Morning Digest: Congresswoman joins Minnesota Senate race, saying it's 'time to fight back'

Angie Craig, a veteran of tough races, starts off the primary with a financial edge

Minnesota Rep. Angie Craig (D) (credit: Angie Craig Facebook)

Leading Off

MN-Sen

Rep. Angie Craig announced this morning that she would run to succeed retiring Sen. Tina Smith, a fellow Minnesota Democrat.

Craig became the first gay person to represent the North Star State in Congress following her 2018 victory in a competitive House seat, and she'd renew that distinction as the state's first LGBTQ senator if she wins her campaign for the upper chamber.

Though regarded as a moderate throughout her career, Craig's opening embrace of an aggressive response to Trump is the latest sign that coming Democratic primaries will be fought less over ideological differences and more over each candidate's willingness to fight. Right out of the gate in her launch video, Craig signaled which side of the divide she wants to associate herself with.

In her announcement, the congresswoman blasted "an out-of-control, unelected billionaire trying to take over our government and burn it to the ground" as well as "a president trampling our rights and freedoms as he profits for personal gain" and "a cowardly Republican Party rolling over and letting it all happen."

"It's time to fight back," she continued. "We've got to break through the chaos and take them head-on."

Craig's entry into the Democratic primary follows earlier campaign launches from both Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan and former state Sen. Melisa Lopez Franzen, but she nonetheless starts with a sizable fundraising advantage. Craig finished March with $1.1 million in her House account that she can immediately transfer to her new effort; Flanagan and Lopez Franzen were well behind with $370,000 and $250,000 available, respectively.

Republicans, meanwhile, talked about targeting this seat after Smith unexpectedly announced her retirement in February, but they have yet to land any big names. However, several remain interested in running in a state that Kamala Harris carried by a modest 51-47 margin, though none have won statewide since 2006.

Craig, a former reporter and executive at a medical device manufacturer, is no stranger to competitive races. In 2016, during her first bid to flip the open 2nd Congressional District in the southern Twin Cities suburbs, her campaign against conservative radio host Jason Lewis was one of the most closely watched House contests in the country.

But while Craig and her allies blasted Lewis' long and ugly history of racist and misogynist commentary on the air, Donald Trump's close victory in the 2nd helped Lewis eke out a 47-45 win.

Craig sought a rematch in 2018, but this time, she focused her efforts on attacking Lewis' voting record―including his support for repealing the Affordable Care Act―and stayed away from his talk radio past. Craig maintained her strategy even after media outlets unearthed even more of Lewis' old offensive comments, and she prevailed 53-47 as Democrats retook the House.

Two years later, Marine veteran Tyler Kistner stepped up to take on the new congresswoman while Lewis waged an unsuccessful Senate bid against Smith. The House race took a bizarre turn in late September of 2020, however, when Minnesota election officials announced that the death of Legal Marijuana Now Party candidate Adam Weeks so close to Election Day had triggered a state law requiring the election be postponed until February, an outcome that would have left this seat vacant for the first month of the new Congress.

Craig successfully challenged the decision in federal court by arguing that Minnesota's law conflicted with a 19th century federal law setting congressional elections for the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November. The election, which took place on the same day that the other 434 House seats were on the ballot, ended with a 48-46 victory for Craig as Weeks posthumously secured 6% of the vote.

Kistner was encouraged by his showing, especially since Joe Biden had carried the 2nd 52-46, and he soon announced he would run again in 2022. Craig, though, fended him off by a larger 51-46 margin even as Republicans narrowly took control of the House.

The GOP wanted to target Craig again in 2024, but former federal prosecutor Joe Teirab struggled to gain traction even before local Republicans descended into infighting. Craig ran far ahead of the top of the ticket this time: The incumbent won her fourth term in a 56-42 landslide as Harris, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried her 2nd District 52-46.

Election Night

Special Elections

Two special elections are on tap tonight for a pair of Midwestern legislative seats that are vacant for very different reasons.

Democrats in Iowa are defending the 78th House District, which Democrat Sami Scheetz left this month to accept an appointment to the Linn County Board of Supervisors. Kamala Harris, according to calculations by The Downballot, carried this Cedar Rapids-based constituency 66-33 even as Donald Trump was decisively carrying the entire state.

The Democratic nominee is Angel Ramirez, a former legislative staffer and nonprofit founder who would be the first Latina to serve in the state legislature. Her opponent is Republican Bernie Hayes, who badly lost legislative races in this area in 2018 and 2022. The GOP holds a 67-32 supermajority, with only this seat unfilled.

