Morning Digest: Utah's new congressional map guarantees a Democratic pickup
And that means a Republican will have to walk the plank—but which one?
Leading Off
UT Redistricting
A Utah judge selected a new congressional map to replace the state’s GOP gerrymander late on Monday night, all but guaranteeing that Democrats will pick up a seat in next year’s midterms. Republicans have vowed to appeal, but their prospects are dim.
In an 89-page ruling, Judge Dianna Gibson of the Third District Court in Salt Lake City rejected a Republican-drawn map passed by lawmakers last month. She concluded that the map violated anti-gerrymandering rules adopted by voters at the ballot box in 2018 and instead picked a plan proposed by plaintiffs. Gibson, who was appointed to the bench by former Republican Gov. Gary Herbert, previously struck down the state’s prior map in August on the same grounds.
The new plan, known as Map 1, establishes a compact district entirely in Salt Lake County that would be solidly blue in almost any election. The state’s three other districts would remain safely red.
According to data from Dave’s Redistricting App and the Redistricting Data Hub, Kamala Harris would have carried this new 1st District 60-37 last year, and even in Utah’s uncompetitive Senate election in 2024, Democrat Caroline Gleich would have won 55-41.
As a consequence, a host of Utah Democrats—deprived of a winnable congressional district for so long—have expressed interest in running for the new-look 1st.
The foremost name on everyone’s lips is former Rep. Ben McAdams, who flipped a prior version of the conservative 4th District in 2018 before losing to Republican Burgess Owens two years later. McAdams was first floated as a possible candidate following Gibson’s initial ruling over the summer and is reportedly set to announce a bid on Thursday.
Two other notable Democrats also previously said they might run, state Sens. Nate Blouin and Kathleen Rieber. Following Gibson’s decision, Blouin told the Deseret News that he’s “seriously considering” a bid, while Riebe reportedly remains interested, according to the paper’s Cami Mondeaux.
Conversely, one Republican will have to walk the plank, though it’s not certain who.
Rep. Blake Moore, who represents the old 1st, will likely run in the revamped 2nd, which runs along the state’s northern border and resembles his current district. Moore lives in Salt Lake City, but he’s originally from Ogden, which is now the largest city in the 2nd.
After that, things get murky. Rep. Mike Kennedy’s hometown of Alpine remains in the 3rd District, to which he was first elected last year. However, even though he lives not far from Salt Lake City, he’s now in the same sprawling district as Rep. Celeste Maloy, who lives in Cedar City in southwestern Utah and represents the previous version of the 2nd.
Owens, meanwhile, saw his hometown of Draper in southern Salt Lake County moved into the 4th District from the 3rd; when he and McAdams originally squared off, both lived outside the 4th.
In theory, any of these three could wind up pitted against one another in a primary. Maloy could run in the 3rd, where her home is, or in the 4th, where the bulk of her constituents live. Kennedy would be a natural fit for the 3rd, but if he cedes southern Utah to Maloy—the only incumbent from that part of the state—he could choose to take on Owens in the 4th. (Alpine is right on the border between the two districts.)
It’s possible that Owens, 74, could resolve this game of musical chairs by retiring. If he doesn’t, though, Kennedy might prefer to run against Maloy, who has turned in weak performances in the only two primaries she’s ever faced and survived by just 176 votes last year.
Republicans have promised to appeal, but they’ve repeatedly received a hostile reception before the Utah Supreme Court during the long-running litigation over the state’s congressional districts. An appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court would not be likely to fare much better, given that the case has turned on Utah law and the state constitution, though intervention by the court’s far-right supermajority can never be ruled out.
The state GOP is also attempting to repeal the redistricting reforms voters greenlit in 2018 with a new ballot initiative of their own. That new measure, however, could not come up for a vote in time to affect next year’s elections.
Yesterday, The Downballot released new polling shared exclusively with us by YouGov Blue that seeks to answer how best Democrats can capitalize on the GOP’s massive unpopularity following last week’s electoral landslide.
The results were fascinating, but if you didn’t have the chance to read about them, you can find our full write-up below:
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Governors
AK-Gov
Democratic state Sen. Matt Claman on Monday joined the packed contest to replace Alaska Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican who is termed out next year. Claman is the 14th candidate to enter the Aug. 18 top-four primary, but is just the second Democrat after former Senate Minority Leader Tom Begich.
