Arizona Gov. Katie Hobbs (at right), with her new running mate, former Mesa Mayor John Giles (credit: Katie Hobbs video screenshot)
Leading Off
AZ-Gov, AZ-LG
Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs tapped former Mesa Mayor John Giles, a one-time Republican who’s now a registered independent, as her running mate on Tuesday, ahead of Arizona’s first-ever election for the newly created post of lieutenant governor.
Late last month, Hobbs’ Republican rival, Rep. Andy Biggs, chose former state Sen. Sine Kerr to join his ticket. Giles and Kerr will now vie to become their respective partner’s second-in-command, a position that, most importantly, would put them first in the line of succession.
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Ever since Arizona achieved statehood in 1912, that role has been occupied by the secretary of state, who has taken over as governor on multiple occasions. It happened most recently in 2009, when Barack Obama nominated Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano as his Homeland Security secretary.
That move turned control of state government to the GOP as Republican Secretary of State Jan Brewer was elevated to the governorship. Brewer soon shepherded the passage of a notoriously strict anti-immigration law requiring police to ask anyone they might have a “reasonable suspicion” of being in the country without authorization to present paperwork proving their legal status during routine traffic stops.
A failure to carry such papers was also made a crime, though that provision was later struck down by the Supreme Court.
Obama never seemed to address the consequences of his fateful choice. At a commencement speech at Arizona State University in the spring of 2009, a few months after Napolitano joined his Cabinet, Obama said, “I also want to apologize to the entire state of Arizona for stealing away your wonderful former governor, Janet Napolitano,” before immediately adding of Brewer, “But you’ve got a fine governor here.”
As part of an oral history of the Obama presidency produced by Columbia University, Napolitano explained in a 2020 interview why she brushed aside concerns about Brewer succeeding her.
“But in my thinking, Arizona then had a Democratic attorney general named Terry Goddard, and there had already been polling out that he ran double digits ahead of any of the likely Republicans, including Brewer, in the election for governor that was scheduled for 2010,” she said. “And I thought, ‘After two years of Jan Brewer, Terry Goddard should be a shoo-in for governor.’ He lost that election.”
Brewer defeated Goddard 54-42, and Arizona would not elect another Democratic governor until Hobbs’ narrow victory in 2022. That same year, voters also approved a constitutional amendment to establish the office of lieutenant governor by a 55-45 margin after two previous attempts in 1994 and 2010 both failed.
The new law will help ward against another whiplash-inducing transfer of power, though Hobbs’ potential successor would not be a fellow Democrat. However, Giles, who served as mayor from 2014 to 2025, has been on a long migration away from the GOP, culminating in his change of party registration in May.
Four years ago, he endorsed Hobbs’s first bid for governor, and two years later, he not only backed Kamala Harris over Donald Trump but also spoke at the Democratic National Convention. He recently told the Associated Press that he still views himself as a conservative and remained a Republican in the hopes of rescuing his now-former party but no longer believes in that mission.
“A few months ago, I realized that it was time to give up that crusade,” he said.
But while Hobbs is seeking to burnish her bipartisan credentials with her selection of Giles, Biggs made a very different choice. In a statement announcing his pick, Biggs said that Kerr had “worked across the aisle” in the legislature, but she’s best known for her anti-abortion and anti-trans advocacy.
In 2021, she sponsored legislation that would have imposed a near-total ban on abortion in the state, though the measure ultimately died. The proposal would have also imposed a prison sentence of up to nine years on physicians who perform an abortion.
Three years later, she spearheaded a bill that would have replaced the word “gender” with the word “sex” in all Arizona laws because sex is “objective and fixed” and does not include any term “intended to convey a person’s subjective sense of self.” Hobbs vetoed that bill.
Whoever becomes Arizona’s first lieutenant governor won’t have much in the way of official duties, though the law creating the post specifies that the governor must also appoint their No. 2 as their chief of staff, director of the state Department of Administration, or “to any position for which the Governor is otherwise authorized by law to make an appointment.”
