Thank you for the additional sources! (For Early Vote data I’ve mostly followed Michael McDonald’s Election Project.)
Is the final Black vote going to account for 19.5% total? Of course not! But in light of the fact that the Early Vote leans strongly Democratic, and that Philadelphia has already returned one-third of its VBM ballots (ref.…
Thank you for the additional sources! (For Early Vote data I’ve mostly followed Michael McDonald’s Election Project.)
Is the final Black vote going to account for 19.5% total? Of course not! But in light of the fact that the Early Vote leans strongly Democratic, and that Philadelphia has already returned one-third of its VBM ballots (ref. Joshua Smithley, Michael McDonald), that initial percentage does not seem "absurd".
Thank you for the additional sources! (For Early Vote data I’ve mostly followed Michael McDonald’s Election Project.)
Is the final Black vote going to account for 19.5% total? Of course not! But in light of the fact that the Early Vote leans strongly Democratic, and that Philadelphia has already returned one-third of its VBM ballots (ref. Joshua Smithley, Michael McDonald), that initial percentage does not seem "absurd".
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/