Morning Digest: Top House Republican grouses about GOP congressman who's giving up a vulnerable seat
"We spent $40 million to keep that seat. It stings us to have him leave."
Leading Off
MI-10, MI-Gov
As Republicans publicly fret that Michigan Rep. John James’ decision to run for governor has “[a]bsolutely” made it tougher for them to hold his suburban Detroit seat, they’re hoping to land a new candidate to defend the 10th Congressional District.
They apparently have a name in mind: Wealthy businessman Kevin Rinke “has been urged” to run to succeed James rather than oppose him in the primary for governor, Detroit News columnist Kaitlyn Buss writes.
Rinke, who has sounded likely to wage a campaign for the state’s top job, has not publicly said anything about running for the House, and Buss did not identify who might be trying to recruit him.
Republicans are right to be concerned. Calculations by The Downballot show that the 10th District, which is based in Macomb County, favored Donald Trump 52-46 last year after supporting him just 50-49 in 2020.
James’ fellow Republicans—including another member of Michigan’s House delegation—aren’t comforted by those single-digit margins.
“That’s an understatement to say that it’s not ideal,” Rep. Lisa McClain, who is part of the House GOP’s leadership, recently told the conservative Washington Examiner.
While McClain, who represents a neighboring district, expressed optimism that her party would hold the 10th without James, she did nothing to hide how little she relished the coming open-seat battle—especially after the GOP spent so much to help James win it in both 2022 and 2024.
“I mean, if we’re going to be honest, we spent $40 million to keep that seat for him over the two cycles, right?” she said. “It stings us to have him leave that seat, there’s no question. This would be his, what, third term?”
“You know, to have that an open seat, A, it’s going to cost us more money and, two, you have a new face: It would be a heck of a lot easier for us to keep that seat if he stayed.”
The congresswoman isn’t the first—or even the most influential—Republican to wish that James had decided to seek reelection rather than a promotion.
“You know, he’s running for governor, but I’m not sure I’m happy about that, John,” Trump told James at an event in June. “Do we have somebody good to take your seat?”
The congressman quickly answered in the affirmative, to which Trump responded, “Cause, otherwise, we’re not letting him run for governor. We can’t.” He added, “You have somebody good, right? … As long as you like him, they’ll win.”
James never specified who “somebody good” might be, and he has yet to endorse anyone to succeed him in the House. Trump has also not taken sides in either the primary for governor or the 10th District.
James, though, remains intent on becoming Michigan’s next governor—in part so he can punish the people he blames for costing him the 2020 U.S. Senate race.
“How about this: Get you a governor who was screwed in 2020 and you’ll get consequences for those who did you wrong,” he told a GOP gathering earlier this month. Those comments, which were first publicized by Detroit News reporter Craig Mauger, came after one attendee described Michigan’s elections as “totally corrupt.”
James lost to Democratic Sen. Gary Peters 50-48 five years ago—a margin of about 92,000 votes. The Republican took nearly three weeks to concede as he unsuccessfully tried to delay the state from certifying vote totals in heavily Democratic Wayne County, but he ultimately acknowledged Peters had defeated him.
James, who even said he would send the senator a congratulatory bottle of Scotch, went on to win a seat in the House two years later by an unexpectedly narrow margin against Democrat Carl Marlinga after major Democratic groups and donors wrote off the race. James won an expensive rematch last year by a wider 51-45 spread, a margin of victory equal to Trump’s performance in his district.
Following those close outcomes, Democrats had planned to target the 10th District even before James launched his gubernatorial campaign in April, and four notable candidates are competing in next August’s primary: former Biden administration official Eric Chung, Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel, Army veteran Alex Hawkins, and former prosecutor Christina Hines.
The Republican field has been much slower to take shape in the nearly six months since James announced he would run statewide.
Prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj is currently the only serious GOP candidate in the race, though that may be about to change. Several prominent Republicans have called for Army National Guard member Mike Bouchard to run after his overseas deployment ends.
One of those people is longtime Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, the would-be candidate’s father and namesake, who recently poor-mouthed Lulgjuraj to the Examiner.
“Robert’s a nice young man, but I think that it’s going to be tough for him to get where he needs to go,” Bouchard said.
A few other Republicans are also eyeing this race. Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski expressed interest in June, and Buss of the Detroit News says that he’s still considering.
But former Rep. Mike Bishop, who represented the Lansing area under the last map, has been reluctant to seek a comeback after losing to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin in 2018.
“It’s going to be a tough one for Republicans to keep,” Bishop, whose old constituency barely overlaps with the 10th, told Buss.