And unlike many of their counterparts in other states, they won’t be empowered to break ties in the 30-member state Senate, where the parties had to broker a power-sharing agreement after the 2000 elections produced an even split.
In swingy Arizona, such a deadlock always remains possible, though Democrats are hoping to finally erase the GOP’s 17-13 advantage in the upper chamber this fall. They’re also trying to win back the state House, where Republicans hold a similarly narrow 33-27 edge.
Should Hobbs also earn a second term, it would be the first election since 1964 to see Democrats win full control over Arizona’s government.
All race calls and estimates of the proportion of the vote that’s been tabulated come from the Associated Press. You can also check out our cheat-sheet that summarizes the outcomes in every key race.
Defeated House Incumbents
CT-01 (D) (61-38 Harris)
Former Hartford Mayor Luke Bronin defeated 14-term Rep. John Larson in a 54-33 landslide in Tuesday’s primary for Connecticut’s safely blue 1st District, an outcome that makes the 78-year-old incumbent the seventh House Democrat to lose renomination this year.
Larson, who was first elected in 1998 after narrowly winning a fiercely contested battle for the Democratic nod, never faced any opposition on the ballot during any of his subsequent 13 primaries. The congressman, though, was the subject of unwanted attention last year when he was twice filmed freezing mid-sentence.
Larson dismissed speculation he might retire even after Bronin launched a well-funded campaign to defeat him. Bronin, 47, made his challenge about generational change rather than ideological differences and urged Larson to “pass the torch.”
Larson fought back with ads framing the race as a choice between a proven liberal and a challenger backed by “crypto bros” and data center builders. His appeal, though, failed to break through at a time when Democratic incumbents in their 70s and 80s have faced widespread pressure to step aside.
Alabama
AL-01 (R) (68-32 Trump)
Former Rep. Jerry Carl is almost certainly headed back to Congress after taking close to three-quarters of the vote against three opponents in Tuesday’s GOP primary for the open 1st District, which includes the Mobile area and communities to the east.
Two years ago, Carl lost a primary against a fellow incumbent, Rep. Barry Moore, after court-ordered redistricting left them both in the 1st. Moore won that faceoff, but he chose to run for Senate this year, giving Carl a chance to reclaim his old turf.
AL-02 (R) (57-42 Trump)
State Rep. Rhett Marques defeated his nearest rivals for the GOP nod in a 50-22 landslide on the strength of a Trump endorsement and will now face Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures for the radically redrawn 2nd District in southeastern Alabama.
Last cycle, a court imposed a new map after finding that Republicans had violated the Voting Rights Act by not drawing a second district where Black voters could elect their preferred candidates. That map featured a revamped 2nd District that was home to a Black majority and comfortably elected Figures.
But immediately after the Supreme Court gutted the VRA, the GOP set to work dismantling the 2nd and restoring it to its deeply conservative, majority-white status. Figures said he would seek reelection nonetheless, but the same racially polarized voting that prompted the previous redraw will make it very difficult for him to win, barring a huge surge in Black turnout and a commensurate dip in participation by white voters.
Connecticut
CT-Gov (D) (56-42 Harris)
Gov. Ned Lamont scored a 68-32 win against state Rep. Josh Elliott, a primary challenger three decades his junior who unsuccessfully argued the wealthy incumbent had failed to shake up the status quo.
In November, Lamont will face Republican state Sen. Ryan Fazio, who was unopposed in his primary, as he seeks a third term.
Minnesota
MN-Sen (D & R) (51-47 Harris)
Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan will face Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sportscaster, in the general election for Minnesota’s open U.S. Senate seat.
Flanagan, who campaigned as a progressive, turned in a decisive 59-39 victory against Rep. Angie Craig, who cultivated a more moderate image during her four terms in office.
AdImpact reports that the congresswoman and her allies spent close to $20 million on the airwaves, more than four times as much as Flanagan and her supporters. But Flanagan, who had the support of retiring Sen. Tina Smith and other prominent figures like Rep. Ilhan Omar, successfully went after Craig for voting for the Laken Riley Act last year, a vote Craig apologized for during the campaign.
