Most Dems were underestimated in the 2012 polls. That was a very interesting year and there hasn't been another like it since regarding Democratic overperformance, although to be fair, 2022 was the closest we've come.
I have a very hard time imagining Brown winning. Remember that he underperformed polls in 2018 against a nearly invisible opponent. Since then, the Mahoning Valley has slipped so far out of reach that even the region's sitting Congressman managed to lose it in a race against freaking J.D. Vance. I struggle to see the Mahoning Valley snapping back even to 2018 numbers and have no idea how the math works for a Democrat to win Ohio without it. Delaware County wouldn't save Brown with a 50-50 Mahoning Valley. Add a win in Butler County into the mix just for giggles and I can't even see how that would do it.
In addition to what Nikhil said, the GOP contested the Ohio Senate race closely in 2012 and conceded it in 2018. I suspect if Republicans knew an invisible man like Renacci could get within 6 points of Brown without even trying in 2018, they'd have put up a fight and made a contest out of it that year.
Your point is made but with OH moving to the right since Trump, Republican base still voted in normal numbers as compared to 2012.
Also, Tim Ryan was the whole time behind JD Vance in the OH-SEN race polls back in 2022. By contrast, Sherrod Brown has been ahead in the polls the whole time.
Brown has a pretty clear path to winning. Ohio is no redder now than it was in 2018 (and might possibly even be bluer now thanks to the abortion issue). And being well known to be an asshole (as Moreno is) isn't any better electorally than being nearly invisible like Renacci in 2018. It will be close as always, but I think Brown wins re-election.
And if you're not sure how the political geography works out, look at the abortion referendum last year (which passed 57-43) and have the Dem do 6% worse in each county. That would be a 51-49 Dem victory.
Dead man walking is an overstatement. I wouldn't say he's the favorite but the race is still closer to a tossup than either the media or polls seem to be making the race out to be. What's especially suspect is the almost all of the recent polls are Republican/conservative aligned or leaning pollsters so they heavily skew the narrative of that senate race in 1 particular direction. There's also the fact that Tester seems to have been accumulating more Republican endorsements lately and Sheehy has been perceived very poorly, even amongst conservative voters. I'd prolly say the race is a tossup that leans in Sheehy's favor, but nothing more or less beyond that.
I have Brown favored. But Tester seems to be dead man walking. That's 51R seats with a Sheehy win, unfortunately
Polls have underestimated Tester before, though
Most Dems were underestimated in the 2012 polls. That was a very interesting year and there hasn't been another like it since regarding Democratic overperformance, although to be fair, 2022 was the closest we've come.
A recent poll showed Tester up by five % points whereas others show Sheehy up several percentage points.
If Tester was up by just 1% points or even with Sheehy and he was leading Tester in multiple polls, then I'd be really concerned.
I have a very hard time imagining Brown winning. Remember that he underperformed polls in 2018 against a nearly invisible opponent. Since then, the Mahoning Valley has slipped so far out of reach that even the region's sitting Congressman managed to lose it in a race against freaking J.D. Vance. I struggle to see the Mahoning Valley snapping back even to 2018 numbers and have no idea how the math works for a Democrat to win Ohio without it. Delaware County wouldn't save Brown with a 50-50 Mahoning Valley. Add a win in Butler County into the mix just for giggles and I can't even see how that would do it.
Are you predicting a 52-48 Republican control of the Senate, then?
That would be my guess right now, with the caveat that it's too soon to get overconfident about the Blue Wall Senate races.
hello, is this Mark27 from DKE?
Yes indeed.
based on your negative comment about Sen. Brown I assumed as much
I suspected people would know it was me!
Tester and Brown are battle tested incumbents; and it's our best chance to retain the majority(it's not inconceivable that they win)
And yet Brown won re-election by a slightly higher margin in 2018 than in 2012. Explain that.
2018 was a D+8 year, 2012 was D+4.5
That once again solidifies my point of view the whole time:
Brown remains to have incumbency status and recognition in OH in ways other Democrats don’t have.
In addition to what Nikhil said, the GOP contested the Ohio Senate race closely in 2012 and conceded it in 2018. I suspect if Republicans knew an invisible man like Renacci could get within 6 points of Brown without even trying in 2018, they'd have put up a fight and made a contest out of it that year.
And still lost; honestly, Renacci or generic was the same; a loser to a superior political talent
Your point is made but with OH moving to the right since Trump, Republican base still voted in normal numbers as compared to 2012.
Also, Tim Ryan was the whole time behind JD Vance in the OH-SEN race polls back in 2022. By contrast, Sherrod Brown has been ahead in the polls the whole time.
Brown has a pretty clear path to winning. Ohio is no redder now than it was in 2018 (and might possibly even be bluer now thanks to the abortion issue). And being well known to be an asshole (as Moreno is) isn't any better electorally than being nearly invisible like Renacci in 2018. It will be close as always, but I think Brown wins re-election.
And if you're not sure how the political geography works out, look at the abortion referendum last year (which passed 57-43) and have the Dem do 6% worse in each county. That would be a 51-49 Dem victory.
Don't count out Tester; it ain't over til it's over
Dead man walking is an overstatement. I wouldn't say he's the favorite but the race is still closer to a tossup than either the media or polls seem to be making the race out to be. What's especially suspect is the almost all of the recent polls are Republican/conservative aligned or leaning pollsters so they heavily skew the narrative of that senate race in 1 particular direction. There's also the fact that Tester seems to have been accumulating more Republican endorsements lately and Sheehy has been perceived very poorly, even amongst conservative voters. I'd prolly say the race is a tossup that leans in Sheehy's favor, but nothing more or less beyond that.
Dead Man Walking is not accurate; difficult race for Tester, no doubt