Well, Rep. James Walkinshaw actually lives here but his district is numbered the 11th. The current 11th is where Bree Fram also lives. Republican Rep. John McGuire also lives in this new 7th.
WI (PA is the other) where Dems need to be trying to get an independent redistricting commission if they win a trifecta in 2026. These states aren’t like VA where it’s almost impossible for Republicans to get a trifecta for the 2031 and later redistrictings. Just because Dems might get a trifecta in these states in 2026 doesn’t mean they will be able to hold them for very long. Better safe than sorry (see Dems many states after 2006 and 2008 and then 2010 where Republicans ended up getting trifectas and gerrymandered near permanent majorities for themselves).
Having any independent commission is better than Republicans drawing the maps. Dems walking away from something that’s not perfect for them would be very stupid in this case.
Dems idiotically walked away from Republican offers for independent redistricting in NC and OH in 2009 and are still paying for it almost 20 years later.
I mean at that point you're arguing for proportional representation. I don't think it's possible to effectuate such language in a small-r republican system.
The language of the Michigan redistricting law says "Districts shall not provide disproportionate advantage to political parties or candidates.", which is different than what you're arguing.
That makes sense, I was just saying the specific language you were advocating, "specify that the party that wins a majority of the vote should win a majority of seats", is simply not possible without going for full PR.
Trying to go for proportional representation in these commissions is what makes them fail on referendum. We just need to accept that in some states geography helps us (CA, NV) and in others it hurts us (WI) and then let the chips fall.
This is not disarming, it’s purchasing insurance. It’s highly unlikely we’ll have a trifecta in WI (or PA) coming out of 2030. A Republican trifecta in both states is far more likely than a Dem one in 2031.
Yep, preemptive measures in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where we could very well see Republican trifectas in 2030 is smart. Any blue leaning state is different.
None of us have any idea how long we’ll be able to win those races. With an open seat and a Dem in the White House in an off year election, we have a very good chance at losing a race.
Your specificity in the caption: "Florida Democrat Emily Gregory (second from left)" – when she’s the only woman, in fact only female, in the photo – made me chuckle.
Once again Undecided is leading the field in the latest CA-Gov poll. My theory is that voters will start focusing on the election when the ballots hit their mailboxes in early May.
Primary Day in CA is a numerical palindrome: 6/2/26... (some useless information for you all).
"Haley Stevens also seemed generally impressed with the (ICE) staff during the visit and their treatment of detainees.
“Of note, there is female leadership here, and there are women who walked with us today and explained, on the intake process"
“What we were informed of is that there is still an ongoing review of his death, and yet a man is dead, and he died here in this ICE center, this ICE processing center, this detention center.” "
Michigan congresswomen get no answers on Baldwin ICE facility death during visit and tour
"Of note, there is female leadership here, and there are women who walked with us today and explained, on the intake process" ok gaslight gatekeep girlboss
Lol, the threat of facing Talarico in the general already cost them 60 million. Imagine the tens of millions he will divert away from the core states of Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, North Carolina if he wins the primary.
There's a non-zero chance the FCC may have unintentionally triggered a butterfly effect that could ultimately lead to the abolition of the Electoral College.
Talarico wins the primary, flips Texas, and wins the Senate seat. Fueled by increased investment, stronger Democratic organizing, and Texas’s emergence as a swing state, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028 seriously contests the state and carries it. With Texas no longer reliably Republican, the Electoral College map becomes apocalyptic for the GOP, prompting a bipartisan push to abolish the Electoral College. A 358–175 Electoral College margin — that’s a shellacking.
I am curious about two primaries here in North Carolina that doesn't have much or no polling:
Kate Barr v. Tim Moore (NC CD 14 Republican primary)
- Barr has been open about being a progressive faux Republican and said on HCR's podcast last night that should she win the GOP primary and Nov election, she would vote for Hakeem Jeffries as House Speaker.
Christine Walczyk v. James Whalen (NC Court of Appeals Democratic primary)
- Both are really good and qualified candidates, but I think Whalen gets the edge because he successfully defended Justice Allison Riggs' win in court. Walczyk would be an incredible candidate for one of the three state Supreme Court seats up in 2028.
The fact that she's making him work for his gerrymandered seat gives me great satisfaction. And people have to be creative in states that are viciously gerrymandered like NC.
