I tend to think Benson will win in the end regardless of whoever Republicans nominate, but Perry Johnson winning that primary makes it so much easier to run up the score imo.
I'd expect Duggan's support among Dems to collapse as the election approaches and people see he can't win. He'll still probably get 5-10% of the vote, but it will be mostly protest votes from indies and Rs fed up with Trump.
100% this, like WTF is wrong with our discourse, an AOC type just won Tony Soprano’s wealthy NJ suburban district by a large margin and we can’t just take the win?
Casey had no business losing that race. I think he was so used to winning relatively easily that he did not gear up enough for a tough race and to fend off the attacks on him. I think his brand was still good. If he were running this year he’d win by at least 10 points.
lol, when I first moved to cd-11 in 2022, my brother came to visit and the first thing he wanted to see was the soprano house. cannot imagine how many people drive down that cul-de-sac just to stare at that house daily
When I went to NYC in 2019 I remember an ad for a “Sopranos Tour” where it starts by recreating the drive from the opening credits. No word on whether said drive just has “Woke up this Morning” blasting on repeat but I hope it did lol
For some, they want to drive a narrative that left candidates are always bad to encourage status quo/corporate Dems.
Truth and honesty and facts have nothing to do with it.
Generally speaking, I don't think Dems lose much moving tonthe left. Up tona point. The GOP certainly moved right with little electoral damage....up to a point.
And in this environment, you can move left and still gain ground.
It's insane. It's the inverse of what happened in 2016 how we traded two blue collar voters in the Midwest for one college-educated white suburbanite in Orange County. It'd be nice if we can maintain and grow our coalition without losing any blocs, but that's not how electoral politics has historically worked.
Maybe, but even other Dems have seen pretty big shifts away from them in heavily Jewish areas in the past couple years. Sherrill last year is an example of this despite her otherwise big win. I think the trendline is pretty clear at this point.
It's something we don't want to happen, but it kind of is what it is at a certain point given all that's going on. Some Democrats will do much better at mitigating the losses than others, like Mejia. She'll probably recover some ground herself when people realize the antisemitic fearmongering tactics about her aren't true.
To be clear, definitely not "giving up" on Jewish voters by any means. Moreso prioritizing overall party messaging elsewhere with bigger blocs of voters, and voters located in swing states and districts. Now that Florida is no longer a swing state, the political reality is that it's not really worth it to focus disproportionately on the group at the expense of working class, hispanic, or black voters, all of which are generally going to be much more critical in most swingy places.
Ossoff is kind of a good example of this. He's pissed off a lot of the Jewish community in the state with some of his votes, but seems to have made the determination that it's not really an electoral problem since they are less than 2% of the Georgia population. And Ossoff is Jewish!
I was unaware that many Jews were angry at him. I take it, that's because his positions on Israel are those of J Street? You can confirm or deny, but anything more detailed than that is not up for discussion on this site.
There are many Jewish voters who are not under AIPAC/Bibi's sway. Lies about anti-semitism will fool some.
But if this is a pill we have to swallow to do the right thing on the forbidden topic, then so be it.
Especially this year. There may be some races where it matters more than others, of course.
I mean, winning on enthusiasm + matching the electorate is good enough for me. In this environment that is a +12-14 point swing from MVP. Which I think is the better comp as two female POCs.
i usually defer to paleo for nj discourse, but as a resident of that district up until literally last December, it cannot be anything but a good sign that mejia put up better than sherill numbers vis a vi 24 election, and equivalent to sherill 25 numbers while running massively to her left in one of the richest districts in the state
Underperformed by winning by 20% points in a D+5 Leam Blue District?
I’d say these users (outside of the Downballot) should take a couple of weeks of vacation in rural Italy with no technology so they can get their minds cleared.
Again, the margin only shows the enthusiasm of Democratic voters, which isn't nothing, but doesn't matter as much in November compared to special elections. There is no way to spin a 50/50 independent split as anything but less-than-impressive in a very blue enviornment.
It was probably neither. Low information voters voted against the Republican. And she is left wing, but not in a way that pisses most people off. I'd imagine that if she sticks to the AOC model and works her district, her ideology won't hurt or help. Most voters aren't as ideological as you might assume
I assume that voters turned out not because of her, but because Democrats have consistently turned out at much higher rates. I can't "prove" that a different candidate would have done better, but I can make a good prediction.
As for the "spinning", I was speaking more generally abut the narrative I've seen, both on here and off here (including the tweet). And please, let's not go into personal insult territory.
Agreed and also, will probably be closer to +21 once late mail and provisionals get added. Mejia is on track to outperform not just Harris but also Biden, Sherrill for Congress, and Sherrill for Governor. "But the party registration of the electorate was a lot bluer than normal." And? It's a bad thing that Mejia was able to get a favorable electorate to turn out?
Weird discourse. Sure Malinowski would have probably won by 25, but also, we're not nominating candidates like Mejia in all the swing states and districts! Really struggling to see how there's any good news for Republicans here.
