Yeah, the Liberals are still ahead in the polls. Any polling lead for them is a very good sign for a Liberal victory, since the Conservatives actually won the popular vote in both the 2019 and 2021 elections but the Liberals still won more seats both times. The Conservative vote is inefficiently distributed (it's heavily concentrated in …
Yeah, the Liberals are still ahead in the polls. Any polling lead for them is a very good sign for a Liberal victory, since the Conservatives actually won the popular vote in both the 2019 and 2021 elections but the Liberals still won more seats both times. The Conservative vote is inefficiently distributed (it's heavily concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan), while Liberals have a strong presence in the all-important Toronto suburbs and their concentration in cities is prevented by the NDP and Greens picking up some progressive voters there (but not enough to prevent the Liberals from winning most urban seats).
There’s been a lot of panic/fear from Conservatives this last week or two from the data they’ve been getting that they’ve shifted resources away from offensive opportunities and towards defensive seats they should absolutely be holding. There’s even whispers Poilievre could lose his seat in Carleton, which he won 52-32 in 2021 and has been held by the Conservatives every election since 1867 except for 1962 when Liberals held it for 2 years.
Now whether this is actually really happening or not TBD, but polling in Ontario is a bloodbath for Conservatives right now as well as Quebec and they’re both by far the biggest prizes with the most seats to win. If polling of those two provinces winds up anywhere close to reality after the votes are tallied, Conservatives have no path to power.
A late breaking news item making the rounds is Bloc Québécois leader Blanchet saying Canada is an artificial country, drawing condemnation from all political party leaders and many provincial ones. The BQ is 10 points behind Liberals in that province, so if their support craters or gains (hard to tell what will happen honestly, could see it go either way), it would have a massive effect on the number of seats Liberals win.
I mean, Blanchet isn't really wrong-most countries are artificial, Canada included, but the leader of a major political party shouldn't say that publicly-unless Blanchet is willing to unilaterally declare Quebec Independence, of course.
All countries are artificial, but some are more artificial than others...
Pretty much every country is a "mixed multitude" as the bible describes the Exodus from Egypt, but some have a unfiying national story, like the Exodus from Egypt, while others are just some lines drawn in a smoked-filled room at a 19th century peace conference.
Unity based on ethnicity or religion is very common for nations, though, so what your or I as Americans might consider important is not at all necessarily the most common impetus for nation-forming nor the most common cause for national unity. The U.S. is unusual to the extent that it is based on an idea or philosophy and not purely on Anglo white supremacy.
Even within Europe, having a national idea of some sort tends to be better than just an ethnic state. Take France for example: "Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité" is a much more unifying message then "we're a bunch of people who speak a vaguely similar language and have some shared culture and history." That's how you get a Yugoslavia.
He couldn't. The PQ would be the ones to call a new referendum, which I don't think is something they're campaigning on, and they would have to win the provincial elections next year first.
Bloc Québécois (BQ) is the organization that contests federal elections while Parti Québécois (PQ) contests provincial elections. Politicians will move between the two, including Blanchet, but they are nominally separate orgs.
Yeah, the Liberals are still ahead in the polls. Any polling lead for them is a very good sign for a Liberal victory, since the Conservatives actually won the popular vote in both the 2019 and 2021 elections but the Liberals still won more seats both times. The Conservative vote is inefficiently distributed (it's heavily concentrated in Alberta and Saskatchewan), while Liberals have a strong presence in the all-important Toronto suburbs and their concentration in cities is prevented by the NDP and Greens picking up some progressive voters there (but not enough to prevent the Liberals from winning most urban seats).
I have not seen a single constructive Green party other than those in Germany and Australia.
Sadly, some people like to vote for unconstructive parties. We've seen this here in America at times as well.
There’s been a lot of panic/fear from Conservatives this last week or two from the data they’ve been getting that they’ve shifted resources away from offensive opportunities and towards defensive seats they should absolutely be holding. There’s even whispers Poilievre could lose his seat in Carleton, which he won 52-32 in 2021 and has been held by the Conservatives every election since 1867 except for 1962 when Liberals held it for 2 years.
Now whether this is actually really happening or not TBD, but polling in Ontario is a bloodbath for Conservatives right now as well as Quebec and they’re both by far the biggest prizes with the most seats to win. If polling of those two provinces winds up anywhere close to reality after the votes are tallied, Conservatives have no path to power.
A late breaking news item making the rounds is Bloc Québécois leader Blanchet saying Canada is an artificial country, drawing condemnation from all political party leaders and many provincial ones. The BQ is 10 points behind Liberals in that province, so if their support craters or gains (hard to tell what will happen honestly, could see it go either way), it would have a massive effect on the number of seats Liberals win.
PP losing in Carleton would be an absolutely hilarious outcome.
I doubt he will, but it would still be hilarious
I mean, Blanchet isn't really wrong-most countries are artificial, Canada included, but the leader of a major political party shouldn't say that publicly-unless Blanchet is willing to unilaterally declare Quebec Independence, of course.
I mean, all countries are artificial, but I don't think that's the point Blanchet meant to make.
All countries are artificial, but some are more artificial than others...
Pretty much every country is a "mixed multitude" as the bible describes the Exodus from Egypt, but some have a unfiying national story, like the Exodus from Egypt, while others are just some lines drawn in a smoked-filled room at a 19th century peace conference.
How a country starts its existence doesn't necessarily make it more or less real afterwards.
But it may make it more politically cohesive.
Is more important that there's a unifying narrative though than any "real" point of unity, especially not one based on ethnic or religious identities.
Sure, narratives help, and Quebec definitely has one.
Unity based on ethnicity or religion is very common for nations, though, so what your or I as Americans might consider important is not at all necessarily the most common impetus for nation-forming nor the most common cause for national unity. The U.S. is unusual to the extent that it is based on an idea or philosophy and not purely on Anglo white supremacy.
Even within Europe, having a national idea of some sort tends to be better than just an ethnic state. Take France for example: "Liberté, Egalité, Fraternité" is a much more unifying message then "we're a bunch of people who speak a vaguely similar language and have some shared culture and history." That's how you get a Yugoslavia.
Considering what party he’s from he might want to. Though that “dream” more or less died with Jacques Parizeau
He couldn't. The PQ would be the ones to call a new referendum, which I don't think is something they're campaigning on, and they would have to win the provincial elections next year first.
Bloc Québécois (BQ) is the organization that contests federal elections while Parti Québécois (PQ) contests provincial elections. Politicians will move between the two, including Blanchet, but they are nominally separate orgs.