Plus, he's young. Meaning that if he wins the primary and the general in November, he'll be primed to join his client on the state Supreme Court in several years.
Wouldn't necessarily be opposed to him running for Supreme Court in 2028 tbh. Maybe Allegra Collins? Idk why she's leaving the court this year, maybe she has a 2028 NCSC race on her mind?
I would love to see Collins run for the state Supreme Court in 2028. That said, being part of a judicial minority in the Court of Appeals can take its toll.
It would be nice if he won the Court of Appeals seat and should he run for the state Supreme Court in 2028, he can run for that (and have Stein appoint his replacement on CoA).
I am going Walczyk on my ballot, and after trying to get more info on the Wake County Commission candidates (there wasn't much) - Steve Rao and Christine Kushner.
Locally, I tend to stay "normie lane" unless a compelling case is made otherwise (since I think the NC Dem establishment, and especially that of Wake County...is prettay, prettay good).
Yes, though it’s a much heavier lift than the South Texas trio and maybe even that new gerrymandered seat near San Antonio that Casar used to represent
Alexis Goldstein, fired CFPB official, is running here, I assume in the Dem primary against April McClain-Delaney (haven't watched the video yet). This also marks the first time in my memory that a candidate has announced on Democracy Now. (Which is great IMO, I love D Now.)
Another rep or senator or two or five with a CFPB would be awesome
But I’m not sure MD-6 is the best district to run a primary campaign in considering Delaney and previous incumbent and money printer Trone both already in
Jasmine Crockett makes her case on Day 1 of early voting. Telling us she is the “most qualified” candidate and voters should not be distracted by the “dog whistle” of an electability concern.
Ugh, it's tough because that is a real dog whistle people sometimes use against women and candidates of color, but it's also a valid question here. The Crockett people keep bringing up these concerns which are totally valid and based on things that have happened to candidates in the past, so you can't fully dismiss them, by I also don't think they apply here. The sooner this primary is over, the better.
Is it too much for Crockett to be another Obama and inspire voters?
I remember Kamala Harris was tough in her presidential campaign but she came across as more genuine and sincere. She didn’t need to bring out the “oh hey, look at me, I’m black” card like it’s almost the central part of her campaign. And Harris was comfortable in her own skin.
Mind you, I have no problem when anyone brings up race. But really. What else do they have?
Also frequently used against progressives in general.
Nevertheless, Crockett is not going to win. Too much of a bombthrower. (I also like Talarico’s emphasis on progressive Christianity, as a progressive Christian myself.)
Seems like a useful lane in Texas, and I love seeing pushback on the idea that the GOP owns Christianity, despite being vehemently against state power for religiosity.
the nc general assembly has a dearth of lawyers and we all have seen how that's been going since 2010, i think its a good idea for people writing the laws to understand how the law itself works
I didn't say we don't need any lawyers at all. I just think that having candidates and representatives from a variety of different backgrounds is good.
roughly 19% are attorneys, the remainder are an amalgamation of other professions. The number that used to be higher was real estate professionals, which was my gripe when I went to school at Carolina, as the lack of any development plan was based on the fact there were more realtors than attorneys in the general assembly, however given the chart I just pulled it appears my data from 2019 was a bit outdated.
Progressive Mark Pinsley drops out, running for State Senate instead (specifically PA-SD-16 against incumbent Republican Jarrett Coleman).
From a progressive point of view, good, as now Bob Brooks can consolidate progressive support. Pinsley had no chance anyway.
Also, was Coleman vulnerable or no? I feel like I’d heard he was vulnerable. Any PA people here who can help? (If so, Pinsley, a progressive, would certainly be an upgrade from the GOP).
Does that indicate whether Talarico or Crockett has an edge?
If you believe that Talarico is winning Latino primary voters, I'd imagine it favors him.
*crosses fingers for a blue tsunami on 11/3/26*
A+++++
Ugh apparently he's a favorite of the crypto industry
That should be a real weakness in the primary considering how touchy the issue of data centers is in Northern Virginia.
I wonder if anyone else is considering running here, or would make a good candidate. Anyone have any suggestions?
Well, Rep. James Walkinshaw actually lives here but his district is numbered the 11th. The current 11th is where Bree Fram also lives. Republican Rep. John McGuire also lives in this new 7th.
That's amazing. I know it's a Pulido-favorable poll, but wow!
Be nice to have a House Rep who can sing.
