The downside: the inner coastal plains still have a substantial chunk registered White Democrats being Dixiecrats. Wilmington area saw some population explosion of over 10%, if anything the newcomers is more or less even. OBX counties also have 10% increase, (population centers of them are actually inside Albemarle /Pamlico sound, some p…
The downside: the inner coastal plains still have a substantial chunk registered White Democrats being Dixiecrats. Wilmington area saw some population explosion of over 10%, if anything the newcomers is more or less even. OBX counties also have 10% increase, (population centers of them are actually inside Albemarle /Pamlico sound, some people call them inner banks. I don’t like the name) and the newcomers there overwhelmingly Republican.
The upside, a lot of transplants to the suburb/exurbs of Triangle and Charlotte, registered as NPAs but quite D leaning. Asheville and surrounding suburbs are getting bluer.
My guess is today’s nominal 120k D registration edge worth more than the 400k+ edge four years ago.
I would say Rs have a teeny tiny voter base edge there, much smaller than 4 years ago. D base voters in the suburbs generally have slightly higher turnout than average, but the Black voters in city center and the east plains usually have lower than average turnout.
So overall I would say, NC polls are meaningless now. Whoever wins the turnout wins it. The margin may be down to how Asheville or “inner banks” vote.
BTW, the mail votes banked so far, of course a lot from suburbs and quite blue right now. The red coasts are actually much bluer at this moment than they would be finally, with Ds there return ballots early.
The inner coastal plains/Black belt’s turnout is slow and looks very red. A lot of Dixiecrats, and Black voters are not into VBM that much.
So I don’t know much to say, other than that we have to see some in person voting to know the turnout pattern.
The downside: the inner coastal plains still have a substantial chunk registered White Democrats being Dixiecrats. Wilmington area saw some population explosion of over 10%, if anything the newcomers is more or less even. OBX counties also have 10% increase, (population centers of them are actually inside Albemarle /Pamlico sound, some people call them inner banks. I don’t like the name) and the newcomers there overwhelmingly Republican.
The upside, a lot of transplants to the suburb/exurbs of Triangle and Charlotte, registered as NPAs but quite D leaning. Asheville and surrounding suburbs are getting bluer.
My guess is today’s nominal 120k D registration edge worth more than the 400k+ edge four years ago.
If you are correct(I don't doubt it); then NC is 50\50 with our side holding a better gotv hand; would you agree?
Yes.
I would say Rs have a teeny tiny voter base edge there, much smaller than 4 years ago. D base voters in the suburbs generally have slightly higher turnout than average, but the Black voters in city center and the east plains usually have lower than average turnout.
So overall I would say, NC polls are meaningless now. Whoever wins the turnout wins it. The margin may be down to how Asheville or “inner banks” vote.
BTW, the mail votes banked so far, of course a lot from suburbs and quite blue right now. The red coasts are actually much bluer at this moment than they would be finally, with Ds there return ballots early.
The inner coastal plains/Black belt’s turnout is slow and looks very red. A lot of Dixiecrats, and Black voters are not into VBM that much.
So I don’t know much to say, other than that we have to see some in person voting to know the turnout pattern.
What is obx?
Outer banks?
That makes sense.