Morning Digest: Texas GOP gerrymander may spark generational clash
Two Democrats are 40 years apart but have deep ties to the same city
Leading Off
TX-35, TX-37
While state House Democrats are still denying Texas Republicans the quorum they need to pass a new congressional gerrymander, two prominent Austin congressmen are already preparing to run for the same seat.
This potential confrontation between Rep. Lloyd Doggett, 78, and Rep. Greg Casar, 36, would set off a generational battle in what would be one of the nation's most closely watched Democratic primaries.
Doggett sent an email to supporters on Sunday saying he'd seek a 17th term in the 37th District, which would remain a safely blue Austin-based seat under the GOP's proposed map.
Doggett, who represents the existing incarnation of the 37th, also took the opportunity to urge Casar to run in the proposed 35th District—a constituency that has little in common with Casar's current district beyond sharing a number.
But Casar, who served on the Austin City Council before he was elected to Congress in 2022, unsubtly rejected the idea of running in a district that would include none of Texas' capital city.
"I love you Austin Texas," Casar tweeted on Monday shortly after Punchbowl's Ally Mutnick shared Doggett's email calling for him to run elsewhere.
The safely blue 35th District that Casar currently serves was drawn by Republicans in 2021 to serve as a Democratic vote sink. The extremely gerrymandered district managed to fuse the heart of San Antonio with key portions of Austin some 80 miles away by grafting the two regions together via a narrow strip hugging Interstate 35.
Doggett had represented the previous version of the 35th, which featured the same distended barbell shape, from 2013 until 2023.
GOP legislators, though, want to replace the district with a San Antonio-based constituency that would have favored Donald Trump 55-44 last year. And few voters would have seen Casar on their ballots before: According to data from The Downballot, just 10% of the residents of the proposed 35th live in his existing district.
Despite those imposing numbers, though, Doggett argued that Casar, who is Latino, would not only be a formidable candidate in what would be a heavily Latino constituency (Doggett is white).
He even opined that Casar, who chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus, might be the only Democrat who could prevail there, writing in his email that Casar "has the potential to use his organizing skills and populist message to win over the disaffected, particularly disaffected Hispanic voters."
Doggett has also pushed back against critics who believe he should step aside for a younger politician like Casar. Doggett, who was the first Democrat in Congress to urge Joe Biden to end his reelection campaign last summer, believes his situation is completely different.
"I would say that my concern about President Biden was he wasn't up to the job," he told CNN last month. "It was a question not of age, but of action. And I'm pleased to have my record evaluated."
Doggett, a member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, also highlighted his influence in Congress in his message to his supporters.
"In a House again controlled by Democrats, seniority is power," he wrote. "And in fighting Republican shenanigans, experience is an asset."
If Doggett and Casar, who have both urged their backers to support legislative Democrats' effort to stop the new gerrymander from going into effect, nonetheless end up facing off in the 37th, the former would have the edge—at least on paper.
Doggett currently represents 68% of the proposed 37th, while Casar serves 32%. The veteran congressman also finished June with $6.2 million stockpiled, while the more junior Casar had just over $450,000 to spend.
Doggett also has extensive experience winning renomination despite past GOP attempts to gerrymander his career into oblivion. As this animated map shows, the congressman has represented six different House districts during his three decades on Capitol Hill, and just about the only thing they all shared was that they included a piece of Austin.
His most famous victory came in 2004, following the last time Texas Republicans engaged in mid-decade redistricting by enacting their infamous "DeLaymander." Doggett nevertheless managed to win renomination in the revamped 25th District, a heavily Latino constituency that snaked from Austin all the way to the border with Mexico.
Casar's role as leader of the Progressive Caucus, though, gives him the means to tap into national support for a competitive race. Such a campaign would also take place at a time when older Democrats nationwide are facing widespread pressure to step aside—a movement that even an institution like Doggett has had no choice but to recognize.
This battle is still only hypothetical, however, and Democrats in the Texas House have continued to fight the new map by indefinitely leaving the state—as well as their full-time jobs and their families—in part to avert precisely this sort of conflict between members of the state's congressional delegation.
Just below, you’ll find our Redistricting Roundup section, which we felt compelled to revive this week thanks to the GOP’s escalating efforts to pass new gerrymanders. If you want to stay up to date on all the latest redistricting news, make sure to check out this section every day. And if you appreciate our coverage, we hope you’ll consider upgrading to a paid subscription!
Redistricting Roundup
FL Redistricting
Are Florida Republicans on the same page when it comes to passing a new gerrymandered congressional map? Perhaps not.
Gov. Ron DeSantis, whose relationship with fellow Republicans in the legislature might best be described as "combustible," told reporters on Monday morning that "wasn't privy to anything going on" with regard to state House Speaker Daniel Perez's newly formed redistricting committee.
In a further sign of their lack of alignment, the two men have offered differing pretexts for wanting to revisit Florida's map. DeSantis has claimed certain districts are "malapportioned," while Perez has suggested he believes some might be impermissible racial gerrymanders. (DeSantis echoed that latter claim on Monday.)
