In addition to what Nikhil said, the GOP contested the Ohio Senate race closely in 2012 and conceded it in 2018. I suspect if Republicans knew an invisible man like Renacci could get within 6 points of Brown without even trying in 2018, they'd have put up a fight and made a contest out of it that year.
Your point is made but with OH moving to the right since Trump, Republican base still voted in normal numbers as compared to 2012.
Also, Tim Ryan was the whole time behind JD Vance in the OH-SEN race polls back in 2022. By contrast, Sherrod Brown has been ahead in the polls the whole time.
And yet Brown won re-election by a slightly higher margin in 2018 than in 2012. Explain that.
2018 was a D+8 year, 2012 was D+4.5
That once again solidifies my point of view the whole time:
Brown remains to have incumbency status and recognition in OH in ways other Democrats don’t have.
In addition to what Nikhil said, the GOP contested the Ohio Senate race closely in 2012 and conceded it in 2018. I suspect if Republicans knew an invisible man like Renacci could get within 6 points of Brown without even trying in 2018, they'd have put up a fight and made a contest out of it that year.
And still lost; honestly, Renacci or generic was the same; a loser to a superior political talent
Your point is made but with OH moving to the right since Trump, Republican base still voted in normal numbers as compared to 2012.
Also, Tim Ryan was the whole time behind JD Vance in the OH-SEN race polls back in 2022. By contrast, Sherrod Brown has been ahead in the polls the whole time.