I don’t know if Malinowski would have won by that much. Any losses he might not have had in towns like Livingston would have been offset by a lower turnout because of less enthusiasm.
I'd bet it would be almost exactly the same. In a different environment, my opinion would change. But right now, negative partisanship seems to explain almost every federal race in the last 6 months. Trump disapproval and democratic performance have been pretty tight together this cycle
Not only that, but if someone who voted to convict and remove Trump got through a primary, the GOP would probably feel way more empowered to break from him. I still think he's more likely to take 3rd in the primary than win it, but I would LOVE to see him win.
They are not ready to admit it psychologically and in other ways, but lots of MAGA is now starting to look past, and some are starting to move past the President. Trump is slowly slipping into lame duck territory, and that's before this fall's pending shellacking. Trump's "Complete and Total Endorsement" is losing its power, slowly but surely.
I saw one article about the recent wisconsin ssc election in which it quoted some donor who said ''Why should we donate if all we do is going to be keep the minority''.
We've got a couple polls now showing that a Trump endorsement would only move things towards Cornyn by a few points, and that matches my read of the race. A Trump endorsement of Paxton on the other hand would effectively end it. Follows the pattern of Trump being able to easily torpedo candidates for being insufficiently MAGA, but struggling to get his supporters to give up on candidates who are obviously more MAGA than their opponent.
There was that one poll generated by Cornyn's team that claimed a Trump endorsement would take the race from tied to Cornyn +30, gee I wonder if they'd have any incentive to show such an absurd impact from Trump's endorsement! Trump more than anything wants to pick the winner and end the race, but what he's really worried about is picking the loser. So, he dithers.
VT-Gov: Could teenage independent Dean Roy be a reasonable alternative to Republican Gov. Phil Scott and Democrats? He clearly seems too inexperienced to be a state executive, but I like his style for a possible future run.
it's largely gone unnoticed but vermont's democratic majorities in the state legislature are eroding. not saying it will ever be a red state but state party needs to make most out of 26 and reestablish supermajorities so they can override scott's vetoes again
There's a couple of these kids every year in Vermont and Kansas because of their weird loopholes. They never get more than a handful of votes in any primary.
This pertains to embassy comms in conflict specifically but to me encapsulates the issues the GOP has: absolutely nothing that even whiffs of criticism of or independence from The Boss can be brooked, even if it’s meant to help, because he’s always right and everyone else is thus always wrong. The only place this is not always the case is the social media space where there’s personalities with their own brands.
Gilchrist seems like a genuinely good guy and a great public servant. He seems to want to really do the work. Michigan seems to have an embarrassment of riches in down ticket races right now
Where are they now? - Former Florida Rep. Allen West (and Texas Republican Party chair) has now been forced out of his leadership position at the Dallas GOP.
No idea of the legitimacy of this poll (it appears to be a Cori Bush internal) but this poll just dropped. Quoting the Twitter post:
"⚡️📊 New Poll Shows Cori Bush Tied With Incumbent Wesley Bell in Missouri Primary
🔹A poll commissioned by Cori Bush’s campaign and conducted by HIT Strategies shows Bush and incumbent Congressman Wesley Bell statistically tied among likely Democratic primary voters in Missouri’s 1st congressional district, with Bell at 44% and Bush at 40%, within the survey’s 5.4% margin of error.
🔹The poll, conducted February 19-23 among 401 likely Democratic primary voters, also found Bush holds higher overall favorability than Bell — 52% favorable to Bell’s 45%.
🔹The poll also tested favorability of AIPAC, a major backer of Bell’s 2024 campaign, and ICE — finding 40% and 86% unfavorable ratings respectively among district Democrats."
From @DropSiteNews.
If this poll is even somewhat legit, this race could get interesting.
I agree in substance but disagree that objections to AIPAC are "demagoguery." Democrats have strong reasons to oppose an organization that has been supporting a lot of Republican conspiracy-mongers (but I repeat myself) and trying to move the Democratic Party to the right. None of that is about Israel, but it's definitely about Netanyahu, who has also tried to directly interfere in American elections and domestic politics.
Bush didn't lose because Bell is popular. She lost (along with Tish) because that wing of the St Louis party has largely discredited itself. She was a loudmouth, but her constituent services were trash.
There are definitely progressives in St. Louis who can win. But Bush ain't it.
When I lived in St. Louis (2023-2025), all I heard from folks is that her office was unresponsive unless you knew folks in her circle. STL politics are very parochial.
For example, she may have voted like a socialist, and used that rhetoric. But unless you were tight with certain Alderman or precinct folks, good luck with her office helping with daycare assistance or food assistance (a HUGE issue in the City of STL and north STL county)
David Ortiz, a staff attorney at Make The Road NY and the DSA challenger to Assemb. Jenifer Rajkumar, is suing to knock Rajkumar off the ballot over allegations of petition fraud. Quoting City and State NY:
"David Orkin, the immigrant rights’ attorney challenging Assembly Member Jenifer Rajkumar with the support of the New York City Democratic Socialists of America, is accusing Rajkumar’s campaign of election fraud and filed a lawsuit in state court on Thursday seeking to have her thrown off the ballot. In turn, Rajkumar has promoted allegations of fraud against Orkin."