DeSantis has for years warred with Republican lawmakers and had often come out on top, but following his failed presidential bid and mindful of his lame-duck status, many in his party have grown emboldened in their efforts to sideline the governor. Earlier this year, after Donald Trump endorsed a DeSantis rival to succeed him as Florida's top leader, one GOP legislator went so far as to declare the governor's clout "officially nonexistent."
OR Redistricting
Oregon is one of just three blue states where Democrats could target a Republican-held seat without having to worry about a redistricting commission, but its governor doesn't seem enthused about the idea.
"The Governor is tracking what other states are doing and currently has no plans to redistrict in Oregon," Democrat Tina Kotek's office told Oregon Public Broadcasting in a recent email. "Oregon redistricting is controlled by statute and redistricting is a once a decade process."
Governors
MI-Gov
Karla Wagner, who leads an organization that wants to abolish property taxes in Michigan, said last week that she was joining the Republican primary for governor.
In an announcement video, Wager declared that she was running mainly to promote her group's proposed constitutional amendment, which organizers are trying to get on next year's ballot after failing to do so in 2024.
Wagner, however, does have the distinction of being the only Republican woman running to replace Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who is termed out. The GOP primary field also consists of former Attorney General Mike Cox, Rep. John James, former state House Speaker Tom Leonard, and state Senate Minority Leader Aric Nesbitt.
MN-Gov
A recent story from The Minnesota Star Tribune included state Rep. Jim Nash on a list of Republicans interested in running for governor, though Nash himself doesn't appear to have said anything publicly about a potential campaign.
The GOP field currently consists of former state Sen. Scott Jensen, who lost the 2022 general election to Democratic incumbent Tim Walz, and businessman Kendall Qualls, who unsuccessfully sought the Republican nomination that year. Walz has yet to announce if he'll seek a third term.
SC-Gov
Attorney Mullins McLeod on Monday became the first Democrat to announce a campaign for governor of South Carolina, a launch that comes three months after he was arrested in Charleston for allegedly screaming while wearing only his underwear and shoes on a downtown street corner.
The Post & Courier's Nick Reynolds writes that McLeod, who waged an abortive bid for the Democratic nomination in 2010, is capable of doing some self-funding. McLeod, for his part, repeatedly used the words "unlawful arrest" in his interview with Reynolds to describe what happened in May, but he claimed that he was unable to explain more.
McLeod currently has the Democratic side to himself, but state Rep. Jermaine Johnson announced in early June that he was forming an exploratory committee for his own potential bid. Johnson responded to McLeod's entry by telling Reynolds, "My decision will not be based on anyone else’s intention to seek the seat as well."
The GOP primary to replace term-limited Gov. Henry McMaster, meanwhile, is as crowded as it is ugly. The eventual Republican nominee will be the frontrunner to replace McMaster in this conservative state, though Democrats are hoping voters will want change after more than two decades of GOP governors.
House
IL-07
Emergency physician Thomas Fisher announced Tuesday morning that he was joining the busy Democratic primary to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Danny Davis in Illinois' 7th District.
"I’m running for Congress because I’ve watched too many people suffer from preventable policy failures," Fisher said in a statement provided to The Downballot. "Healthcare, housing, and safety aren’t luxuries. They’re the foundation for thriving. And right now, too many of our neighbors are being denied that chance."
Fisher, who served as a White House Fellow during the Obama administration, also attracted attention in 2022 when he published a memoir titled "The Emergency: A Year of Healing and Heartbreak in a Chicago ER" following the outbreak of the COVID pandemic. Time Magazine included the tome in its list of "The 100 Must-Read Books of 2022," while the New York Times' review characterized it as "a busy book about a busy man."
IN-04
State Rep. Craig Haggard says he'll seek the Republican nomination for Indiana's conservative 4th District, whether or not GOP Rep. Jim Baird runs again.
Haggard, in an interview with the Indianapolis Star, predicted that either the congressman or his son, state Rep. Beau Baird, would be his opponent. He told the paper, "I believe I’ll be running against a Baird. Which Baird? I don’t know."
Political observers have for years speculated that the congressman, who is now 80, would retire after laying the groundwork for his son to replace him. The elder Baird only intensified that chatter last month when his government office sent out a mailer paid for by taxpayers that showed father and son together.
NY-22
Onondaga County Legislator Julie Abbott tells the Post-Standard she would not challenge Democratic Rep. John Mannion, a decision reporter Mark Weiner says deprives Republicans of a "top recruit."
Mannion's only GOP foe is former Assemblyman John Salka, but Salka had a paltry $2,000 available to spend at the end of June.
Republicans, though, will likely have a tough time contesting New York's 22nd District, which is home to Syracuse, even if they land a strong contender. Kamala Harris prevailed 54-46 last year, according to calculations by The Downballot, while Mannion unseated GOP Rep. Brandon Williams 55-45.
TX-23
Gun manufacturer Brandon Herrera unexpectedly announced Saturday that he would seek a rematch against Rep. Tony Gonzales, who narrowly fended him off in last year's Republican primary for Texas' red-leaning 23rd District.
