I went through the 538 database and basically found Scott leading by 3-6% but interesting to me was that Scott seems to max out at 48%; giving Murcasel-Powell at least a puncher's chance if Trump doesn't run up the score here
The abortion and marijuana amendments being on the ballot here will definitely help; also, Scott has never been popular and DeSantis popularity is rapidly tanking; plus, the state Democratic party appears to be doing its best job in over 30 years; all things considered, the Democrats are in the fight this cycle(as opposed to 2022 when the state was basically uncontested)
Given the rapidly moving parts of the Florida electorate, all moving in the GOP's direction, I don't trust that pollsters have any idea how to model polling in the state. My sense is its closeness is a mirage just as has been the case in every election of the last 15 years except 2012.
Talking about actual election results; won't be responding to you further; you are wrong in your post; simple as that(let's be clear, the races were very close; your characterization is frankly idiotic; actual election results are not a 'mirage')
A good outcome wasn’t your original argument though, it was that FL races haven’t been close except for 2012. That’s just not true. 2022 was the exception. Most FL races, especially Pres, Gov, and Scott’s Senate race in the last 15 years have been very close. It’s just that Dems also were on the losing side in most of those races. It remains to be seen if 2022 is the new normal, but I think a lot of it had to do with Crist and Demings being bad candidates.
If it was not clearly articulated, my point was the poll modeling hasn't been close in recent elections in Florida. Close Democratic defeats in Florida came when polls indicated modest Democratic wins. Given the demographic trendlines, when the polls indicate Democratic defeat as they do now, there's little in the way of recent precedent to assume Florida is close rather than a mirage, which was my response to the original question.
I also question whether Rubio is just a uniquely strong candidate in Florida, since outside of DeSantis's 2022 re-election he's the only one who has won by more than a few points, and seems to do so consistently.
I mean for all the talk of Demings being a bad candidate she only underperformed Patrick Murphy's 2016 performance by a few points.
Meanwhile Scott is obviously uniquely unpopular, as evidenced by his underperformance relative to the rest of his party in good GOP years like 2010 and 2014.
Rubio is an excellent retail politician(plus he has a gorgeous cheerleader wife with good-looking kids); and his political team is top-notch; Scott is extremely rich(but that's about it; he's never been popular)
I'd be interested to see if Scott would have even won his first term as governor if the election were held in 2008 or 2012.
All of which is to say, I suppose, that I think there's a good chance this race comes down to the kind of election night we end up having. If The wheels fall off for Trump and Harris manages to either win Florida or lose it by less than a percentage points, I could see that being enough for Scott to get knocked off.
I think you are correct in your assessment; I think Trump leads the ticket; the margin becomes the key for Murcasel-Powell(on election night; I follow Jax\Duval; Orlando\Orange;Tampa\Hillsborough; St.Pete\Pinellas; and the big South Florida 3 for both turnout demographics and actual margins; and extrapolate from there) it pretty much comes down to back of the envelope math at that point(a huge rainstorm on e-day in the Central time zone portion of our state is also a big help)
Polls don't err in the same direction always or forever, but I'm not seeing where your confidence or optimism about Florida is particularly well justified, even if we dismiss 2022 as an aberration (which we probably should.)
Fortunately Harris' campaign isn't chasing that chimera and is emphasizing more winnable states. DMP probably has a better, if not great, chance.
I have posted no confidence or optimism(I live here; I know the odds); I have simply pushed back against nonsense; every post I've made has been extremely conservative; and I've only pointed out actual election results
In 2020, Trump beat Biden here 51-48%; so with abortion as an issue(among others of course), it's not a crazy notion; however, the Harris campaign has not made any indication that they are seriously considering going for Florida's EVs; but Murcasel-Powell is running a serious statewide race
Scott has cleared the 50% threshold exactly 1 time in his entire political career; in 2018 he wound up with a whopping 50.06%; so, an upset is not entirely impossible
Yeah, Scott's election wins haven't exactly been remarkable. If he can barely even win those elections, that's a sign of how vulnerable he is in the Senate race.
Maybe Harris shouldn't go to Florida, but perhaps Walz should. Not every election is 2016, though. Clinton visited several reach states in 1996 and won most of them. Now this is definitely not going to be the same as 1996, but if the Harris campaign has really good reasons to be confident going into the second half of this month, a trip to Florida shouldn't be out of the question.
