Morning Digest: The GOP’s biggest game of chicken ends with both sides chickening out

No one wanted to rescue a flailing candidate. Now everyone is.

Ken Paxton (right), Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in Texas. (Credit: Ken Paxton Facebook)

Leading Off

TX-Sen

The GOP’s biggest game of chicken just ended with both sides chickening out.

AdImpact reports that an affiliate of the Senate Leadership Fund is spending more than $50 million on its opening ad campaign to help Republican Ken Paxton fend off Democrat James Talarico.

The intervention comes one week after Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc. began spending $10 million to boost Paxton in Texas’ Senate race.

Both organizations are finally taking action at the end of a summer that saw Talarico, who finished June with a vast $21.5 million to $1.8 million cash advantage, make use of his strong fundraising to dominate the airwaves.

Republicans, by contrast, were anything but enthusiastic about sinking massive sums of money into an expensive state where they’ve controlled both U.S. Senate seats since 1993. At the end of July, the New York Times’ Theodore Schleifer reported that the GOP had exactly $0 reserved in ads for the general election.

Republicans were never likely to cut Paxton loose altogether, but no one wanted to lead the rescue mission. Schleifer described a “high-stakes game of chicken” between SLF and MAGA Inc. as each faction kept waiting for the other to get involved.

Unnamed donors aligned with SLF told Schleifer they believed Trump’s super PAC should open its wallet because of Trump’s own decisions. The GOP’s supreme leader endorsed Paxton’s campaign against Sen. John Cornyn in May despite grim predictions that the scandal-plagued Paxton would force Republicans to spend far more money in a general election.

Paxton went on to defeat Cornyn in a landslide, but the freshly minted Republican nominee reportedly tried to reassure his reluctant new allies that he wouldn’t be a drain on their coffers. According to Schleifer, Paxton told SLF officials in June that he “hoped the race wouldn’t be so close to warrant a heavy spend.”

Few Republicans would harbor such hopes now. An aggregate of surveys compiled by FiftyPlusOne gave Talarico a 47.6 to 44.4 advantage as of Friday, and the last poll to show Paxton ahead—by all of 1 point—was conducted more than a month ago.

Now, with Texas at risk of going blue for the first time in decades, both MAGA Inc. and SLF have begun waging expensive ad campaigns to improve Paxton’s image and tear down Talarico.

One new spot from the SLF-linked Texas PAC goes all-in on transphobia and twice features a clip of Talarico saying, “Defending trans Texans is something we have to do every day.” The ad debuted two days after Talarico told Fox News, “I will oppose trans athletes playing in girls’ sports if it risks safety or fairness.”

A second commercial from Texas PAC focuses entirely on Paxton’s record as state attorney general. The narrator praises the Republican for successfully prosecuting sex traffickers in a case involving a 14-year-old.

Talarico, however, began attacking Paxton on the airwaves late last month, calling his opponent “the most corrupt politician in Texas.”

Unlike Paxton, Talarico isn’t dependent on outside groups to get his message out, but it remains to be seen whether prominent Democratic organizations will start spending now that their Republican counterparts have finally engaged.

The Senate Majority PAC, in a statement mocking SLF for having to get involved, would only say of its own plans, “We’re watching Texas closely, and will continue to.”

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The GOP cuts its first House candidate loose

House

House

No Going Back PAC, an affiliate of Donald Trump’s MAGA Inc., just booked ad time in more than a dozen House races, the New York Times reported on Friday.

Data shared by the Times’ Teddy Schleifer shows that the group’s largest reservation is $6.8 million for Florida’s 25th District, where Democratic Rep. Jared Moskowitz faces Republican Scott Singer for a constituency the GOP gerrymandered earlier this year.

Tracking the full extent of MAGA Inc.’s activities, though, is difficult in part because it has a growing network of affiliates. The Bangor Daily News reports that one such organization, called Safety and Affordability PAC, has booked $4.4 million to help Republican Paul LePage flip Maine’s open 2nd District. LePage is going up against Democrat Matt Dunlap in the race to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Jared Golden.

