61-34 Trump in WV is actually an excellent result for Democrats, since Trump won it 69-30 in 2020.
At the very least, that would definitely be enough for Harris to win Monongalia County and thus break the streak of Republicans winning every county in WV for three elections in a row.
12 point shift to the left! Implies 16 point national win, 425-113 electoral college margin ;-). Joking of course, but people try to do this stuff whenever a poll comes out with Harris apparently shedding 10 points in CA or NY (always with a lot of undecideds...) Agreed, I do think Monongalia is easily flipping this year. I feel like Jefferson and then Kanawha are going to flip eventually, but doubtful this year.
There seems to be a longstanding pattern of polls in uncompetitive states consistently being too favorable to the weaker party. California statewide polls almost always overstate GOP support, for example. I suspect that this comes from people who just answer randomly.
As to be expected, the voters of Appalachia hating Democrats for supporting and implementing the same welfare programs many of them need to live off of on a daily basis.
Until WV becomes a more attractive state for new residents to move in, it's going to remain in red territory for years.
However, the main issue for Glenn Elliott in particular is name recognition. The WV Democratic Party needs to have a more robust GOTV and organizing system. Right now, from my understanding it doesn't appear to have this. Unless there's something I'm missing.
Yes but important to emphasize the findings of what has been reporting in the polling. It's got more to do with name recognition for Elliott than anything else, not just the fact that Jim Justice has an advantage in the race.
Elliott has in fact been running an all-55 county Senate race which is still going on. He has in fact gotten slow but progressive traction. The main issue though is WV residents knowing him as opposed to any favorability vs. unfavorability factors.
Elliott is running a truly underdog race and one that is actually commendable considering he needs to built name recognition statewide. I have in fact been covering this race on DK and do know from my own research that Elliott is campaigning his ass off. However, in the WV market which is primarily rural, getting name recognition without support from the DSCC and other notable organizations makes it a tough slog for Elliott.
With Elliott and Williams, the reaction wasn’t so polarized – it was that respondents statewide don’t feel like they know them well.
Elliott was regarded favorably by 27% of respondents and unfavorably by 17% — but 57% said they are not sure.
Williams was viewed favorably by 25% of respondents and unfavorably by 18% — but, again, 57% said they are not sure.
“If you look at both Glenn Elliott and Steve Williams, they both are unknown,” said Rex Repass, president of Research America, which produces The West Virginia Poll.
“It’s a difficult, steep hill when you’ve only got a short time between now and Nov. 5 to introduce yourself and run against a popular governor.”
Win or lose, I think Glenn Elliott has a bright future in WV Democratic Party politics. Depending on how much he's able to chip away at Jim Justice's lead in the polls and eventual margin of votes this November, he still has a shot at potentially running in other statewide races in 2026. Not sure if he wants to make another run for the Senate by challenging Senator Shelley Moore Capito but it may be easier for Elliott to be elected at the state level as opposed to the federal level (House or Senate).
West Virginia:
https://wvmetronews.com/2024/08/30/west-virginia-poll-solid-leads-for-morrisey-and-justice-in-upcoming-election/
61/34 Trump
62/28 Justice
49/35 Morrisey
No surprises
61-34 Trump in WV is actually an excellent result for Democrats, since Trump won it 69-30 in 2020.
At the very least, that would definitely be enough for Harris to win Monongalia County and thus break the streak of Republicans winning every county in WV for three elections in a row.
12 point shift to the left! Implies 16 point national win, 425-113 electoral college margin ;-). Joking of course, but people try to do this stuff whenever a poll comes out with Harris apparently shedding 10 points in CA or NY (always with a lot of undecideds...) Agreed, I do think Monongalia is easily flipping this year. I feel like Jefferson and then Kanawha are going to flip eventually, but doubtful this year.
There seems to be a longstanding pattern of polls in uncompetitive states consistently being too favorable to the weaker party. California statewide polls almost always overstate GOP support, for example. I suspect that this comes from people who just answer randomly.
True but every new poll shows a distinct shift; even from fox polling and Rasmussen(the one that has nothing to do with Scott Rasmussen)
All joking aside.. If that margin holds nationwide, Harris wins North Carolina.. Game..Set..Match
Monongalia County also has West Virginia University, which I believe is the most notable university in the state.
As to be expected, the voters of Appalachia hating Democrats for supporting and implementing the same welfare programs many of them need to live off of on a daily basis.
They'll accept Obama care..won't vote for it though
Until WV becomes a more attractive state for new residents to move in, it's going to remain in red territory for years.
However, the main issue for Glenn Elliott in particular is name recognition. The WV Democratic Party needs to have a more robust GOTV and organizing system. Right now, from my understanding it doesn't appear to have this. Unless there's something I'm missing.
Yes but important to emphasize the findings of what has been reporting in the polling. It's got more to do with name recognition for Elliott than anything else, not just the fact that Jim Justice has an advantage in the race.
Elliott has in fact been running an all-55 county Senate race which is still going on. He has in fact gotten slow but progressive traction. The main issue though is WV residents knowing him as opposed to any favorability vs. unfavorability factors.
Elliott is running a truly underdog race and one that is actually commendable considering he needs to built name recognition statewide. I have in fact been covering this race on DK and do know from my own research that Elliott is campaigning his ass off. However, in the WV market which is primarily rural, getting name recognition without support from the DSCC and other notable organizations makes it a tough slog for Elliott.
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With Elliott and Williams, the reaction wasn’t so polarized – it was that respondents statewide don’t feel like they know them well.
Elliott was regarded favorably by 27% of respondents and unfavorably by 17% — but 57% said they are not sure.
Williams was viewed favorably by 25% of respondents and unfavorably by 18% — but, again, 57% said they are not sure.
“If you look at both Glenn Elliott and Steve Williams, they both are unknown,” said Rex Repass, president of Research America, which produces The West Virginia Poll.
“It’s a difficult, steep hill when you’ve only got a short time between now and Nov. 5 to introduce yourself and run against a popular governor.”
I will say on a side note:
Win or lose, I think Glenn Elliott has a bright future in WV Democratic Party politics. Depending on how much he's able to chip away at Jim Justice's lead in the polls and eventual margin of votes this November, he still has a shot at potentially running in other statewide races in 2026. Not sure if he wants to make another run for the Senate by challenging Senator Shelley Moore Capito but it may be easier for Elliott to be elected at the state level as opposed to the federal level (House or Senate).