Couldn't ask for a better candidate here
Unsurprising. Politico is trying to pretend this one is remotely competitive
conservative outlet, can't imagine they want to poll for a race they know ... knock on wood.. that they'll get their ass kicked in
Looks like Tony Evers is no dummy:
https://x.com/VoteHub/status/2023949070335656188?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E2023949070335656188%7Ctwgr%5E7760283415fe0a7f17dff6ee0dfde246d223e541%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftalkelections.org%2FFORUM%2Findex.php%3Ftopic%3D648108.msg10211060new
WI (PA is the other) where Dems need to be trying to get an independent redistricting commission if they win a trifecta in 2026. These states aren’t like VA where it’s almost impossible for Republicans to get a trifecta for the 2031 and later redistrictings. Just because Dems might get a trifecta in these states in 2026 doesn’t mean they will be able to hold them for very long. Better safe than sorry (see Dems many states after 2006 and 2008 and then 2010 where Republicans ended up getting trifectas and gerrymandered near permanent majorities for themselves).
Having any independent commission is better than Republicans drawing the maps. Dems walking away from something that’s not perfect for them would be very stupid in this case.
Dems idiotically walked away from Republican offers for independent redistricting in NC and OH in 2009 and are still paying for it almost 20 years later.
What was the offer in Ohio in 2009? Republicans held the state senate.
https://www.cleveland.com/open/2009/09/senate_republicans_pass_consti.html
So it was basically abolishing the Voting Rights Act as a poison pill? Was it even constitutional?
I mean at that point you're arguing for proportional representation. I don't think it's possible to effectuate such language in a small-r republican system.
Yeah that could be added here.
The language of the Michigan redistricting law says "Districts shall not provide disproportionate advantage to political parties or candidates.", which is different than what you're arguing.
That makes sense, I was just saying the specific language you were advocating, "specify that the party that wins a majority of the vote should win a majority of seats", is simply not possible without going for full PR.
Trying to go for proportional representation in these commissions is what makes them fail on referendum. We just need to accept that in some states geography helps us (CA, NV) and in others it hurts us (WI) and then let the chips fall.
Wisconsin Rs are not going to do it. Vos will gavel in and then gavel out within seconds.
Then Dems should do it if they get legislative majorities in 2026.
It should be one of the first things they pass. They'll need to pass it twice like in Virginia before putting it to voters.
And then a Voter's Bill of Rights like the proposed initiative in OH that nullifies the WI photo ID amendment.
I would not pair them together.
On the ballot as one, no.
Two separate amendments, yes.
That seems to make it more likely Republicans could a
use the voter ID one as a stalking horse to get both voted down. I would recommend worrying about the redistricting one alone first.
Disarming in the middle of a war is stupid.
This is not disarming, it’s purchasing insurance. It’s highly unlikely we’ll have a trifecta in WI (or PA) coming out of 2030. A Republican trifecta in both states is far more likely than a Dem one in 2031.
Yep, preemptive measures in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where we could very well see Republican trifectas in 2030 is smart. Any blue leaning state is different.
You have a perpetual advantage in PA and WI supreme court races. Thats your insurance.
None of us have any idea how long we’ll be able to win those races. With an open seat and a Dem in the White House in an off year election, we have a very good chance at losing a race.
No, no, no. Gerrymander it yourself.
Good chance we won’t have the opportunity and Republicans will get to do it if they win a trifecta in these states in 2030.
Your specificity in the caption: "Florida Democrat Emily Gregory (second from left)" – when she’s the only woman, in fact only female, in the photo – made me chuckle.
Check out the addition of “(right)” to a photo caption of bagpipe player and "indifferent penguin" in Antarctica:
https://allthingslinguistic.com/post/154482764904/who-would-have-believed-that-the-perfect-wikipedia
lol not Becerra trying to spin being at 6% in his own poll as a good thing. At least Swalwell‘s poll a week or so ago showed him in 2nd place.
Once again Undecided is leading the field in the latest CA-Gov poll. My theory is that voters will start focusing on the election when the ballots hit their mailboxes in early May.
Primary Day in CA is a numerical palindrome: 6/2/26... (some useless information for you all).
"Haley Stevens also seemed generally impressed with the (ICE) staff during the visit and their treatment of detainees.
