I was skeptical we could maintain a pace of 30k per day in building the spread but here we are. At this pace (unlikely but I’ve already been wrong) we’d achieve the firewall by this time next week
I hate to be Johnny Raincloud, but should PA go for Orange Slob, there's going to be a LOT of talk about how "Kamala should have picked Shapiro." Don't expect that to go away anytime soon.
I mean maybe at the time the expectation was that presidential candidates would win their states regardless of the states partisanship, but clearly that is long dead.
But the poster is correct - should Harris lose PA by less than 1% the decision to pick Walz over Shapiro will loom enormous.
But everyone expected it to be close. Whatever you think of how we should be blowing Trump out - no one in three tries has figured out how to break his spell over his followers. Not in the GOP primary and not in the general.
If she loses there will be alot of - did Harris bowing to left wing pressure to not pick Shapiro (basically because he's Jewish and thus presumed to be more Israel friendly than Walz or Harris or any other mainstream Dem who has more or less the same opinion on Israel/Gaza) cost her the election.
VPs dont bring alot - but the half a percent or so that a popular governor would bring in his home state might be definitive in PA whereas its useless in Minnesota.
The only way to "break his spell" is for Trump to betray his followers *in ways they actually care about*.
They don't care about taxes, or corruption, or cuts to essential services. They care about punishing people for daring to be women, minorities, or gay.
Trump wholeheartedly believes that too, though, so he won't - he can't - betray them here. It's just not going to happen, because he is one of them.
I would argue that they DO care about those things. They just want THEIR issues to be addressed and not "those people"'s. The New Deal was popular precisely because it almost exclusively benefitted White southerners and (White) "ethnic" voters in the Northeast and Midwest. The only way Ye Olde New Deal Coalition would and will ever be recreated is if the national demographics just magically reverted back to what they were in the 1930s/1940s.
"Last hired and first fired" would not have become a saying for African Americans during the Depression years if my statement weren't true. Not to mention despite having a PwD in the White House, if anything we actually went BACKWARD on disability rights during his Presidency. Subminimum wages were introduced.
If polling is to be believed the issues with Michigan Arab voters is baked in regardless of the VP. That said, the voucher thing could and would have been a major distraction, and he himself seemed to agree with Harris that he wasn’t the best at being a Number Two
There’s also the sexual harassment scandal. Now I will freely admit it has been quickly forgotten since he has no longer been a candidate. So it’s possible there was a lot more smoke than fire. But if he had been picked that smoke would have been even thicker and had the potential to have a significant cost.
I know this sounds quite morbid, but the simplest way to break Trump's spell is for him to effectively no longer run for office and go away (whether via death or just disappearing from the media which he won't). No Republicans have been able to match let alone replicate Trump's levels of support no matter how MAGA they go, not DeSantis, not Noem, not nobody. Once he's gone, his impact likely evaporates too. Except the stain of his legacy will continue to poison conservative politics and Republicans for years.
I hope you are right but even if Trump loses, imo he will still have a certain percentage of Republican\MAGA politicians that still embrace him(obviously for their own selfish reasons)
Sure but in this hypothetical she's lost PA but would have won it with Shapiro. Assuming Michigan is close enough that picking Shapiro moves it to hte loss column that still means she has more paths to victory (for example - winning WI and AZ and NV, or WI and one of NC and GA - both of which would be losses if she won MI and lost PA).
The pace is going to start slowing down Wednesday or Thursday next week. Not a astronomically but probably by 50% to D+10-12k/day. The ballots returned so far are from voters who are so motivated that they signed up to automatically receive a ballot or application for a ballot. However, the slowdown will be temporary & will jump up again once in-person ballot drop off locations start opening. The 390k firewall probably won't be achieved next week but most likely the week after and my personal firewall of 450k by a week before Election Day with the ultimate firewall being between 485-510k.
That is true but some offices are a bigger hassle than others. Allegheny County, for example, would require a trip to Forbes Ave in Downtown Pittsburgh. The County is running drop-off & satellite voting locations starting Tuesday in & near the city then about ten live drop off locations open all over the county everyday from Oct 29-Nov 4.
Joshua Smithley has the updated Pennsylvania Early Vote:
Pennsylvania - 2024 General Election - Day 5
📥 416,652 votes cast
🔵 DEM: 285,072 - 29% returned
🔴 GOP: 95,666 - 21% returned
🟡 IND: 35,914 - 18.9% returned
VBM Splits: 🔵 68.4% / 🔴 23% / 🟡 8.6%
🔷 DEM firewall: +189,406
📈 Return Edge: D+7.9
https://nitter.poast.org/blockedfreq/status/1844744545059139924#m
I was skeptical we could maintain a pace of 30k per day in building the spread but here we are. At this pace (unlikely but I’ve already been wrong) we’d achieve the firewall by this time next week
I hate to be Johnny Raincloud, but should PA go for Orange Slob, there's going to be a LOT of talk about how "Kamala should have picked Shapiro." Don't expect that to go away anytime soon.
And Al Gore should have won Tennessee.
You're certainly right about the post mortem in that case, but it'll just be pundits talking to talk. Too many variables.
