Morning Digest: John James no longer leads as his absentee campaign enrages Republicans

Why the former frontrunner can't "ride a beach chair to victory"

Michigan Rep. John James (R), reportedly visiting the Turks & Caicos in April 2026 during a partial government shutdown (credit: Distill Social)

Leading Off

MI-Gov

A new independent poll finds that Rep. John James is no longer the frontrunner in the Republican primary for Michigan’s open governorship—and James’ response has only made things worse.

Emerson College’s survey for WOOD-TV shows wealthy businessman Perry Johnson edging out James 21-20 in the Aug. 4 primary, with former Attorney General Mike Cox at 10%. A large 39% plurality of respondents are undecided, while six low-polling candidates split the balance.

While James only narrowly trails Johnson, who has spent over $10 million on ads since he entered the race in January, Emerson’s poll is the first anyone has released that hasn’t put James in the lead.

The congressman quickly pushed back by sharing an internal poll on social media showing him defeating Johnson 37-19, with Cox again taking 10%. James wrote that these numbers from OnMessage “show what Michigan already knows. We’re winning 2 to 1 and the best is yet to come.”

His rivals, though, quickly noticed the survey was completed on March 19, and they weren’t shy about pointing it out.

“So desperate. Now releasing a poll that’s a month stale,” Cox tweeted. John Yob, Johnson’s chief consultant, piled on by sarcastically thanking James “for putting out a month old poll to confirm how much he has collapsed and we have gained in the last month.”

James’ survey was also conducted shortly before he drew the kind of attention that few candidates want.

“While Michigan families struggle, John James is living large in the Caribbean,” a Michigan-based outlet called Distill Social tweeted early this month as it shared what it said was a picture of the congressman on vacation in the Turks and Caicos Islands. “Hey @TMZ we got one for ya.”

The gossip giant, which was gleefully turning its cameras on members of Congress who were on vacation as the Department of Homeland Security remained shut down, was indeed interested, and it published a piece on James.

Columnist Nolan Finley soon wrote in the Detroit News that Distill’s photo of the congressman, who has missed more votes than any other member of Michigan’s 13-person House delegation, only made it easier for Johnson to portray him as a “disengaged politician.”

Finley also noted that James has continued to avoid debates and other events where he hasn’t been guaranteed a supportive crowd, arguing that the one-time polling leader was “mounting a defensive campaign, running not to lose rather than to win.” Thanks to Johnson’s well-funded operation, though, it’s no longer a viable strategy for James.

“James is an admitted homebody who cherishes time with his wife and kids. But he’s not going to ride a beach chair to victory,” Finley wrote. “He’s got to show up and show voters he really does want to be governor.”

Yet James has remained an absentee candidate. After he asked the Oakland County GOP to remove him from a flier advertising a debate set for April 30, unhappy party officials have talked about little else.

“It’s unfortunate that @JohnJamesMI won’t agree to participate in our gubernatorial debate later this month,” county chair Vance Patrick tweeted last week. “It was specifically scheduled to be after the [April 21] candidate filing deadline because his campaign made that a condition of any participation in debates.”

Hannah Osantowske, a James spokesperson, responded by writing that he’d participate in a debate “when the field is set.” She continued, “In 2022, after premature debates, multiple participants were removed from the ballot due to the fraudulent signatures they turned in.”

Osantowske avoided explicitly mentioning that one of these candidates was Johnson, whose campaign to take on Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer collapsed after he fell victim to a fraudulent petition signature scandal.

But Brian Szmytke, a senior adviser to the Oakland County GOP, wasn’t placated. In an interview with Michigan Public Radio, he expressed his displeasure with James both for refusing to attend the debate and for giving up Michigan’s 10th Congressional District, a competitive constituency in the Detroit suburbs.

“It’s honestly a slap in the face to the volunteers that got him elected, because our people put in a lot of blood, sweat, tears, and their money to get him elected,” Szmytke said. “Now he’s abandoning that seat, and he’s not even showing up to a debate to explain why.”

Szmytke’s comments echo those made last year by none other than Donald Trump, who told the congressman he was “not sure I’m happy about” James decision to try to succeed Whitmer, who is termed out, rather than defend the 10th.

Trump, who delivered his comments at a time when James appeared to be in a strong position to capture the GOP gubernatorial nod, has yet to take sides in what’s become an expensive and unpredictable primary.

There’s considerably less uncertainty about what will happen in the Democratic primary.

Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson has long been her party’s undisputed frontrunner against Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson and a few other little-known candidates, and Emerson’s new poll gave her more reason to feel good about her prospects in August. The school shows Benson taking 52% of the vote, with Swanson far behind at just 5%.

The eventual Democratic and Republican nominees will likely find themselves in a three-way race with former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan, a former Democrat who is running as an independent.

Duggan, though, has a difficult task ahead of him as he tries to get on the ballot. The ex-mayor has until July 16 to collect 12,000 valid voter signatures, along with at least 100 in half of the state’s 13 congressional districts—a task that has vexed many other candidates in the past, not least among them Perry Johnson.