...
"When volunteers on Orkin’s campaign began reviewing Rajkumar’s petitions, they discovered something strange – one of the people listed as signing Rajkumar’s petitions was none other than Cary Tilton, a prominent DSA member and one of Orkin’s own campaign volunteers.
“You can imagine my shock and anger when I saw my own name on a Rajkumar petition sheet with a fraudulent signature,” Tilton told City & State in a statement, noting that he’d actually gathered signatures for Orkin. “Signing this petition would fly in the face of every action and decision I’ve made in years and is an impossibility.”
After that, dozens of DSA volunteers began combing through Rajkumar’s petitions and claim they found still more irregularities. On Thursday, Orkin and one of his supporters sued Rajkumar in Queens Supreme Court. They are asking the court to kick her off the ballot on the grounds that her petitions are full of forged signatures."
...
"In a statement, Rajkumar campaign spokesperson Arvind Sooknanan questioned the validity of Orkin’s own signatures, citing a press release from the group Latinos Against Socialism. (No specific objections were ever filed to Orkin’s petition signatures at the New York City Board of Elections or in state court, however.)"
Assuming this is true, this is not a good look for Rajkumar. I'm already not a fan of hers so I'm on team Ortiz here. (Also a great sign when your source is a group called "Latinos Against Socialism".)
This is the fun and games of the New York system after the filing deadline. When you have volunteers and paid canvassers you never know what you'll get. Lawyers, staff, and volunteers are scouring each other's signatures to clear the field.
People also sign multiple petition without realizing it. And that of course is an area where people challenge. Sometimes they sign the wrong one for the wrong candidate by mistake. A few years ago a candidate stood outside a club meeting in Brooklyn and got members of a club backing his opponent to inadvertently sign for him. It actually has a hilarious and sad conclusion. Both sides challenged each others judicial delegates and both sides won. So there were no judicial delegates elected from that assembly district. That candidate ran for another District Leader spot somewhere else (in the Houseboat district... Google it!) but knocked out his rivals.
One obscure rule is if you sign a petition for one candidate you can't carry for another. So if that volunteer did carry petitions for Orkin all of their petitions could be knocked out unless they as they are doing claim something like fraud or forgery. That is a charge that one can only make in court. DOE does not rule on it.
The entire system is one created by Tammany Hall meant to make the system overly complicated and expensive. Which is exactly incumbents of all parties and all ideologies keep them. And is why New York is one of the most expensive states to run in.
bit of a long shot question, but I just finished interviewing a candidate in MT-01, who said he had public polling... I'm not seeing it online, has anyone else seen it? and thoughts about that race?
With pretty much all the votes counted, Mejia's margin (+20) seems to have matched the electorate (D+20), which is to say independent/third party voters broke about 50/50 towards her and Hathaway. The margin is a strong showing in terms of enthusiasm, but does not reflect Mejia's strength as a candidate. This wasn't just because of a poor performance with Jewish voters, she didn't outrun the electorate in a single town in Essex County, including some extremely-not-Jewish places. A win in a win, but she is not the person I want to see defending the seat in a Democratic president midterm, though unfortunately her primary challengers are all bad (Donald Cresitello is awful, Justin Strickland is pro-term limits and similarly too progressive for the district, and Joseph Lewis is a nobody whose campaign website lists no specific policies and only has vague moderate platitudes).
You never see Republicans freak out when their special election victors win by less than normal, like Matt Van Epps. It’s odd. Sure, someone more moderate probably would have won by more. Why should I care when this district is not in danger of flipping?
I doubt any mid-decade redistricting will happen, though I can definitely see her getting drawn in Pou's district in 2032, provided Pou isn't planning to run again.
Why would she get drawn into Pou's district? Isn't that a redder seat that voted for Trump? Or are you predicting that she gets moved into another district to make way for a more moderate candidate
Pou's district is likely to snap back into being bluer than NJ-11, and moving Mejia wouldn't be solely to "make way for a more moderate candidate", but because a fiscally very progressive representative is a better fit for a more urban, working class district.
She got 60% (which may rise to 61% or so) and you want to replace her? She won the district by a bigger margin than Sherrill ever did and you want to replace her?
Obviously we can't just be 50/50 with independents if we want a big november. Yea pretty good turnout but obviously candidate quality does matter for those who think we can run socialists in every district.
"Democrats Eye Deep-Red Turf As Trump's Popularity Tumbles"
"A major Democratic group announced Friday it plans to target 17 House Republicans representing solidly red districts, a sign of how Democratic confidence is growing ahead of November’s midterm elections as President Donald Trump’s popularity slumps.