Craig unsuccessfully pushed back by arguing that a long-running investigation into allegations of fraud in the state’s welfare system would hurt Flanagan in the general election, but Republicans are sure to test the potency of that attack. The NRSC, which backed Tafoya ahead of her easy primary win, even meddled in the Democratic nomination contest with digital ads boosting Flanagan.
Tafoya, though, remains the underdog in a state where Republicans, despite some close calls, haven’t won a statewide election since 2006. ICE’s operations this winter in and around Minneapolis have also energized Democratic voters, complicating Tafoya’s path in a state that Donald Trump lost in all three of his campaigns.
If Flanagan, a member of the White Earth Band of Ojibwe, prevails in the fall, she would make history as the first Native American woman to ever serve in the Senate. Flanagan often introduces herself at campaign events by explaining that her name in Ojibwe is Gizhiiwewidamookwe, which translates as Speaks in a Loud and Clear Voice Woman.
MN-Gov (R) (51-47 Harris)
State House Speaker Lisa Demuth convincingly defeated Mike Lindell, the election-denying pillow salesman backed by Donald Trump, 43-32 in the Republican primary for Minnesota’s open governorship.
In the fall, Demuth will go up against Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who easily bypassed her little-known intraparty opponents. Either nominee would be the first woman to lead Minnesota, while Demuth would also be the state’s first Black governor.
Demuth will test whether the state’s welfare fraud scandal, which spurred Democratic Gov. Tim Walz to end his reelection campaign in January, will give her an opening against Klobuchar. However, the same forces that make the state’s U.S. Senate race such a reach for the GOP, as well as Klobuchar’s history of success at the ballot box, make Demuth the underdog.
One prominent Republican, though, is happy to have Demuth leading the ticket rather than Trump’s pick.
State GOP chair Alex Plechash responded to Trump’s decision to endorse Lindell last month by warning that his nomination would make it easier for Democrats to win the governorship and both chambers of the narrowly divided legislature, returning them to full control of the state government. (The state House is currently split.)
Republican voters apparently agreed, making Lindell the third Trump-backed candidate for governor to lose his primary this year.
Former state Sen. Matt Little outpaced state Sen. Matt Klein 47-30 in the Democratic primary for the House seat Democratic Rep. Angie Craig gave up to run for the Senate. Little, who campaigned as the most progressive option, will take on state Sen. Eric Pratt, who won the Republican nomination without opposition.
Minnesota’s 2nd District, based in the Twin Cities’ southern suburbs, has long been competitive turf, but it shifted left as suburbanites abandoned the Trump-era Republican Party. While political observers are watching to see whether the 2nd snaps back now that Craig isn’t around to defend it, no major outside groups from either party have reserved ad time here yet.
Hennepin County, MN Attorney (top two) (70-27 Harris)
State Rep. Cedrick Frazier and former acting U.S. Attorney Anders Folk will compete in the officially nonpartisan November general election to replace Hennepin County Attorney Mary Moriarty, a fellow Democrat who is not seeking reelection as the top prosecutor for Minnesota’s most populous county.
Frazier, who last year told the Minnesota Star Tribune that he would be the first Black person elected to serve as a county prosecutor anywhere in the state, was far out in front with 36% of the vote in the five-way race. Folk outpaced former prosecutor Diane Krenz 23-19 for the second spot.
The two finalists have had very different things to say about Moriarty, who was elected as a criminal justice reformer in 2022.
Frazier, who co-chaired Moriarty’s transition team, told the Star Tribune in 2025 that he shares an outlook with the incumbent even as he declared he wasn’t “Mary 2.0.” He also has touted endorsements from well-known Democrats like Sen. Tina Smith, Rep. Ilhan Omar, and Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan.
Folk, for his part, has been critical of Moriarty, arguing that she’s done a poor job battling gang violence. He celebrated his win with a statement saying that voters were “uniting around a shared conviction that public safety, accountability, and the rule of law are now more important than ever.” Folk has the support of Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey, who has clashed with progressive figures in local politics.
