PA is, at best, 12.5% Black so that 19.5% claim is absurd. Bouzy seems like a nice guy but some of his election analysis is ridiculous. If you want quality PA election coverage, follow Charlie Wolfson (@chwolfson), Ben Forstate (@4st8) and Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
PA is, at best, 12.5% Black so that 19.5% claim is absurd. Bouzy seems like a nice guy but some of his election analysis is ridiculous. If you want quality PA election coverage, follow Charlie Wolfson (@chwolfson), Ben Forstate (@4st8) and Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
Thank you for the additional sources! (For Early Vote data I’ve mostly followed Michael McDonald’s Election Project.)
Is the final Black vote going to account for 19.5% total? Of course not! But in light of the fact that the Early Vote leans strongly Democratic, and that Philadelphia has already returned one-third of its VBM ballots (ref. Joshua Smithley, Michael McDonald), that initial percentage does not seem "absurd".
This is simply because the city centers mailing back the ballots early. Right now over 3/4 of returned ballots are from Philly, Allegheny and Montgomery counties.
PA is, at best, 12.5% Black so that 19.5% claim is absurd. Bouzy seems like a nice guy but some of his election analysis is ridiculous. If you want quality PA election coverage, follow Charlie Wolfson (@chwolfson), Ben Forstate (@4st8) and Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter.
Thank you for the additional sources! (For Early Vote data I’ve mostly followed Michael McDonald’s Election Project.)
Is the final Black vote going to account for 19.5% total? Of course not! But in light of the fact that the Early Vote leans strongly Democratic, and that Philadelphia has already returned one-third of its VBM ballots (ref. Joshua Smithley, Michael McDonald), that initial percentage does not seem "absurd".
https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-pennsylvania/
This is simply because the city centers mailing back the ballots early. Right now over 3/4 of returned ballots are from Philly, Allegheny and Montgomery counties.
No one would expect the 19.5% number to last.