American Bridge, a super PAC focused on generating opposition research, is launching the “Shaky Eights” program — so named because all of the candidates they’re targeting represent seats with a score of at least R+8 in the Cook Partisan Voter Index, a measure of a district’s partisanship. Among their targets are the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee and a congressman who is set to appear with President Donald Trump in Arizona on Friday.
“As we’ve watched this cycle trend — with the administration’s decisions, the data we’re getting in on economic sentiment, on health care, on all these issues — we basically decided to change our strategy a little bit,” Pat Dennis, the president of American Bridge 21st Century, told HuffPost in an interview. “Basically, our theory of the case is that there are a lot of House seats right now that are not getting enough attention, because they’re considered safe for Republicans. We are putting our chips on the table and saying this is where the frontier of the fight is.”"
I think they're smart to do this. We've seen Dem candidates who were underfunded either win the seat or make the seat competitive because GOP voter turnout craters and/or the voters are frustrated with the incumbents.
Will it work for every candidate American Bridge is doing oppo research on? No. But they might dislodge one or two candidates uniquely vulnerable in the D-leaning midterms.
Even if they do not win every seat (I see them winning some seats) anytime they can make republicans spend money and waste resources in places republicans do not/did not think they would have to spend money in and away from other places is a W in my book.
With the caveat that e-day anecdotes can't always be trusted, if we do lose the VA vote today, it's because Dems fumbled the messaging (and are bringing down Spanberger in the process). The state is obv Democratic, but it's filled with "good government" Dems (i.e. folks that work in the federal government and like to see it work how it was supposed to). They care what ed boards think. They seem themselves as fair-minded, not like the extremist GOP. 'Yes' is clearly going to lose a not-insignificant nubmer of strong Spanberger voters.
Louise Lucas' taunting tweets epitomize where the effort went wrong -- it wasn't about pushing back against Trump, it was about sticking it to Republicans broadly and giving Dems all the power they want. Not a good message for NOVA. I still think it passes, but if it happens to lose, she and others will have major egg on their faces.
I tend to think Benson will win in the end regardless of whoever Republicans nominate, but Perry Johnson winning that primary makes it so much easier to run up the score imo.
Gee, I wonder what it is about James that has him struggling with so many GOP voters?
What could it be?
I wonder when they start calling him a lazy campaigner and he responds that that is a dog whistle…will that get him GOP sympathy or worse results?
I'd expect Duggan's support among Dems to collapse as the election approaches and people see he can't win. He'll still probably get 5-10% of the vote, but it will be mostly protest votes from indies and Rs fed up with Trump.
I really hope you are right. I also don't know what got into him. He was a pretty good mayor from what I can remember
He might have good statewide appeal.
And with John James potentially not advancing to the general election, I question the eventual GOP nominee’s appeal at this point.
100% this, like WTF is wrong with our discourse, an AOC type just won Tony Soprano’s wealthy NJ suburban district by a large margin and we can’t just take the win?
What happened with Bob Casey? From which direction was he ideologically opposed? Must’ve missed that.
Casey had no business losing that race. I think he was so used to winning relatively easily that he did not gear up enough for a tough race and to fend off the attacks on him. I think his brand was still good. If he were running this year he’d win by at least 10 points.
i thought the issue with bob was he never campaigned in earnest until it was too late, and harris wasn't strong in NEPA
lol, when I first moved to cd-11 in 2022, my brother came to visit and the first thing he wanted to see was the soprano house. cannot imagine how many people drive down that cul-de-sac just to stare at that house daily
When I went to NYC in 2019 I remember an ad for a “Sopranos Tour” where it starts by recreating the drive from the opening credits. No word on whether said drive just has “Woke up this Morning” blasting on repeat but I hope it did lol
Is some beleaguered ordinary family living in that house?
beleaguered? no, it's a wealthy neighborhood. but regular people yes
Beleaguered from the constant traffic, I meant.
For some, they want to drive a narrative that left candidates are always bad to encourage status quo/corporate Dems.
Truth and honesty and facts have nothing to do with it.
Generally speaking, I don't think Dems lose much moving tonthe left. Up tona point. The GOP certainly moved right with little electoral damage....up to a point.
And in this environment, you can move left and still gain ground.
Amen. I was very confused by some of the comments last night.
It's insane. It's the inverse of what happened in 2016 how we traded two blue collar voters in the Midwest for one college-educated white suburbanite in Orange County. It'd be nice if we can maintain and grow our coalition without losing any blocs, but that's not how electoral politics has historically worked.
Maybe, but even other Dems have seen pretty big shifts away from them in heavily Jewish areas in the past couple years. Sherrill last year is an example of this despite her otherwise big win. I think the trendline is pretty clear at this point.
It's something we don't want to happen, but it kind of is what it is at a certain point given all that's going on. Some Democrats will do much better at mitigating the losses than others, like Mejia. She'll probably recover some ground herself when people realize the antisemitic fearmongering tactics about her aren't true.