South Carolina
SC-Sen (R) (58-40 Trump)
Sen. Darline Graham and Rep. Ralph Norman will square off again in just two weeks after neither candidate managed to win a majority in the special GOP primary to pick a replacement for the senator’s late brother, Lindsey Graham.
The Trump-backed Graham led Norman 33-25, while Rep. Russell Fry finished out of the running with 20% of the vote. Former Rep. Mark Sanford took fourth place with just 15%, with another 6% going to wealthy businessman Mark Lynch.
The winner of the Aug. 25 runoff will face physician Annie Andrews, who won the Democratic nomination in June.
Vermont
VT-Gov (D) (64-32 Harris)
Economist Amanda Janoo defeated former nonprofit CEO Aly Richards by a tight 49-47 margin and will now face the challenging task of denying a sixth two-year term to Republican Gov. Phil Scott.
Scott has defied political gravity in this ordinarily blue state by distancing himself from the national GOP brand, but a poll last month from the University of New Hampshire put him up just 44-33 on Janoo. Given that Scott won his last race in a 73-22 demolition, he could potentially be vulnerable if his numbers have retreated as far as UNH suggests.
Wisconsin
WI-Gov (D) (50-49 Trump)
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley defied the polls in extraordinary fashion to defeat state Rep. Francesca Hong in the Democratic primary for Wisconsin’s open governorship.
Crowley will face Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, in the November race to succeed retiring Gov. Tony Evers.
The outcome cut sharply against what public polling had predicted. Hong, a member of the Democratic Socialist of America, led Crowley by an average of 20 points, according to FiftyPlusOne, and looked set to cruise to the nomination. Establishment Democrats, worried that Hong’s left-wing rhetoric and idiosyncratic views might deprive them of their first chance to take full control of state government since 2010, seemed unable to halt her rise.
Crowley ultimately emerged as their final hope after several other candidates dropped out late in the race—including Crowley himself. But after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez’s bid imploded after she fired her campaign manager for alleged financial mismanagement, he re-entered the primary, this time with the endorsement of Evers.
Still, his chances looked grim, though his campaign argued otherwise. In a memo last week, Crowley’s campaign manager, Garren Randolph, pointed to polling in Michigan’s Senate primary, which overestimated another left-wing candidate, Abdul El-Sayed, as evidence that the numbers might be off in Wisconsin, too.
“The voter file, published survey crosstabs, and public ad tracking data all show a much closer race than the toplines suggest and that the election will be decided by a different electorate than the one those toplines assume,” Randolph wrote.
Against intense headwinds, that prediction proved to be right.
Now Crowley will go head-to-head with Tiffany, an election denier who joined the majority of his party in voting against recognizing Joe Biden’s win hours after the Jan. 6 riot. The congressman, though, has also taken some stances even further to the right of most of his fellow Republicans.
In 2020, for instance, he was one of only 18 members to oppose a resolution condemning QAnon, a move he said he made in protest to a bill he saw as “purely political posturing.”
The congressman’s biggest vulnerability, though, may be his longtime opposition to abortion rights. Tiffany, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel highlighted last year, backed unsuccessful bills in 2022 and 2023 that would have banned abortion after just six weeks with few exceptions.
Both sides are certain to spend heavily through Election Day, as Republicans fight to maintain their vulnerable majorities in both chambers of the legislature and reclaim the governor’s mansion. Democrats, meanwhile, are hoping that their long journey back to power in Wisconsin will finally reach its end with victories up and down the ballot in November.
WI-03 (D) (53-46 Trump)
Businesswoman Rebecca Cooke will face Republican Rep. Derrick Van Orden in a rematch two years after he narrowly defeated her in their first bout for the 3rd District in southwestern Wisconsin.
Cooke, whose long list of endorsements included Bernie Sanders, the DCCC, and the centrist Blue Dog Coalition, held off former Eau Claire City Council President Emily Berge 61-39.
The newly minted nominee, who also lost the 2022 primary in this district, has reason to be optimistic about her third try against Van Orden, who has spent his two terms in office making headlines by screaming at teenage Senate pages in the Capitol rotunda and spreading far-right conspiracy theories.