Everyone, though, continues to closely watch to see if former Rep. Mary Peltola runs for governor or if Senate Democrats successfully recruit her to challenge GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan.
Claman tells the Anchorage Daily News that he’s been in contact with Peltola, but he didn’t pledge to drop out if she joins the race for governor. Begich, by contrast, said in August he’d end his campaign if Peltola runs to succeed Dunleavy.
Claman, who chairs the Senate Judiciary Committee as part of the bipartisan coalition that includes every Democratic senator and about half of the Republican membership, used his kickoff to tout himself as a nonpartisan problem solver.
“Our state deserves a leader who listens to and works together with the people of Alaska, leads with care, upholds our constitution, and sets partisanship aside to deliver real results,” he said.
FL-Gov
Businessman James Fishback, who runs what he describes as a “free-thinking” investment firm, will soon announce that he’s joining the Republican primary for governor of Florida, Politico reports.
The soon-to-be-candidate himself tells the site, “I’ve made my decision, and I will be making a formal announcement Monday.”
Fishback would face an uphill battle to deny the GOP nomination to Rep. Byron Donalds, the Donald Trump-backed frontrunner. Though not yet officially in the race, Fishback took to social media to excoriate Trump allies like White House deputy chief of staff James Blair, whom Politico says tried to deter him from getting in.
IL-Gov
Former state Sen. Darren Bailey said Monday that he’d continue his second campaign for governor following a helicopter crash last month that killed his son, daughter-in-law, and two grandchildren.
“President Trump recently called and he told me, ‘Darren, keep fighting. Don’t back down,’” Bailey, who was the 2022 Republican nominee for this office, said in a video. “That’s exactly what we’re going to do.”
Bailey is one of seven Republicans who filed last week to oppose Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker, who defeated Bailey three years ago. The primary is March 17.
TX-Gov
Former Rep. Chris Bell, who was the Democratic nominee for governor in 2006, said Monday that he was entering the primary to oppose Republican Gov. Greg Abbott.
Bell, who was elected to the Houston City Council in 1997, first won a seat in the House seat in 2002, but his stint in Congress was brief. Soon after, the GOP passed the infamous DeLaymander that left Bell, who is white, with a district that included many Black and Latino voters whom he didn’t represent.
Former Houston Justice of the Peace Al Green, who is Black, defeated Bell 66-31 in the 2004 Democratic primary on his way to easily winning the 9th District that fall. (Green is now running for the 18th District following yet another GOP gerrymander.)
Bell set his sights higher in 2006 by challenging Republican Gov. Rick Perry in what turned out to be a chaotic four-way general election, but he lost 39-30. Bell went on to unsuccessfully campaign for a GOP-held state Senate seat in 2008 and earned single-digit support in both the 2015 nonpartisan primary for mayor of Houston and the 2020 Democratic primary to oppose Republican Sen. John Cornyn.
Bell joins rancher Bobby Cole, state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, and businessman Andrew White in the March 3 primary to take on Abbott, who is seeking to become the first Texas governor to secure a fourth four-year term. Candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff on May 26.
House
AZ-07
House Speaker Mike Johnson, who for seven weeks has refused to seat Arizona Democrat Adelita Grijalva, now says he’ll do so on Wednesday.
Grijalva resoundingly won a special election for the Tucson-based House seat held by her late father at the end of September. She would be the 218th and final signature needed to force a vote on the release of files related to the investigation of Jeffrey Epstein, as long as no current signatories withdraw their names.
CA-38
Pico Rivera Councilmember Monica Sanchez announced Monday that she would run for California’s new 38th District, an open seat that Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis, a fellow Democrat, had looked set to easily claim.
Solis, who resigned from the House in 2009 to become Barack Obama’s first labor secretary, is waging a comeback after an 18-year absence. The former cabinet official, who went on to be elected to the powerful Board of Supervisors in 2014, has endorsements from Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass and five U.S. House members from Southern California.
One person who is not in her corner, though, is Rep. Linda Sanchez, who confirmed Monday that she’d run for the new 41st District. While Sanchez, who represents the current incarnation of the 38th, previously served with Solis, she’s supporting Monica Sanchez over her former colleague. (The two are not related.)
That endorsement could help the councilmember get her name out ahead of the June top-two primary, as Linda Sanchez currently represents about 40% of the denizens of the new 38th. (Another 49% are in the revamped 41st.) Rep. Norma Torres, who represents the neighboring 35th District, is also backing Monica Sanchez.