To be clear, definitely not "giving up" on Jewish voters by any means. Moreso prioritizing overall party messaging elsewhere with bigger blocs of voters, and voters located in swing states and districts. Now that Florida is no longer a swing state, the political reality is that it's not really worth it to focus disproportionately on the group at the expense of working class, hispanic, or black voters, all of which are generally going to be much more critical in most swingy places.
Ossoff is kind of a good example of this. He's pissed off a lot of the Jewish community in the state with some of his votes, but seems to have made the determination that it's not really an electoral problem since they are less than 2% of the Georgia population. And Ossoff is Jewish!
Big picture, she was +12 from Harris.
I don't get the hand wringing..
Losing some RW Jewish vote is just fine with me. And most of their anti-semitism fear mongering is BS. It is anti-Bibi/Likud.
I was unaware that many Jews were angry at him. I take it, that's because his positions on Israel are those of J Street? You can confirm or deny, but anything more detailed than that is not up for discussion on this site.
There are many Jewish voters who are not under AIPAC/Bibi's sway. Lies about anti-semitism will fool some.
But if this is a pill we have to swallow to do the right thing on the forbidden topic, then so be it.
Especially this year. There may be some races where it matters more than others, of course.
I mean, winning on enthusiasm + matching the electorate is good enough for me. In this environment that is a +12-14 point swing from MVP. Which I think is the better comp as two female POCs.
Are you talking mainly about Orthodox Jews, or also secular and Reform Jews?
i usually defer to paleo for nj discourse, but as a resident of that district up until literally last December, it cannot be anything but a good sign that mejia put up better than sherill numbers vis a vi 24 election, and equivalent to sherill 25 numbers while running massively to her left in one of the richest districts in the state
After she won the primary I was concerned about her winning the general. She wins by 20, and some people say she underperformed. Crazy.
Underperformed by winning by 20% points in a D+5 Leam Blue District?
I’d say these users (outside of the Downballot) should take a couple of weeks of vacation in rural Italy with no technology so they can get their minds cleared.
Again, the margin only shows the enthusiasm of Democratic voters, which isn't nothing, but doesn't matter as much in November compared to special elections. There is no way to spin a 50/50 independent split as anything but less-than-impressive in a very blue enviornment.
It was probably neither. Low information voters voted against the Republican. And she is left wing, but not in a way that pisses most people off. I'd imagine that if she sticks to the AOC model and works her district, her ideology won't hurt or help. Most voters aren't as ideological as you might assume
I assume that voters turned out not because of her, but because Democrats have consistently turned out at much higher rates. I can't "prove" that a different candidate would have done better, but I can make a good prediction.
As for the "spinning", I was speaking more generally abut the narrative I've seen, both on here and off here (including the tweet). And please, let's not go into personal insult territory.
Agreed and also, will probably be closer to +21 once late mail and provisionals get added. Mejia is on track to outperform not just Harris but also Biden, Sherrill for Congress, and Sherrill for Governor. "But the party registration of the electorate was a lot bluer than normal." And? It's a bad thing that Mejia was able to get a favorable electorate to turn out?
Weird discourse. Sure Malinowski would have probably won by 25, but also, we're not nominating candidates like Mejia in all the swing states and districts! Really struggling to see how there's any good news for Republicans here.
I don’t know if Malinowski would have won by that much. Any losses he might not have had in towns like Livingston would have been offset by a lower turnout because of less enthusiasm.
Also, might the small scandal he was involved in have itself depressed turnout and caused some opposition?
I'd bet it would be almost exactly the same. In a different environment, my opinion would change. But right now, negative partisanship seems to explain almost every federal race in the last 6 months. Trump disapproval and democratic performance have been pretty tight together this cycle
Fox News Host Drops Stunning Take on Election Bloodbath: ‘By Winning Democrats Are Actually Losing’
https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/fox-news-host-drops-stunning-take-on-election-bloodbath-by-winning-democrats-are-actually-losing/
Scott Jennings Mocked By CNN Panel After Declaring A Bad Night For Democrats | Crooks and Liars
https://crooksandliars.com/2025/11/scott-jennings-laughed-cnn-panel-after
'Idiotic to overreact!' JD Vance blames Biden admin for GOP's election blowout - Raw Story
https://www.rawstory.com/jd-vance-2674267963/
I guess they are allowed to think whatever they want. But that is a crazy stupid take by Republicans. It sounds pretty desperate
he would be the best option out of those other nuts
Not only that, but if someone who voted to convict and remove Trump got through a primary, the GOP would probably feel way more empowered to break from him. I still think he's more likely to take 3rd in the primary than win it, but I would LOVE to see him win.
Yeah that would be a massive thing to see. If the endorsement loses even an iota of its power then Trump is completely hosed
Especially in a state as red as Louisiana. It’d be one thing if it were a swing state, it’d be another entirely in a deep red state.
