A good outcome wasn’t your original argument though, it was that FL races haven’t been close except for 2012. That’s just not true. 2022 was the exception. Most FL races, especially Pres, Gov, and Scott’s Senate race in the last 15 years have been very close. It’s just that Dems also were on the losing side in most of those races. It rem…
A good outcome wasn’t your original argument though, it was that FL races haven’t been close except for 2012. That’s just not true. 2022 was the exception. Most FL races, especially Pres, Gov, and Scott’s Senate race in the last 15 years have been very close. It’s just that Dems also were on the losing side in most of those races. It remains to be seen if 2022 is the new normal, but I think a lot of it had to do with Crist and Demings being bad candidates.
If it was not clearly articulated, my point was the poll modeling hasn't been close in recent elections in Florida. Close Democratic defeats in Florida came when polls indicated modest Democratic wins. Given the demographic trendlines, when the polls indicate Democratic defeat as they do now, there's little in the way of recent precedent to assume Florida is close rather than a mirage, which was my response to the original question.
I also question whether Rubio is just a uniquely strong candidate in Florida, since outside of DeSantis's 2022 re-election he's the only one who has won by more than a few points, and seems to do so consistently.
I mean for all the talk of Demings being a bad candidate she only underperformed Patrick Murphy's 2016 performance by a few points.
Meanwhile Scott is obviously uniquely unpopular, as evidenced by his underperformance relative to the rest of his party in good GOP years like 2010 and 2014.
Rubio is an excellent retail politician(plus he has a gorgeous cheerleader wife with good-looking kids); and his political team is top-notch; Scott is extremely rich(but that's about it; he's never been popular)
I'd be interested to see if Scott would have even won his first term as governor if the election were held in 2008 or 2012.
All of which is to say, I suppose, that I think there's a good chance this race comes down to the kind of election night we end up having. If The wheels fall off for Trump and Harris manages to either win Florida or lose it by less than a percentage points, I could see that being enough for Scott to get knocked off.
I think you are correct in your assessment; I think Trump leads the ticket; the margin becomes the key for Murcasel-Powell(on election night; I follow Jax\Duval; Orlando\Orange;Tampa\Hillsborough; St.Pete\Pinellas; and the big South Florida 3 for both turnout demographics and actual margins; and extrapolate from there) it pretty much comes down to back of the envelope math at that point(a huge rainstorm on e-day in the Central time zone portion of our state is also a big help)
Don't hold me to it, but could see 52-48; if things continue to go as they have been; the Democrats seem to be fighting back here for once and that's evident by the polling
A good outcome wasn’t your original argument though, it was that FL races haven’t been close except for 2012. That’s just not true. 2022 was the exception. Most FL races, especially Pres, Gov, and Scott’s Senate race in the last 15 years have been very close. It’s just that Dems also were on the losing side in most of those races. It remains to be seen if 2022 is the new normal, but I think a lot of it had to do with Crist and Demings being bad candidates.
If it was not clearly articulated, my point was the poll modeling hasn't been close in recent elections in Florida. Close Democratic defeats in Florida came when polls indicated modest Democratic wins. Given the demographic trendlines, when the polls indicate Democratic defeat as they do now, there's little in the way of recent precedent to assume Florida is close rather than a mirage, which was my response to the original question.
I also question whether Rubio is just a uniquely strong candidate in Florida, since outside of DeSantis's 2022 re-election he's the only one who has won by more than a few points, and seems to do so consistently.
I mean for all the talk of Demings being a bad candidate she only underperformed Patrick Murphy's 2016 performance by a few points.
Meanwhile Scott is obviously uniquely unpopular, as evidenced by his underperformance relative to the rest of his party in good GOP years like 2010 and 2014.
Rubio is an excellent retail politician(plus he has a gorgeous cheerleader wife with good-looking kids); and his political team is top-notch; Scott is extremely rich(but that's about it; he's never been popular)
That makes sense as far as Rubio goes.
I'd be interested to see if Scott would have even won his first term as governor if the election were held in 2008 or 2012.
All of which is to say, I suppose, that I think there's a good chance this race comes down to the kind of election night we end up having. If The wheels fall off for Trump and Harris manages to either win Florida or lose it by less than a percentage points, I could see that being enough for Scott to get knocked off.
Same with Cruz in Texas.
In 2008 I definitely think he loses; as far as 2012, I'd guess shear tossup
He'd lose in 2012, he barely won in 10 and 14.
I think you are correct in your assessment; I think Trump leads the ticket; the margin becomes the key for Murcasel-Powell(on election night; I follow Jax\Duval; Orlando\Orange;Tampa\Hillsborough; St.Pete\Pinellas; and the big South Florida 3 for both turnout demographics and actual margins; and extrapolate from there) it pretty much comes down to back of the envelope math at that point(a huge rainstorm on e-day in the Central time zone portion of our state is also a big help)
Do you have any sense at the moment of how close the margin may be?
Do you think it's going to be a narrow win for Trump, or a more substantial one like we saw for the GOP in '22?
Don't hold me to it, but could see 52-48; if things continue to go as they have been; the Democrats seem to be fighting back here for once and that's evident by the polling
I was gonna say, it seems like for once the FL Dems seem to know what they're doing.