Mayors & County Leaders

Chicago, IL Mayor

Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson announced Sunday that he would seek reelection next year, a decision that sets up what will be a challenging race for a second term.

Johnson, a progressive Democrat who was elected in a close contest in 2023, has posted weak poll numbers for most of his tenure leading this loyally blue city. One typical recent poll, a June survey from the University of Chicago, gave him a 23-54 approval score.

Johnson’s critics charge he’s done a poor job dealing with issues like crime and the city’s projected $98 million budget gap, while the mayor has defended his record leading the country’s third-largest city, especially with a hostile administration in the White House.

Earlier this year, Johnson told WTTW, “It has been a barrage of just crisis after crisis that I’ve had to manage, but again, you know, I’ve made it very clear that it’s a lot more effective and easier to lead when you are leading with your values and your convictions.”

Johnson’s arguments, though, haven’t deterred high-profile fellow Democrats from challenging him. The race has attracted more than a dozen contenders, including prominent figures like Secretary of State Alexi Giannoulias, state Comptroller Susana Mendoza, and Rep. Mike Quigley.

All candidates will run together in a single, officially nonpartisan primary on Feb. 23. A runoff would take place on April 6 unless one contender wins a majority of the vote, something that hasn’t happened since 2011.

Poll Pile

All polls must comply with The Downballot’s requirements.

• IA-Sen: YouGov:

  • Josh Turek (D): 45, Ashley Hinson (R): 43.

  • YouGov provided data for two different likely voter screens: one that it calls “loose” and the other it calls “strict.” We have reported the former and will continue to do so, as the latter includes only respondents who say they will “definitely” vote.

• KS-Sen: co/efficient:

  • Roger Marshall (R-inc): 49, Adam Hamilton (D): 44, David Graham (L): 2.

  • Co/efficient, a Republican firm, says this poll was “[n]ot sponsored by any candidate committee, party committee, or other independent expenditure.”

• MT-Sen: Rutgers University for the Montana Free Press:

  • Kurt Alme (R): 38, Seth Bodnar (I): 30, Alani Bankhead (D): 16, Kyle Austin (L): 5.

• SD-Sen: Public Policy Polling for Brian Bengs:

  • Mike Rounds (R-inc): 45, Bengs (I): 42.

• CT-Gov: GreatBlue Research for CT Insider and Sacred Heart University:

  • Ned Lamont (D-inc): 52, Ryan Fazio (R): 37.

  • July: 50-30 Lamont.

• IA-Gov: YouGov:

  • Rob Sand (D): 51, Zach Lahn (R): 40.

• KS-Gov: co/efficient:

  • Ty Masterson (R): 51, Cindy Holscher (D): 43.

• CA-34: Upswing Research for Guardrails Alliance:

  • Angela Gonzales-Torres (D): 41, Jimmy Gomez (D-inc): 38.

  • Guardrails Alliance was formed this year to counter pro-AI groups like Leading the Future. The group has not made an endorsement, but its website features Gomez on a list of candidates backed by Leading the Future.

• NV-02: GBAO for the Nevada Alliance:

  • Teresa Benitez-Thompson (D): 38, David Flippo (R): 37, Lynn Chapman (Independent American Party): 14.

  • The Nevada Alliance is a Democratic-aligned organization. The group does not appear to have made an endorsement in this race.

• MO Ballot: Amendment 3 (repeal abortion rights amendment): YouGov/St. Louis University:

  • No: 44, Yes: 43.

  • The poll also asked about a referendum seeking to permanently repeal a Republican-drawn congressional gerrymander. The Downballot wrote up those results in the previous Digest.

• MO Ballot: Amendment 6 (restrict legislature’s ability to interfere with citizen-approved initiatives): YouGov/SLU:

  • Yes: 48, No: 21.

• MO Auditor: YouGov/SLU:

  • Scott Fitzpatrick (R-inc): 45, Quentin Wilson (D): 43.