Minnesota's 6th Senate District, meanwhile, became vacant in March after federal authorities arrested Justin Eichorn for allegedly soliciting a minor. This seat, which includes rural communities in the north-central part of the state, backed Trump 63-36 last year after favoring him 59-37 in 2020.

Republicans are fielding Keri Heitzeman, a conservative activist who is married to local state Rep. Josh Heitzeman. The Democratic nominee is Denise Slipy, who works in the wind energy industry and is also a reserve police officer. Democrats hold a 34-32 majority in the Senate, with only this seat vacant.

Senate

IL-Sen

Illinois Sen. Tammy Duckworth endorsed Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton on Monday in the race to replace retiring Sen. Dick Durbin. Stratton, the first major Democrat in the race, previously earned an endorsement from Gov. J.B. Pritzker ahead of what will likely be an expensive and busy primary.

NH-Sen

Former Gov. John Lynch has endorsed Rep. Chris Pappas in his quest to join the Senate, meaning that every living Democrat who's ever won statewide office in New Hampshire is now on Team Pappas.

It's a short list, though, because the only positions that qualify are senator and governor. Pappas already secured the backing of the two Democratic women who've held both jobs, retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and her Senate colleague, Maggie Hassan.

TX-Sen

Former Democratic Rep. Beto O'Rourke, who came close to unseating Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2018, teased the possibility of another Senate bid at a town hall over the weekend.

"But if it comes to pass that this is what the people of Texas want—that it's the highest and best use of what I can give to you—then yes, I will," O'Rourke said to cheers. The former congressman, who spent much of 2019 running for president, lost the 2022 race for governor 55-44 to Republican incumbent Greg Abbott.

Several prominent Democrats have been mentioned as possible candidates, but none have yet taken a leap as a messy Republican primary unfolds between incumbent John Cornyn and his newly minted challenger, Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Governors

GA-Gov

Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms formed a fundraising committee Monday, a move that comes a few weeks after she told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution she plans to seek the Democratic nomination for governor of Georgia. Bottoms has yet to announce she's running, though AJC reporter Greg Bluestein writes she "plans to soon formally launch" her campaign to succeed Republican Gov. Brian Kemp.

On the Republican side, Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger also did not rule out running to succeed the termed-out Kemp in what appear to be his first public comments about the race. Raffensperger, though, doesn't seem to be in a hurry to decide, telling Bluestein, "We'll just wait and see and let the summer play out."

IA-Gov

State Sen. Amy Sinclair told Raccoon Valley Radio over the weekend that she might consider a bid to succeed retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds, a fellow Republican, after the current legislative session ends.

Other Iowa lawmakers have also said they'll wait until the session is over to announce their plans, but it's not clear exactly when that will be. Unlike many other states, Iowa doesn't have a set date for the legislature to conclude its business, though lawmakers will no longer get a per diem after Friday.

MN-Gov

Democratic Gov. Tim Walz said Saturday he intends to seek a third term next year, though he acknowledged he hasn't made a final decision.

"I am raising the necessary resources to run for reelection at this time," he told the Minnesota Star Tribune. "And so that's where, nothing changes, we're going to do." Walz said in January that he'll probably make a decision "sometime in June, sometime this summer," which is after the legislature's May 19 adjournment date.

NM-Gov

Former Lt. Gov. John Sanchez hasn't publicly expressed interest in seeking the Republican nomination for governor of New Mexico, but multiple sources tell reporter Joe Monahan they anticipate he'll run. They also believe that Sanchez, a Donald Trump ally, would be the frontrunner in the GOP primary against Rio Rancho Mayor Gregg Hull, the GOP's only declared candidate for this open seat.

Sanchez, though, lost the 2002 general election to Democrat Bill Richardson in a 55-39 landslide. He was later elected lieutenant governor in 2010 and 2014 as Susana Martinez's running mate, but his renewed attempts to campaign solo haven't worked out. Sanchez ended his 2012 Senate bid well before the primary, and he's yet to make good on his years of talk of running statewide again.

NY-Gov

Rep. Elise Stefanik would start off with a wide 44-7 lead over fellow Rep. Mike Lawler in a hypothetical Republican primary for governor, according to a new poll. The survey, from Republican pollster GrayHouse and obtained by Punchbowl, also shows Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman at 5 and another 44% undecided.

The poll, which Punchbowl says was not conducted for a client, also tries to argue that Stefanik "would give Republicans their strongest opportunity" to unseat Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul. The congresswoman, though, fares little better than her two potential rivals: Hochul leads Stefanik 46-40 while beating out Lawler 45-38 and Blakeman 44-36.

