"Even though Democrats still have a 115,000 voter registration edge over Republicans, today marks the first day in NC history where Republicans have more active voters than Democrats (by 3,371).
The lead in active voters is a big reason why Republicans are expected to outvote Democrats this year in North Carolina.
"Even though Democrats still have a 115,000 voter registration edge over Republicans, today marks the first day in NC history where Republicans have more active voters than Democrats (by 3,371).
The lead in active voters is a big reason why Republicans are expected to outvote Democrats this year in North Carolina.
When we look at the absentee requests, demographic and party shares have leveled off to the point where we're no longer going to move much in one direction. The independent request share will rise slightly as the Democratic request share drops, and Republicans will likely end up where they are now.
On the returns side, we're still on track to finish with about a Democratic +8% return edge on Republicans, but returns have been slow and will pick up the pace when early in-person voting starts and voters can drop off their ballots."
FACT: 75 of 80 planned early voting sites in Western NC will be open throughout the early voting period, from Oct. 17 through Nov. 2. That is remarkable, considering Helene's destruction.
And 4 of the 5 that were lost are in Buncombe County, which will still have TEN early voting sites.
2020 and 2022. Both elections registered Rs had higher turnout than Ds, by a lot in 2022. Hence more Ds (long term residents) marked as inactive. Esp those on the coastal plains.
The downside: the inner coastal plains still have a substantial chunk registered White Democrats being Dixiecrats. Wilmington area saw some population explosion of over 10%, if anything the newcomers is more or less even. OBX counties also have 10% increase, (population centers of them are actually inside Albemarle /Pamlico sound, some people call them inner banks. I don’t like the name) and the newcomers there overwhelmingly Republican.
The upside, a lot of transplants to the suburb/exurbs of Triangle and Charlotte, registered as NPAs but quite D leaning. Asheville and surrounding suburbs are getting bluer.
My guess is today’s nominal 120k D registration edge worth more than the 400k+ edge four years ago.
I would say Rs have a teeny tiny voter base edge there, much smaller than 4 years ago. D base voters in the suburbs generally have slightly higher turnout than average, but the Black voters in city center and the east plains usually have lower than average turnout.
So overall I would say, NC polls are meaningless now. Whoever wins the turnout wins it. The margin may be down to how Asheville or “inner banks” vote.
BTW, the mail votes banked so far, of course a lot from suburbs and quite blue right now. The red coasts are actually much bluer at this moment than they would be finally, with Ds there return ballots early.
The inner coastal plains/Black belt’s turnout is slow and looks very red. A lot of Dixiecrats, and Black voters are not into VBM that much.
So I don’t know much to say, other than that we have to see some in person voting to know the turnout pattern.
North Carolina
"Even though Democrats still have a 115,000 voter registration edge over Republicans, today marks the first day in NC history where Republicans have more active voters than Democrats (by 3,371).
The lead in active voters is a big reason why Republicans are expected to outvote Democrats this year in North Carolina.
When we look at the absentee requests, demographic and party shares have leveled off to the point where we're no longer going to move much in one direction. The independent request share will rise slightly as the Democratic request share drops, and Republicans will likely end up where they are now.
On the returns side, we're still on track to finish with about a Democratic +8% return edge on Republicans, but returns have been slow and will pick up the pace when early in-person voting starts and voters can drop off their ballots."
FACT: 75 of 80 planned early voting sites in Western NC will be open throughout the early voting period, from Oct. 17 through Nov. 2. That is remarkable, considering Helene's destruction.
And 4 of the 5 that were lost are in Buncombe County, which will still have TEN early voting sites.
I think we all know that many progressive voters, especially younger ones, tend to be independents.
What’s considered an “active voter”?
An inactive voter is a voter who the county board of elections has not had any contact with for two federal election cycles.
2020 and 2022. Both elections registered Rs had higher turnout than Ds, by a lot in 2022. Hence more Ds (long term residents) marked as inactive. Esp those on the coastal plains.
All inactive voters have plenty of notice to get back on the rolls; laziness is always a factor
The downside: the inner coastal plains still have a substantial chunk registered White Democrats being Dixiecrats. Wilmington area saw some population explosion of over 10%, if anything the newcomers is more or less even. OBX counties also have 10% increase, (population centers of them are actually inside Albemarle /Pamlico sound, some people call them inner banks. I don’t like the name) and the newcomers there overwhelmingly Republican.
The upside, a lot of transplants to the suburb/exurbs of Triangle and Charlotte, registered as NPAs but quite D leaning. Asheville and surrounding suburbs are getting bluer.
My guess is today’s nominal 120k D registration edge worth more than the 400k+ edge four years ago.
If you are correct(I don't doubt it); then NC is 50\50 with our side holding a better gotv hand; would you agree?
Yes.
I would say Rs have a teeny tiny voter base edge there, much smaller than 4 years ago. D base voters in the suburbs generally have slightly higher turnout than average, but the Black voters in city center and the east plains usually have lower than average turnout.
So overall I would say, NC polls are meaningless now. Whoever wins the turnout wins it. The margin may be down to how Asheville or “inner banks” vote.
BTW, the mail votes banked so far, of course a lot from suburbs and quite blue right now. The red coasts are actually much bluer at this moment than they would be finally, with Ds there return ballots early.
The inner coastal plains/Black belt’s turnout is slow and looks very red. A lot of Dixiecrats, and Black voters are not into VBM that much.
So I don’t know much to say, other than that we have to see some in person voting to know the turnout pattern.
What is obx?
Outer banks?
That makes sense.