Canadian election on Monday. Still looking like a Liberal majority although perhaps not as robust as it did a couple of weeks ago. A 3 or 4 point win. 180-190 seats (172) is majority.
Canadian election on Monday. Still looking like a Liberal majority although perhaps not as robust as it did a couple of weeks ago. A 3 or 4 point win. 180-190 seats (172) is majority.
I think the NDP has a more fundamental crisis of purpose. They were still retaining 20 percent of the vote because of Trudeau's unpopularity. As soon as he resigned, their vote share started to collapse. Canadian Liberals have also shifted to the left over the last decade, are overall centre-left and Canadian Conservatives are now preferred by working class voters who previously voted NDP and are much more moderate than Republicans. Canadians also already have what we consider progressive here like paid family leave, progressive taxation universal healthcare, points based immigration system etc.
Unless there is a reform of the FPTP electoral system which the two dominant parties would never agree to, I don't see them regaining electoral relevance anytime soon.
"Canadians also already have what we consider progressive here like paid family leave, progressive taxation universal healthcare…"
Which is why I think it’s far more likely that several American states would love to become the 11th, 12th and 13th Canadian province – than Canada wanting to become the 51state.
The current incarnation of the Conservative Party is not much more moderate than the Republican. Under Poilievre’s leadership, they’re largely imitative of the Republicans.
Nor is Canada’s taxation more progressive in than the U.S. They have a national sales tax and no inheritance tax.
They are against climate tax but accept climate change and subsidies to tackle it, support abortion and lgb rights, don't discuss trans rights, support UHC and the welfare state, are pro immigration but limited to the levels of housebuilding in the country. The similarity with Republicans is in defunding public broadcasting, cutting taxes and regulations along with some limited welfare cuts but even they believe in balancing the budget. The overton window in Canada is left to USA.
the Conservatives promised to "put an end to the imposition of woke ideology in the federal civil service and in the allocation of federal funds for university research."
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has often stated his opposition to things he considers "woke" and has regularly used the word to criticize Liberal policies.
Last month, the Canadian Association of University Teachers expressed concern about how the Conservative Party's commitment could impact federal funding for research.
Fortunately, in a parliamentary system the head of state and head of government are separate. So you don’t have, when the president does it, it’s not illegal.
They are against climate tax but accept climate change and subsidies to tackle it, support abortion and lgb rights, don't discuss trans rights, support UHC and the welfare state, are pro immigration but limited to the levels of housebuilding in the country. The similarity with Republicans is in defunding public broadcasting, cutting taxes and regulations along with some limited welfare cuts but even they believe in balancing the budget. The overton window in Canada is way left.
The idea of an inheritance tax in Canada has never gained steam because it would encourage more wealthy Canadians to emigrate to the USA. Red States in America are the worst offenders of sales taxes.
Could it? Yes, absolutely, Americanizing politics is definitely happening (though not nearly to the degree of the US clusterfuck). Will it? Depends on a lot of things. Parties collapse, splinter, reform and shift fairly regularly in Canada at the provincial and federal level.
The Wild Rose was a party in Alberta that had 25% of the seats provincially in 2015, but now it doesn’t exist. The centre-right party BC Liberals, changed their name to BC United in 2023 and BC Conservatives in 2024. Federally the PPC party didn’t exist in 2015, formed in 2018 (think MAGA) and got 5% of the vote (but 0 seats) in 2019. It’s way more fluid in Canada than any set partisan loyalty.
But the main reason the other left party vote (NDP, Green, BQ) vote has collapsed this election is to stop Poilievre from becoming prime minister and to give Carney a strong mandate to take on the bully in the White House. Strategic voting is extremely common and those voters change their preferences from election to election.
Yeah, the Liberals are still ahead in the polls. Any polling lead for them is a very good sign for a Liberal victory, since the Conservatives actually won the popular vote in both the 2019 and 2021 elections but the Liberals still won more seats both times. The Conservative vote is inefficiently distributed (it's heavily concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan), while Liberals have a strong presence in the all-important Toronto suburbs and their concentration in cities is prevented by the NDP and Greens picking up some progressive voters there (but not enough to prevent the Liberals from winning most urban seats).
There’s been a lot of panic/fear from Conservatives this last week or two from the data they’ve been getting that they’ve shifted resources away from offensive opportunities and towards defensive seats they should absolutely be holding. There’s even whispers Poilievre could lose his seat in Carleton, which he won 52-32 in 2021 and has been held by the Conservatives every election since 1867 except for 1962 when Liberals held it for 2 years.
Now whether this is actually really happening or not TBD, but polling in Ontario is a bloodbath for Conservatives right now as well as Quebec and they’re both by far the biggest prizes with the most seats to win. If polling of those two provinces winds up anywhere close to reality after the votes are tallied, Conservatives have no path to power.