“Of note, there is female leadership here, and there are women who walked with us today and explained, on the intake process"
“What we were informed of is that there is still an ongoing review of his death, and yet a man is dead, and he died here in this ICE center, this ICE processing center, this detention center.” "
Michigan congresswomen get no answers on Baldwin ICE facility death during visit and tour
https://michiganadvance.com/2026/02/17/michigan-congresswomen-get-no-answers-on-baldwin-ice-facility-death-during-visit-and-tour/
Her successor, Jeremy Moss, will be a big upgrade. He supports abolishing ICE unlike her.
"Of note, there is female leadership here, and there are women who walked with us today and explained, on the intake process" ok gaslight gatekeep girlboss
"See! They have Girlboss Concentration Camp guards. How progressive of them" talk about tone deaf.
Ilse Koch was a woman.
Is she actively trying to lose her primary?
She's waiting for AIPAC to drop 10 million.
*face palm*
Really Congresswoman Stevens. Really.
Mallory McMorrow currently has my vote.
Nice.
"Paxton surviving cash dump in Texas Senate primary
TYLER, Texas — The GOP establishment spent more than $60 million to kneecap Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton’s Senate campaign.
It didn’t work."
https://punchbowl.news/article/campaigns/paxton-survival/
Lol, the threat of facing Talarico in the general already cost them 60 million. Imagine the tens of millions he will divert away from the core states of Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Alaska, North Carolina if he wins the primary.
Talarico just raised 2.5 million in the 24 hour period after his interview with Stephen Colbert
The FCC’s bullshit was an in-kind contribution to the Talarico campaign
There's a non-zero chance the FCC may have unintentionally triggered a butterfly effect that could ultimately lead to the abolition of the Electoral College.
say more
Talarico wins the primary, flips Texas, and wins the Senate seat. Fueled by increased investment, stronger Democratic organizing, and Texas’s emergence as a swing state, the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028 seriously contests the state and carries it. With Texas no longer reliably Republican, the Electoral College map becomes apocalyptic for the GOP, prompting a bipartisan push to abolish the Electoral College. A 358–175 Electoral College margin — that’s a shellacking.
I am curious about two primaries here in North Carolina that doesn't have much or no polling:
Kate Barr v. Tim Moore (NC CD 14 Republican primary)
- Barr has been open about being a progressive faux Republican and said on HCR's podcast last night that should she win the GOP primary and Nov election, she would vote for Hakeem Jeffries as House Speaker.
Christine Walczyk v. James Whalen (NC Court of Appeals Democratic primary)
- Both are really good and qualified candidates, but I think Whalen gets the edge because he successfully defended Justice Allison Riggs' win in court. Walczyk would be an incredible candidate for one of the three state Supreme Court seats up in 2028.
Moore will easily win the first one. Not sure about the second though.
The fact that she's making him work for his gerrymandered seat gives me great satisfaction. And people have to be creative in states that are viciously gerrymandered like NC.
I am voting for Whalen. He seems well-regarded in Democratic circles.
Plus, he's young. Meaning that if he wins the primary and the general in November, he'll be primed to join his client on the state Supreme Court in several years.
Wouldn't necessarily be opposed to him running for Supreme Court in 2028 tbh. Maybe Allegra Collins? Idk why she's leaving the court this year, maybe she has a 2028 NCSC race on her mind?
I would love to see Collins run for the state Supreme Court in 2028. That said, being part of a judicial minority in the Court of Appeals can take its toll.
It would be nice if he won the Court of Appeals seat and should he run for the state Supreme Court in 2028, he can run for that (and have Stein appoint his replacement on CoA).
graduated with him from law school, he is the epitome of empathy and integrity
I am going Walczyk on my ballot, and after trying to get more info on the Wake County Commission candidates (there wasn't much) - Steve Rao and Christine Kushner.
Locally, I tend to stay "normie lane" unless a compelling case is made otherwise (since I think the NC Dem establishment, and especially that of Wake County...is prettay, prettay good).
https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/tony-gonzales-affair-regina-santos-aviles-21357720.php
TX-23: Rep. Tony Gonzales, who is married, has been accused of having an affair with his now deceased staff member.
Congrats Congressman Herrera (shudders)
If Republicans truly do see a collapse with hispanic voters, it'd materialize here too.
Yes, though it’s a much heavier lift than the South Texas trio and maybe even that new gerrymandered seat near San Antonio that Casar used to represent
Heck, Will Hurd held it by fewer than 1,000 votes in 2018.