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Good riddance to Eric Swalwell

Election Recaps

NJ-11

Progressive organizer Analilia Mejia easily beat Republican Joe Hathaway in Thursday’s special election to replace Gov. Mikie Sherrill, a fellow Democrat, in New Jersey’s 11th District.

Mejia holds a 60-40 lead, with the Associated Press estimating the 94% of the vote has been tallied. According to calculations from The Downballot, Kamala Harris carried this North Jersey constituency by a 53-45 margin in 2024, and Sherrill defeated her Republican opponent 57-42 last year, per the New Jersey Globe.

Redistricting Roundup

FL Redistricting

Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis has postponed a special session of the legislature to redraw Florida’s congressional districts by a week, with lawmakers still unable to pass a budget—and no draft maps in sight.

The redistricting session, which DeSantis had originally scheduled for Monday, now won’t begin until April 28. It’s an open question, though, whether legislators will find the time and the wherewithal to address the congressional map at all.

Last month, the legislature’s regularly scheduled annual session came to an end with the House and Senate bitterly divided over the state’s budget. Even though Republicans hold supermajorities in both chambers, that impasse is still unresolved.

One former GOP chair of the Senate’s Appropriations Committee recently suggested things might remain that way until July 1, which is when funding for the state government will run out. That’s precisely what happened last year, when DeSantis signed a new budget on the last possible day. Going beyond that deadline would result in a partial government shutdown.

In the meantime, the appetite for making changes to Florida’s map seems minimal for many Republicans. Several GOP members of the state’s congressional delegation have warned that major alterations could backfire on the party, which has seen its standing deteriorate badly among Latino voters in particular.

Some observers have speculated that DeSantis wanted to wait until after Virginia holds a vote on Tuesday that would allow the state to adopt a new Democratic-drawn map, though DeSantis himself rejected those claims earlier this week.

NBC reporter Matt Dixon also said Virginia’s redistricting efforts were only a “small part” of why DeSantis delayed the special session, concluding that “GOP circular firing squad” and a lack of “actual maps” were “a more significant factor.”

House

CA-06

House Speaker Mike Johnson transferred nearly $160,000 in campaign funds to California Rep. Kevin Kiley at the end of March—three weeks after Kiley dropped his affiliation with the Republican Party and announced he’d run for reelection as an independent.

As a result of his disaffiliation, Kiley was temporarily booted from his committee assignments last month, but he was reinstated on Thursday.

Throughout, Kiley has remained a member of the House GOP caucus, but he’s been cagey about whether he’d stick with the party should he win another term. Johnson’s move, however, offers a strong hint, as does the name of his joint fundraising committee: It’s called Grow the Majority.

Kiley faces a difficult campaign for the revamped 6th District after voters passed a new Democratic-drawn map last year, but he could potentially benefit from the fact that five Democrats are running, several of whom have raised credible sums. By contrast, only one candidate, Christian author Michael Stansfield, is on the ballot as a Republican.

Stansfield hasn’t reported raising any money yet, but his party label, combined with Kiley’s money and name recognition, could allow the two of them to advance through the top-two primary if the large Democratic field fractures the left-leaning vote.

NY-07

1199SEIU, one of the most influential unions in New York City politics, has endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso in the Democratic primary for New York’s open 7th Congressional District.

City & State’s Jeff Coltin describes the development as “a blow” to his top rival, Assemblymember Claire Valdez, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who “launched her campaign with a plan of uniting labor and the left“ and has the backing of Mayor Zohran Mamdani.

But, Coltin observes, Valdez has only earned one notable labor endorsement, from a local branch of the United Auto Workers, which she was previously a member of. Reynoso, on the other hand, previously won the backing of several other major unions, including the Hotel and Gaming Trades Council and 32BJ SEIU.

Poll Pile

• MI-Sen (D): Emerson College for WOOD-TV:

  • Abdul El-Sayed: 24, Mallory McMorrow: 24, Haley Stevens: 13, others 3% or less, undecided: 36.

  • Jan: McMorrow: 22, Stevens: 17, El-Sayed: 16.

• MI-Sen (R): Emerson:

  • Mike Rogers: 55, other candidates 2% or less.

• NC-Sen: High Point University/YouGov:

  • Roy Cooper (D): 50, Michael Whatley (R): 42.

• CA-Gov (top-two primary): Emerson for Inside California Politics:

  • Steve Hilton (R): 17, Chad Bianco (R): 14, Tom Steyer (D): 14, Xavier Becerra (D): 10, Katie Porter (D): 10, Matt Mahan (D): 5, other candidates 2% or less, undecided: 23.

  • March: Eric Swalwell (D): 17, Hilton (R): 13, Bianco (R): 11, Steyer (D): 11, Porter (D): 8, Mahan (D): 3, Antonio Villaraigosa (D): 3, Becerra (D): 3.

• TX-19 (R): Harper Polling for Tom Sell:

  • Tom Sell: 58, Abraham Enriquez: 17.

Due to an editing error, our item in the last Morning Digest on Utah’s 1st Congressional District failed to properly identify the target of comments by state Sen. Kathleen Riebe. She referred to state Sen. Nate Blouin as “too inflammatory.”