Cooke lost to Van Orden just 51-49 in 2024 as Donald Trump was carrying the 3rd District by a wider 53-46 spread. Trump’s cratering approval ratings, though, leave the congressman with even less room for error.
Both parties are preparing for another expensive race. The pro-Democratic House Majority PAC has reserved over $6 million in ad time in southern Wisconsin, while the Congressional Leadership Fund has booked $1.5 million to defend Van Orden.
WI-07 (R) (61-38 Trump)
Michael Alfonso, a podcast producer backed by Donald Trump, decisively defeated four other Republicans in the primary for the northwestern Wisconsin constituency GOP Rep. Tom Tiffany is giving up to run for governor. Alfonso led his nearest opponent, investment adviser Kevin Hermening, 49-27.
Alfonso, whose father-in-law, Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy, is Tiffany’s immediate predecessor, was the target of ads branding him a “nepo baby.” Those spots, though, didn’t stop Alfonso, who benefited from heavy outside spending.
Governors
WY-Gov
Tuesday’s Republican primary for Wyoming’s open governorship has turned sharply negative during the homestretch, with state Sen. Eric Barlow and Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder both sustaining attacks from outside groups.
Barlow, an ardent conservative who has nonetheless come into conflict with the state’s chapter of the far-right Freedom Caucus, was the first to find himself on the defensive.
Last month, an outfit called Women for Responsible Government Action launched ads accusing Barlow of allowing gender affirming care “to be done on kids,” citing his vote against a 2023 bill that would have made it illegal for doctors and parents to allow such treatment. The group is run by allies of Rep. Harriet Hageman, the likely nominee for U.S. Senate and a supporter of the local Freedom Caucus.
Cowboy State Daily’s Clair McFarland quoted Barlow three years ago saying he felt the legislation in question wasn’t written well enough to achieve its goals. He instead backed a similar bill he called “very precise,” which was later signed into law by GOP Gov. Mark Gordon.
Degenfelder, who has the backing of both Donald Trump and Hageman in the race to replace Gordon as leader of the nation’s most Republican state, was in the hot seat this month when a newly formed group called Keep Wyoming Working went on the offensive.
In an ad, the group claimed Degenfelder engaged in “dirty deals” when she worked for a coal company that later went bankrupt, with the narrator saying she was “paid thousands to lobby for loopholes that let her company dodge millions in local taxes.” The spot does not explain what sort of “loopholes” Degenfelder allegedly utilized.
Degenfelder’s allies were quick to condemn the messaging as a smear from Barlow’s camp.
“It was recently brought to my attention that Eric Barlow and his associates created a new ad villainizing the coal industry as ‘dirty jobs,’” Hageman wrote on Facebook.
Barlow, for his part, denied he had anything to do with the attacks.
“I’m Eric Barlow, and I do not approve of any negative campaigning against any individual who’s running for office,” he said in a video he posted to Facebook.
Marine veteran Brent Bien, the third and final notable candidate for governor, has been ignored by outside groups amid the imbroglio. An aide likewise told McFarland the campaign wasn’t involved with Keep Wyoming Working’s activities, saying, “We don’t have any money.”
Bien, who challenged Gordon in 2022 and lost 62-30, secured the Wyoming Republican Party’s endorsement last month for his new effort. That seal of approval, though, may not be worth all that much. GOP chair Bryan Miller, citing a state law prohibiting parties from using resources in contested primaries, told WyoFile, “We obviously can’t put ads in the papers and do all those different things.”
The only publicly available survey of the race was a July internal poll from Barlow’s campaign that showed him beating Degenfelder 42-19. That survey, from Pulse Decision Science, placed Bien just behind with 14% of the vote.
House
FL-02
Wealthy attorney Keith Gross said last week that a super PAC supporting former Senate aide Austin Rogers agreed to take down an ad attacking him ahead of Tuesday’s GOP primary for Florida’s open 2nd District after Gross sent a cease-and-desist letter.
