Morning Digest: GOP congressman loathed by MAGA draws another challenge

Tony Gonzales survived last year's primary by just 354 votes. Is his time up?

Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales (at right) (credit: Tony Gonzales Facebook)

Leading Off

TX-23

Rancher Susan Storey Rubio announced Thursday that she would challenge Texas Rep. Tony Gonzales, whom she denounced as a "spineless moderate," in next year's Republican primary for the conservative 23rd District.

Storey Rubio's launch comes a year after the congressman won renomination by just a 50.6 to 49.4 margin—a difference of 354 votes—against Brandon Herrera, a far-right "gunfluencer" whom Gonzales had far outspent.

Herrera portrayed Gonzales, whose sprawling West Texas constituency includes much of the U.S. border with Mexico, as weak on immigration enforcement. Herrera was also happy to pile on after the state Republican Party censured Gonzales for, among other things, voting for gun-safety legislation after the 2022 Uvalde school shooting, which took place in his district.

Storey Rubio leveled similar grievances in her announcement video. The new candidate, while not mentioning Gonzales' record on firearms, declares, "For the last four years, I've had to carry a gun because of the criminal illegals traveling through and destroying my property."

Storey Rubio continues by denouncing the congressman for failing to "lift a finger to help President Trump." The camera goes on to show an image of an ICE bus parked in front of the Capitol steps as the challenger says, "It's time to round up the career politicians and deport them out of Washington, D.C."

But while Gonzales' narrow escape last year shows that he's alienated many MAGA voters back home, the congressman retains some powerful friends. The incumbent, who has repeatedly clashed with the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus, last time enjoyed the ardent support of House GOP leadership and its allied super PACs.

And though Storey Rubio, according to the Texas Tribune, says she'll seed her campaign with $350,000 of her own money, that's only a fraction of what her opponent has at his disposal. Gonzales finished March with almost $2 million in the bank, a total that's likely to increase when updated numbers covering the second quarter of the year become available on July 15.

There's also the question of whether Trump, who remained neutral last year, will take sides. While the congressman angered election deniers by voting to recognize Joe Biden's victory in the hours after the Jan. 6 riot, he's been a vocal ally of the Trump administration.

Anyone else who wants to take on Gonzales has until early December to file. Because Texas requires candidates win a majority of the vote to avoid a runoff, a packed field might not work out to the congressman's advantage. Gonzales took just 45% in the first round last year, and the subsequent runoff almost ended his career.

His last challenger, however, doesn't sound likely to try again. Herrera, who retains a large fanbase on social media, recently responded to a question about whether he'd seek office again by writing that his last campaign "was probably the worst 9 months of my life lol." While expressing pride for having come so close, he added, "If I did do it again, it would be after much soul searching."

The 23rd District was one of the most competitive House districts in the nation during the 2010s, but Republican gains with Latino voters and the GOP's most recent gerrymander have made it reliably red. Calculations by The Downballot show this constituency favored Trump 57-42 last year, which represents a further shift to the right from his 53-46 showing in 2020.

Primary season starts now

Senate

TX-Sen

Former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who's been considering a second Senate bid, tells the Dallas Morning News that he'll make a decision next month. A number of prominent Democrats have been eyeing the race, but so far none have launched campaigns against Sen. John Cornyn, who trails state Attorney General Ken Paxton in polls of the GOP primary.

Governors

AK-Gov

Edna DeVries, a Republican who serves as mayor of Mat-Su Borough, said Thursday that she'd filed paperwork for a possible campaign for Alaska's open governorship. DeVries, who is 83, told the Anchorage Daily News this initial step was "sort of a testing of the waters," and that she hadn't decided whether to run.

VA-Gov

A Republican pollster finds Democrat Abigail Spanberger leading Republican Winsome Earle-Sears 46-43, which it argues is considerably better for the GOP than what conventional wisdom suggests." The survey, conducted by co/efficient, was taken on behalf of Founders Insight, a group run by a former member of Gov. Glenn Youngkin's administration.

House

MI-10

Several Michigan Republicans are publicly or privately considering running for Michigan's competitive 10th District, the Detroit News reports, though no one has entered the race yet. This constituency in the Detroit suburbs is open because GOP Rep. John James is running for governor—an announcement he made over two months ago.

State Rep. Joe Aragona is the most vocal about his interest in running, and he informs reporters Grant Schwab and Melissa Nann Burke that he's giving the idea "serious" thought.