A late breaking news item making the rounds is Bloc Québécois leader Blanchet saying Canada is an artificial country, drawing condemnation from all political party leaders and many provincial ones. The BQ is 10 points behind Liberals in that province, so if their support craters or gains (hard to tell what will happen honestly, could see it go either way), it would have a massive effect on the number of seats Liberals win.
I mean, Blanchet isn't really wrong-most countries are artificial, Canada included, but the leader of a major political party shouldn't say that publicly-unless Blanchet is willing to unilaterally declare Quebec Independence, of course.
All countries are artificial, but some are more artificial than others...
Pretty much every country is a "mixed multitude" as the bible describes the Exodus from Egypt, but some have a unfiying national story, like the Exodus from Egypt, while others are just some lines drawn in a smoked-filled room at a 19th century peace conference.
Unity based on ethnicity or religion is very common for nations, though, so what your or I as Americans might consider important is not at all necessarily the most common impetus for nation-forming nor the most common cause for national unity. The U.S. is unusual to the extent that it is based on an idea or philosophy and not purely on Anglo white supremacy.
Even within Europe, having a national idea of some sort tends to be better than just an ethnic state. Take France for example: "Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité" is a much more unifying message then "we're a bunch of people who speak a vaguely similar language and have some shared culture and history." That's how you get a Yugoslavia.
He couldn't. The PQ would be the ones to call a new referendum, which I don't think is something they're campaigning on, and they would have to win the provincial elections next year first.
Bloc Québécois (BQ) is the organization that contests federal elections while Parti Québécois (PQ) contests provincial elections. Politicians will move between the two, including Blanchet, but they are nominally separate orgs.
Canadian election on Monday. Still looking like a Liberal majority although perhaps not as robust as it did a couple of weeks ago. A 3 or 4 point win. 180-190 seats (172) is majority.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2025_Canadian_federal_election
https://bsky.app/profile/canadianpolling.bsky.social/post/3lnnwccc3a22x
The Canadian third party NDP is finished in the polls. Canada is going to become a two party state lol.
For this election. Things can change very quickly in Canadian politics. As we saw in . . . this election.
Fortunately their politics are less ossified than ours.
I think the NDP has a more fundamental crisis of purpose. They were still retaining 20 percent of the vote because of Trudeau's unpopularity. As soon as he resigned, their vote share started to collapse. Canadian Liberals have also shifted to the left over the last decade, are overall centre-left and Canadian Conservatives are now preferred by working class voters who previously voted NDP and are much more moderate than Republicans. Canadians also already have what we consider progressive here like paid family leave, progressive taxation universal healthcare, points based immigration system etc.
Unless there is a reform of the FPTP electoral system which the two dominant parties would never agree to, I don't see them regaining electoral relevance anytime soon.
"Canadians also already have what we consider progressive here like paid family leave, progressive taxation universal healthcare…"
Which is why I think it’s far more likely that several American states would love to become the 11th, 12th and 13th Canadian province – than Canada wanting to become the 51state.
I would love for New York to be a province of Canada!
The current incarnation of the Conservative Party is not much more moderate than the Republican. Under Poilievre’s leadership, they’re largely imitative of the Republicans.
Nor is Canada’s taxation more progressive in than the U.S. They have a national sales tax and no inheritance tax.
Define "more moderate." Does that include not being dictatorial or Nazi-adjacent?
They are against climate tax but accept climate change and subsidies to tackle it, support abortion and lgb rights, don't discuss trans rights, support UHC and the welfare state, are pro immigration but limited to the levels of housebuilding in the country. The similarity with Republicans is in defunding public broadcasting, cutting taxes and regulations along with some limited welfare cuts but even they believe in balancing the budget. The overton window in Canada is left to USA.
An article for reference:
https://www.vox.com/politics/24140480/canada-pierre-poilievre-conservative-party-populism-democracy
the Conservatives promised to "put an end to the imposition of woke ideology in the federal civil service and in the allocation of federal funds for university research."
Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre has often stated his opposition to things he considers "woke" and has regularly used the word to criticize Liberal policies.
Last month, the Canadian Association of University Teachers expressed concern about how the Conservative Party's commitment could impact federal funding for research.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/conservative-woke-platform-oversight-1.7516315
Fortunately, in a parliamentary system the head of state and head of government are separate. So you don’t have, when the president does it, it’s not illegal.
Just saying, the PM and president were supposed to be separate under Russia's constitution. There are ways to turn anything into a dictatorship.
They are against climate tax but accept climate change and subsidies to tackle it, support abortion and lgb rights, don't discuss trans rights, support UHC and the welfare state, are pro immigration but limited to the levels of housebuilding in the country. The similarity with Republicans is in defunding public broadcasting, cutting taxes and regulations along with some limited welfare cuts but even they believe in balancing the budget. The overton window in Canada is way left.
