themes: Democrats excited that we seem to still be voting earlier and in greater numbers than Republicans. And Republicans excited that the Dem advantage is down significantly from 2020. The truth is: Dems will win the early vote, but it will be smaller, and less blue. And Republicans will win the election day vote, but it will be larger, and less red. And of course, no accounting for how independents break and crossover voting.
Another thing to keep in mind about PA: 2020 was the first major election with no-excuse mail-in ballots, which passed in March 2019. This will be the first major "regular" election under the new law so any comparisons to prior elections need extra scrutiny.
The early mail votes from the rust belt are heavily on loyal and constant Dem voters. Most of them will vote any methods anyway. Banking the votes early just serves as an insurance, in case anything happens later impeding them getting to vote.
It probably says little about the final results, as we don’t know from these numbers, the big chunk of Trump only voters, nor their excitement level.
Nota bene: Banking the votes of loyal and reliable Dems early is valuable for campaigns because it allows them to check these voters off their GOTV lists, and thus allows them to focus on less reliable election day voters.
I feel like the smart move would likely to simply ignore "votes every time" voters altogether in your GOTV regardless of whether you have proof they voted or not. If your time/money is that valuable then using it even just to check in on a guy like me who has voted in every primary/general since I moved back to MD seems like a waste.
It's been a while since I've done direct canvassing with access to VAN and such but when we would get back at 6 or 7 PM we would go over Board of Elections data to confirm early votes and strike the early voters from call/walk lists.
I think the smarter move is for the campaigns to contact the "votes every time" voters early, ask them to please encourage their family and friends and neighbors and acquaintances to vote – and to consider volunteering for additional GOTV efforts.
EARLY VOTING – Thoughts on Pennsylvania from Christopher Bouzy:
"Now that we have early vote data, we can better understand what is happening on the ground in PA. In my opinion, early vote data is more reliable than polls. I successfully used early vote data in 2020 and 2022. However, you must be careful because early vote data can sometimes be misleading.
"It is still early, and conditions on the ground may shift, but the current developments in Pennsylvania are eye-opening. As of today, 61.6% of absentee and mail-in ballot requests have come from Democrats, a significant figure that could indicate trends leading up to Election Day.
"Democrats aren't just leading in requested ballots; they are also leading in returned ballots by a whopping 72.8%. This may indicate higher enthusiasm among Democratic voters compared to Republicans. However, it is also possible that ballots from key counties are still in transit.
"But the situation for Republicans is even more dire. According to TargetSmart's race modeling data, Black voters represented just 8.8% of the Pennsylvania electorate in 2020. However, that percentage has surged dramatically, with Black voters now making up 19.5% of the vote.
"It is important to understand that while I am analyzing partisan voting patterns, the electorate doesn’t always vote along party lines. Not all Republicans will vote for Trump, and not all Democrats will vote for VP Harris. However, I estimate that Trump will lose 8-10% of Republican support in PA."
https://spoutible.com/thread/36639336
PA is, at best, 12.5% Black so that 19.5% claim is absurd. Bouzy seems like a nice guy but some of his election analysis is ridiculous. If you want quality PA election coverage, follow Charlie Wolfson (@chwolfson), Ben Forstate (@4st8) and Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
Thank you for the additional sources! (For Early Vote data I’ve mostly followed Michael McDonald’s Election Project.)
Is the final Black vote going to account for 19.5% total? Of course not! But in light of the fact that the Early Vote leans strongly Democratic, and that Philadelphia has already returned one-third of its VBM ballots (ref. Joshua Smithley, Michael McDonald), that initial percentage does not seem "absurd".
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
This is simply because the city centers mailing back the ballots early. Right now over 3/4 of returned ballots are from Philly, Allegheny and Montgomery counties.
No one would expect the 19.5% number to last.
In a recent NYT/Siena poll, 54% of those sampled were men – despite the fact that there are more women voters and they vote at higher rates than men. In fact, the NYT figure is the exact mirror image of the known Early Vote. So far, women account for a striking 54% of the vote!
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/
(These states report gender data: CO, GA, ID, MI, NC.)
As always, strong reason for skepticism about early vote analysis this year. It will look completely different from both 2016 and 2020. And from 2022. We have no benchmark due to the huge one-off surge in early voting in 2020, and the trend towards a new normal since. Early vote takes will split between these two themes: Democrats excited that we seem to still be voting earlier and in greater numbers than Republicans. And Republicans excited that the Dem advantage is down significantly from 2020. The truth is: Dems will win the early vote, but it will be smaller, and less blue. And Republicans will win the election day vote, but it will be larger, and less red. And of course, no accounting for how independents break and crossover voting.
Another thing to keep in mind about PA: 2020 was the first major election with no-excuse mail-in ballots, which passed in March 2019. This will be the first major "regular" election under the new law so any comparisons to prior elections need extra scrutiny.
The early mail votes from the rust belt are heavily on loyal and constant Dem voters. Most of them will vote any methods anyway. Banking the votes early just serves as an insurance, in case anything happens later impeding them getting to vote.
It probably says little about the final results, as we don’t know from these numbers, the big chunk of Trump only voters, nor their excitement level.
Nota bene: Banking the votes of loyal and reliable Dems early is valuable for campaigns because it allows them to check these voters off their GOTV lists, and thus allows them to focus on less reliable election day voters.
I feel like the smart move would likely to simply ignore "votes every time" voters altogether in your GOTV regardless of whether you have proof they voted or not. If your time/money is that valuable then using it even just to check in on a guy like me who has voted in every primary/general since I moved back to MD seems like a waste.
It's been a while since I've done direct canvassing with access to VAN and such but when we would get back at 6 or 7 PM we would go over Board of Elections data to confirm early votes and strike the early voters from call/walk lists.
I think the smarter move is for the campaigns to contact the "votes every time" voters early, ask them to please encourage their family and friends and neighbors and acquaintances to vote – and to consider volunteering for additional GOTV efforts.
That's what they do. The script for early canvassing asks strongly supporting respondents whether they would be willing to volunteer.
On the postcards I’ve been writing to NC and MI, I’ve added the line: "Please encourage your friends and family to vote."
Yeah generally that is question #2 if they identify as a strong Harris supporter.
This is bad campaigning tactics; people liked to be asked for their vote; you are a supervoter and will vote, but campaigns need to ask you
Biggest boost of getting Dem votes in early is GOTV efforts can focus more on the stragglers.