That would be more convincing if Tester had a track record of winning by more than the skin of his teeth, as opposed to Collins who managed to dominate even amidst the brutal headwinds of 2008.
That and the fact that Democratic voters are generally more willing to split ticket vote than Republican voters. Too many of us still believe in the mythical creature that is the "reasonable Republican."
I think Murkowski is the real deal. She continuously puts her career at risk to vote the way she wants to. Collins does the absolute bare minimum necessary to hold onto power in a blue state.
Judicially, I remain unconvinced. 177 of Biden's 203 Article III nominees that have come to the floor have gotten at least 1 GOP vote. Collins has backed 173 of them, Murkowski 151, and Graham 150 (next up is Tillis at 75). Collins has been the solo GOP vote for 3 of them, Graham for 2, and Murkowski for none.
Fair point, although they're a wash when it comes to the Supreme Court. Collins supported Kavanaugh and Murkowski supported Barrett while the other did not. Murkowski changed her No vote on Kavanaugh to Present as a courtesy to an absent GOP Senator, but I don't think this changed the outcome any.
IтАЩm not going to say IтАЩm expecting it, but thereтАЩs A LOT of things Democrats can promise Murkowski to entice her for projects/funding etc in Alaska. ItтАЩs a pretty small and rural state and billions is a drop in the bucket.
SheтАЩs also more likely to lose her next re-election campaign, even if Alaska voters keep RCV in place. She almost lost to an absolute nutjob. A credible, single, even uber conservative challenger with money backing will take her down.
Her best route to win next time, if she wants to run, is as an Independent without a Democrat running. The best way to achieve that is to caucus with тАЬthe party that can best help AlaskaтАЭ that I will reassess every presidential term. With a hopefully Democratic president, that choice is pretty clear.
If she doesnтАЩt want to run, that also is a point towards a higher likelihood of her saying exactly that while caucusing with Democrats for her last term.
Again, I donтАЩt expect it, but itтАЩs absolutely within the realm of plausibility after November, especially if Harris wins the presidency and Democrats flip the House.
Yes. Murkowski is the key swing GOP Senator that Democrats can count on with key issues, especially with abortion.
There are issues I disagree with her about but all things considered sheтАЩs the one true moderate Republican in the Senate we can count on.
Collins voting to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court showed no spine, especially considering Collins for a long time before that had a good pro-choice voting record.
SheтАЩs the only real centre-right Republican in Congress.
Before someone replies, Brian Fitzpatrick votes with the majority, whichever party that may be, which is politically smart. But that also means heтАЩs voted quite a bit more right in this term than the last one. So I donтАЩt count him as consistently centre-right, more of a go along to get another term person. He votes with Democrats when they hold the majority and Republicans when they hold the majority.
Well, I consider Adam Kinzinger to be an example of that mythical creature: "the Reasonable Republican". But then again, thatтАЩs probably why he had zero chance of re-election.
Looking at past returns in Montana, I was struck by how consistent Dem presidential performances returns have been there. In 6 of the last 10 elections, our candidate has fallen in the 4.1% band from 37.6% to 41.7% (underperformances from Gore and Hillary, overperformances from Obama '08 and Dukakis). By that measure, it makes it the fifth-most consistent state, with only MS (3.2%), PA (3.5%), IN (3.8%), and AL (4.0%) having a tighter band.
You have a link to the poll? What is up with polling either take one day like RMG or a month in the field like the ActiVote poll in Ohio? I know people here may not love dissecting the polls but we also have standards for accuracy.
Ok, just looked into this. It was done completely online between September 12-19. Mixed feelings about only online polling. By the way, the NYTs has a great piece out about the changing landscape in Montana. This part stood out because it doesn't seem like everyone loves the wealthy Republicans moving in and buying land. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/22/us/montana-senate-tester-sheehy.html
Still, not everyone is abandoning the Democrats, and particularly not Mr. Tester. Lyle Thomas, an 84-year-old rancher who describes himself as an independent, said he has long voted blue and has concerns about the honesty of Republican leaders, including former President Donald J. Trump and Mr. Sheehy, who has acknowledged lying about how he ended up with a bullet in his arm.
Mr. Thomas has been wary about the wealthy, mostly Republican newcomers who have flooded into the area in recent years, saying they have scooped up land and charged hefty fees for people to hunt.
тАЬItтАЩs changed our state so much тАФ and not for the better,тАЭ he said as he moved a truckload of cattle fencing posts. тАЬItтАЩs going to take a real severe winter to keep them all out of here for a while.тАЭ
Tami Healy, who lives at a senior center, said she disliked the current White House and was uncomfortable with abortion, but she has been alarmed by how far Republicans have gone to prohibit it when the issue deserves more nuance. She trusts Mr. Tester to understand how Montanans think about things.
7 days is considered too long to poll, isn't it? After your first paragraph, though, we get into anecdotes, and you know what they say about those vis-a-vis data.
MT Senate RMG: Sheehy 50 Tester 43. Looks like a one day poll.
If there's any candidate on our side who can pull a Susan Collins, it's Tester.
That would be more convincing if Tester had a track record of winning by more than the skin of his teeth, as opposed to Collins who managed to dominate even amidst the brutal headwinds of 2008.
That and the fact that Democratic voters are generally more willing to split ticket vote than Republican voters. Too many of us still believe in the mythical creature that is the "reasonable Republican."