They are not ready to admit it psychologically and in other ways, but lots of MAGA is now starting to look past, and some are starting to move past the President. Trump is slowly slipping into lame duck territory, and that's before this fall's pending shellacking. Trump's "Complete and Total Endorsement" is losing its power, slowly but surely.
Hahahaha
Too early to feel confident but if this happens that would be hilarious
Music to my ears. Too bad the writer didn't come to NC and talk to the regretful Trump voters here.
Not a surprise.
I saw one article about the recent wisconsin ssc election in which it quoted some donor who said ''Why should we donate if all we do is going to be keep the minority''.
We've got a couple polls now showing that a Trump endorsement would only move things towards Cornyn by a few points, and that matches my read of the race. A Trump endorsement of Paxton on the other hand would effectively end it. Follows the pattern of Trump being able to easily torpedo candidates for being insufficiently MAGA, but struggling to get his supporters to give up on candidates who are obviously more MAGA than their opponent.
There was that one poll generated by Cornyn's team that claimed a Trump endorsement would take the race from tied to Cornyn +30, gee I wonder if they'd have any incentive to show such an absurd impact from Trump's endorsement! Trump more than anything wants to pick the winner and end the race, but what he's really worried about is picking the loser. So, he dithers.
https://www.thetimes.com/us/american-politics/article/dean-roy-governor-vermont-child-2qjf6xjxq
VT-Gov: Could teenage independent Dean Roy be a reasonable alternative to Republican Gov. Phil Scott and Democrats? He clearly seems too inexperienced to be a state executive, but I like his style for a possible future run.
it's largely gone unnoticed but vermont's democratic majorities in the state legislature are eroding. not saying it will ever be a red state but state party needs to make most out of 26 and reestablish supermajorities so they can override scott's vetoes again
Also need to topple John Rodgers in the LG race so that Scott has no natural Republican successor.
He's way too young.
There's a couple of these kids every year in Vermont and Kansas because of their weird loopholes. They never get more than a handful of votes in any primary.
This pertains to embassy comms in conflict specifically but to me encapsulates the issues the GOP has: absolutely nothing that even whiffs of criticism of or independence from The Boss can be brooked, even if it’s meant to help, because he’s always right and everyone else is thus always wrong. The only place this is not always the case is the social media space where there’s personalities with their own brands.
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/04/17/embassy-cables-detail-how-iran-war-is-hurting-the-us-abroad-00877205
What does this have to do with downballot elections?
Man, how funny would it be if Republicans lost the Michigan gubernatorial race despite the Duggan spoiler because they nominate Perry Johnson?
Apparently the Michigan Democratic convention is this weekend where AG and SOS nominees will be chosen. Who are we rooting for?
Yeah I liked Edevbie too, was sad when he dropped out. It would be nice to have a black statewide official so I soft prefer Gilchrist.
Gilchrist seems like a genuinely good guy and a great public servant. He seems to want to really do the work. Michigan seems to have an embarrassment of riches in down ticket races right now
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/politics/inside-politics/dallas-gop-chair-allen-west-resigns/287-7e7b8c34-a00a-43a0-9ce7-22e56eb87708
Where are they now? - Former Florida Rep. Allen West (and Texas Republican Party chair) has now been forced out of his leadership position at the Dallas GOP.
What was Allen West expecting by moving to TX? Thinking he could soar in his political career?
MO-01:
https://x.com/DropSiteNews/status/2044157672514011561
No idea of the legitimacy of this poll (it appears to be a Cori Bush internal) but this poll just dropped. Quoting the Twitter post:
"⚡️📊 New Poll Shows Cori Bush Tied With Incumbent Wesley Bell in Missouri Primary
🔹A poll commissioned by Cori Bush’s campaign and conducted by HIT Strategies shows Bush and incumbent Congressman Wesley Bell statistically tied among likely Democratic primary voters in Missouri’s 1st congressional district, with Bell at 44% and Bush at 40%, within the survey’s 5.4% margin of error.
🔹The poll, conducted February 19-23 among 401 likely Democratic primary voters, also found Bush holds higher overall favorability than Bell — 52% favorable to Bell’s 45%.
🔹The poll also tested favorability of AIPAC, a major backer of Bell’s 2024 campaign, and ICE — finding 40% and 86% unfavorable ratings respectively among district Democrats."
From @DropSiteNews.
If this poll is even somewhat legit, this race could get interesting.
I believe the disapproval rating is district-specific, as in, MO-01's view of AIPAC. AIPAC's disapproval might be different in a different district.
That said, this indeed is not a great sign for Bush.
I think you could find a solid progressive challenger to Bell in MO-1.
I do not think that person is Cori Bush
Agreed.
The poll was in the field back in mid-February.
I agree in substance but disagree that objections to AIPAC are "demagoguery." Democrats have strong reasons to oppose an organization that has been supporting a lot of Republican conspiracy-mongers (but I repeat myself) and trying to move the Democratic Party to the right. None of that is about Israel, but it's definitely about Netanyahu, who has also tried to directly interfere in American elections and domestic politics.
