Morning Digest: The next big special election is happening in Trump's backyard

Democrats could flip a Florida district that includes none other than Mar-a-Lago

Florida Democrat Emily Gregory (second from left). (Credit: Emily Gregory campaign site)

Leading Off

Special Elections

A long-awaited special election will finally take place next month in a Florida House district that’s home to none other than Donald Trump’s seaside lair of Mar-a-Lago.

The contest pits Democrat Emily Gregory against Republican Jon Maples for the vacant 87th District, which runs along the coast of much of northern Palm Beach County. Near the center of the region’s distinctive barrier island sits Trump’s private resort, which earned its name because it stretches from the ocean on the east to the lagoon on the west.

The unusual race for this slice of the South Florida beachfront was both caused by and delayed by Gov. Ron DeSantis, who appointed state Rep. Mike Caruso as Palm Beach County clerk to fill a vacancy last August.

DeSantis rewarded Caruso after a messy internecine fight in the legislature a year ago over legislation designed to turbocharge Trump’s deportation agenda that the governor supported. Lawmakers, unhappy at being bullied by DeSantis once again, responded by passing their own bill and unsubtly called it the TRUMP Act.

Caruso was the lone House Republican to vote against that bill, which prompted House Speaker Daniel Perez to remove him as chair of a legislative subcommittee and even kick him out of the corner office he occupied.

DeSantis, naturally, responded enthusiastically to Caruso’s display of loyalty, introducing him as “the legend” at a public event in the middle of the imbroglio, because he had “stood strong for what the voters asked even against the wishes of a lot of pressure coming down from politicians in Tallahassee.”

Some six months later—doubtless to the delight of Perez—DeSantis tapped Caruso to replace the previous clerk, Democrat Joe Abruzzo, who had been named as Palm Beach County’s new administrator.

And then, DeSantis waited.

As he has done so often with past vacancies, the governor refused to call a special election to fill Caruso’s seat. Sometimes, DeSantis has dragged his feet when doing so would deprive Democrats of representation in safely blue districts. On other occasions, he’s held off when Republicans might lose a seat of their own. Frequently, he’s only acted when forced by litigation.

That’s exactly what happened here. Gregory, a first-time candidate who runs a fitness business serving pregnant and postpartum women, had launched a bid to take on Caruso in July, and like Democrats everywhere, she took particular aim at the issue of affordability.

By the following month, though, her opponent was gone, yet no special election was forthcoming.

Finally, tired of waiting—and tired of the lack of representation—Gregory filed a lawsuit in early October seeking to compel DeSantis to schedule an election. She noted in her complaint that more than 45 days had elapsed since Caruso’s appointment with no action, and that the next legislative session was looming in January.

(Even Republicans seem frustrated with DeSantis’ gamesmanship: A bill mandating firm deadlines for calling special elections unanimously passed a committee in the state Senate earlier this month.)

Seventeen days after Gregory went to court, DeSantis at last issued an order setting the election for March 24—a week-and-a-half after the legislature is set to conclude its regular business for the year. The winner would, however, be able to participate in a special session DeSantis called for April 20 to address congressional redistricting.

Caruso’s district has long been held by Republicans, but it hasn’t always been especially favorable to them at other levels of the ballot.

In 2024, when the bottom dropped out for Florida Democrats, Trump rang up a sizable 55-44 win, according to calculations from The Downballot. However, he barely carried the district, under its current lines, during his two prior campaigns.

Data from the Voting and Election Science Team uploaded to Dave’s Redistricting App shows Trump won it just 49.8 to 49.3 in 2020. Four years earlier, he prevailed by a mere 33 votes—a margin of 0.04 points.

That backdrop, combined with Trump’s deep unpopularity and strong Democratic performances in special elections nationwide, is fueling Gregory’s hopes of defeating Maples, a financial planner and former member of the Town Council in Lake Clarke Shores.

Trump, unsurprisingly, has taken an interest in the race—he’s a registered voter in the district, after all—and endorsed Maples ahead of last month’s primary, which he won in a walk. (Gregory did the same.)

Those sorts of endorsements, though, haven’t always been quite as useful in a general election, as Texas Republican Leigh Wambsganss found out to her dismay last month. Gregory would be delighted should the same thing happen right in Trump’s own backyard.

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The Great Hochul Turnaround

Governors

NM-Gov

Two separate lawsuits were filed in New Mexico state court last week arguing that wealthy businessman Duke Rodriguez, who is seeking the Republican nomination for the state’s open governorship, has not met the residency requirement to hold that office.

One suit was brought by Jim Ellison, a former member of the state’s Public Regulation Commission who is running against Rodriguez in the June 2 primary. The other comes from two voters who political writer Joe Monahan says are supporters of a third GOP contender, state Sen. Steve Lanier.

Both complaints emphasize that Rodriguez only registered to vote in New Mexico last year after spending the prior two decades on the voter rolls in neighboring Arizona. That’s a potentially disqualifying problem because the state’s constitution requires that its governor “shall have resided continuously in New Mexico for five years next preceding his election.”