The former congressman didn’t completely rule out running, but he acknowledged he had reason to be wary.
“The circumstances and drama around this district are really difficult to deal with,” Bishop said.
David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot. I’m dismayed to report that we just discovered another website was stealing our content wholesale all year long (see here). I don’t know how many subscribers or how much traffic this theft cost us, but I hope you’ll help us recover by upgrading to a paid subscription today. Thank you.
Election Night
Jackson County, MO Executive
Jackson County Executive Frank White is defending himself on Tuesday in a recall campaign that’s taking place in Missouri’s second-largest county.
Critics of White, a Democrat who was an All-Star second baseman for the Royals in the 1970s and ‘80s before entering politics, say they want him removed because of rising property taxes.
White, though, has argued he’s being targeted because he successfully opposed a ballot measure last year that would have extended a sales tax to fund stadiums for the Royals and the Kansas City Chiefs. He predicted to the Kansas City Star that if he’s recalled, another stadium funding measure will appear on the ballot in the spring.
Voters will be presented with a “yes” or “no” question asking whether they want to remove White. If the “yes” side prevails, it would be up to the county legislature to choose a new executive, who would have to be a Democrat. But whether or not White is recalled, his post will be up again in November of next year.
The 75-year-old incumbent, who says he won’t run in 2026 anyway, is hoping to defend an office descended from the one that Harry Truman held early in his political career. The future president served as presiding judge, which, despite its name, was an executive rather than a judicial post. The office was renamed in the early 1970s as part of a wide-ranging transformation of local government.
Senate
AL-Sen
ESPN host Paul Finebaum told OutKick on Monday that he’s “considering” entering the Republican primary for Alabama’s open Senate seat.
Finebaum, who shared that he recently moved back to Alabama after more than a decade in North Carolina, added that he wants to decide in the next “30 to 45 days.” Finebaum would join a busy race to replace Sen. Tommy Tuberville, who is running for governor.
Finebaum, 70, has not been politically active before, telling The Athletic in July he saw himself as “a fairly middle-of-the-road person.” The would-be candidate, though, now informs Outkick that he experienced an “awakening” following the death of Charlie Kirk.
MI-Sen
Rep. Haley Stevens is set to take part in the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s upcoming “Napa Retreat,” Politico’s Adam Wren reports.
Wren notes that Haley’s participation, which neither her campaign nor the DSCC disputed, “establishes the closest link so far between Stevens and the DSCC’s preference for her.”
Neither DSCC chair Kirsten Gillibrand nor Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has endorsed Stevens in next August’s primary, in which the congresswoman faces two credible opponents who are positioning themselves as alternatives to the current leadership.
State Sen. Mallory McMorrow entered the race earlier this year after she called for Schumer to step down as the upper chamber’s top Democrat, and she’s said she wouldn’t vote to retain him.
That wasn’t the first time she clashed with national Democrats. The DSCC, according to a recent report from NBC, asked McMorrow in February to “hold off” on launching her campaign. One source said that, while the committee didn’t ask her to stay out of the race, it was “slow-walking” her. McMorrow ignored the DSCC’s requests and kicked off her bid in April.
Former Wayne County Health Director Abdul El-Sayed, for his part, told NBC “that I’m sometimes not the ‘capital D’ Democratic Party’s favorite.” El-Sayed, though, has not committed to opposing Schumer in a leadership election.
“Anybody who tells you that they’re going to unilaterally oppose one potential candidate without knowing who the alternative is, is either unnuanced or unsophisticated,” he told Politico in April.
Stevens, for her part, called Schumer “a great leader” in March, though she’s punted when asked if she might vote to keep him on.
“The people who are asking me this are not my voters, you know what I mean?” she told Semafor in June. “They don’t need me talking about inside baseball.”
NH-Sen
Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas posts a 49-43 lead over former Republican Sen. John Sununu in a hypothetical general election matchup, according to a newly released poll from the University of New Hampshire. The school also shows Pappas with a larger 52-37 advantage over former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.
Two older surveys from GOP firms showed Pappas with a smaller edge over Sununu, who has said he’ll decide next month whether he’ll run for New Hampshire’s open U.S. Senate seat. Both of those polls also found Pappas with a double-digit advantage over Brown, who began running in June.
UNH, though, gives us our first look at next year’s Democratic primary and shows Pappas dominating activist Karishma Manzur 65-14. Pappas has the support of retiring Sen. Jeanne Shaheen and other prominent state Democrats, while Manzur is waging a long-shot effort.