Ugh at "statistically tied" that is not how statistics works!
Bush didn't lose because Bell is popular. She lost (along with Tish) because that wing of the St Louis party has largely discredited itself. She was a loudmouth, but her constituent services were trash.
There are definitely progressives in St. Louis who can win. But Bush ain't it.
I didn't know her constituent services were bad. Why would an ostensible socialist not prioritize working for the people?
When I lived in St. Louis (2023-2025), all I heard from folks is that her office was unresponsive unless you knew folks in her circle. STL politics are very parochial.
For example, she may have voted like a socialist, and used that rhetoric. But unless you were tight with certain Alderman or precinct folks, good luck with her office helping with daycare assistance or food assistance (a HUGE issue in the City of STL and north STL county)
That's really awful!
NY-AD-38:
https://www.cityandstateny.com/politics/2026/04/rajkumar-challenger-sues-kick-her-ballot-alleging-petition-fraud/412926/
David Ortiz, a staff attorney at Make The Road NY and the DSA challenger to Assemb. Jenifer Rajkumar, is suing to knock Rajkumar off the ballot over allegations of petition fraud. Quoting City and State NY:
"David Orkin, the immigrant rights’ attorney challenging Assembly Member Jenifer Rajkumar with the support of the New York City Democratic Socialists of America, is accusing Rajkumar’s campaign of election fraud and filed a lawsuit in state court on Thursday seeking to have her thrown off the ballot. In turn, Rajkumar has promoted allegations of fraud against Orkin."
...
"When volunteers on Orkin’s campaign began reviewing Rajkumar’s petitions, they discovered something strange – one of the people listed as signing Rajkumar’s petitions was none other than Cary Tilton, a prominent DSA member and one of Orkin’s own campaign volunteers.
“You can imagine my shock and anger when I saw my own name on a Rajkumar petition sheet with a fraudulent signature,” Tilton told City & State in a statement, noting that he’d actually gathered signatures for Orkin. “Signing this petition would fly in the face of every action and decision I’ve made in years and is an impossibility.”
After that, dozens of DSA volunteers began combing through Rajkumar’s petitions and claim they found still more irregularities. On Thursday, Orkin and one of his supporters sued Rajkumar in Queens Supreme Court. They are asking the court to kick her off the ballot on the grounds that her petitions are full of forged signatures."
...
"In a statement, Rajkumar campaign spokesperson Arvind Sooknanan questioned the validity of Orkin’s own signatures, citing a press release from the group Latinos Against Socialism. (No specific objections were ever filed to Orkin’s petition signatures at the New York City Board of Elections or in state court, however.)"
Assuming this is true, this is not a good look for Rajkumar. I'm already not a fan of hers so I'm on team Ortiz here. (Also a great sign when your source is a group called "Latinos Against Socialism".)
This is the fun and games of the New York system after the filing deadline. When you have volunteers and paid canvassers you never know what you'll get. Lawyers, staff, and volunteers are scouring each other's signatures to clear the field.
People also sign multiple petition without realizing it. And that of course is an area where people challenge. Sometimes they sign the wrong one for the wrong candidate by mistake. A few years ago a candidate stood outside a club meeting in Brooklyn and got members of a club backing his opponent to inadvertently sign for him. It actually has a hilarious and sad conclusion. Both sides challenged each others judicial delegates and both sides won. So there were no judicial delegates elected from that assembly district. That candidate ran for another District Leader spot somewhere else (in the Houseboat district... Google it!) but knocked out his rivals.
One obscure rule is if you sign a petition for one candidate you can't carry for another. So if that volunteer did carry petitions for Orkin all of their petitions could be knocked out unless they as they are doing claim something like fraud or forgery. That is a charge that one can only make in court. DOE does not rule on it.
The entire system is one created by Tammany Hall meant to make the system overly complicated and expensive. Which is exactly incumbents of all parties and all ideologies keep them. And is why New York is one of the most expensive states to run in.
bit of a long shot question, but I just finished interviewing a candidate in MT-01, who said he had public polling... I'm not seeing it online, has anyone else seen it? and thoughts about that race?
There is - IIRC, Busse is in the lead, followed by Cleveland, Forstag and Rains. I would support Forstag.
