Possible in a strong Democratic year. It's an R+4 district. 2Q reports showed Kiley with a cash advantage of $2.6M to $1.3M over Jessica Morse. I'm waiting to see the 3Q numbers but it looks like Morse is fighting an uphill battle in lean-R terrain. All of the ratings orgs rate it as "Likely R."
Jessica Morse seems like a good candidate. She ran before in a different version of the district and was in the mid-40s. She is the underdog in the race, but I sent her a few bucks. If she wins, we will have had a great election.
I get the sense that he isn't especially unpopular for a purple-district Republican. He takes constituent service seriously and is much more of a 90s Republican than a MAGA type. He's a better fit for a relatively educated outer-suburban district than Trump is. If he loses, it will be because Trump dragged him down and because too many Democrats moved into Folsom and west Roseville, not because of any self-inflicted wounds.
I will be up in CA-27 starting next week to campaign for George Whitesides working to defeat Mike Garcia. "Mike Garcia" is just Californian for "Mike Johnson". I think this will be the year that Mike runs out of luck.
I'm glad your working this district. I believe it's the most likely of the SoCal seats to pickup, but the ads against Whitesides are brutal.
In SoCal, the Republicans are running ads tying crime, prop 36, anti Gascon and trying to tie other candidates to "the crime program" and crime from the border, even if statistics don't support it.
That's my district. The race is certainly heavily contested. Both of them are running a lot of ads, and I've actually seen more for Morse. Kiley is definitely acting worried, he's running quite a few negative ads (as is Morse).
The district is only Trump +2, and Kiley won by about 7 in 2022 when there was no statewide Dem campaign effort. I'd expect Kiley to win by a few points even if the district flips.
I think Morse would have had a much better chance this year if the CA Dems had not lost so many competitive races in 2022. The party's focus this year is on winning those seats (13, 22, 27, 45) as well as holding 47 and winning 41.
Hats off to Adam Schiff (who could coast in the senate race) for spending time and money in these competitive house districts. And I have heard he is going to, and spending in, CA-3.
I am very interested to see Kiley's and Morse's 3Q reports in a few days.
ca-03...can Kevin Kiley be beaten?
Possible in a strong Democratic year. It's an R+4 district. 2Q reports showed Kiley with a cash advantage of $2.6M to $1.3M over Jessica Morse. I'm waiting to see the 3Q numbers but it looks like Morse is fighting an uphill battle in lean-R terrain. All of the ratings orgs rate it as "Likely R."
Thanks for the info!
Jessica Morse seems like a good candidate. She ran before in a different version of the district and was in the mid-40s. She is the underdog in the race, but I sent her a few bucks. If she wins, we will have had a great election.
Is Kiley unpopular?
I get the sense that he isn't especially unpopular for a purple-district Republican. He takes constituent service seriously and is much more of a 90s Republican than a MAGA type. He's a better fit for a relatively educated outer-suburban district than Trump is. If he loses, it will be because Trump dragged him down and because too many Democrats moved into Folsom and west Roseville, not because of any self-inflicted wounds.
Here's to hoping he loses(seems like he's what I call a 'sane' Republican)
I don't even especially dislike him, I just won't vote for him.
If you Cali guys get the chance; maybe give us a ground update from your viewpoint on competitive congressional races?
I will be up in CA-27 starting next week to campaign for George Whitesides working to defeat Mike Garcia. "Mike Garcia" is just Californian for "Mike Johnson". I think this will be the year that Mike runs out of luck.
I'm glad your working this district. I believe it's the most likely of the SoCal seats to pickup, but the ads against Whitesides are brutal.
In SoCal, the Republicans are running ads tying crime, prop 36, anti Gascon and trying to tie other candidates to "the crime program" and crime from the border, even if statistics don't support it.
That's my district. The race is certainly heavily contested. Both of them are running a lot of ads, and I've actually seen more for Morse. Kiley is definitely acting worried, he's running quite a few negative ads (as is Morse).
The district is only Trump +2, and Kiley won by about 7 in 2022 when there was no statewide Dem campaign effort. I'd expect Kiley to win by a few points even if the district flips.
I think Morse would have had a much better chance this year if the CA Dems had not lost so many competitive races in 2022. The party's focus this year is on winning those seats (13, 22, 27, 45) as well as holding 47 and winning 41.
Hats off to Adam Schiff (who could coast in the senate race) for spending time and money in these competitive house districts. And I have heard he is going to, and spending in, CA-3.
I am very interested to see Kiley's and Morse's 3Q reports in a few days.