Kamala Harris carried the new 38th, which includes several communities in Los Angeles County and part of northern Orange County, 55-42. But while Republicans are unlikely to flip this seat, a GOP candidate could secure one of the two spots in the general election and avert an all-Democratic showdown.
CA-48
Navy veteran Marc Iannarino on Tuesday became the latest Democrat to announce a campaign against Republican Rep. Darrell Issa in the revamped 48th District, which transformed under California’s new map from a safely red seat into a light blue constituency.
Iannarino, who works as a bartender in Palm Springs, told the Times of San Diego he was announcing on Veterans Day because “[w]atching armed services used to intimidate U.S. citizens, that was a tipping point for me.”
Iannarino is one of several Democrats who are running to flip the 48th District, which now includes Palm Springs and other communities in the Inland Empire as well as Issa’s old base around San Diego. The new version of this seat would have backed Kamala Harris 50-47, a big shift from Donald Trump’s 56-41 win under the existing lines.
The June top-two primary field includes two notable Democrats who were campaigning against GOP Rep. Ken Calvert before the new map moved the Palm Springs area into the 48th: wealthy businessman Brandon Riker, who has self-funded much of his effort, and attorney Anuj Dixit. Local school board member Abel Chavez made the same switch, but he’s struggled to raise money.
Two other noteworthy candidates only began running this summer after Democrats unveiled the new map: San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and Navy Reserve officer Ammar Campa-Najjar, who lost to Issa in 2020.
Issa, for his part, has yet to announce whether he’ll defend what’s still a competitive district or campaign for the conservative 40th District. Calvert and fellow GOP Rep. Young Kim are already competing for the latter seat, and Issa’s entry into that race would set off an exceedingly unusual House race between three incumbents from the same party.
NH-01
Conservative activist Elizabeth Girard said Monday that she was entering the busy GOP primary to flip New Hampshire’s open 1st District, a move that comes almost three months after her initial filing with the FEC was met with outrage by many fellow Republicans.
“There was more spontaneous reaction to news of Elizabeth Girard’s candidacy— overwhelmingly negative —than any candidate announcement in NHJournal history,” the conservative NHJournal tweeted in August.
Girard resigned as president of the New Hampshire Federation of Women in 2023 after she broke its neutrality rules to endorse Donald Trump. One critic at the time called Girard, who had previously insisted that other members of the group follow those rules and refrain from backing any White House hopefuls, a “snake,” and her enemies were hardly any nicer this summer when word of her potential campaign broke.
Girard joins several Republicans campaigning to succeed Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas, who is giving up the competitive 1st District to run for the Senate.
NJ-11
Chatham Councilman Justin Strickland, an Army veteran who went on to serve in the Department of Defense, this week joined the unfolding Democratic primary to succeed Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill in the 11th District.
The New Jersey Globe writes that Strickland “is likely to lack the institutional support that some of his opponents will have.” Strickland, though, is seeking to turn his outsider status into an advantage, telling the outlet, “My campaign is all about the grassroots—it’s about regular people.”
Several other Democrats are running in the special election, which has not yet been scheduled, to replace Sherrill in Congress. Kamala Harris carried the 11th District, which includes the western New York City suburbs and exurbs, 53-45.
NY-08
New York City Council member Chi Osse plans to launch a primary challenge against House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries this week, the New York Post reports.
While Osse, who is one of the most progressive members of the Council and an ally of New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani, told Axios just last month that he wouldn’t run for New York’s 8th District, he had a very different response to an inquiry from the New York Times’ Benjamin Oreskes.
Osse said he had been “hearing a lot of concern about Democratic Party leadership,” and that this was “a big part of why I worked so hard to get Zohran elected and defeat the establishment’s champion, Andrew Cuomo.” He added, “Right now, I’m focused on serving my constituents and guaranteeing the success of Zohran’s agenda at City Hall.”
Fellow Times reporter Nicholas Fandos, though, reported last week that Mamdani attempted to talk Osse out of opposing Jeffries. That entreaty failed, though, prompting Mamdani to disinvite Osse from attending his election night party last week, according to Oreskes.
VA-02
Former Rep. Elaine Luria announced Wednesday morning that she would run to reclaim Virginia’s 2nd District from Rep. Jen Kiggans, the Republican who narrowly unseated her in 2022.
“Service to our country means putting the interests of the people above all else—including political parties,” said Luria, a Navy veteran who represented Hampton Roads for two terms. “That’s why I cannot sit back and watch as Republicans in Congress create chaos while failing to address the rising cost of living and the issues that matter to Coastal Virginians.”