All I can recall is a January poll for Zinke. It showed Zinke leading Busse by 6 and Forstag by 10.
found it on the candidate website of all places. Busse in the lead, followed by Cleveland, Forstag, and Rains. Candidate internal poll. Busse and Forstag were clear fundraising winners in 1Q. https://busseformontana.com/2026/04/new-poll-confirms-ryan-busse-as-clear-frontrunner-in-mt-01-democratic-primary/
With pretty much all the votes counted, Mejia's margin (+20) seems to have matched the electorate (D+20), which is to say independent/third party voters broke about 50/50 towards her and Hathaway. The margin is a strong showing in terms of enthusiasm, but does not reflect Mejia's strength as a candidate. This wasn't just because of a poor performance with Jewish voters, she didn't outrun the electorate in a single town in Essex County, including some extremely-not-Jewish places. A win in a win, but she is not the person I want to see defending the seat in a Democratic president midterm, though unfortunately her primary challengers are all bad (Donald Cresitello is awful, Justin Strickland is pro-term limits and similarly too progressive for the district, and Joseph Lewis is a nobody whose campaign website lists no specific policies and only has vague moderate platitudes).
only if you view trump's coalition as durable, or that republicans will return to winning high propensity voters.
You never see Republicans freak out when their special election victors win by less than normal, like Matt Van Epps. It’s odd. Sure, someone more moderate probably would have won by more. Why should I care when this district is not in danger of flipping?
Ding ding ding, correct, I’m flabbergasted at the inability of our side to just accept a win when it’s staring us in the face.
If anything this win is the epitome of more and better democrats
If NJ does mid decade redistricting maybe Sherrill can move her into Pou's seat?
I doubt any mid-decade redistricting will happen, though I can definitely see her getting drawn in Pou's district in 2032, provided Pou isn't planning to run again.
Why would she get drawn into Pou's district? Isn't that a redder seat that voted for Trump? Or are you predicting that she gets moved into another district to make way for a more moderate candidate
Pou's district is likely to snap back into being bluer than NJ-11, and moving Mejia wouldn't be solely to "make way for a more moderate candidate", but because a fiscally very progressive representative is a better fit for a more urban, working class district.
She got 60% (which may rise to 61% or so) and you want to replace her? She won the district by a bigger margin than Sherrill ever did and you want to replace her?
Yes, for reasons I've outlined repeatidly.
Obviously we can't just be 50/50 with independents if we want a big november. Yea pretty good turnout but obviously candidate quality does matter for those who think we can run socialists in every district.
Saw this article in HuffPost this morning. Very interesting -- and speaks to how well Dems are doing.
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https://www.huffpost.com/entry/democrats-eye-deep-red-turf-as-trump-popularity-tumbles_n_69e185e0e4b0b6f552b86380
"Democrats Eye Deep-Red Turf As Trump's Popularity Tumbles"
"A major Democratic group announced Friday it plans to target 17 House Republicans representing solidly red districts, a sign of how Democratic confidence is growing ahead of November’s midterm elections as President Donald Trump’s popularity slumps.
American Bridge, a super PAC focused on generating opposition research, is launching the “Shaky Eights” program — so named because all of the candidates they’re targeting represent seats with a score of at least R+8 in the Cook Partisan Voter Index, a measure of a district’s partisanship. Among their targets are the chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee and a congressman who is set to appear with President Donald Trump in Arizona on Friday.
“As we’ve watched this cycle trend — with the administration’s decisions, the data we’re getting in on economic sentiment, on health care, on all these issues — we basically decided to change our strategy a little bit,” Pat Dennis, the president of American Bridge 21st Century, told HuffPost in an interview. “Basically, our theory of the case is that there are a lot of House seats right now that are not getting enough attention, because they’re considered safe for Republicans. We are putting our chips on the table and saying this is where the frontier of the fight is.”"
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For those curious, the districts appear to be at https://americanbridgepac.org/targets/ (filter by U.S. House).
Thoughts? Are they overshooting? Are they actually smart to do this?
I think they're smart to do this. We've seen Dem candidates who were underfunded either win the seat or make the seat competitive because GOP voter turnout craters and/or the voters are frustrated with the incumbents.
Will it work for every candidate American Bridge is doing oppo research on? No. But they might dislodge one or two candidates uniquely vulnerable in the D-leaning midterms.
Smart.
Even if they do not win every seat (I see them winning some seats) anytime they can make republicans spend money and waste resources in places republicans do not/did not think they would have to spend money in and away from other places is a W in my book.
I would love to see a Dem representing AR in Congress again. It used to be a sane purple state until it wasn't.
This is what I want to see. If we truly have a wave at our backs, we need to act like it.
Amen to that.
With the caveat that e-day anecdotes can't always be trusted, if we do lose the VA vote today, it's because Dems fumbled the messaging (and are bringing down Spanberger in the process). The state is obv Democratic, but it's filled with "good government" Dems (i.e. folks that work in the federal government and like to see it work how it was supposed to). They care what ed boards think. They seem themselves as fair-minded, not like the extremist GOP. 'Yes' is clearly going to lose a not-insignificant nubmer of strong Spanberger voters.
Louise Lucas' taunting tweets epitomize where the effort went wrong -- it wasn't about pushing back against Trump, it was about sticking it to Republicans broadly and giving Dems all the power they want. Not a good message for NOVA. I still think it passes, but if it happens to lose, she and others will have major egg on their faces.
Porter and Mayan should drop out and throw support to Bacerra. If not California will have a Republican governor.