SD-Gov

Mason-Dixon, polling on behalf of South Dakota News Watch and the University of South Dakota, is out with the first survey we've seen of next year's slowly developing Republican primary for governor:

• Rep. Dusty Johnson: 28

• Gov. Larry Rhoden: 27

• Attorney General Marty Jackley: 18

• Businessman Toby Doeden: 4

• State House Speaker Jon Hansen: 2

• Undecided: 20

This poll was conducted in mid-April before Hansen became the first, and so far only, declared GOP candidate. The other four Republicans have expressed interest but have yet to enter the race.

House

IL-09

Bushra Amiwala, a member of the Skokie School Board, told Evanston Now on Thursday that she's interested in running to succeed Rep. Jan Schakowsky, a fellow Democrat, if Schakowsky decides to retire. Politico reported last week that the 80-year-old Schakowsky will announce on May 5 that she won't seek a 15th term in Illinois' safely blue 9th District. Schakowsky said in response that she had yet to make a decision, though she confirmed that she would reveal her plans on that date.

MI-13

State Rep. Donavan McKinney announced Monday that he would challenge Rep. Shri Thanedar in the Democratic primary for Michigan's 13th District, a safely blue constituency based in Detroit.

McKinney launched his campaign two weeks after former state Sen. Adam Hollier kicked off his own effort to deny Thanedar renomination. The state representative begins his effort with the endorsement of the Justice Democrats, a left-wing group that helped oust four House incumbents in primaries in 2018 and 2020.

McKinney, who lost to Thanedar 35-20 in an eight-way primary for the state House in 2020, won a different seat in the legislature two years later. The state lawmaker, who previously worked for SEIU Healthcare Michigan, has made a name for himself as a labor ally, and Politico reported in February that union leaders wanted him to take on Thanedar.

In a statement accompanying his rollout, McKinney blasted the congressman as "a self-funded multimillionaire who has more in common with Donald Trump and Elon Musk than the community he was elected to represent." He also highlighted his roots growing up in Detroit; Thanedar, by contrast, relocated from the Ann Arbor area shortly before running for the legislature six years ago.

Thanedar defeated Hollier 28-24 in a packed 2022 contest for the open 13th District, an outcome that left the city without a Black representative in Congress for the first time since the early 1950s. (Thanedar is Indian American while Detroit's other House member, Democratic Rep. Rashida Tlaib, is Palestinian American.)

Hollier ran again last year but failed to make the ballot after election officials determined that he hadn't turned in enough valid signatures, and Thanedar went on to beat another opponent to secure renomination. Hollier embarked on his third effort mid-April by saying that he'd learned from that mistake and blasted the incumbent as one of the "millionaires and billionaires trying to buy our government."

The presence of both McKinney and Hollier on the ballot could, however, make it easier for Thanedar to again secure victory with a plurality, a scenario the congressman's critics want to avoid. A person close to the Congressional Black Caucus told Politico in February, "Black leaders in Detroit are going to coalesce around someone and then voters will decide who can best represent their values."

NE-02

Two Democrats in the Omaha area say they're considering seeking Nebraska's swingy 2nd District, where Republican Rep. Don Bacon is flirting with retirement.

State Sen. John Cavanaugh told the Nebraska Examiner's Juan Salinas he was interested in running, and that he was willing to oppose Bacon if necessary. Cavanaugh hails from a prominent local political family: His father and namesake represented the 2nd District from 1977 to 1981, while his sister, Machaela Cavanaugh, serves with him in the state's unique unicameral legislature.

Political strategist Denise Powell also said that she might run for Congress, though Salinas writes that she didn't indicate whether she would challenge Bacon should he seek reelection. Powell runs the political action committee Women Who Run Nebraska, which is devoted to electing progressive women.

PA-10

Former local TV anchor Janelle Stelson tells the Associated Press that she anticipates launching a rematch campaign against far-right Rep. Scott Perry in July. No other prominent Democrats have expressed interest in taking on Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th District, which is based in the Harrisburg and York area.

Perry held off Stelson 51-49 last year as Donald Trump was carrying his constituency by a wider 52-47 spread, according to calculations by The Downballot. Perry, like many of his colleagues, has eschewed in-person town halls back home as Republicans try to dodge angry constituents, though he's taken an extra step to avoid the public. The AP says that Perry's four offices were unreachable by phone during much of the past two weeks, and that his district office was locked when a reporter visited.

VA-11

Democratic Rep. Gerry Connolly announced Monday that he would not seek reelection in Virginia's 11th Congressional District, a decision he made after learning that his esophageal cancer had returned. The veteran congressman, who underwent treatment days after winning a ninth term last fall, is the first member of the House to announce an outright retirement this year.