I deleted this to fix a weird typo, and then I didn't see the reply, so apologies if it gets posted twice.
The 2022 statewide campaign was nonexistent; the voter participation was historically bad on the Democratic side; anyone wants to give me D+ the 2022 Florida statewide spread in a wager? I am taking the bet
Yeah. I think of it like NV 2014. The Dems crashed bc they gave up on the Gov race and there wasn’t enough institutional Dem support and voter turnout to prevent a collapse.
This time, Florida Democrats have a leader and the semblance of a state party organization, enthusiasm, tens of thousands of volunteers, candidates in just about every downticket race (this really matters!), a great Senate candidate against Rick Scott – and a stellar Presidential candidate in Kamala Harris.
Florida isn't a deep red state - 2022 is the only recent year where Republicans romped in the state (at least as far as top-line state elections, I'm not going further into the weeds than that).
However, I think Florida is slowly getting redder and is fairly inelastic now, so we will usually have a high floor but a low ceiling. It's going to be close, but it's probably more vain hope than really winnable in my opinion - getting the last 2-5% to win in this kind of environment is just really, really difficult.
Florida is close or a mirage? https://x.com/USA_Polling/status/1841872242092736899
At -2% for Harris, maybe that is enough for DMP to defeat Rick Scott.
Poll shows her down 5. Although Scott is below 50.
I have seen other polls with it at 2%(going to look for them); I am only going to post if they are reputable and public
Napolitan News Service, whoever they are: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4914363-donald-trump-kamala-harris-florida-survey/
Thank you
I went through the 538 database and basically found Scott leading by 3-6% but interesting to me was that Scott seems to max out at 48%; giving Murcasel-Powell at least a puncher's chance if Trump doesn't run up the score here
I have low expectations when it comes to FL.
Me too
Yes, but it's by no means impossible.
For one reason or another, it's offered disappointment nearly every election cycle since 2000.
The abortion and marijuana amendments being on the ballot here will definitely help; also, Scott has never been popular and DeSantis popularity is rapidly tanking; plus, the state Democratic party appears to be doing its best job in over 30 years; all things considered, the Democrats are in the fight this cycle(as opposed to 2022 when the state was basically uncontested)
Given the rapidly moving parts of the Florida electorate, all moving in the GOP's direction, I don't trust that pollsters have any idea how to model polling in the state. My sense is its closeness is a mirage just as has been the case in every election of the last 15 years except 2012.
You are just wrong about this; look at 2018 and 2020(I could list others but I won't)
Florida polls were right in 2018 and 2020 huh? News to me!
Talking about actual election results; won't be responding to you further; you are wrong in your post; simple as that(let's be clear, the races were very close; your characterization is frankly idiotic; actual election results are not a 'mirage')
Yeah I'd declare victory and go home as quickly as possible too if I was arguing on behalf of good election outcomes in Florida.
A good outcome wasn’t your original argument though, it was that FL races haven’t been close except for 2012. That’s just not true. 2022 was the exception. Most FL races, especially Pres, Gov, and Scott’s Senate race in the last 15 years have been very close. It’s just that Dems also were on the losing side in most of those races. It remains to be seen if 2022 is the new normal, but I think a lot of it had to do with Crist and Demings being bad candidates.
If it was not clearly articulated, my point was the poll modeling hasn't been close in recent elections in Florida. Close Democratic defeats in Florida came when polls indicated modest Democratic wins. Given the demographic trendlines, when the polls indicate Democratic defeat as they do now, there's little in the way of recent precedent to assume Florida is close rather than a mirage, which was my response to the original question.
I also question whether Rubio is just a uniquely strong candidate in Florida, since outside of DeSantis's 2022 re-election he's the only one who has won by more than a few points, and seems to do so consistently.
I mean for all the talk of Demings being a bad candidate she only underperformed Patrick Murphy's 2016 performance by a few points.
Meanwhile Scott is obviously uniquely unpopular, as evidenced by his underperformance relative to the rest of his party in good GOP years like 2010 and 2014.