I think Murkowski is the real deal. She continuously puts her career at risk to vote the way she wants to. Collins does the absolute bare minimum necessary to hold onto power in a blue state.
Judicially, I remain unconvinced. 177 of Biden's 203 Article III nominees that have come to the floor have gotten at least 1 GOP vote. Collins has backed 173 of them, Murkowski 151, and Graham 150 (next up is Tillis at 75). Collins has been the solo GOP vote for 3 of them, Graham for 2, and Murkowski for none.
Fair point, although they're a wash when it comes to the Supreme Court. Collins supported Kavanaugh and Murkowski supported Barrett while the other did not. Murkowski changed her No vote on Kavanaugh to Present as a courtesy to an absent GOP Senator, but I don't think this changed the outcome any.
I wonder what Murkowski's terms would be to be a Dem-caucusing independent, if her vote would get us to 50 (with Walz breaking ties).
I'm just not seeing it
IтАЩm not going to say IтАЩm expecting it, but thereтАЩs A LOT of things Democrats can promise Murkowski to entice her for projects/funding etc in Alaska. ItтАЩs a pretty small and rural state and billions is a drop in the bucket.
SheтАЩs also more likely to lose her next re-election campaign, even if Alaska voters keep RCV in place. She almost lost to an absolute nutjob. A credible, single, even uber conservative challenger with money backing will take her down.
Her best route to win next time, if she wants to run, is as an Independent without a Democrat running. The best way to achieve that is to caucus with тАЬthe party that can best help AlaskaтАЭ that I will reassess every presidential term. With a hopefully Democratic president, that choice is pretty clear.
If she doesnтАЩt want to run, that also is a point towards a higher likelihood of her saying exactly that while caucusing with Democrats for her last term.
Again, I donтАЩt expect it, but itтАЩs absolutely within the realm of plausibility after November, especially if Harris wins the presidency and Democrats flip the House.
Very interesting analysis!
Yes. Murkowski is the key swing GOP Senator that Democrats can count on with key issues, especially with abortion.
There are issues I disagree with her about but all things considered sheтАЩs the one true moderate Republican in the Senate we can count on.
Collins voting to confirm Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court showed no spine, especially considering Collins for a long time before that had a good pro-choice voting record.
SheтАЩs the only real centre-right Republican in Congress.
Before someone replies, Brian Fitzpatrick votes with the majority, whichever party that may be, which is politically smart. But that also means heтАЩs voted quite a bit more right in this term than the last one. So I donтАЩt count him as consistently centre-right, more of a go along to get another term person. He votes with Democrats when they hold the majority and Republicans when they hold the majority.
Well, I consider Adam Kinzinger to be an example of that mythical creature: "the Reasonable Republican". But then again, thatтАЩs probably why he had zero chance of re-election.
the IL legislature drew his district out and he couldnt win it as a Republican so he retired
As far as I remember, KinzingerтАЩs voting record was quite conservative.
Yes, he is very conservative. But he is a patriot тАУ not a Fascist. That makes him our ally.
Yes. Of course.
Liz Cheney too...
Even DIck Cheney тАУ never mind that he ought to stand trial at The Hague.
Harris is down in this poll 59-38, yea i get she's down big but hopefully high teens and not low 20's so to give Tester a fighting chance.
It would suck but wouldn't shock me too much if she lost MT by around 20.
I don't know why she'd do worse than Biden here, who lost by 16.
Looking at past returns in Montana, I was struck by how consistent Dem presidential performances returns have been there. In 6 of the last 10 elections, our candidate has fallen in the 4.1% band from 37.6% to 41.7% (underperformances from Gore and Hillary, overperformances from Obama '08 and Dukakis). By that measure, it makes it the fifth-most consistent state, with only MS (3.2%), PA (3.5%), IN (3.8%), and AL (4.0%) having a tighter band.
You have a link to the poll? What is up with polling either take one day like RMG or a month in the field like the ActiVote poll in Ohio? I know people here may not love dissecting the polls but we also have standards for accuracy.
Ok, just looked into this. It was done completely online between September 12-19. Mixed feelings about only online polling. By the way, the NYTs has a great piece out about the changing landscape in Montana. This part stood out because it doesn't seem like everyone loves the wealthy Republicans moving in and buying land. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/22/us/montana-senate-tester-sheehy.html
Still, not everyone is abandoning the Democrats, and particularly not Mr. Tester. Lyle Thomas, an 84-year-old rancher who describes himself as an independent, said he has long voted blue and has concerns about the honesty of Republican leaders, including former President Donald J. Trump and Mr. Sheehy, who has acknowledged lying about how he ended up with a bullet in his arm.
Mr. Thomas has been wary about the wealthy, mostly Republican newcomers who have flooded into the area in recent years, saying they have scooped up land and charged hefty fees for people to hunt.
тАЬItтАЩs changed our state so much тАФ and not for the better,тАЭ he said as he moved a truckload of cattle fencing posts. тАЬItтАЩs going to take a real severe winter to keep them all out of here for a while.тАЭ
Tami Healy, who lives at a senior center, said she disliked the current White House and was uncomfortable with abortion, but she has been alarmed by how far Republicans have gone to prohibit it when the issue deserves more nuance. She trusts Mr. Tester to understand how Montanans think about things.
7 days is considered too long to poll, isn't it? After your first paragraph, though, we get into anecdotes, and you know what they say about those vis-a-vis data.
Should what they say about that be taken only anecdotally?
/s
OK, point taken. :-)