The idea of an inheritance tax in Canada has never gained steam because it would encourage more wealthy Canadians to emigrate to the USA. Red States in America are the worst offenders of sales taxes.
An article for reference: https://www.vox.com/politics/24140480/canada-pierre-poilievre-conservative-party-populism-democracy
I doubt it, progressives are migrating to liberals to prevent bend the knee PP. Next election will probably be different.
Could it? Yes, absolutely, Americanizing politics is definitely happening (though not nearly to the degree of the US clusterfuck). Will it? Depends on a lot of things. Parties collapse, splinter, reform and shift fairly regularly in Canada at the provincial and federal level.
The Wild Rose was a party in Alberta that had 25% of the seats provincially in 2015, but now it doesn’t exist. The centre-right party BC Liberals, changed their name to BC United in 2023 and BC Conservatives in 2024. Federally the PPC party didn’t exist in 2015, formed in 2018 (think MAGA) and got 5% of the vote (but 0 seats) in 2019. It’s way more fluid in Canada than any set partisan loyalty.
But the main reason the other left party vote (NDP, Green, BQ) vote has collapsed this election is to stop Poilievre from becoming prime minister and to give Carney a strong mandate to take on the bully in the White House. Strategic voting is extremely common and those voters change their preferences from election to election.
Yeah, the Liberals are still ahead in the polls. Any polling lead for them is a very good sign for a Liberal victory, since the Conservatives actually won the popular vote in both the 2019 and 2021 elections but the Liberals still won more seats both times. The Conservative vote is inefficiently distributed (it's heavily concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan), while Liberals have a strong presence in the all-important Toronto suburbs and their concentration in cities is prevented by the NDP and Greens picking up some progressive voters there (but not enough to prevent the Liberals from winning most urban seats).
I have not seen a single constructive Green party other than those in Germany and Australia.
Sadly, some people like to vote for unconstructive parties. We've seen this here in America at times as well.
There’s been a lot of panic/fear from Conservatives this last week or two from the data they’ve been getting that they’ve shifted resources away from offensive opportunities and towards defensive seats they should absolutely be holding. There’s even whispers Poilievre could lose his seat in Carleton, which he won 52-32 in 2021 and has been held by the Conservatives every election since 1867 except for 1962 when Liberals held it for 2 years.
Now whether this is actually really happening or not TBD, but polling in Ontario is a bloodbath for Conservatives right now as well as Quebec and they’re both by far the biggest prizes with the most seats to win. If polling of those two provinces winds up anywhere close to reality after the votes are tallied, Conservatives have no path to power.
A late breaking news item making the rounds is Bloc Québécois leader Blanchet saying Canada is an artificial country, drawing condemnation from all political party leaders and many provincial ones. The BQ is 10 points behind Liberals in that province, so if their support craters or gains (hard to tell what will happen honestly, could see it go either way), it would have a massive effect on the number of seats Liberals win.
PP losing in Carleton would be an absolutely hilarious outcome.
I doubt he will, but it would still be hilarious
I mean, Blanchet isn't really wrong-most countries are artificial, Canada included, but the leader of a major political party shouldn't say that publicly-unless Blanchet is willing to unilaterally declare Quebec Independence, of course.
I mean, all countries are artificial, but I don't think that's the point Blanchet meant to make.
All countries are artificial, but some are more artificial than others...
Pretty much every country is a "mixed multitude" as the bible describes the Exodus from Egypt, but some have a unfiying national story, like the Exodus from Egypt, while others are just some lines drawn in a smoked-filled room at a 19th century peace conference.
How a country starts its existence doesn't necessarily make it more or less real afterwards.
But it may make it more politically cohesive.
Is more important that there's a unifying narrative though than any "real" point of unity, especially not one based on ethnic or religious identities.
Sure, narratives help, and Quebec definitely has one.
Unity based on ethnicity or religion is very common for nations, though, so what your or I as Americans might consider important is not at all necessarily the most common impetus for nation-forming nor the most common cause for national unity. The U.S. is unusual to the extent that it is based on an idea or philosophy and not purely on Anglo white supremacy.
Even within Europe, having a national idea of some sort tends to be better than just an ethnic state. Take France for example: "Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité" is a much more unifying message then "we're a bunch of people who speak a vaguely similar language and have some shared culture and history." That's how you get a Yugoslavia.
Considering what party he’s from he might want to. Though that “dream” more or less died with Jacques Parizeau
He couldn't. The PQ would be the ones to call a new referendum, which I don't think is something they're campaigning on, and they would have to win the provincial elections next year first.
Bloc Québécois (BQ) is the organization that contests federal elections while Parti Québécois (PQ) contests provincial elections. Politicians will move between the two, including Blanchet, but they are nominally separate orgs.