We can look at examples of how the top of the ticket performed as expected, but the 2nd highest office in the ballot was a wild overperformance, and didn't translate to trickling up to the top of the ticket.
Most recently we had NH-Gov and VT-Gov, as well as ME-Sen in 2020.
In New Hampshire John Sununu (R) won by 32 points. Obviously that …
We can look at examples of how the top of the ticket performed as expected, but the 2nd highest office in the ballot was a wild overperformance, and didn't translate to trickling up to the top of the ticket.
Most recently we had NH-Gov and VT-Gov, as well as ME-Sen in 2020.
In New Hampshire John Sununu (R) won by 32 points. Obviously that didn't translate upwards ,as Biden won it by 8, which was an improvement over Clinton's performance 4 years earlier.
Phil Scott (R) in Vermont won by 41(!). That's didn't stop Biden from winning the State by 35 points. That's a 76 point delta in Republican performance. No way that exists if reverse coat tails existed.
Susanne Collins (R) won by a comfortable 9 point margin, the same margin Biden carried the state in on the same ballot.
You can go back as far as you want and pick and 2nd highest office overperformer and how that simply doesn't help the highest office in that same election. Amy Klobuchar won by 35 in Minneaota, while Obama won by the customary ~8 point win average Democrats win that state by. That same election John Tester and Scott Brown won Montana and Ohio by comfortable single digit margins, but Obama still got blown out by Romney at the same time.
Reverse coattails simply don't exist, and they've never existed.
Everything you have posted is opinion; I disagree with your opinion; Larry Sabato disagrees with your opinion; you don't get to frame things as you like, then try to lecture anyone; I'll put my multiple college degrees in political science up against yours anytime; after the election, I plan on reading what Larry Sabato has discovered on this subject; Cheers🍻
Reverse coattails are ever-present and have always been. Plenty of voters are motivated to vote primarily by something other than the top line on the ballot. Reverse coattails present themselves not how you're conceiving of them, but in whether or not those voters bother to turn out. Sure, this can't be picked up by some cursory analysis, but with time and effort, it's easy to identify thousands of specific voters in a state who make the decision of whether or not to vote based on a downballot race being competitive or important or having an inspirational candidate.
This is how I tend to think about it as well. Every candidate has non voting friends / family / co-workers, etc. Some of those folks will be motivated to vote because they know someone running for office, and some subset of those individuals will vote for other offices as well. It’s not some thing where reverse coattails are going to swing the race except in very unusual circumstances, but they absolutely can help at the margins.
We can look at examples of how the top of the ticket performed as expected, but the 2nd highest office in the ballot was a wild overperformance, and didn't translate to trickling up to the top of the ticket.
Most recently we had NH-Gov and VT-Gov, as well as ME-Sen in 2020.
In New Hampshire John Sununu (R) won by 32 points. Obviously that didn't translate upwards ,as Biden won it by 8, which was an improvement over Clinton's performance 4 years earlier.
Phil Scott (R) in Vermont won by 41(!). That's didn't stop Biden from winning the State by 35 points. That's a 76 point delta in Republican performance. No way that exists if reverse coat tails existed.
Susanne Collins (R) won by a comfortable 9 point margin, the same margin Biden carried the state in on the same ballot.
You can go back as far as you want and pick and 2nd highest office overperformer and how that simply doesn't help the highest office in that same election. Amy Klobuchar won by 35 in Minneaota, while Obama won by the customary ~8 point win average Democrats win that state by. That same election John Tester and Scott Brown won Montana and Ohio by comfortable single digit margins, but Obama still got blown out by Romney at the same time.
Reverse coattails simply don't exist, and they've never existed.
Again; your opinion; only an opinion; and to be clear, I never used the terminology 'reverse coattails'(just want to be clear about that)
I literally cited a bunch of recent examples. Those are not opinions, those are election reaults.
I would love to hear the data points you have that back up your claim to the contrary.
Everything you have posted is opinion; I disagree with your opinion; Larry Sabato disagrees with your opinion; you don't get to frame things as you like, then try to lecture anyone; I'll put my multiple college degrees in political science up against yours anytime; after the election, I plan on reading what Larry Sabato has discovered on this subject; Cheers🍻
Reverse coattails are ever-present and have always been. Plenty of voters are motivated to vote primarily by something other than the top line on the ballot. Reverse coattails present themselves not how you're conceiving of them, but in whether or not those voters bother to turn out. Sure, this can't be picked up by some cursory analysis, but with time and effort, it's easy to identify thousands of specific voters in a state who make the decision of whether or not to vote based on a downballot race being competitive or important or having an inspirational candidate.
This is how I tend to think about it as well. Every candidate has non voting friends / family / co-workers, etc. Some of those folks will be motivated to vote because they know someone running for office, and some subset of those individuals will vote for other offices as well. It’s not some thing where reverse coattails are going to swing the race except in very unusual circumstances, but they absolutely can help at the margins.
It's possible that their not existing is the general case, but that there are some exceptions.