Rubio is an excellent retail politician(plus he has a gorgeous cheerleader wife with good-looking kids); and his political team is top-notch; Scott is extremely rich(but that's about it; he's never been popular)
That makes sense as far as Rubio goes.
I'd be interested to see if Scott would have even won his first term as governor if the election were held in 2008 or 2012.
All of which is to say, I suppose, that I think there's a good chance this race comes down to the kind of election night we end up having. If The wheels fall off for Trump and Harris manages to either win Florida or lose it by less than a percentage points, I could see that being enough for Scott to get knocked off.
Same with Cruz in Texas.
In 2008 I definitely think he loses; as far as 2012, I'd guess shear tossup
I think you are correct in your assessment; I think Trump leads the ticket; the margin becomes the key for Murcasel-Powell(on election night; I follow Jax\Duval; Orlando\Orange;Tampa\Hillsborough; St.Pete\Pinellas; and the big South Florida 3 for both turnout demographics and actual margins; and extrapolate from there) it pretty much comes down to back of the envelope math at that point(a huge rainstorm on e-day in the Central time zone portion of our state is also a big help)
Polls don't err in the same direction always or forever, but I'm not seeing where your confidence or optimism about Florida is particularly well justified, even if we dismiss 2022 as an aberration (which we probably should.)
Fortunately Harris' campaign isn't chasing that chimera and is emphasizing more winnable states. DMP probably has a better, if not great, chance.
I have posted no confidence or optimism(I live here; I know the odds); I have simply pushed back against nonsense; every post I've made has been extremely conservative; and I've only pointed out actual election results
In 2020, Trump beat Biden here 51-48%; so with abortion as an issue(among others of course), it's not a crazy notion; however, the Harris campaign has not made any indication that they are seriously considering going for Florida's EVs; but Murcasel-Powell is running a serious statewide race
Agreed regarding Mucarsel-Powell's Senate race.
It could be possible though that she may end up winning the race while Democrats don't end up winning FL.
Scott has cleared the 50% threshold exactly 1 time in his entire political career; in 2018 he wound up with a whopping 50.06%; so, an upset is not entirely impossible
Yeah, Scott's election wins haven't exactly been remarkable. If he can barely even win those elections, that's a sign of how vulnerable he is in the Senate race.
Harris isn't making the Hillary mistake of getting diverted and ignoring the blue wall. If we lose Pennsylvania, were screwed.
Agreed; Pennsylvania has always been the 'key stone' state imo
She has enough money where she cooks spend in both FL and PA.
could – but I read what you meant.
Maybe Harris shouldn't go to Florida, but perhaps Walz should. Not every election is 2016, though. Clinton visited several reach states in 1996 and won most of them. Now this is definitely not going to be the same as 1996, but if the Harris campaign has really good reasons to be confident going into the second half of this month, a trip to Florida shouldn't be out of the question.
I deleted this to fix a weird typo, and then I didn't see the reply, so apologies if it gets posted twice.
I think you make a great point;Coach Walz would draw crazy crowds and give the locals a boost if nothing else(he's actually funny when they let him)
I’m not sure how much the abortion referendum will matter. Dobbs didn’t really seem to help much in FL in 2022.
The 2022 statewide campaign was nonexistent; the voter participation was historically bad on the Democratic side; anyone wants to give me D+ the 2022 Florida statewide spread in a wager? I am taking the bet
Yeah. I think of it like NV 2014. The Dems crashed bc they gave up on the Gov race and there wasn’t enough institutional Dem support and voter turnout to prevent a collapse.
This time, Florida Democrats have a leader and the semblance of a state party organization, enthusiasm, tens of thousands of volunteers, candidates in just about every downticket race (this really matters!), a great Senate candidate against Rick Scott – and a stellar Presidential candidate in Kamala Harris.
Best state party work I've seen since the 'Old He Coon' Lawton Chiles was our Governor
Florida isn't a deep red state - 2022 is the only recent year where Republicans romped in the state (at least as far as top-line state elections, I'm not going further into the weeds than that).
However, I think Florida is slowly getting redder and is fairly inelastic now, so we will usually have a high floor but a low ceiling. It's going to be close, but it's probably more vain hope than really winnable in my opinion - getting the last 2-5% to win in this kind of environment is just really, really difficult.
It's not impossible, though.
Agreed; difficult, not impossible