Herrera, a far-right "gunfluencer" who has over 4 million subscribers on his YouTube channel called "The AK Guy," argued last cycle that Gonzales was insufficiently conservative and had voted "to track you and your family's vaccine status."
The challenger also portrayed Gonzales, whose sprawling West Texas constituency includes a considerable length of the U.S. border with Mexico, as weak on immigration enforcement. He was also happy to pile on after the state Republican Party censured the incumbent for, among other things, voting for gun-safety legislation after the 2022 Uvalde school shooting, which took place in his district.
Gonzales led Herrera 45-25 in the five-person primary, which was just a few points below the majority he needed to win renomination outright. But while Gonzales, who is a close ally of the House GOP leadership, enjoyed a massive financial advantage over Herrera, their subsequent runoff almost ended the congressman's career.
Gonzales, who dubbed Herrera "a known neo-Nazi," highlighted Herrera's mockery of the Holocaust, veteran suicide, and even Barron Trump, and pointed out that he had only relocated to Texas from North Carolina a few years earlier. But Herrera, who had the support of the hardline House Freedom Caucus, held Gonzales to a tight 50.6 to 49.4 win—a margin of 354 votes.
Herrera tweeted in June that his first campaign "was probably the worst 9 months of my life lol," but that sentiment evidently isn't stopping him from trying again. The challenger kicked off his second effort on Saturday with a 10-minute video in which he predicted the political establishment would seek to undermine him because he's someone "they know they can't control."
Just like last time, though, Herrera is not Gonzales' only primary foe. Rancher Susan Storey Rubio began running in June against an incumbent she dubbed a "spineless moderate."
Storey Rubio ended June with more than $400,000 in the bank, largely due to self-funding. Gonzales, though, had close to $2.4 million stockpiled to defend himself.
The current incarnation of the 23rd District favored Donald Trump 57-42, but those toplines wouldn't change at all if the GOP passes its proposed gerrymander. Gonzales also represents 80% of the residents of the hypothetical new 23rd.
Legislatures
MI State Senate
A group of voters in Michigan's swingy 35th Senate District are now suing Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer in state court over her refusal to call a special election in the more than seven months since the seat first became vacant.
The suit, which was filed Sunday, was filed by a lawyer with a long history of bringing lawsuits against local governments.
Both parties began the year anticipating a closely watched special election to replace Democrat Kristen McDonald Rivet, who resigned halfway through her four-year term following her election to Congress in 2024. Calculations by The Downballot show that Kamala Harris carried the 35th District by just a 50-49 margin, a touch closer than Joe Biden's 51-48 win here four years before.
McDonald Rivet's departure left Democrats with a 19-18 edge in the 38-member Senate, so a GOP pickup would result in a deadlock.
In such a scenario, Democratic Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist would be able to break any ties, but observers believe that a single Republican senator could thwart him by just abstaining—a tactic that would prevent Democrats from obtaining the requisite majority needed to pass a bill without creating a tie for Gilchrist to break.
While Democrats' strong showing in special elections across the nation has given them reason to be optimistic about their prospects in the 35th District, Whitmer has declined to call one. State law empowers the governor, and the governor alone, to issue a writ for a special election, but it doesn't specify a deadline by which she must do so.
The governor has provided no explanation for the holdup, nor has she indicated when—or even if—she plans to take action. The Michigan Information & Research Service Inc. noted in June that no Michigan governor has taken so long to act on a vacant seat since the legislature became a full-time body in the 1960s.
Plaintiffs, though, argue that Whitmer has a "clear and mandatory requirement" to issue a writ, and that she has "no authority to indefinitely delay or withhold it."
No matter what happens, the entire Senate will be up again next year. The state House, which Republicans flipped in 2024, will also be on the ballot for new two-year terms.
Prosecutors & Sheriffs
Philadelphia, PA District Attorney
Former Judge Patrick Dugan announced Saturday that he would accept the Republican nomination to challenge Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner in the fall general election, despite claiming before losing the Democratic primary in May that he would do no such thing.
The new GOP nominee will, however, face a near-impossible task in a loyally blue city that Kamala Harris carried 79-20 last year. Philly Republicans last won the district attorney's office in 1985, when Ron Castille won his second and final term.
Krasner, who is one of the most prominent criminal justice reformers in the country, scored a 61-39 victory in May against Dugan, who unsuccessfully argued the incumbent's criminal justice reforms had undermined public safety. Dugan, though, won the GOP nomination that night through a write-in campaign with the help of local Republican leaders, who didn't field a candidate.
Dugan didn't commit to running as a Republican until this weekend, a decision that came just two days before the deadline for him to make up his mind.
Correction: This piece incorrectly said that Philadelphia last elected a Republican district attorney in 1985 when Ron Castille won his only term. Castille won his first term in 1985 and reelection in 1989.
Sherrod Brown is in!https://bsky.app/profile/mcpli.bsky.social/post/3lw7kxu3msc2s
NYC Mayor Siena:
Mamdani 44
Cuomo 25
Sliwa 12
Adams 7
https://sri.siena.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/SNY0825-Crosstabs.pdf