In general, there is quite a bit of evidence against reverse coattails. However, Robinson is so far beyond the pale that it is possible that he may help Harris around the margins, which might be enough to secure her victory in NC.
I totally agree and have said that many times before on this board. This might be the one time in 100 where it might matter by just a fraction of a point. No matter what the polls say by Election Day I think Harris gets NC
Usually goes the other way. The polling shows a Democratic win in NC but then the Republican prevails. The best hope Dems have throughout the battlegrounds is that pollsters are weighting too heavily on obsolete 2016 and 2020 electorates just as pollsters weighted too heavily on Obama electorates during the Trump era. We saw signs of that in 2022 , in NC and elsewhere, and it's not unreasonable to think the same could happen again. I'm certainly getting too mentally invested in that narrative, but after 2022, it wouldn't surprise me.
If this helps us I wouldn't expect it to happen via reverse coattails — the top of the ticket doing better because someone downballot is doing better.
Instead, if it helps us it's by damaging the republican brand across the state. Robinson is a statewide elected republican that enjoyed the party's support up until now, when he was already known to be extreme. Persuadable voters might find it easier to conclude that Trump is a toxic extremist when they're willing to conclude that Robinson is a toxic extremist. If the two most prominent republican candidates in the state are toxic extremists, it's not much of a leap to conclude that applies to the whole party.
Not saying that will or won't happen. If we do benefit across the state, I'd expect it'd be that way and not reverse coattails.
I very much agree with your thought process. I do think that if she ultimately wins NC that parsing out whether it was because she tied Trump and Robinson together or because of reverse coattails in the way that we think about that term, both sides will claim that to be the case and it'll be essentially impossible to disprove either argument.
The Harris campaign and loads of political professionals appear to think the Republican Party in NC is going to take a bath because of the gubernatorial campaign.
I really hesitate to say that it's "never been a thing". One, it's too broad of a claim to make. Second... how could the causality be proven from one race to another?
More specifically, if it turns out that Stein wins NC-Gov solidly and Harris wins the state by the narrowest of margins, there could be so many things attributed to her winning. Stein's solid performance and Robinson's meltdown would almost certainly be one of them - among others.
In short, I don't think it's a falsifiable question.
We can look at examples of how the top of the ticket performed as expected, but the 2nd highest office in the ballot was a wild overperformance, and didn't translate to trickling up to the top of the ticket.
Most recently we had NH-Gov and VT-Gov, as well as ME-Sen in 2020.
In New Hampshire John Sununu (R) won by 32 points. Obviously that didn't translate upwards ,as Biden won it by 8, which was an improvement over Clinton's performance 4 years earlier.
Phil Scott (R) in Vermont won by 41(!). That's didn't stop Biden from winning the State by 35 points. That's a 76 point delta in Republican performance. No way that exists if reverse coat tails existed.
Susanne Collins (R) won by a comfortable 9 point margin, the same margin Biden carried the state in on the same ballot.
You can go back as far as you want and pick and 2nd highest office overperformer and how that simply doesn't help the highest office in that same election. Amy Klobuchar won by 35 in Minneaota, while Obama won by the customary ~8 point win average Democrats win that state by. That same election John Tester and Scott Brown won Montana and Ohio by comfortable single digit margins, but Obama still got blown out by Romney at the same time.
Reverse coattails simply don't exist, and they've never existed.
Everything you have posted is opinion; I disagree with your opinion; Larry Sabato disagrees with your opinion; you don't get to frame things as you like, then try to lecture anyone; I'll put my multiple college degrees in political science up against yours anytime; after the election, I plan on reading what Larry Sabato has discovered on this subject; Cheers🍻
Reverse coattails are ever-present and have always been. Plenty of voters are motivated to vote primarily by something other than the top line on the ballot. Reverse coattails present themselves not how you're conceiving of them, but in whether or not those voters bother to turn out. Sure, this can't be picked up by some cursory analysis, but with time and effort, it's easy to identify thousands of specific voters in a state who make the decision of whether or not to vote based on a downballot race being competitive or important or having an inspirational candidate.
This is how I tend to think about it as well. Every candidate has non voting friends / family / co-workers, etc. Some of those folks will be motivated to vote because they know someone running for office, and some subset of those individuals will vote for other offices as well. It’s not some thing where reverse coattails are going to swing the race except in very unusual circumstances, but they absolutely can help at the margins.
Democrat Josh Stein, who leads Robinson, the lieutenant governor, 53% to 36%, among likely voters in the North Carolina governor’s race.
I still contend that this will benefit the entire slate, top to bottom
Reverse coattails have never been a thing. Still, not having a real governor's race doesn't hurt.
That's your opinion; I don't particularly agree
In general, there is quite a bit of evidence against reverse coattails. However, Robinson is so far beyond the pale that it is possible that he may help Harris around the margins, which might be enough to secure her victory in NC.
PA last midterms would seem to say otherwise.
I think reverse coattails may be the incorrect term here.
Coattails: the yop of the ticket boosting the bottom (see, Obama, 2008).
Reverse coattails would be the bottom of the ticket boosting the top. Say, running candidates in all the races, etc.
I think the better term here may be "negative coattails" where the top is so bad it hurts everyone downticket.