I mean maybe at the time the expectation was that presidential candidates would win their states regardless of the states partisanship, but clearly that is long dead.
But the poster is correct - should Harris lose PA by less than 1% the decision to pick Walz over Shapiro will loom enormous.
It should never be this close and picking one person over another should not be the main issue. There will be worse reasons than a vp pick.
But everyone expected it to be close. Whatever you think of how we should be blowing Trump out - no one in three tries has figured out how to break his spell over his followers. Not in the GOP primary and not in the general.
If she loses there will be alot of - did Harris bowing to left wing pressure to not pick Shapiro (basically because he's Jewish and thus presumed to be more Israel friendly than Walz or Harris or any other mainstream Dem who has more or less the same opinion on Israel/Gaza) cost her the election.
VPs dont bring alot - but the half a percent or so that a popular governor would bring in his home state might be definitive in PA whereas its useless in Minnesota.
The only way to "break his spell" is for Trump to betray his followers *in ways they actually care about*.
They don't care about taxes, or corruption, or cuts to essential services. They care about punishing people for daring to be women, minorities, or gay.
Trump wholeheartedly believes that too, though, so he won't - he can't - betray them here. It's just not going to happen, because he is one of them.
I would argue that they DO care about those things. They just want THEIR issues to be addressed and not "those people"'s. The New Deal was popular precisely because it almost exclusively benefitted White southerners and (White) "ethnic" voters in the Northeast and Midwest. The only way Ye Olde New Deal Coalition would and will ever be recreated is if the national demographics just magically reverted back to what they were in the 1930s/1940s.
Well stated, but isn't it an exaggeration to say that the New Deal "almost exclusively benefitted" whites?
Millions of non whites benefited imo
"Last hired and first fired" would not have become a saying for African Americans during the Depression years if my statement weren't true. Not to mention despite having a PwD in the White House, if anything we actually went BACKWARD on disability rights during his Presidency. Subminimum wages were introduced.
Nobody would claim that Black people were first hired and last fired, but they did benefit, or at least some of them did.
I don't agree
Pretty sure I just peeped which former Kossack this is, lol.
It’s not presumed; it’s a fact. Not to mention that he supported school vouchers. He would have cost her thousands of votes in Michigan alone.
If polling is to be believed the issues with Michigan Arab voters is baked in regardless of the VP. That said, the voucher thing could and would have been a major distraction, and he himself seemed to agree with Harris that he wasn’t the best at being a Number Two
There’s also the sexual harassment scandal. Now I will freely admit it has been quickly forgotten since he has no longer been a candidate. So it’s possible there was a lot more smoke than fire. But if he had been picked that smoke would have been even thicker and had the potential to have a significant cost.
Exactly. You see how they've blown very minor things in Walz's bio into BIG DEALS...imagine what they'd do with actual chicanery
Rightly or wrongly there's a word for candidates who bank on the rationality of voters: losers.
If people were thinking rationally this race wouldnt be close.
I know this sounds quite morbid, but the simplest way to break Trump's spell is for him to effectively no longer run for office and go away (whether via death or just disappearing from the media which he won't). No Republicans have been able to match let alone replicate Trump's levels of support no matter how MAGA they go, not DeSantis, not Noem, not nobody. Once he's gone, his impact likely evaporates too. Except the stain of his legacy will continue to poison conservative politics and Republicans for years.
I hope you are right but even if Trump loses, imo he will still have a certain percentage of Republican\MAGA politicians that still embrace him(obviously for their own selfish reasons)
We have to realize that there are 7 close states and must work to win them all
And then you’d have to explain why she lost Michigan.
Michigan is smaller than Pennsylvania and you would expect his impact there to be smaller than his impact in PA.
If she doesn’t win both of them, she’s unlikely to win.
Sure but in this hypothetical she's lost PA but would have won it with Shapiro. Assuming Michigan is close enough that picking Shapiro moves it to hte loss column that still means she has more paths to victory (for example - winning WI and AZ and NV, or WI and one of NC and GA - both of which would be losses if she won MI and lost PA).
The pace is going to start slowing down Wednesday or Thursday next week. Not a astronomically but probably by 50% to D+10-12k/day. The ballots returned so far are from voters who are so motivated that they signed up to automatically receive a ballot or application for a ballot. However, the slowdown will be temporary & will jump up again once in-person ballot drop off locations start opening. The 390k firewall probably won't be achieved next week but most likely the week after and my personal firewall of 450k by a week before Election Day with the ultimate firewall being between 485-510k.
Thank you for this context! I agree it seems likely that the slowdown in growth will come, it more or less has to
You can already drop off mail ballots at county election offices. I dropped mine off last week.
That is true but some offices are a bigger hassle than others. Allegheny County, for example, would require a trip to Forbes Ave in Downtown Pittsburgh. The County is running drop-off & satellite voting locations starting Tuesday in & near the city then about ten live drop off locations open all over the county everyday from Oct 29-Nov 4.
That's like IL - Chicago vs 'burbs and other places. I could vote now, but it'd be a huge hassle. In a couple weeks it'll be simple.
Return edge is the 2-party differential of the ratio of returned to requested, right?