This is a different district than 2018 or even 2022.
Dems have a no name, no money candidate there, though
Driftwood does get washed in in a big enough wave.
I have a horrible premonition that this is a replay of Cal Cunningham, North Carolina.
At least Cunningham's mistress didn't set herself on fire.
Sadly, I have known several people who’ve taken their own life. But, jeez, self-immolation is one helluva brutal way to go!
SEASIDE LAIR!!!
Pictured: Hall of Doom | Superman Wiki | Fandom https://share.google/YO3HTDqnbMd3EASkb
MD-06:
https://www.democracynow.org/2026/2/18/alexis_goldstein_cfpb_consumer_protection_doge
Alexis Goldstein, fired CFPB official, is running here, I assume in the Dem primary against April McClain-Delaney (haven't watched the video yet). This also marks the first time in my memory that a candidate has announced on Democracy Now. (Which is great IMO, I love D Now.)
Another rep or senator or two or five with a CFPB would be awesome
But I’m not sure MD-6 is the best district to run a primary campaign in considering Delaney and previous incumbent and money printer Trone both already in
"“I’m tired of people asking if I’m electable.”
Jasmine Crockett makes her case on Day 1 of early voting. Telling us she is the “most qualified” candidate and voters should not be distracted by the “dog whistle” of an electability concern.
@FOX4
@JasmineForUS
#TXSEN"
https://x.com/StevenDialFox4/status/2023879120351084719
Ugh, it's tough because that is a real dog whistle people sometimes use against women and candidates of color, but it's also a valid question here. The Crockett people keep bringing up these concerns which are totally valid and based on things that have happened to candidates in the past, so you can't fully dismiss them, by I also don't think they apply here. The sooner this primary is over, the better.
It’s a totally valid question and Crockett’s response strikes me as way too much like “how dare you question me”
Is it too much for Crockett to be another Obama and inspire voters?
I remember Kamala Harris was tough in her presidential campaign but she came across as more genuine and sincere. She didn’t need to bring out the “oh hey, look at me, I’m black” card like it’s almost the central part of her campaign. And Harris was comfortable in her own skin.
Mind you, I have no problem when anyone brings up race. But really. What else do they have?
Also frequently used against progressives in general.
Nevertheless, Crockett is not going to win. Too much of a bombthrower. (I also like Talarico’s emphasis on progressive Christianity, as a progressive Christian myself.)
Seems like a useful lane in Texas, and I love seeing pushback on the idea that the GOP owns Christianity, despite being vehemently against state power for religiosity.
Maybe a follow up of "here is why I am/how i'm going to win" would be helpful?
Ok I'm not even a detractor of Crockett but what exactly makes her more qualified than Talarico? Because she's a lawyer?
I generally like Crockett, but we need less lawyers in Congress. But yeah, I'm not sure what makes her more qualified.
the nc general assembly has a dearth of lawyers and we all have seen how that's been going since 2010, i think its a good idea for people writing the laws to understand how the law itself works
I didn't say we don't need any lawyers at all. I just think that having candidates and representatives from a variety of different backgrounds is good.
Dearth of lawyers? How many are there vs. the number of seats?
https://www.wfdd.org/2025-05-19/carolina-curious-what-professions-are-most-common-among-state-legislators
roughly 19% are attorneys, the remainder are an amalgamation of other professions. The number that used to be higher was real estate professionals, which was my gripe when I went to school at Carolina, as the lack of any development plan was based on the fact there were more realtors than attorneys in the general assembly, however given the chart I just pulled it appears my data from 2019 was a bit outdated.
19% strikes me as still disproportionate representation for lawyers, but in any case good, but I may be missing some important point.
It's giving... psyop
PA-7:
https://www.mcall.com/2026/02/18/mark-pinsley-drops-out-of-race-for-congress-in-lehigh-valley-will-run-for-state-senate-seat/
Progressive Mark Pinsley drops out, running for State Senate instead (specifically PA-SD-16 against incumbent Republican Jarrett Coleman).
From a progressive point of view, good, as now Bob Brooks can consolidate progressive support. Pinsley had no chance anyway.
Also, was Coleman vulnerable or no? I feel like I’d heard he was vulnerable. Any PA people here who can help? (If so, Pinsley, a progressive, would certainly be an upgrade from the GOP).