Rodriguez has argued to the Santa Fe New Mexican that he’s eligible to run, though, because he’s owned a home in Albuquerque since 1979 and has “absolutely, 100%” lived in the Land of Enchantment for decades.

Rodriguez, who has pledged to self-fund up to $2 million, is arguably the frontrunner in the five-way GOP nomination contest. The field also includes Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull and businessman Doug Turner, who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nod in 2010.

But not all of the Republicans running to replace termed-out Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham may make it to the primary.

On March 7, Democrats and Republicans will both hold conventions, at which candidates for statewide office and the U.S. House need to win at least 20% of the vote to ensure they have a spot on the primary ballot. Anyone who falls short can still continue their campaigns, but only if they collect additional signatures by March 17.

There’s little question, though, that the two Democrats running for governor, Bernalillo County District Attorney Sam Bregman and former U.S. Secretary of the Interior Deb Haaland, will keep competing until June 2.

House

GA-11, GA Public Service Commission

Public Service Commissioner Tricia Pridemore announced Tuesday that she would not seek reelection this year as she considers a bid for Georgia’s open 11th Congressional District.

Pridemore said in her statement that she has not made a “final decision” whether to launch a campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk, who first won this safely red seat after defeating her in their 2014 primary. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution’s Greg Bluestein, though, believes she’s “likely” to run.

Pridemore’s decision, however, means that the GOP will need to quickly find a new candidate to defend her pivotal seat on the Public Service Commission, the powerful utility regulatory body that Democrats are trying to take control of this fall. The state’s candidate filing deadline is March 6.

Morning Digest: Georgia Democrats can flip a powerful board this fall after shock landslides last year

MD-05

State Sen. Arthur Ellis filed paperwork with the FEC on Sunday for a possible campaign to succeed Rep. Steny Hoyer, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking reelection to Maryland’s 5th District after more than four decades in Congress.

Ellis told Bryan Sears of Maryland Matters that he’s still deciding what to do ahead of the Feb. 24 candidate qualifying deadline. But Del. C.T. Wilson, who also considered running for Congress, informed Sears he’ll seek Ellis’ legislative seat instead since it appears “he’s going to be running for Congress.”

Ellis, who is originally from Jamaica, was first elected to the state Senate in 2018 after defeating a longtime incumbent in the primary.

Ellis attracted attention early this month when he announced that he would not participate in quorum calls to protest Senate President Bill Ferguson’s refusal to allow the chamber to vote on a new congressional map that the House of Delegates had just approved. Gov. Wes Moore responded by thanking Ellis for “standing up,” but Ferguson has not relented.

Ellis would join a busy June 23 primary field for the 5th District, a safely blue seat that stretches from the Washington suburbs to the southwestern tip of the state. The roster includes Del. Adrian Boafo, who has Hoyer’s backing; former Capitol Police officer Harry Dunn, who unsuccessfully sought the neighboring 3rd District last cycle; and Prince George’s County Councilmember Wala Blegay.

MS-02

Attorney Evan Turnage has launched what his campaign tells Mississippi Today is a “six-figure” ad campaign against longtime Rep. Bennie Thompson ahead of their March 10 Democratic primary contest.

Turnage, who at 33 is more than four decades younger than the 78-year-old incumbent, begins his first spot by arguing that Thompson has failed to do enough for his constituents in Mississippi’s 2nd Congressional District since he was first elected in 1993.

“We live in the poorest district in the poorest state in the country,” Turnage tells the audience. “That was true when I was 1, when our congressman was first elected. It’s true today.”

Turnage continues, “If our congressman’s 33 years in office had helped build up this district, built wealth and health in this district, there’d be no need for change.”

When Thompson first joined Congress, Mississippi did indeed rank last in the nation on many metrics, including household income and poverty rates—a picture that remains little changed today. Likewise, the predominantly Black 2nd District, a safely Democratic seat that includes the state capital of Jackson and communities in the Mississippi Delta, has long been the poorest in the state, as well as one of the poorest nationwide.

Turnage, who served as chief counsel for then-Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer after a stint in Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s office, announced in mid-December that he’d challenge Thompson. His relatively late start, though, didn’t leave him with much time to raise money against Thompson, who has been the top Democrat on the Homeland Security Committee since 2005.

Morning Digest: Another senior House Democrat draws a challenge from a much younger opponent

The congressman ended last year with about $1.7 million in the bank, while Turnage had just over $50,000 on hand after two weeks in the race. Updated fundraising numbers are due with the FEC by Feb. 26.

A third Democrat named Pertis Williams is also competing in next month’s primary. Williams has attracted little attention, but his presence on the ballot could prevent either Thompson or Turnage from winning the majority of the vote necessary to avoid a runoff on April 7.