Connolly's Northern Virginia constituency, which is located entirely in Fairfax County and the independent city of the same name, was competitive when he once won it in 2008, but it's now safely blue turf. Kamala Harris carried the 11th 66-31, according to calculations from The Downballot, so whoever wins next year's Democratic primary should have little trouble holding it.

Connolly's retirement ends a long career in state and national politics that began in 1979 when he became a staffer for the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Connolly, who would later work for the information technology giant SAIC, first won office himself in 1995 when he decisively prevailed in a special election for the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors.

He was later elected countywide in 2003 when he won a closely watched contest to become chair of the Board of Supervisors, a victory that made him one of the most prominent figures in a voter-rich community that was in the midst of shedding its reputation as a Republican stronghold.

A major shift came the next year, when John Kerry became the first Democratic presidential nominee to carry Fairfax County since Lyndon Johnson in 1964. Connolly explained to the Washington Post, "Fairfax is a highly educated community … that's moving toward centrist values."

Democrats in the area got more welcome news in 2008 when seven-term Rep. Tom Davis, who had risen to prominence as chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, decided not to seek reelection. Connolly, who convincingly won the Democratic primary, soon emerged as the favorite against wealthy businessman Keith Fimian, a Republican who struggled to gain traction at a time when Barack Obama looked poised to do well in Northern Virginia.

Things in fact turned so grim for the GOP heading into Election Day that Connolly said of Davis, "This is somebody who did a lot for party building, certainly at the national level and certainly here in Virginia at the state and local level. And he saw it all slipping away." That confidence was well-founded: Connolly defeated Fimian in a 55-43 blowout as Obama was carrying the 11th 57-42, a major shift from George W. Bush's 50-49 win over Kerry four years earlier.

The Fairfax County GOP, however, wasn't quite down for the count yet, as Republican Bob McDonnell carried the 11th by 10 points in his blowout win for governor the following year. Connolly, however, lucked out in 2010 when Fimian defeated Supervisor Pat Herrity, who had a more moderate profile, in the GOP primary, though there was no question their rematch would be far more competitive than their first bout.

Connolly's long-established connections to his constituents helped him barely hang on by a 49.2-48.8 margin in an ugly year for Democrats nationwide. That close call, though, would be the last time he had to worry about reelection, because the Republican legislature soon passed a gerrymander that made Connolly's seat more Democratic to protect their grip on other seats.

Connolly was in the spotlight one final time last year when his fellow Democrats picked him to serve as the top Democrat on the Oversight Committee over New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, whose supporters argued would make a more vigorous case against Republican corruption. AOC didn't leave empty-handed, though, as she earned a spot on the influential Energy and Commerce Committee instead.

Ballot Measures

UT Ballot

A referendum to repeal a Republican bill clamping down on collective bargaining rights will go before Utah voters after election officials confirmed that organizers had submitted a sufficient number of valid signatures.

Because the measure has now qualified for the ballot, the law it's targeting—which prohibits governments from engaging in collective bargaining with public employee unions—will be put on hold until voters can weigh in. It's not clear when exactly that will be, though: Under state law, a vote would be held in November of 2026, but Republican Gov. Spencer Cox could set a special election for an earlier date.

Obituaries

Bob Filner

Democrat Bob Filner, who served in the House for two decades but was forced out as mayor of San Diego after less than a year amid a major sexual harassment scandal, died on April 20 at the age of 82.

Strangely, Filner's death went unreported for more than a week, until the Voice of San Diego mentioned it on Monday as the third item in a newsletter. Only later that day did other local outlets pick up the news.

Filner, who was a Freedom Rider during the Civil Rights movement, began his career in elective politics when he won a seat on the local board of education in 1979. After later earning a spot on the City Council, Filner ran for a newly created House seat in 1992, narrowly winning a multi-way primary with just 26% of the vote before comfortably prevailing in November.

Filner never faced a difficult general election, though he was repeatedly challenged in primaries by fellow Democrat Juan Vargas. Eventually, though, the two reconciled when Filner ran for mayor in 2012 with Vargas' endorsement while Vargas won the race to succeed Filner in Congress.

With his victory that year, Filner became the first Democrat to win an election for mayor in San Diego in two decades, but his success was short-lived. The following summer, Filner resigned from office after a cavalcade of women accused him of harassing them, eventually totaling 19 in number.

Months later, Filner pleaded guilty to three counts of assault and served a three-month term under house arrest.