Former state Rep. Rocky Raczkowski also says he's thinking about it, though he adds, "If there's a better candidate that will work for the people and our nation than I, then I will support that candidate." Given Raczkowski's poor electoral history, which includes his high-profile 2010 loss to then-Rep. Gary Peters for the old 9th District, it shouldn't be hard to find a "better candidate"—at least in principle.

The News also reports that Mike Bouchard, who is the son and namesake of Oakland County's longtime sheriff, could run. The elder Bouchard recently told the paper that his son could not discuss politics as an Army National Guard member now deployed overseas, but he said, "I know he's got a passion to serve this country."

In addition, the News says that Rep. Mike Bishop, who represented the last incarnation of the 8th District, is interested in replacing James, but he hasn't said anything about a possible comeback.

Bishop lost reelection in 2018 to Democrat Elissa Slotkin, who now serves with Peters in the Senate. Only about 10% of James' constituents live within the boundaries of Bishop's old constituency.

Finally, GOP sources believe three others are "leaning toward" running: prosecutor Robert Lulgjuraj, businessman Paul Shamo, and Shelby Township Supervisor Rick Stathakis. None, however, has said anything about their interest either.

Democrats, by contrast, already have several serious candidates running, including attorney Eric Chung, Army veteran Alex Hawkins, former prosecutor Christina Hines, and Pontiac Mayor Tim Greimel.

The 10th District, which is based in Macomb County, favored Donald Trump by a modest 52-46 spread last year, and even the GOP's supreme master has acknowledged that the seat could change hands.

"John James. I don't know. You know, he's running for governor, but I'm not sure I'm happy about that, John," Trump told the congressman on Thursday. "Do we have somebody good to take your seat?"

James quickly answered in the affirmative, to which Trump responded, "Cause, otherwise, we're not letting him run for governor. We can't." He added, "You have somebody good, right? … As long as you like him, they'll win."

James himself told the Detroit News that there were three potential GOP candidates who were "really impressing me right now." The outgoing congressman did, however, identify them, nor did he confirm Trump's supposition that his favorite is a man.

Legislatures

MN State House, MN State Senate

A gunman killed Minnesota state Rep. Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, and shot state Sen. John Hoffman and his wife, Yvette, on Saturday in what Gov. Tim Walz described as a "politically motivated assassination."

Hortman, the top-ranking Democrat in the state House, had served as speaker from 2019 until earlier this year. She relinquished her post as part of a power-sharing deal with Republicans following the 2024 elections, which had resulted in a deadlocked chamber after each party won 67 seats.

Following two unsuccessful bids for the state House in 1998 and 2002, Hortman joined the legislature by narrowly ousting a Republican incumbent in 2004. After Democrats regained unified control of state government for the first time in many years during the 2022 midterms, Hortman led a busy legislative session that saw the party pass a huge range of long-delayed priorities.

That list included measures adopting paid sick leave, instituting gun safety rules, legalizing marijuana, protecting abortion rights, expanding voting rights, investing in affordable housing, and many more.

Hoffman was first elected to the Senate in 2012 and rose to become a member of Democratic leadership. He and his wife were reported to be awake and recovering on Sunday after surgery.

Mayors & County Leaders

New York, NY Mayor

Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani and Comptroller Brad Lander endorsed each other's campaigns ahead of New York City's June 24 Democratic primary, marking the first time two mayoral candidates have formally cross-endorsed one another since voters in the city approved ranked-choice voting in 2019.

Earlier this month, state Sen. Jessica Ramos endorsed former Gov. Andrew Cuomo, but Cuomo explicitly did not return the favor, saying, "She is endorsing me. I am not endorsing her." And four years ago, after one-time presidential candidate Andrew Yang encouraged voters to also rank Sanitation Commissioner Kathryn Garcia, Garcia said, "Let me be very clear: I'm not co-endorsing."

The new collab is more likely to favor Mamdani, who has emerged as Cuomo's chief rival, if Lander supporters heed his advice and rank Mamdani on their ballots. Lander has generally been a distant third in polling, so he'd only benefit in the unlikely event that Mamdani is eliminated before he is during ranked-choice tabulations.

It'll be a while before we know the outcome of those tabulations, though: The Board of Elections says it won't redistribute votes until July 1, a week after the election. Prior to that date, only totals for first-choice votes will be released.