I totally agree and have said that many times before on this board. This might be the one time in 100 where it might matter by just a fraction of a point. No matter what the polls say by Election Day I think Harris gets NC
Usually goes the other way. The polling shows a Democratic win in NC but then the Republican prevails. The best hope Dems have throughout the battlegrounds is that pollsters are weighting too heavily on obsolete 2016 and 2020 electorates just as pollsters weighted too heavily on Obama electorates during the Trump era. We saw signs of that in 2022 , in NC and elsewhere, and it's not unreasonable to think the same could happen again. I'm certainly getting too mentally invested in that narrative, but after 2022, it wouldn't surprise me.
Larry Sabato agrees with me(it's a debatable topic for sure); but this might be the one time exception to a general rule
Fun factoid: the last Republican to win the Presidency without North Carolina, Ike in 1956.
If this helps us I wouldn't expect it to happen via reverse coattails — the top of the ticket doing better because someone downballot is doing better.
Instead, if it helps us it's by damaging the republican brand across the state. Robinson is a statewide elected republican that enjoyed the party's support up until now, when he was already known to be extreme. Persuadable voters might find it easier to conclude that Trump is a toxic extremist when they're willing to conclude that Robinson is a toxic extremist. If the two most prominent republican candidates in the state are toxic extremists, it's not much of a leap to conclude that applies to the whole party.
Not saying that will or won't happen. If we do benefit across the state, I'd expect it'd be that way and not reverse coattails.
This is what some people mean by reverse coattails (I don’t think turnout will change but the brand is messy across the board)
I very much agree with your thought process. I do think that if she ultimately wins NC that parsing out whether it was because she tied Trump and Robinson together or because of reverse coattails in the way that we think about that term, both sides will claim that to be the case and it'll be essentially impossible to disprove either argument.
I think Larry Sabato is going to do an after action report on this after November 5(I very much look forward to his take)
I am really shocked how Robinson got elected as Lt. Governor in the first place if it means he and his campaign are imploding now.
Nevertheless, we should thank him for his service to the country by being in the NC-GOV race. /s
The Harris campaign and loads of political professionals appear to think the Republican Party in NC is going to take a bath because of the gubernatorial campaign.
I really hesitate to say that it's "never been a thing". One, it's too broad of a claim to make. Second... how could the causality be proven from one race to another?
More specifically, if it turns out that Stein wins NC-Gov solidly and Harris wins the state by the narrowest of margins, there could be so many things attributed to her winning. Stein's solid performance and Robinson's meltdown would almost certainly be one of them - among others.
In short, I don't think it's a falsifiable question.
We can look at examples of how the top of the ticket performed as expected, but the 2nd highest office in the ballot was a wild overperformance, and didn't translate to trickling up to the top of the ticket.
Most recently we had NH-Gov and VT-Gov, as well as ME-Sen in 2020.
In New Hampshire John Sununu (R) won by 32 points. Obviously that didn't translate upwards ,as Biden won it by 8, which was an improvement over Clinton's performance 4 years earlier.
Phil Scott (R) in Vermont won by 41(!). That's didn't stop Biden from winning the State by 35 points. That's a 76 point delta in Republican performance. No way that exists if reverse coat tails existed.
Susanne Collins (R) won by a comfortable 9 point margin, the same margin Biden carried the state in on the same ballot.
You can go back as far as you want and pick and 2nd highest office overperformer and how that simply doesn't help the highest office in that same election. Amy Klobuchar won by 35 in Minneaota, while Obama won by the customary ~8 point win average Democrats win that state by. That same election John Tester and Scott Brown won Montana and Ohio by comfortable single digit margins, but Obama still got blown out by Romney at the same time.
Reverse coattails simply don't exist, and they've never existed.
Again; your opinion; only an opinion; and to be clear, I never used the terminology 'reverse coattails'(just want to be clear about that)
I literally cited a bunch of recent examples. Those are not opinions, those are election reaults.
I would love to hear the data points you have that back up your claim to the contrary.
Everything you have posted is opinion; I disagree with your opinion; Larry Sabato disagrees with your opinion; you don't get to frame things as you like, then try to lecture anyone; I'll put my multiple college degrees in political science up against yours anytime; after the election, I plan on reading what Larry Sabato has discovered on this subject; Cheers🍻
Reverse coattails are ever-present and have always been. Plenty of voters are motivated to vote primarily by something other than the top line on the ballot. Reverse coattails present themselves not how you're conceiving of them, but in whether or not those voters bother to turn out. Sure, this can't be picked up by some cursory analysis, but with time and effort, it's easy to identify thousands of specific voters in a state who make the decision of whether or not to vote based on a downballot race being competitive or important or having an inspirational candidate.
This is how I tend to think about it as well. Every candidate has non voting friends / family / co-workers, etc. Some of those folks will be motivated to vote because they know someone running for office, and some subset of those individuals will vote for other offices as well. It’s not some thing where reverse coattails are going to swing the race except in very unusual circumstances, but they absolutely can help at the margins.
It's possible that their not existing is the general case, but that there are some exceptions.
You are correct; good post
no way KH loses NC if Stein is really ahead by 17 pts.