Panhandle Patriots debuted a commercial earlier this month centered around Gross’ 2008 campaign for the Georgia House of Representatives as a Democrat, which ended after a court ruled that he failed to meet the state’s residency requirements. The spot emphasized Gross saying at the time he wanted to be the chamber’s “first openly gay” member.
“I haven’t been a Democrat since the same year President Trump himself was a Democrat and supporting Hillary Clinton,” Gross tweeted on Thursday. The candidate, who did not address his unsuccessful repeat bid for the Democratic nod two years later, continued his post, “To make it all worse, they stole my own campaign pictures for use in their deceitful ad.”
Gross attached a letter from an attorney for Panhandle Patriots, a group run by Rogers’ father and father-in-law, with the subject “Response to Unauthorized Use of Copyrighted Logos and Images in Campaign Advertisement.” The missive said that while the super PAC “does not concede the allegations and reserves all rights, claims, and defenses,” the ad in question was “no longer being disseminated on the airwaves.”
Limited polling shows Gross and Rogers, who stepped down as Sen. Rick Scott’s general counsel to run for the House, as the frontrunners in the primary for the reliably red north Florida constituency Republican Rep. Neal Dunn is giving up.
WA-05
Firefighter Nate Powell, an independent seeking to take on Republican Rep. Mike Baumgartner, conceded the second slot in the top-two primary for Washington’s conservative 5th District on Monday evening and endorsed Democrat Carmela Conroy.
Though Powell had received a significant infusion of outside help, Conroy, a retired diplomat, may have benefited from greater name recognition as Baumgartner’s previous general election opponent in 2024. With an estimated 90% of the vote counted shortly after Powell conceded, Baumgartner was in first with 47%, while Conroy led Powell 19-16.
Two years ago, when the 5th became open following Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers’ retirement, Baumgartner defeated Conroy 61-39, running well ahead of Donald Trump’s 54-43 margin. Evidently preferring to once again face his previous opponent rather than an independent, Baumgartner ran ads ahead of the primary designed to boost Conroy, which seem to have paid off.
DCCC
The DCCC has added two more Democrats to its Red to Blue program for top House candidates: ironworker Brian Poindexter, who’s challenging Republican Rep. Max Miller in Ohio’s 7th District, and former prosecutor Christina Hines, who’s running to flip Michigan’s open 10th.
Some notable names remain off the roster, though, including another contender who just won a primary in Michigan, climate activist William Lawrence. Lawrence, an outspoken progressive, defeated two more moderate rivals last week in the 7th District, where Republican Rep. Tom Barrett is seeking reelection.
Lawrence, until recently a member of the Democratic Socialists of America, told CNN last week that he let his membership lapse last month and sought to distance himself from the group.
“I’ve got a lot of respect for DSA and the work that they’re doing around the country,” he said. “But I felt the need to make it very clear that the platform we’re running on here is the one that has come up based on the conversations we’re having across the 7th District.”
State Auditor Matt Dunlap, who is running to defend Maine’s open 2nd District, also has yet to be embraced by the committee. At a press conference late last month, Dunlap told reporters, “We’re not officially in the Red to Blue program yet, but it’s going to happen.”
Legislatures
WA State Senate
Senate Majority Leader Jamie Pedersen and Hannah Sabio-Howell, a fellow Democrat backed by Seattle Mayor Katie Wilson, will face off again in the November general election, but the results of last week’s top-two primary underscore just how tough it will be for Sabio-Howell to unseat the chamber’s most powerful member.
With most votes tabulated from the Aug. 4 contest, Pedersen holds a 67-23 lead over Sabio-Howell, a former legislative aide who’s argued that the incumbent has done too little to bring about progressive change. (The balance went to an unaffiliated candidate.)
The two Democrats are competing for the 43rd Legislative District, a constituency around downtown Seattle where Kamala Harris won close to 90% of the vote.
Great write up about the WI governor primary race. Voters dodged a bullet by going for Crowley for the Democratic nomination instead of Hong.
The WI GOP was denied their preferred candidate, although I'm sure they will dog whistle about crime in Milwaukee till the cows come home.
I think Wisconsin finally broke Kornacki last night