NJ-02

Cape May Mayor Zack Mullock announced Tuesday that he would seek the Democratic nomination to oppose Rep. Jeff Van Drew, a former Democrat who defected to the GOP in 2019 during his first year in Congress.

Mullock, who leads a resort community that’s home to fewer than 3,000 residents but attracts large numbers of tourists, joins four other Democrats in the June 2 primary. His best-funded opponent is Bayly Winder, a former official at the United States Agency for International Development who ended 2025 with just over $230,000 banked.

Van Drew had $1.2 million on hand to defend a conservative seat based in the southern part of the Jersey Shore.

The incumbent most recently prevailed 58-41 in 2024 as Donald Trump, according to calculations by The Downballot, was carrying his constituency 56-43. The New Jersey Globe says that Republican Jack Ciattarelli outpaced Democrat Mikie Sherrill here 53-46 in last year’s gubernatorial race even as he was badly losing statewide.

NV-02

Former state Assembly Majority Leader Teresa Benitez-Thompson announced Tuesday that she would seek the Democratic nomination to replace Republican Rep. Mark Amodei, who recently said he would not run for reelection in Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District.

Benitez-Thompson, who now serves as chief of staff to Attorney General Aaron Ford, hopes to become the first Democrat to ever represent this northern Nevada constituency during its more than four decades of existence.

The new candidate, though, argues that a backlash against Donald Trump gives her an opening in a district he carried 56-42 in 2024.

Benitez-Thompson told the Nevada Independent that voters are “nervous about federal imposition into their own backyard and land in a way that … we’ve never seen before, in a way that we see playing out in other different parts of the country.” She added, “As a mom of four who goes to the grocery store, I wince when I see the cost of a carton of eggs.”

Benitez-Thompson, a former Miss Nevada who became the first Latina to serve as majority leader in the Assembly following the 2016 elections, is the first prominent Democrat to announce a campaign since Amodei decided to call it a career. However, she doesn’t have the June 9 primary to herself.

Greg Kidd, a wealthy businessman who challenged Amodei as an independent in 2024 and lost 55-36, said last month that he would run as a Democrat this time. Matthew Fonken, who is the state party’s former executive director, also launched a campaign in January.

On the Republican side, just about every prominent name is waiting to see whether Army veteran Sam Brown, who was the GOP’s nominee for U.S. Senate last cycle, will run. Brown, whom the Indy says would be Trump’s choice if he gets in, has enjoyed keeping everyone guessing about his plans as the March 13 candidate filing deadline draws closer.

Mayors & County Leaders

Harris County, TX Judge

Former Houston Mayor Annise Parker holds a 46-25 lead over former Houston City Councilwoman Letitia Plummer heading into the March 3 Democratic primary for Harris County judge, according to a newly released poll from the University of Houston.

This survey, which appears to be the first for this contest, also shows real estate agent Matt Salazar taking 5%, with the remaining 24% undecided. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff on May 26.

This post is held by Democratic incumbent Lina Hidalgo, who is not seeking a third term as leader of America’s third-largest county. (In Texas, the position of county judge is not judicial but rather is the equivalent of county executives elsewhere.) Hidalgo implored Democrats in December not to nominate Parker, though she has yet to endorse either alternative.

Republicans are hoping to retake the powerful office that Hidalgo flipped in 2018 after more than three decades of GOP control. UH, however, finds that no candidate has emerged as the dominant favorite in the GOP primary the way Parker has for Democrats.

The school’s poll shows former County Treasurer Orlando Sanchez taking first place with 21%, which is well short of the majority needed to win the GOP nod outright.

Marty Lancton, who leads the Houston firefighters union, holds a small 10-7 edge over Aliza Dutt, who is mayor of the 3,000-person community of Piney Point Village. A 54% majority of respondents are undecided, while the balance is split between three other candidates.

But while Lancton only barely breaks into the double digits in this poll, he has a very powerful friend on his side. Gov. Greg Abbott, who has pledged to use his massive war chest to turn Harris County “dark red,” endorsed Lancton in December.

The county was once a conservative bastion that backed GOP presidential nominees in every election from Richard Nixon’s first victory in 1968 through George W. Bush’s reelection in 2004.

However, Barack Obama’s narrow 2008 win marked the beginning of the Democrats’ current winning streak that continued in 2024 when Kamala Harris carried the county 52-46. That showing, however, represented a sizable shift to the right from Joe Biden’s 56-43 performance four years earlier.

Poll Pile

• TX-Sen: Hart Research (D) for Forward Texas (pro-Jasmine Crockett): Jasmine Crockett (D): 49, Ken Paxton (R): 45. The memo did not include any other potential general election matchups.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Tavern Research (D) for Xavier Becerra: Chad Bianco (R): 20, Steve Hilton (R): 12, Eric Swalwell (D): 10, Tom Steyer (D): 9, Katie Porter (D): 9, Xavier Becerra (D): 6, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 3, Matt Mahan (D): 2, undecided: 25.