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sacman701's avatar

That's my district. The race is certainly heavily contested. Both of them are running a lot of ads, and I've actually seen more for Morse. Kiley is definitely acting worried, he's running quite a few negative ads (as is Morse).

The district is only Trump +2, and Kiley won by about 7 in 2022 when there was no statewide Dem campaign effort. I'd expect Kiley to win by a few points even if the district flips.

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hilltopper's avatar

I think Morse would have had a much better chance this year if the CA Dems had not lost so many competitive races in 2022. The party's focus this year is on winning those seats (13, 22, 27, 45) as well as holding 47 and winning 41.

Hats off to Adam Schiff (who could coast in the senate race) for spending time and money in these competitive house districts. And I have heard he is going to, and spending in, CA-3.

I am very interested to see Kiley's and Morse's 3Q reports in a few days.

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