Luria is the most prominent Democrat running in what’s one of the most competitive House seats in the nation. However, she’s not the only one.
The June primary field includes physician Nila Devanath, Navy Reserve veteran James Osyf, former state cabinet member Matt Strickler, and Marine veteran Michael Williamson. Osyf responded to the news of Luria’s upcoming announcement on Tuesday with a statement declaring, “Yesterday’s establishment got us into this mess; they’re not going to get us out of it.”
Adding to the intrigue is the possibility that this Virginia Beach-based constituency, which favored Donald Trump by an extremely slender 49.5 to 49.3 spread last year, could soon become considerably tougher for Kiggans.
Democrats in the state legislature are aiming to place a constitutional amendment before voters next spring that would allow them to redraw Virginia’s congressional map in time for next November’s elections.
WA-04
Former NASCAR driver Jerrod Sessler has confirmed to the Tri-Central Herald that he’s waging a third campaign for Washington’s conservative 4th District after losing an all-Republican general election to Rep. Dan Newhouse by a 52-46 margin last year.
Sessler, who failed to advance out of the 2022 top-two primary, told the paper back in January that he was preparing to once again oppose Newhouse, who is one of just two Republicans left in the House who voted to impeach Donald Trump following the Jan. 6 riots. (The other is David Valadao of California.)
Sessler, whose X profile still touts him as a “Trump endorsed future Congressman in Central Washington”—Trump backed his 2024 effort but hasn’t yet made an endorsement for this year—doesn’t seem to have formally launched his latest effort so much as he never stopped running. Donors, though, don’t appear to be excited about him: Sessler ended September with just $2,000 banked, compared to over $400,000 for Newhouse.
WI-07
Public relations professional Jessi Ebben’s 2020 campaign for Wisconsin’s 3rd District attracted little outside attention, but her bid for the open and dark red 7th District has one very powerful backer.
Punchbowl’s Ally Mutnick flags that Liz Uihlein, who is one of the most prominent conservative megadonors in the country, is hosting a fundraiser on Thursday for Ebben. It remains to be seen if Uihlein or her husband, Dick Uihlein, will also use their wealth to fund an outside group to aid Ebben, whose first bid for office five years ago ended in a 66-34 primary loss to Derrick Van Orden in the southeastern part of the state.
Ebben so far faces two notable opponents in next August’s primary for the northeastern Wisconsin seat that GOP Rep. Tom Tiffany is giving up to run for governor. The field consists of attorney Paul Wassgren, who has pledged to self-fund $1 million, and podcast producer Michael Alfonso, who is best known as the son-in-law of former Rep. Sean Duffy.
The most notable Democrat in the race is former state Rep. Fred Clark, who represented part of the southeastern part of the state over a decade ago. In 2011, Clark waged an unsuccessful campaign to unseat Republican state Sen. Luther Olsen, who was one of several legislators that Democrats attempted to recall for supporting then-Gov. Scott Walker’s anti-labor agenda.
Clark, who did not seek reelection to the Assembly in 2014, relocated north to retire, but he tells the Wisconsin Examiner that Donald Trump’s attacks on American democracy have spurred him to run in his new home. While Trump carried the 7th 61-38, Clark argues that Democrats have their first chance to win it since Duffy flipped this seat during the 2010 red wave.
Poll Pile
IL-09 (D): Impact Research (D) for Daniel Biss: Daniel Biss: 31, Kat Abughazaleh: 17, Laura Fine: 10, Mike Simmons: 6, Hoan Huynh: 4, Bushra Amiwala: 3, Phil Andrew: 3, Bruce Leon: 2.
Editor’s Note: In this Morning Digest, we included a poll of Arizona’s 1st District that we incorrectly believed to be an initial ballot poll. It was an informed ballot poll. The Downballot’s policy is not to publish informed ballot polls unless they also include initial ballot data, which this survey did not. We regret the error
I heard in a volunteer meeting last night that the veto referendum on gerrymandering in Missouri has over 200k signatures. And they still have a couple weeks to gather. So even if the SoS's completely illegal move to prevent signatures gathered earlier from being counted is upheld, there will still be enough signatures to block the new map. I'm sure statewide republicans will still try other maneuvers to keep the gerrymandered map, so we'll see.
Rep. Adelita Grijalva sworn in