UNH, finally, finds Sununu outpacing Brown 42-19, with state Sen. Dan Innis at 7%. The poll was concluded days before Innis announced he was suspending his campaign to support Sununu. Innis said he’d restart his campaign if the former senator doesn’t run.
TX-Sen, TX-LG, TX-AG
Democratic Rep. Joaquin Castro tells the Dallas Morning News that he remains interested in running for the Senate, but adds that he could also campaign for either attorney general or lieutenant governor. But while Castro previously talked about running for governor in June, he does not appear to have mentioned that office this time.
David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot. I’m dismayed to report that we just discovered another website was stealing our content wholesale all year long (see here). I don’t know how many subscribers or how much traffic this theft cost us, but I hope you’ll help us recover by upgrading to a paid subscription today. Thank you.
Governors
CT-Gov
Westport First Selectwoman Jen Tooker dropped out of the Republican primary for governor of Connecticut on Friday.
Her departure leaves state Sen. Ryan Fazio as the only notable GOP candidate, though he’s likely to have intraparty opposition again soon. The CT Mirror anticipates that New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart will enter the race after the state’s Nov. 4 municipal elections.
Democratic Gov. Ned Lamont, for his part, still hasn’t confirmed whether he’ll seek a third term, though he’s sounded likely to run again. State Rep. Josh Elliott announced in July that he would oppose Lamont.
GA-Gov
State Rep. Ruwa Romman announced Monday that she was joining the Democratic primary for Georgia’s open governorship.
Romman, who was born in Jordan, made history in 2022 when she became both the first Muslim woman elected to the state legislature and the first Palestinian American elected in Georgia.
Romman, an ardent critic of Israel’s government, attracted national attention last year when she was denied a speaking slot at the Democratic National Committee. The lawmaker, who gave a speech in support of Kamala Harris to protestors outside the gathering, went on to write a piece in Rolling Stone urging like-minded readers to back Harris to stop Donald Trump.
Romman has become one of the more prominent progressives in the state, but she acknowledged to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that she faces a tough campaign. Still, she argued, “We have to stand for something. Does that mean you’re going to succeed at every single turn? No, but we can set a vision that voters can get behind.”
Romman joins a busy May 19 primary roster that includes former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, former Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan, former state Sen. Jason Esteves, state Rep. Derrick Jackson, and former DeKalb County Chief Executive Michael Thurmond. Candidates need to clear 50% of the vote to avoid a runoff on June 16—a difficult task in a field this large.
NJ-Gov
A conservative group called Save Jersey has released a new poll, conducted by a GOP firm called Valcour, that finds Democrat Mikie Sherrill with a small 47-45 lead over Republican Jack Ciatarelli in November’s race for governor. Notably, voters are asked about their voting intentions only after a long battery of 26 other questions on a wide variety of topics, including three in a row about Charlie Kirk.
TX-Gov
An advisor to Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa tells Axios that “she’s going to get in” to the race for governor, adding that she’ll likely announce in the next couple of weeks. While Hinojosa herself has not committed to anything publicly, reporter Asher Price obtained an email in which she told a donor that she’s “running for governor.”
Hinojosa would join rancher Bobby Cole and businessman Andrew White in seeking the Democratic nomination to oppose Republican Rep. Greg Abbott.
David Nir here, publisher of The Downballot. I’m dismayed to report that we just discovered another website was stealing our content wholesale all year long (see here). I don’t know how many subscribers or how much traffic this theft cost us, but I hope you’ll help us recover by upgrading to a paid subscription today. Thank you.
House
IA-04
Farmer Kyle Larsen dropped out of the Republican primary on Monday and endorsed Chris McGowan, who heads the Siouxland Chamber of Commerce. McGowan is one of several candidates running to succeed GOP Rep. Randy Feenstra, who has said he’s planning to leave behind the safely red 4th District to run for governor of Iowa.
NH-02
University of New Hampshire: Maggie Goodlander (D-inc): 51, Lily Tang Williams (R): 39.
TX-21
Businessman Jason Cahill announced Monday that he would run to succeed Rep. Chip Roy, a fellow Texas Republican who is giving up the 21st District to run for attorney general. The new contender says he will self-fund $250,000 to “jumpstart his campaign.”
The Texan, a news site, says that Cahill, who served in the Navy, went on to become an “oil and gas executive.” He joins former Texas Rangers first baseman Mark Teixeira in next March’s GOP primary for this safely red constituency, which merges a slice of San Antonio with the Texas Hill Country.
YAY Schweikert runs for AZ GOV abandons reelection to Congress. Swing seat open https://x.com/PatrickSvitek/status/1973023645640573189
I'm so sorry that other site has been stealing your content. Terrible. Unforgivable.